Can I try to put a myth to rest about Dean, Clark, and Bush?

[bhunt70]

I see a lot of people talking about Dean having the best chance to beat bush...I don't know, Im not a mind reader. My point here is not that Dean will/will not beat bush if he gets the nod.

There seems to be a "If Clark can't beat Dean then he sure as hell can't beat Bush"

I consider this statement bullshit.

In boxing, which I'm an avid fan of, there is an expression that "styles make fights". One boxer may be able to beat a guy who beat a guy who beat him ie. A beats B beats C beats A. This is a basic principle that you can't say that just because I can beat you, I can beat everyone you beat. make sense?

Clark has other weaknesses and strengths that would make his fight with bush inherently different than an election between Dean and Bush.
Dean may energize the democratic base, clark may bring in the military vote, dean may bring in skiers, clark may bring in guys who's name starts with P. As is also the case in boxing, the best offense isn't always the winner of the fight.

You have to see what everyone brings to the table (moderate republicans, swing votes, etc etc - not candidate specific) to be able to try and judge whether candidates A's chances agains bush is better than candidate B's chances, not how they stack up against each other in a pool of pretty much homogeneous group of people.

[BlueEyedSon]

1. Three words: Rock, paper, scissors.

[bhunt70]

2. you are exactly right.

That puts it very well...haha.

[glitch]

7. a lot of people don't get that paper covers rock

remember that Seinfeld episode where Kramer and his friend would only call rock? They thought it won over everything.
Good analogy for B/W thinking, I guess.

[Exultant Democracy]

17. What, but it's a rock. No way paper can beat a rock.

[Bucky]

24. I always understood that it was sandpaper. It wears the rock down

[sandnsea]

3. Very true

And then there's the boxer the rest dodge. The complete package who can bring in the democratic base and the military vote, John Kerry.

[bhunt70]

5. another good point.

boxing and politics, two things I could talk about all day.

[tsipple]

4. Well, Sure, But Two Things...

1. You have to win the nomination contest to get there. It's not a perfect system by any means, but it's the screening system we've got. And everybody knew the system going in, so if nothing else it's a test of political preparation, planning, and strategizing.

2. We have no clue what factors will be important in November, 2004. Maybe there's a new and deadly strain of rabies that sweeps across Idaho, and America turns to a medical doctor for help through the troubling times. Or maybe some weekend warrior drives a battletank through downtown St. Louis and does the city a favor by knocking over some buildings, so America turns to an Army General for solace. Or maybe the Michael Jackson-George W. Bush DVD, in which Jackson shows Bush how to beat it, is a runaway best seller.

Beats me.

I do know only one candidate has a realistic chance of going toe-to-toe in the TV air war with Bush this spring should he win the nomination. He's the only candidate with proven record-breaking fundraising and the ability to spend freely, not handicapped by limits.

That weighs heavily in my calculation, quite frankly. I don't see how any Democrat could withstand a Bush TV ad blitz if unable to answer.

[deminflorida]

8. If you don't have a closet full of skeletons to attack,

You might not need all that TV-AD Defense money,

Ya think?

[tsipple]

13. No, I Don't

Republicans will trot generals out on the airwaves to slam Clark. "He almost started World War III," and so on. Crap, of course, but unanswered crap.

Clark isn't a famous general. Since he's a blank slate, the Republicans would try to define him however they wished. Jesus Christ himself would get the same treatment. (Look at what Rove did to John McCain in 2000.)

You don't think this thing is a tea party, do you?

[KittyWampus]

22. Honestly, I Don't Think The GOP CAN "Trot Out Generals" To Slam Clark

because the military is supposed to be independant and nonpartisan.

Any General who steps out and does so will be compromising their OWN integrity.

Schwartkopf looked like an asshole- all he could do is reference a vague nonspecific smear from Shelton.
Clark says "I never met & don't even know Shwartzkofp...

And the vague comment from Shelton which has already started to backfire:

Why doesn't Shelton elaborate?
How did Clark get to 4 stars if he has character & integrity issues? One negative on resume requires 100 positives.
If NeoCons Military don't like Clark- that is actually a GOOD thing.

There are service people who were under Clark publically giving him GLOWING reviews... poeple can relate to his undrelings...

[tsipple]

25. They'll Shoot Them in Silhouette

Never underestimate your opponent.

[PVnRT]

6. Well, if Clark doesn't beat Dean

then the point is moot.

Yes, you are right, that styles may make the fight diffrerent, but if Clark can't beat Dean, then he won't have a chance to beat Bush. Unless, of course, everyone does the smart thing if that happens and put him on the ticket as VP.

