on CNN they are finally admitting Bird Flu will shut down entire country.

[sam sarrha]

i have been raving since this started that when it hits there will be no trucks running to cary food, gas or anything, little or NO electrical power, water, sewage.. cause too many people will be sick. and This will quickly turn into Mad Max an the Thunder Dome and it will be Rove strapped on the back of Dubya, ... Conan the Barbarian will cut and run from what is going to happen..

while Bu$h jerks off in the White House to thoughts of being a WAR PRESIDENT

[TallahasseeGrannie]

1. Okay, that's it.

I'm stocking up. Everybody laughed at me with Y2K and they were right. Maybe I was just too early.

I wonder how long we'll be out of commission?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

2. Some estimates are for as long as 18 months.

[lectrobyte]

3. Apocolypso Now!

[xultar]

12. No, it's Party NOW.... Apocalypso later!

:cheers:

[lectrobyte]

13. You dance the Apocolypso at the party. The Apocolypse is much later.

[xultar]

30. I thought the The Apocolypse was after you'd stripped nekkid and

run through the party announcing that you'd like to give it to everyone for free.

[Loonman]

4. I've got plenty of MREs

Weapons, ammo, medical supplies, extra clothing, tools.

[MrMonk]

37. I've got some frozen dinners and tube of cake icing.

[SpiralHawk]

53. MMM! If the flu hits the fan, I hope you plan to share your cake icing

Might as well go to Valhalla with frosting on our lips.

[DKStreet]

5. An issue that hasn't even been addressed

What happens to all the orphans and the suddenly widowed--deep impact.

[donheld]

27. Welcome to DKStreet

:hi:

[graywarrior]

6. When are we expecting this? Jan? Feb? Mar? April?

[leftchick]

33. 2030

I think?

[knitter4democracy]

59. We don't know.

Influenza season tends to be from November to April or so (worst in January in February), but it might (hopefully) take a few more years to incubate and spread more easily from person to person.

[MemphisTiger]

7. Does everybody still have their duct tape and plastic

from the previous fearmongering threats?

[walldude]

8. Gimme a fucking break...

The sky is falling, the sky is falling. You have been raving about "when it hits". Don't you mean "if it hits"? You know I was slightly worried about this "bird flu" thing till I did what any good progressive does. I followed the money. And lo and behold it landed right in Rumsfeld's lap. Big fucking suprise. I believe the odds of Bush pulling out of Iraq are better than me getting some disease from a bird. Some disease that was never a threat until things started to turn bad for the neo-cons.

[babsbunny]

10. It is another scare tactic

from the Bush administration!

[lectrobyte]

18. Exactly...

There are a lot of "what if" scenarios. Do not be afraid. They use your fear to control you. Yes, bird flu could kill us all, but you could slip in the shower, or be careless with the fork fishing that bagel out of the toaster...

[Swamp Rat]

32. HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Vincardog]

9. OK now I am SKIRED. The FEAR has finally made it through to me

Just exactly how much money will we have to spend for which crooked RePigLickin's company for a cure that will not work? My God people the Avian Flu might or might not ever mutate to be passed from person to person. More people die from Dog attacks in the USA every year than the Avian Flu has killed so far in the Whole WORLD.

In case you did not get the memo the Death Cult that hijacked our country in 2000 RULES BY FEAR. The Best cure is to not be afraid.

[graywarrior]

11. When someone in this country actually gets it, I'll be concerned.

Not worried, not freaked out, not paralyzed with fear. Just concerned. Then, and only then, will I take steps to w.h.a.t.e.v.e.r.

[Newsjock]

17. Not just that, but when *lots* of someones get it

Consider how many tens of thousands die each year of common influenza.

The first time we get 20 "bird flu" deaths reported, however, it's going to be holly hell panic on CNN, MSNBC, and Fox, 24/7.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

21. But when you think about it..

how will we know if it REALLY gets here? Be pretty easy to make up a couple of isolated cases.

Oh geez, now I need a tin hat.

[knitter4democracy]

60. Remember, the medical community is watching it carefully.

It's not the government in charge of this but instead all of the infectious disease docs and primary docs in the country keeping an eye out for it. Yes, the CDC is majorly involved, but WHO is watching it, too.

They've been watching for this for years. I don't know why the press picked it up this year, but it's been a major thing in the medical community for decades. It's not that the doctors are wanting to scare everyone, it's that they're scared themselves. I know our medical system in our small city won't be able to handle anything on that level, and that's why everyone's researching it, working on it, and developing plans for it.

