recent studies suggest that DP and homicide rates are correlated...

[sojourner]

In states WITH the dp, the homicide rate is HIGHER.

So much for the "deterrent" effect.

If you read the data and find that the studies don't show what I claim here, feel free to comment (I did a quick google and a cursory glance at the data). I'm a "searcher for truth", so your comments, if honest and supported by data, will only serve to enlighten.

http://www.benbest.com/lifeext/murder.html

http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/FaganTestimony.pdf

http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/article.php?scid=17&did=437


For those who would like NOT to have to comb through the data here are some highpoints (though considerably oversimplified):

States with highest homicide rate ALL have the DP:
STATE Homicide Rate

PER 100,000
(1) Louisiana 13.0
(2) Maryland 9.5
(3) Mississippi 9.3
(4) Nevada 8.8
(5) Arizona 7.9
(6) Georgia 7.6
(7) South Carolina 7.2
(8) California 6.8
(9) Tennessee 6.8
(10) Alabama 6.6


Homicides in STATES WITHOUT THE DEATH PENALTY

PER 100,000
Alaska 6.5
Hawaii 1.7
Iowa 1.6
Maine 1.2
Massachusetts 2.2
Michigan 6.4
Minnesota 2.2
North Dakota 1.9
Rhode Island 2.3
Vermont 2.6
West Virginia 3.7
Wisconsin 2.8

ALSO
- Dist. of Columbia

and finally, there's this graphic:

and a link to the page with MANY MORE good graphs.... http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/article.php?scid=12&did=168

[GrumpyGreg]

1. Sadly,we had three more in Boston tonight--no DP here.

[sojourner]

3. sad...but still the rates in MA are much below DP states.

look at some of the links, especially the one at the very bottom of the post. the "homicide gap" has been growing overall between DP and non-DP states over the past several years.

[MuseRider]

2. An additional tidbit

that probably does not reflect anything yet but in Kansas the death penalty was ruled unconstitutional - Dec 17, 2004.

[sojourner]

4. yep...and in NY. forgot the date (it's in the links)

[MuseRider]

6. I find this evidence

compelling, thanks for putting it together. It always helps to be able to defend your stance although for me it has little to do with statistics but these do help for those that need that kind of evidence.

[sojourner]

14. one thing is that it undercuts the "rationale" of the "true believers"...

and allows you to lay bare their naked bloodlust.

BTW, credit where credit is due...got the inspiration to do this search from Lorien and sfexpat2000

[MuseRider]

44. Credit to all three of you.

A wonderful post.

:kick:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

5. Basically the only argument FOR the death penalty is to satisfy a sense of

revenge. One either thinks this is an appropriate reason for the state to kill, or not.

The deterrent argument doesn't hold water.

[unpossibles]

7. The most common one I have heard is economic as well as revenge

that a lot of people don't want to waste their money on keeping someone alive who 'deserves' to be dead.

I used to have pretty mixed feelings on this, but as the years go by am pretty dead set against it.

[meow2u3]

8. Besides, many murderers have hidden death wishes

Administering the death penalty gives them their wish: a form of assisted suicide. In states without the DP, one can assume people are less likely to kill because they don't want to spend the rest of their lives in a cage, locked up like the animals they act like.

States with the DP not only have higher murder rates, they also have the most brutal, gruesome murders.

[Crazy Guggenheim]

16. That's right!! I think it turns them on!

[EFerrari]

18. Oh, no.

:rofl:

[Crazy Guggenheim]

21. What are you laughing at?

:popcorn:

[EFerrari]

22. Sorry!

:yoiks:

[sojourner]

10. me too...

but that argument about how much it costs to care for them is also nonsense. costs much more to kill them, especially with the appeals process, etc.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. It costs more from word go, a DP case runs on

average three times as much as a non DP case, even if a similar case in nature.

[sojourner]

34. know where we could find the data to support that?

i've heard it and you saw me repeat it here, but how 'bout the figures?

[ET Awful]

48. Except that's an invalid argument as well, since it costs more to

execute someone than it does to give them live in prison.

