NYT pg1, lead: Democrats Assess Rivals’ Strength in Swing States; Obama could do as well as Clinton

[DeepModem Mom]

Democrats Assess Rivals’ Strength in Swing States
By PATRICK HEALY
Published: April 24, 2008


(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on a flight to Washington on Tuesday after re-energizing her Democratic presidential primary campaign by beating Senator Barack Obama in Pennsylvania.

Reflecting on her victory in the Pennsylvania primary, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on Wednesday neatly summed up the chief political rationale of her enduring candidacy. “I won the states that we have to win — Ohio, now Pennsylvania,” Mrs. Clinton said on CNN about her successes over Senator Barack Obama, in one of her six appearances on morning news shows. “It’s very hard to imagine a Democrat getting to the White House without winning those states.”

Mrs. Clinton says her popularity among blue-collar workers, women and Hispanics makes her the candidate to beat Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the swing states that decide presidential races. Along with Ohio and Pennsylvania, she also cites her success in Michigan and Florida — even though the Democratic Party disqualified those contests, and Mr. Obama was not on the Michigan ballot — to claim an edge in crucial battlegrounds.

Yet for all of her primary night celebrations in the populous states, exit polling and independent political analysts offer evidence that Mr. Obama could do just as well as Mrs. Clinton among blocs of voters with whom he now runs behind. Obama advisers say he also appears well-positioned to win swing states and believe he would have a strong shot at winning traditional Republican states like Virginia.

According to surveys of Pennsylvania voters leaving the polls on Tuesday, Mr. Obama would draw majorities of support from lower-income voters and less-educated ones — just as Mrs. Clinton would against Mr. McCain, even though those voters have favored her over Mr. Obama in the primaries. And national polls suggest Mr. Obama would also do slightly better among groups that have gravitated to Republican in the past, like men, the more affluent and independents, while she would do slightly better among women....

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...the Pennsylvania exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for five television networks and The Associated Press, underscore a point that political analysts made on Wednesday: that state primary results do not necessarily translate into general election victories....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/us/politics/24clinton.html?ref=todayspaper

[OHdem10]

1. While the NYT is a great newspaper, their political advice

to candidates is often off base. As Rahum Emmanuel says, the NYT's
is not where I would go for political advice.