The election's is STILL gonna be CLOSE

[liberalpragmatist]

Trust me. The punditry is totally out of touch -- the same pundits that have long been saying that Bush is unbeatable, only to then see his approval ratings drop. He'll get a boost of about 10% (maybe even 20%) but the resistance will not end, and his approval ratings will drop back down.

The economy's in ok shape, but the job market is still a mixed bag, esp. in key states like W.Va., Ohio, Penn., Mich., and NH -- even places like Arkansas, Tennessee, and N.C. (all possibilities for us -- distant ones, but possibilities nonetheless).

Do you honestly know anybody who was inclined not to vote for Bush who's going to now b/c of Saddam's capture? I'm sure there are some, but that doesn't change the fundamentals of the war, and the country is so evenly split that while 1/2 the country will see this as vindication of Bush's leadership (the 1/2 that would vote for him anyway), the other half dislikes him as much as ever and will likely view it as a triumph for the U.S. soldiers in Iraq, NOT Bush.

1/2 the country has a visceral dislike of Bush. We start with 45%, as does he -- our margin would be that high even IF the economy was completely good -- that's how divided this country is. And with the health care crisis, poor education, rising college costs, plus Bush's poor environmental record, there's plenty of ammo in domestic policy.

The pundits are declaring that this makes Bush "unbeatable." Check out the article on the NYT website: Prof. Allan Lichtman of American University declares idiotically, "'My first reaction was, you might as well call off the election.'... For the president, Professor Lichtman said, the year had gone from one of mixed news 'to being all good news — a rising economy and the late, very positive turn in Iraq.'

'It's going to be very difficult for some time for the Democrats to mount an effective critique of the president," Professor Lichtman said.'"

(http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/14/international/middleeast/14CND-POLI.html?hp)

That's bullshit. The race is gonna be close. If this has any impact at all it'll be in the primary races, and Dean's so far ahead it may just slow him down, not cost him the nomination.

[liberalpragmatist]

1. Sorry mods...

lock one of these -- didn't mean to double post.