[sojourner]

13. yet it is put forward so often, I thought to see whether it is true...

When talking about it with others it soon becomes apparent that emotion not reason underlies their commitment to the DP. As you mention, I believe that the real reason for it is absolutely an effort to make somebody (anybody) pay.

[heidler1]

9. IMO If the government can and does kill it sets the example that it's OK .

[sojourner]

11. absolutely agree

[EFerrari]

12. "OK" in two directions. Ok to kill people in general and ok

for governments to kill their own citizens.

I see no upside here.

Thanks for the data, sojourner. I was wanting to see it. :hi:

[sojourner]

15. thanks for giving me the idea...you and Lorien!

[EFerrari]

17. It was Lorien's statement. And, there are the facts.

Amazing really, how, even as hard as we try, we lose track.

Thanks for putting that track back. lol

[EFerrari]

19. Can we get 3 more votes here? To thank sojourner for her work

and to let DU check out the data?

:kick:

[sojourner]

25. awww....thanks!

:hug:

[EFerrari]

26. Really, thank you. There's so much to do, when one of us

manages to get something done, it's a great gift!

:toast:

[LostInAnomie]

20. The DP has never worked as a specific or general deterrent.

It is a misunderstanding of the criminal mind by the general public that causes us to assume it is. People assume that murderers take the time to weigh the consequences and labor over the decision to murder someone. In reality murder usually is an impulsive act that has little if any forethought. How can you deter an act that takes place with almost no thought?

Murders that show signs of forethought show that the murderer has weighed the consequences and decided that their was little chance of them being caught. If they don't think they will be caught it means that they were not deterred.

The DP has always been about retribution. We think that by killing the killer we are leveling the cosmic scales. That somehow by the death of another we will make things right. In reality nothing is made better. The victims family will never be made whole again. The brief sense of justice that they may feel will fade away and they will once again have to face that their loved one is still gone.

That being said I am still ambivalent about the death penalty.

[EFerrari]

23. It's magical thinking. Like killing the harvest king to ensure

the harvest. We kill these prisoners to protect ourselves against harm that may come in the future.

Problem is, the death is very real as are the consequences.

(Please don't forget to nominate the thread so other DUers may see it.)

[sojourner]

24. i think your reasoning is spot on....

the thing that confounds me is how those who support the DP can tolerate the possibility of an innocent person being put to death.

the idea of "leveling the cosmic scales" would allow that the scales are leveled by the death of another, who ever that other may be. i think people like it better when the "other" seems like a bad person - then even if they might be innocent, the argument can be made that they aren't contributing to the good of society and thus we are okay (better, really) without them.

someone on Mike Malloy's show brought that point up. it really resonated with me. (the idea that "someone must pay" -- the fact that we measure the relative value of the lives is something that occurred to me after thinking on what he said)

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. and why I have been saying

For all who support it, lets go public with them. Every time I make this statement, strangely I get crickets on that side... wonder why.... Not raelly, but you know what I mean... we can kill them, as long as those who support the DP don't have to be bothered to ahem, watch somebody ACTUALLY DIE

[sojourner]

29. i think they'd like to watch if only they could do it in private...

they wouldn't like to be SEEN watching someone die.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. Given US History

they may watch once, maybe twice, but I am almost betting that if executions went public, the country would turn very fast.

It was well on its way to turning against it at the turn of the last century... coincidentally that is the time that Sparky emerged (you know more humane killing, and the impetus a couple very, and I mean VERY messy hangings) and moving the carriage of the sentences behind prison Walls.

Notice tonight I have taken this stance and almost no DP supporter has taken me on it... reason being, they probably are aware of what I am writing... taking them back out into the public sphere would make their stance almost impossible to justify.

[sojourner]

31. i take your point...

but i don't know about people anymore...

last few nights people here were so ghoulish...especially the DP "supporters". wish I'd found this data earlier cuz i'd like to have heard their responses.

