Obama loss could doom Iowa caucuses

[question everything]

desmoinesregister.com

August 21, 2008

Obama loss could doom Iowa caucuses

DAVID YEPSEN


If Barack Obama loses the election, expect a new round of attacks on the Iowa caucuses. Once again, Iowa Democrats will have foisted a losing candidate on their party. Caucus critics will again use that fact to club the gatherings and argue for a change that diminishes Iowa's role.

The prospect of a McCain victory and an Obama defeat looms larger today than ever before in the campaign. A Zogby International Poll released Wednesday shows McCain taking the lead in the race. He's got 46 percent and Obama with 41 percent. In July, Obama led McCain, 47-40. The survey of 1,089 likely voters was taken Aug. 14 to 16 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points... The poll shows Obama has lost ground with Democrats, women, younger voters, Catholics and Southerners. Those are constituencies a Democrat needs to expand, not see contract. Other national surveys show Obama with a shrinking lead within the margin of error.

And who is responsible for Obama being the nominee? Well, his victory in Iowa back in January had a little something to do with that. One Iowa angle to a McCain victory and an Obama defeat is what it would mean to the future of the caucuses. Since Republicans set their rules for the 2012 selection process at their national convention in September, the November outcome isn't likely to change the GOPs process. One thing we know is that candidate John McCain, who bypassed the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and who put in an on-again, off-again effort here in 2008 - he finished fourth - doesn't owe Iowa's events a thing.

By contrast, Obama's Iowa victory was a big deal for him. Front-runner Hillary Clinton finished third and was sent reeling. Obama's victory galvanized support for him among party liberals and proved to African-Americans that one of their own could win with a largely white electorate, a fact that helped him in South Carolina's primary.

We saw something like that in 2004, when John Kerry broke out of the pack in Iowa and defeated Howard Dean. Richard Gephardt was knocked from the race. After Kerry lost in November and the scapegoating began, Iowa came in for criticism that it had elevated a loser. It drove some of the argument that Iowa simply had too much influence over the outcome and needed to be taken down a notch. Democrats in Michigan led the assault but failed to wrest Iowa from its position during party-rules fights.

(snip)

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080821/OPINION01/808210346/1166

[aquart]

1. Uh, perhaps a wee bit premature? And oddly gloating?

But yeah, the caucus system sucks.

[question everything]

8. Pretty much

and letting Iowa and New Hampshire - two states that have very little in common with the rest - be the first in the nation sucks, too.

I understand that there are several suggestions in the convention to, at least, change the caucuses.

[mth44sc]

2. He's not going to lose the election

next...

[Rageneau]

9. Neither will Gore or Kerry. How could they?

[Wapsie B]

3. If Obama were to lose the Iowa Caucases would be the least of our worries.

edit: Oh crap it's Dave Yepsen, political hack extrordinaire of the Dezzzzzzzzzz Moynzzzz Register. God, the media is trying its damndest to make this race look close.

[Gman]

4. The stinking carcass should be burned beyond recognition

and the ashes put on the next probe to Mars to be scattered somewhere midway there so they never return to what's left of this democracy.

[Wapsie B]

5. No argument from me.

I take the view of James Flansburg, another columnist in Des Moines who worked at the Register. In his words they are a farce. But then so is much of the primary season.

[opihimoimoi]

6. If he loses...fuck the World...get your guns and food/water stock...

fortify your home

prepare for the worst...Humanity will be in for a shock never seen for 80,000 years

[Peace Patriot]

7. The caucuses are NOT COUNTED by Diebold & brethren!

But I guess if our candidates have to be subjected to Diebold & brethren 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY vote counting, with virtually no audit/recount controls, in general elections, we might as well let them have full sway in (s)electing our party candidates in the primaries, and give up on democracy altogether.