[Blue_In_AK]

14. I suppose I should be worrying about all those migrating birds

heading to Alaska in the spring ... but I'm not. I just can't seem to get myself worked up over this one. Maybe I've become too lackadaisical after all the other "scares" failed to materialize. They've cried "wolf" one too many times for me. I survived Hong Kong flu in 1968 -- if I get this one, I'll probably tough it out again, and if not -- oh well, everybody has to die sometime.

[mattclearing]

15. Amen. n/t

[jim3775]

16. Yes we must all prepare for Y2K

THE ELECTRICITY WILL STOP BECAUSE OF Y2K!!!
THE WATER PUMPS WILL STOP BECAUSE OF Y2K!!!
TRANSPORTATION WILL CEASE BECAUSE OF Y2K!!!

[jim3775]

19. I actually saw the bird flu disaster preparedness stats for my city

of about 120,000.

Projected number of deaths: 100

Number of people who die because of the non bird-flu: about the same

[Strelnikov_]

20. I Don't Think That Many Will have To Get Sick

to effect a semi-collapse. My worry has always been the societal impacts of super flu.

I think infrastructure (energy/water) will keep running since the workers supporting these tasks can be inoculated/isolated somewhat so that they will feel comfortable enough with going to work. Food shipping will be somewhat more problematic, but the workers could be 'protected' similarly.

A wild card for me is food production. Will the plants that manufacture and package most of the food we eat be secure considering they are staffed by masses of low wage workers? Also, will grocery stores be staffed, and therefore open?

I feel the progressive collapse will come, however, from all of the other people in our 'service' economy losing their jobs/income. Fairly quickly any business that depends on people congregating will be closing up shop. This will probably be followed most of the rest of us being laid off, and in a short time destitute, since most have no savings.

Once put under, can an economy based on trading real estate and stocks be revived?

And will a ruling class so enamored with Randian concepts be willing to implement the measures reminiscent of a planned economy that will be required?

Like peak oil, I am a Doomer not because of the challenges posed, but because of the lack of leadership that will probably occur.

[purji]

22. 36,000 people die from regular flu every year

I'm not too concerned about something that "might" happen.
Bird flu has killed less than 100 people in five years.

[knitter4democracy]

61. That's because it hasn't mutated enough yet.

The key is the easy human to human transmission, and it hasn't developed that yet.

You'd be more worried about influenza if you had to deal with it on a daily basis, like my hubby, who's an internist. He's lost patients to the usual strains, and he knows we are not prepared for a local epidemic with our system as it is. Our small hospital's unit is full on a regular day, so we won't have the resources for the very sick patients when H5N1 hits here.

[knitter4democracy]

23. The problem is huge.

The thing is, we don't know when it'll mutate or exactly how deadly it'll be. The latest research on the 1918 flu is that it was entirely avian, something we don't normally see (normally takes going through pigs to make the jump to humans). That's why H5N1 has been scaring the medical community--if it's like the 1918 flu, and it looks like it is, then we could be very screwed.

My hubby's an internist, and he loses sleep some nights over this and has for years. He's very concerned about our community and how we already don't have enough medical resources, let alone enough for a pandemic. There's a nasty intestinal virus closing down schools in our area and going around like wildfire, and we have been lucky so far that it hasn't taxed the system too much (not many going to the hospital with it so far). Take the usual viruses we have to deal with during flu season, the usual diabetes and heart disease problems, and we won't have enough beds or enough staff for a flu epidemic or pandemic.

[Vincardog]

24. Well Kitter if your hubby is loosing sleep over this he is probably in

the wrong line of work. H5N1 might mutate to make the jump for human to human contagion but a big Meteor MIGHT hit the earth too. H5N1 might be on it's last legs as well. The current fuss about it is just more propaganda by the radical right to scare us. Don't buy it.

[knitter4democracy]

26. Thanks for the insight.

After all those years of college, med school, and residency, he's in the wrong line of work because he's trying to work out how to keep the system going in a pandemic? Ummmmm . . . that's kind of backwards thinking, isn't it?

Would you rather he ignore a major problem we all know will come and keep his head in the sand or do what he can to think through the problem, talk with the other internists in town, and come up with a good solution?