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. Oh there are people who are violently

pro death penalty... some are even honest and tell you why: REVENGE... that is why I was not too shocked to see the blood lust.. but when the consequences play out they will not admit that any execution can further the cycle of violence, for that means taking personal responsibility

I used to be a medic, with the Red Cross in Tijuana... if you have ever seen the movie traffic you will have an idea of the environment I worked in... Mexico does not have a death penalty and trust me, there were situations where it would have been a death penalty case in the US, most definitely a death penalty case. In fact one in particular our emotions were telling us, let the bastard die, our sense of duty told us... do all you can to keep this bastard alive. Yes I held the life of a perp in my hands... and he lived to face the justice system...

Moerover, what most people in this country don't realize is that there was a series of very brutal murders over ten years ago in one of the central states. They involved kids, the oldest ten. They were killed and their bodies were mutilated in all kinds of pieces and their remains were found all over the country... and some said, we need the DP back.

That got a national conversation going in the newspapers and the media. Hell I knew the AG of Mexico at the time, and the national conversation was very mature. In the end they decided against it... not only because it has Zero deterrent value, but in the view of the AG and many other jurist the death penalty does something else... it brutalizes the society that practices it. The social cost was too great to risk. So they tried these guys, and they got the max they could give them. What they did was, there is no life in prison either, they lenthened the max from forty years to fifty... and if you have seen any of those jails, you could say it is a death warrant... but that is neither here or there, the point is a country many believe to be inferior, had that conversation over the DP.

That is the kind of conversation that will not happen here UNTIL, and I mean UNTIL people overcome their almost biblical sense of revenge... but our love of the death penalty is also connected to other parts of the society. I will contend one reason we cannot have a rational debate on national health care is truly we are married to revenge and we have been brutalized. We don't value life, now you do, and I do.. I am talking about the society in general.

[EFerrari]

32. You're right of course. And this is an important point. n/t

[Just Me]

52. Well, since the DP is a human rights violation to begin with,...

,...I suppose the additional violation of making it public is arguably justified for purposes of forcing us to face our willingness to support the DP. Of course, such a public display would be repugnant to me but I am a staunch anti-DP advocate. Those who are pro-DP should regularly witness what they advocate IMHO.

[sojourner]

65. i just don't trust that they won't make it more of a circus...

and get their kicks out of it too. i suspect they get a "charge" out of violence and sadly that seeing it won't change that. did it change the romans' lust for bloodletting?

[nadinbrzezinski]

68. That is not the point

expect that fully... the point is notice the crickets when this is proposed from the DP side? It tells me, highly sugests it actually, that the suport for the DP is truly skin deep. If they were commited they would be going, YEAH that is a hell of an idea!

Oh and I will be formulating a letter to my state reps proposing they take it out from behind prison walls... if the support is that deep... people will continue to support it, or perchance, people who THINK they support it, truly don't have the stomach and have no problem with it as long as it is carried out in secret. There is a reason why it was moved behind closed walls during the early part of the last century, and it was precisely a general revultion that was developing across the land

[sojourner]

73. you might have to keep reminding me of this...

because you're making a really good point. but i keep having trouble with the idea of having to endure these people openly (even more than they do now) the deaths of other humans - now as a real spectacle. mind, i don't disagree with you. but something in my pea-sized brain forgets that what you suggest WOULD LIKELY be the outcome. don't have that much faith in the American people. hate admitting to that but there it is.

[Lorien]

35. This was the topic of discussion one day in my psychology class

in college in the 1980s.The data was the same then-our professor even showed us a chart of the homicide rates in states before and after the death penalty was reinstated, and the homicide/ violent crime rates were consistently higher when the DP was a possibility for the criminal. This lead to a discussion of why that was the case ("Perhaps murderers are really suicidal and lack the courage to destroy themselves"?) and why states continue to use the Death Penalty when it consistently drives up homicide rates. The conclusion on that was that it satisfies the publics emotional need for vengeance and gives them a false sense of security while actually doing them far more harm than good.

[sojourner]

42. hi lorien! thanks for coming by!