[rucky]

14. If we had Instant Runoff elections instead of primaries

we wouldn't have this problem

just a thought

[Julien Sorel]

9. The Deanites must have a defense in place for when

their guy gets crushed. So this is it. Never mind the illogic of it. Another one might be to get Clark as a running mate. Then, they can try to say that Clark couldn't save Dean as a running mate, so he couldn't have done better against Bush.

You're dealing with people who, as a group, stopped thinking logically several motnhs ago, so trying to use reason now is a waste of time. Arguments like these are best saved until after the general election -- if, that is, the Deanites don't climb into a hole and hide for a while.

[HFishbine]

10. Good Point

I like the boxing analogy. One can extend it to football or basketball teams too.

For better or worse, there seem to be two schools of thought. One, that Bush will campaign on security/foreign policy and that we must fight him on his ground (could be a trap though if the economy cranks and Bush makes that the centerpiece.) The other is that dems need to quit allowing campaigns to be defined by the republicans; that our values and interests are worthy, noble, and will have appeal to voters if we just articulate them forcefully.

I think one's expectations for the substance of the campaign have a lot to do with which candidate one supports.

[mikehiggins]

19. body bags trump dow jones reports every time

I hate to sound cynical (well, actually I don't, really) but the fact remains that dead soldiers have a much bigger impact than paper profits that most people can't put into their wallets.

Just run an ad showing the rising body count next to the rising DOW.

That should make the point quite well.

Wars make the economy boom.

Our prosperity is being paid for in blood.

[CMT]

11. What have you been reading?

most of the posts I see is that Dean can't beat Bush--mostly spread by Clark supporters.

[Hep]

12. Well, I know this isn't what you mean

but if Clark can't beat Dean, he can't beat Bush because he won't have the chance!

I personally think just about ANY D can beat bush.

[mrgorth]

15. Unfortunately for you

you have to win the primaries first. We don't do coronations here ya know? Good luck.

[mikehiggins]

16. It remains to be seen if Dean will win the nomination

despite the polls and the cheerleading. I will be voting in a state which may still matter (Florida) in the final tally, no matter how it looks today.

What matters is the number of delegates each candidate has when he walks into the convention. Since the "winner take all" contests have been eliminated just winning a state doesn't mean total victory. Each candidate may have a handful or more of delegates by the convention and some of the most unlikely folks may turn out to be kingmakers in the end.

My bet? As I've said before, if Dean doesn't walk into the convention with the nomination sewed up I doubt he'll leave with it. First of all, with all his momentum and finances and polls he should have enough delegates to win on the first ballot. If he doesn't, then a majority of the Democratic voters would have decided they would prefer someone else, even if they are divided as to who that might be.

Failing to have sufficient delegate strength to take the nomination on the first ballot will mean that Dean's efforts have fallen short, despite all of the advantages his supporters point out at such great length.

Will Clark then win the day? Maybe, or maybe the party will turn to John Kerry after all. You can be sure he'll still be around. By my reckoning they are the three possiblities at the end of the road and I can support anyone of them without a qualm. I have no hope at all that anybody but Clark can win but who knows?

I've been wrong before. Maybe we can pull it out with someone else. I sure as hell hope so because if Bush gets back in all these arguments over sealed records and WWIII and stuff will become purely academic in a real hurry.

And if the Dean and Clark camps want to really make a difference, they should start thinking about how to organize nationally to take back Congress from the GOP before anymore Supreme Court justices leave their positions.

2004 has to only be the beginning if you want to reclaim this country from the Axis-of-Evil-Stupidity-and-Greed (AOESAG--you read it here first)

[tom_paine]

18. Good points, and I agree.

[andym]

21. Two different constituencies

The primaries and the General Election consist of two different constituencies.

The Democratic primary voters are a only subset of the GE voters.

So one group might elect someone very different from the other.

The most successful political primary strategy in recent Presidential politics was 1972, when Muskie was destoyed by Nixon dirty tricks in the primaries so Nixon could run against McGovern.

[Mr_Scarecrow]

20. If Clark can't beat Dean it means

most Democrats believe he can't beat Bush, which is essentially the same as he can't beat Bush if he can't beat Dean. Dean supporters want what everyone wants - the best candidate who can beat Bush. They simply believe Dean is the one who can do it and none of the other candidates can. I've looked at all the candidates fairly closely and I believe Dean is the one who can beat Bush. Every time he's been attacked he has a good answer. He's a straight talker and he's even keeled. He doesn't smirk at accusations or stupid questions like Gore used to, he doesn't freak out like Clark did at that Fox dick, and he represents the Fourth Way much like Clinton represented the Third Way in the '90's.

[shindig]

23. What Clark did to the Fox guy is the only way to beat Bush

That wasn't freaking out. That was the setting record straight, firmly, politely and effectively.