I've been reading about "the current fuss" in his med journals ever since he started med school in 1996. It's nothing new, and in fact, it just now getting the serious attention the infectious disease guys have been trying to get it for years. I don't know a single doctor not worried about it, and I think they know a bit more about it than you seem to.

[Vincardog]

29. OK my bad. He should plan and prepare for the worst but hope for the best,

What he should not do is loose sleep over a possibility.

[knitter4democracy]

41. It's the only thing he does most of the time.

The only other times I've seen him stay up and mull over something are patients who just aren't getting better no matter what he tries (even with a specialist helping). Normally, no one can go to sleep faster than my hubby (even in the middle of a word in a sentence--he's done it many times), and he learned in residency how to drop off no matter what chaos is going on around him, but that one gets to him sometimes.

[Enraged_Ape]

45. Your hubby's far more likely to die in a car wreck tomorrow...

on the way to work than die of the avian flu.

But don't tell him that. After so many sleepless nights worrying about flu, he'll probably just give up and decide to end it all.

[knitter4democracy]

50. Wow. You're so nice!

I mean, God forbid you think of how the doctors are trying to deal with it and respond politely or considerately. :eyes:

It's not him he worries about as much as his older, poorer patient population. I guess worrying about his patients and trying his best to ward off a bad thing coming to them makes him a horrible doctor or something. :sarcasm:

[Enraged_Ape]

66. I think your husband's probably a great doctor

If not somebody who has no idea how badly this administration lives off of BLATANT FEAR to promote its goals.

You see, it's very important to this administration that you and your husband remain VERY, VERY AFRAID. WE ARE ALL SERIOUSLY IMPERILED BY AVIAN FLU. This HORRIBLE disease will bring this country to its KNEES. WESTERN CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT WILL CEASE TO EXIST, and you will die a HORRIBLE, BLOODY, PAINFUL, GASPING DEATH. The United States itself will be reduced to little more than isolated bands of TRIBAL BRAIN-EATING PRIMATES who will go from CAMPSITE to CAMPSITE looking for SUSTENANCE at whatever cost.

Just last night I talked to my own internal medicine specialist about this "terrible future tragedy which will render this country to ruins". Is he concerned about the avian flu in the slightest? No. Are you suggesting that your husband is a better doctor than mine? I hope not. Am I suggesting that my internist is better than yours? No. All I'm saying is: when you're dealing with a power structure that lives and breathes ABJECT FEAR, be more than a little skeptical, as am I. In the meantime, WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE, and most of the time, we will have no say over when.

[knitter4democracy]

67. I wouldn't suggest such a thing.

I don't know your doctor, and you don't know my hubby or the infectious disease specialist he knows. I cannot base a doctor's worth on the statement he gives on H5N1 or any one thing.

Look, this has been a fear of the medical community for far longer than the media or administration have known about it. I could give a rat's ass that they're fear-mongering about H5N1, in all honesty. Just because they picked a rational thing to be afraid of and then hyped it to all get-out doesn't mean that it's not bad.

There were experts scared of the terrorists hijacking planes and using them as bombs long before 9/11. People dismissed the idea over and over again, saying it was a fear tactic, not worth the attention and concern. Experts said over and over again that the levies in N.O. wouldn't survive a big storm, but it was dismissed as a problem that might never happen.

Just because experts are saying this is a problem, don't dismiss it as another thing to ignore and never prepare for. My husband would be on the front lines of the epidemic, so yeah, he's worried about it. He's been worried about it for years, ever since studying about it in med school--long before the neocons or administration were in power.

[renate]

69. I don't get why people are so "it'll never happen"

Thank goodness for people like your husband who are worrying about this.

We mock BushCo for ignoring "Bin Laden determined to attack U.S.," but preparing for a bird flu pandemic, which the WHO and other responsible organizations are predicting, is silly? I really don't understand why people are so resistant to the idea that the worst-case scenario might come true. Well, no, I do understand, since Rumsfeld stands to profit from production of Tamiflu, and Bush stands to benefit from keeping the population afraid (although post-Katrina that's probably not true any more), so skepticism is understandable. But why not concede that the flu virus DOES mutate all the time and that IF it did mutate to make human-to-human transmission easy, it could be devastating?

[knitter4democracy]

70. I don't get it, either.

Just because they managed to pick a legitimate issue to work on and prepare for doesn't mean they're wrong. That NEJM article I linked downthread had a great point that, if we're lucky, we'll have enough time to prepare for it but we can't count on it.