I'd like for more folks to see this data. I swear so many folks - everywhere - are convinced (by whom or what I do not know) that the DP has a deterrent effect. That's why when you mentioned hearing that study in college I wanted to see if there were similar studies. Little did I expect to find so much! Thanks for providing the impetus for me to check on the research!

BTW, I teach Psychology! But have never ever looked at the DP....well, until now!

[johnnyburma]

36. Are you suggesting that if DP states abolish the DP

their homicide rates will decline?

[TahitiNut]

37. That's been the experience of European countries that abolished the DP.

Of course, they may be a different species, right? :eyes:

[sojourner]

39. that's the prevailing sentiment in US, thesedays isn't it!

[TahitiNut]

49. I sometimes wonder, between sleeping and wakening, whether we're ..

... seeing an evolutionary "leap forward" (backward?) akin to the Neaderthal-to-Cro-Magnon jump. (As I drag my knuckles over my keyboard.)

[G_j]

75. grunt - nt

[sojourner]

38. indeed, i am

when the dp was reinstated, the homicide rates for DP and non-DP states differed by .4 --- in 2003, they differed by .44

it may be oversimplified, but it would appear that when the DP was abolished, over time the homicide rate leveled out across the states (over time) -- when it was brought back, gradually the homicide rates in dp states has outpaced that in non dp states.

[sojourner]

40. and though I said I am suggesting this,

I just wanted to point out that it is the research that strongly suggests this, not just me.

[Inland]

57. All one has to say is that they won't go up, considering

all the problems with the death penalty, starting with the cost needed to operate a creaky, faulty system.

If they go down, well, that's just gravy.

[Just Me]

41. Yup. There is no logical basis for the DP.

There is no ethical basis, either (committing murder for a murder).

The only remaining basis is revenge.

Is that what we advance: the gut emotion associated with revenge?

I guess so. x(

[sojourner]

67. agreed

[Cleita]

43. Kick

:kick:

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

45. interesting

As someone who doesn't believe in the DP, these stats show that it is obviously NOT a deterant.

[EFerrari]

46. kick

[Unreal Player]

47. Where's DC stats?

It says "Also - Dist. of Columbia" but no stat?

[sojourner]

63. sorry, my bad.......click on the links and you can find the data methinks

[nofurylike]

50. very important facts! thank you for posting this, sojourner! eom

[nofurylike]

51. kick

[nofurylike]

53. these facts are important in this debate. kick

[yurbud]

54. Texas isn't number one in murders? They need to catch up

[demobabe]

55. interesting

what is also interesting about that chart is to look at who was president during the years shown...

as the country did better economically and financially, there were fewer murders.

i'd like to see the data for the years since 2000 - what do you want to bet those numbers are probably on the rise?

another big republican thing is privatized prisons - another way to make money off misfortune, and the more criminals we have, the more money the private prison companies can make.

keeping the DP helps them out. more crime, more criminals.

[KittyWampus]

56. Cause-Effect. States that allow DP have citizens with little empathy or

compassion... thus more violent deviant behavior.

The higher murder rate reflects a more violent timbre to entire society... not just criminal offenders.

When a state collectively says NO to DP, they've manifested an outward sign of a collective state of peace and understanding.

[sojourner]

66. you could be right

[ninkasi]

58. I wonder if religious fundamentalism

has any effect? I notice that among the top 10 states in number of homicides, over half are in the South. I live in Texas, myself, and thought I'd see Texas on the list. I know that the Bible Belt has more divorces, and maybe all of the Old Testament emphasis has something to do with murder rates. There's a lot of bloodshed and vengeance in the OT, and a lot of wrath and violence.

Maybe it would be better for those who identify themselves as Christians to read a bit more of what Jesus preached, and take to heart the admonitions to feed the hungry, feed the poor, and love your fellow man. I don't know, but it all seems to fit together, the anger, the rigid thinking, the violence, the lust for revenge...it seems to result in poverty, divorce, and homicide.

