Prediction about the debates

[bluestateguy]

The CW here seems to be that Bush will refuse to debate, using some kind of lame-ass excuse. I think that is only likely if he is leading by double digits in the polls. Usually the candidate behind in the polls is the more eager candidate to debate, seeing as how it is the leader who has more at risk and more to lose. Nor is there any evidence that debate-dodging swings very many votes from one candidate to another, maybe 2-3 points topps. Hence, I predict that if Bush leads in the polls by 10+ points come October 1st he will resuse to debate, or simpy run out the clock on his challenger. If he leads only narrowly, or it's a dead heat, or he's behind then he will agree to debates of some sort. At that point a lot depends on how skillful the Democrats negotiating team will be.

[GalleryGod]

1. You Miss the Point,Big Blue! Even If We Kick His Ass-

the Media "Lead " will be something else.

Exhibit A: Debate #1-Matthews and others were thinking "W got his butt kicked and wiped by Gore" But then the RNC rescue point came out of Fax-Blast or Spin Alley: GORE's SIGH-ING...that was THAT!

[Moderator]

2. Locking.......

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DU Moderator