[Protagoras]

25. Do we have any Epidemiologist around here?

I'm feeling so tired of just reading the fear mongering from the WH. Do we have anyone out there actually assessing this threat relative to any other mutating disease?

[knitter4democracy]

28. Just a doctor's wife's research on New England Journal's site.

Here's a good article assessing the risks from May 5, 2005: http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839

I know it's something you have to subscribe to, so here are some excerpts.

First of all, here's the bio blurb on the author: "Dr. Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, the associate director of the National Center for Food Protection and Defense, and a professor of public health at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis." In other words, he most likely knows what he's talking about, as those aren't easy jobs to get.

Snip

"Today, public health experts and infectious-disease scientists do not know whether H5N1 avian influenzavirus threatens an imminent pandemic. Most indications, however, suggest that it is just a matter of time: witness the increasing number of H5N1 infections in humans and animals, the documentation of additional small clusters of cases suggestive of near misses with respect to sustained human-to-human transmission, the ongoing genetic changes in the H5N1 Z genotype that have increased its pathogenicity, and the existence in Asia of a genetic-reassortment laboratory — the mix of an unprecedented number of people, pigs, and poultry."

Snip

"Urgent planning efforts are required to ensure that we have the syringes and other essential equipment, as well as the workforce, for effective delivery. Finally, a detailed plan for vaccine allocation will be needed — before the crisis, not during it.

What if the pandemic were 10 years away and we embarked today on a worldwide influenza Manhattan Project aimed at producing and delivering a pandemic vaccine for everyone in the world soon after the onset of sustained human-to-human transmission? In this scenario, we just might make a real difference.

The current system of producing and distributing influenza vaccine is broken, both technically and financially. The belief that we can greatly advance manufacturing technology and expand capacity in the normal course of increasing our annual vaccination coverage is flawed. At our current pace, it will take generations for meaningful advances to be made. Our goal should be to develop a new cell-culture–based vaccine that includes antigens that are present in all subtypes of influenzavirus, that do not change from year to year, and that can be made available to the entire world population. We need an international approach to public funding that will pay for the excess production capacity required during a pandemic."

This is the kind of stuff the doctors are reading, and that's why they have been worried about this for years. This is not new, and it is only now getting the attention it deserves to get us fully prepared for any pandemic, let alone H5N1.

[bmbmd]

46. Thanks, Knitter, for bringing up some salient points.

You know, folks on this board are quick to make fun of creationists and home schoolers and points of view they determine to be "anti-science", but when you bring up hard science and hard medical facts, you have a hard time finding an audience. I am an internist also, and lost family members not only in the epidemic of 1918, but also from the Von Economo's encephalitis which followed decades after as a late sequellae. I have great respect, if not fear, for the ravages a bird flu epidemic. I wish you and your husband well as you try to educate your patients (and this board).

[knitter4democracy]

49. Hi!

:hi:

My hubby almost went into ID, so he has a very healthy respect and fear of H5N1. I can't imagine what it was like for the doctors to practice in 1918 and afterwards. Yes, we have better meds now, but this sucker's so fast and furious that it's still lethal with all the resources we have to fight it today.

I may not be a doctor, but I read his journals. ;) I sometimes wonder if I could've conquered my fears of chemistry and needles and gone into medicine, but I think the better one of the two of us is in it. Hubby's quite good, and I'm very proud (can't you tell? :D ).

We need more internists here at DU. Just ignore the doctor bashing threads. Those get a bit much, although I do my best to fight the negative stereotypes there.

Btw, Hubby's practice is hiring, just in case you want to check out SW Michigan. :D

[AZBlue]

65. Thank you to knitter and you too bmbmd!

Thanks for your sane and intelligent voices on DU. Way too many people on this site have become so bitter because of the Bush administration that everything turns into a government conspiracy. I'm not saying those conspiracies don't exist or that they don't have a reason to be bitter, but in this case I have a real hard time accepting that it's just a scare tactic.

This isn't a US-only worry. This has already hit other countries, countries that don't even like Rummy and Bushie and all their cronies. They aren't in cahoots with them. Rummy isn't over in Thailand or China infecting birds.

Arguing that the number of deaths from bird flu to date is low doesn't mean squat. This is a flu that is very likely to mutate into a form that will transfer from human to human. Those are the numbers we need to worry about.