I'm not bashing Christians, because I was raised as a Methodist, but it was a very laid back, gentle kind of religion, lots of emphasis on love and forgiveness, helping others, and doing the right thing out of love. We were taught that since Jesus asked us to love and forgive each other, we could best worship him by following his words. So...maybe the fire and brimstone and screaming about vengeance isn't such a good idea, and leads to angry, unforgiving people. Maybe there's a better way for society to get along.

[Just Me]

60. The anger, guilt and vengefulness is disturbing, huh.

I'm sure radical fundamentalism, irrespective of the particular religion, has much to do with the increased violence and tendency to forgo human rights issues.

[sojourner]

71. me too...though I can't draw a causal link...

i think because all fundamentalism is a return to archaic religious forms.

[sojourner]

69. Texas is up there. Just didn't make the top ten.

Someone suggested that the "gentlemanly culture of honor" that pervades the South accounts for it...

But the most convincing argument is that when DP re-established, the difference in rate of homicides between the pro- vs anti- DP states was a mere .4 --- 10 years later, that difference is a whopping 44 (and it climbs annually).

[Wind Dancer]

59. Thanks to everyone for this wealth of information.

Amnesty International is another good source for worldwide statistics.

0. Execution of the innocent
As long as the death penalty is maintained, the risk of executing the innocent can never be eliminated.

Since 1973, 122 prisoners have been released in the USA after evidence emerged of their innocence of the crimes for which they were sentenced to death. There were six such cases in 2004 and three up to December 2005. Some prisoners had come close to execution after spending many years under sentence of death. Recurring features in their cases include prosecutorial or police misconduct; the use of unreliable witness testimony, physical evidence, or confessions; and inadequate defence representation. Other US prisoners have gone to their deaths despite serious doubts over their guilt.

The then Governor of the US state of Illinois, George Ryan, declared a moratorium on executions in January 2000. His decision followed the exoneration of the 13th death row prisoner found to have been wrongfully convicted in the state since the USA reinstated the death penalty in 1977. During the same period, 12 other Illinois prisoners had been executed. In January 2003 Governor Ryan pardoned four death row prisoners and commuted all 167 other death sentences in Illinois.

11. The death penalty in the USA

* 59 prisoners were executed in the USA in 2004, bringing the year-end total to 944 executed since the use of the death penalty was resumed in 1977.
* Over 3,400 prisoners were under sentence of death as of 1 January 2005.
* 38 of the 50 US states provide for the death penalty in law. The death penalty is also provided under US federal military and civilian law.http://web.amnesty.org/pages/deathpenalty-facts-eng

More:

Death Sentences and Executions in 2004

During 2004, at least 3,797 people were executed in 25 countries. At least 7,395 people were sentenced to death in 64 countries. These figures include only cases known to Amnesty International; the true figures were certainly higher.

Executions are known to have been carried out in the following countries in 2004:

AFGHANISTAN, BANGLADESH, BELARUS, CHINA, EGYPT, INDIA, INDONESIA, IRAN, JAPAN, JORDAN, KOREA (NORTH), KUWAIT, LEBANON, PAKISTAN, SAUDI ARABIA, SINGAPORE, SOMALIA, SUDAN, SYRIA, TAIWAN, TAJIKISTAN, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, UZBEKISTAN, VIET NAM, YEMEN http://web.amnesty.org/pages/deathpenalty-sentences-eng

http://web.amnesty.org/pages/deathpenalty-index-eng

[sojourner]

72. thanks for sharing these great links!

[Coexist]

61. kicking due to shameless promotion

;-)

[sojourner]

64. grin and tks

[stop the bleeding]

62. K&R

[sojourner]

70. thanks!

