August ARG numbers -- Dean 28% / Kerry 21% / Gephardt 10%

[Khephra]

New Poll Out This Morning!
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Bolstered by television advertising, Vermont Governor Howard Dean
has jumped into the lead in ballot preference and favorability among
likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic
Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New
Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean leads with 28% to 21% for
Senator John Kerry and 10% for Congressman Dick Gephardt. As for
candidate favorability, 63% of likely Democratic primary voters have
a favorable opinion of Dean, 61% have a favorable opinion of Kerry,
and 47% have a favorable opinion of Gephardt.

---

August ARG numbers
While still within the +/- 4% MOE (barely), Dean has taken the lead in the latest ARG poll out of New Hampshire. Story here: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Undecided: 32 (July: 30; June: 23)
Dean: 28 (July: 19; June: 18)
Kerry: 21 (July: 25; June: 28)
Gephardt: 10 (July: 10; June: 10)
Lieberman: 4 (July: 6; June: 11)
Edwards: 2(July: 2; June: 4)
Graham: 2 (July: 2; June: 2)
Clark: 1 (July: 2; June: 1)
Braun: 0 (July: 1; June: 1)
Kucinich: 0 (July: 1; June: 1)
Sharpton: 0 (July: 1; June: 1)

more...............

http://www.dailykos.com/

[Parche]

1. John Kerry

JOHN KERRY PRESIDENT 2004


(I also like Dean)

[chimpymustgo]

2. "Undecided" still kicking butt.

nt

[blm]

3. Finally...after nonstop press....

Dean is finally ahead. Sets the stage for some real political theater.

[Khephra]

5. I've said all along that's it's going to be Kerry Vs Dean till the end

Throw in maybe Clark...that poll doesn't reflect the jump he might should he actually join the race. I really don't know how he will play yet. He a wildcard at the moment.

Several other candidates won't quit until the very end, but I still think it's narrowed down to a Kerry/Dean race in terms of the established candidates.

I don't know...maybe Kucinich can surprise me. I'd like to see that happen, but I'm starting to doubt it a bit.

[Larkspur]

4. Great News!

I'm bringing a co-worker who lives in New Hampshire to meet Gov. Dean tomorrow night in Manchester, NH. He's undecided but I have talked to him briefly about Dean. I hope to have one more in Dean's column after tomorrows event.

[demnan]

6. Yeah I'm bringing people to see him in Falls Church, VA

all the publicity and the magazines have got people interested.

Funny though, there still are so many undecided's it could still go either way.

[LeftCoast]

7. Exciting stuff.

I hope ALL Democrats remember the 11th Commandment, after all, who wants to have to vote for a guy you shredded in the primaries?

[tedoll78]

8. Okay..

Time for Balki's Dance of Joy!

:bounce: :party:

Seriously, I still wonder if this poll (and others) consider in the calculations all of the new people he's bringing into the process. If up to 2/3 of the people attending his events and giving to his campaign are new to politics/voting, his margin of victory could be very underestimated here.

Even if his candidacy would raise turnout by just a mere 10% in the general election, almost all of that new turnout would end-up in the 'D' column. This could rival the 1994 "Republican Revolution" if Democratic turnout really went up that much.

This possibility really hasn't been considered in-depth, and I'm fascinated in seeing how he ends-up doing in the early early primaries. If he blows Gep out of the water in Iowa by adding new voters to the process, this is something to very seriously think about.

[Vis Numar]

9. How sweet it is

to be in the lead!

[CMT]

10. a nine-point jump for Dean in a month

from 19% to 28%.

[DrFunkenstein]

11. Good News For Dean and Kerry

For Dean this means legitimacy, but for Kerry it takes "frontrunner" pressure off of him while maintaining his favorability numbers. Its gonna be an exciting race!

[FightinNewDem]

12. ARG=Fraud

If you want to run around citing American Research Group's poll numbers, that's your right. But you should know that ARG's reputation in the New Hampshire political community is that of a laughing stock.

With the apparent exception of Manchester Union Leader political columnist John DiStaso, nearly everyone believes that Dick Bennett cooks his numbers.

Nobody has ever seen an ARG "boiler room", at least not of the scale needed to churn out the numbers he has been turning out lately; no credible media outlet wants to sponsor his poll; nobody ever seems to receive a call from an ARG pollster; and the numbers are very often wildly inaccurate, until Bennett has the opportunity to crib numbers from a more credible polling outfit such as RKM Communications or the UNH Survey Center.

I know for a fact that ARG's numbers in the 1990 US Senate race in NH were bought and paid for...show Bennett a dew dollars and amazing things happen.

Quoting any numbers from ARG shows a lack of knowledge of the inner workings of NH Democratic politics...

[burr]

13. I trust those numbers more than the lame advice of a DLC fan.

These polls are the source of alarm for people like Al From, Evan Bayh, and those who are seeking a Lieberman replacement...like Wesley Clark. They find it frightening that someone that they helped to buildup and create, Howard Dean, has chosen not to blindly follow their lead on a few of the issues. Even worse, their man Lieberman sinks lower with every new poll. Considering that the MOE is 4% one could argue that Joey really doesn't have any support in New Hampshire, other than a few campaign workers and personal friends.