[Jim__]

74. I disagree with your statement: So much for the "deterrent" effect.

It's not that I think the death penalty has a deterrent effect on murder. My strong belief is that it does not. But, a positive correlation between high homicide rates and states with the death penalty is hardly convincing evidence. To back up my claim that this is not convincing evidence, I refer you to a part of one of the articles that you cited:

Recent studies claiming that executions reduce murders have fueled the revival of
deterrence as a rationale to expand the use of capital punishment. Such strong claims are
not unusual in either the social or natural sciences, but like nearly all claims of strong
causal effects from any social or legal intervention, the claims of a “new deterrence” fall
apart under close scrutiny. These new studies are fraught with technical and conceptual
errors: inappropriate methods of statistical analysis, failures to consider all the relevant
factors that drive murder rates, missing data on key variables in key states, the tyranny of
a few outlier states and years, and the absence of any direct test of deterrence. These
studies fail to reach the demanding standards of social science to make such strong
claims, standards such as replication and basic comparisons with other scenarios. Some
simple examples and contrasts, including a careful analysis of the experience in New
York State compared to others, lead to a rejection of the idea that either death sentences
or executions deter murder. From http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/FaganTestimony.pdf

I agree with the author's claims about the weakness of the cited studies; but, in this article he offers nothing to support his claim that we can reject the idea.

The difficulty is the same difficulty that you run into when you try to analyze any real world system, especially one that is dependent on human behavior. There are too many variables, and there is no way to run a controlled experiment (the author himself cites these problems with the studies he is debunking; but these same problems are going to apply to just about any attempt to statistically study this problem; i.e it's extremely difficult to reach any conclusion).

Direct evidence of this difficulty can be found in the article that you cited by Ben Best, Death by Murder; (I can't get the graph to print here)

And this description of the graph: From the gangland era of the 1930s to 1963 there was a gradual decline in both murders & executions in the United States. In 1963 the US Supreme Court imposed rules on confessions & searches that accompanied a popular sentiment increasingly opposed to capital punishment -- and in 1972 struck down capital punishment laws as being "arbitrary and capricious". There were no executions in the United States between 1967 and 1977. Murder rates soared to levels not seen since the 1930s and remained at that level until the late 1970s when sentiment changed and execution began to be increasingly reinstated. As executions rose, the murder rate declined through the 1990s. In 2002 the Supreme Court ruled that the mentally retarded cannot be executed and that only juries can impose the death penalty -- two rulings that affected nearly a quarter of death-row inmates. (See The Death Penalty in the U.S. for a more detailed history.)

From about 1930 through 1960, both executions and the murder rate dropped.But, then, from 1960 through 1970, while the number of executionsd dropped, the murder rate rose. Finally, from 1990 through 2000, as the number of executions rose, the murder rate dropped.

It is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to factor out the noise in the data and find the fraction of the murder rate that is attributable to the death penalty - if there even is such a fraction.

[sojourner]

78. same problems with research that you cite exist in regard to many social

problems. while i'm aware of the weaknesses, i am also impressed by the data that looks at the homicide rate in relationship to whether the DP is used in a state or it is not....

As executions rose, states without the death penalty fared much better than states with the death penalty in reducing their murder rates. The gap between the murder rate in death penalty states and the non-death penalty states grew larger (as shown in Chart II). In 1990, the murder rates in these two groups were 4% apart. By 2000, the murder rate in the death penalty states was 35% higher than the rate in states without the death penalty. In 2001, the gap between non-death penalty states and states with the death penalty again grew, reaching 37%. For 2002, the number stands at 36%. http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/article.php?scid=12&did=168

i wouldn't care to suggest that the DP causes murder. but i do feel comfortable saying that it is NOT A DETERRENT, given the data.

that's my whole point. thanks for taking the time to analyze the studies as carefully as you did.

[G_j]

76. thanx

[QC]

77. Correlation and causation are two very different things.

The murder rate increases in the summer. Ice cream consumption increases in the summer. Would anyone seriously argue that ice cream causes murder? Or that murder increases people's appetite for ice cream? Of course not.

[sojourner]

79. of this i am aware. thanx.

but i don't think i made a causal link. what i did say is that the DP does not deter homicide.

[EFerrari]

80. kick

[NMDemDist2]

81. the news today said Phoenix may be the highest per capita murder rate

in the nation this year :cry:

I gotta get out of this valley.....

[BrklynLiberal]

82. Kicked and recommended and bookmarked..