And, it may turn out to be a weak form that's easily contained. A vaccine may be easy to create. The problem is that 1) the chances of these two things happening are slim and 2) once it's here, it's already too late to prepare anything.

Using the fact that Rumsfeld is going to benefit from the sale of Tamiflu to prove this is a conspiracy is a real spin on the facts. Yeah, he's going to benefit and so are many others. Is it coincidence in his case? Doubtful. He got a head start on the bird flu info, knew about Tamiflu before most of us even heard the name, and got on board. A little blood-thirsty and opportunistic? Yeah, but also a good business move.

And lastly, the claim that we need to be worried about bird flu is backed up by LOTS of medical and scientific knowledge and information. I have yet to see one claim that it's a hoax from anyone in the medical or scientific community - if someone knows of one and can post a link, please do so, I'd like to see it (no sarcasm).

[bullwinkle428]

31. I just saw Frist give his little speech where he outlined the

doomsday scenario - I was practically waiting for that sadistic creep to finish it off with "MERRY FUCKING CHRISTMAS, EVERYBODY!!!"

[mmonk]

34. Duct tape...check...... candles.....check.....

[BuyingThyme]

35. Just wait until they find out about poison ivy.

[MrMonk]

36. Won't someone think of the chickens?

Considering that chickens are now factory-farmed to meet the U.S. demand for some 10-25 billion birds each year, I'm more concerned about the price of the birds, rather than catching the flu from them.

[Odin2005]

38. The BS in this thread sickens me.

It is not if, but when this virus mutates to go from person to person. Get your biology staight people. :banghead:

[WindRavenX]

40. AND

In a lot of cases, in the process of the bird-->pig-->human transmission, a viruses' virulence is often SEVERELY reduced. So if it has direct transmission, it may not even be that virulent.

I have seen nothing to suggest a bird-->human transmission; and this probably won't happen. It's a rare event.

[knitter4democracy]

42. That's what happened in 1918, though.

In one of the latest NEJMs my husband got (not this week's but last week's), one of the review articles stated that the latest research showed that the 1918 influenza virus (what we have left of it, anyway) was entirely avian. You're right that it doesn't happen often, but when it does, it'll be bad.

We know that H5N1 is trying to mutate into easy transmission and that there's even some evidence that it already has but not on a large scale and killed its hosts too quickly to pass it on. It's just a matter of time. It may not be for another couple of years, it may be a decade from now, but it will happen.

[WindRavenX]

48. You're correct that H1N1 was avian-->human transmitted

But since the emergence of H5N1, the mortality rate has been much, much lower than the 1918 pandemic. There is also a huge problem in comparing H1N1 to H5N1 simply because the medical conditions have changed so much; I guarentee that IF the 1918 pandemic were to represent itself in terms of scale in the form of H5N1, there will not be nearly as big of a panic.

FWIW, 30K + people die from current strains of Influenza A every year in the US.

DEEP BREATH people. It's not the end of the world :hi:

[knitter4democracy]

52. Have you ever run a code on one of them?

Pulled the plug on their vent because influenza beat them? Seen it happen year after year? My hubby has, and that's why he's worried about a stronger, more deadly strain.

That's the thing with H5N1: even with all the stuff we now can through at it, it still has an amazingly high death rate compared with the usual strains we deal with (which are bad enough). In a small city like ours, with our small hospital and limited resources, the usual flu season is pretty bad (even with Tamiflu and vaccines). Make it a nastier influenza virus, and that's why the doctors are worried. Our unit is usually full at this time of year on any given day as it is, so we won't have the beds and vents we need for bigger numbers.

[WindRavenX]

54. codes? vents?

I'm afraid I don't understand what you're refering to--could you please clarify?

And yes, H5N1 does have a higher mortality rate--this is to be expected because the population has almost no, if any, partial immunity because H5N1 is a completely new subtype of influenza. However, I would like to emphasize that the sample size of infected individuals and deaths are too small to make a strong conclusion about the mortality rate as a whole.

Also, some of the matrix-inhibiting medications that have been suggested to stockpile H5N1 have been shown to be very inefficient.

It is still too early to panic because we still do not know the full picture of H5N1. Which is why I am asking people to please, please not panic.

[knitter4democracy]

56. Sorry.

A code is what they call when someone's heart stops, when they die in the hospital. My husband ran many and helped on many, many more in residency, and apparently he was pretty good at it. Even still, he never saved more than half of those patients, probably closer to a third. It's a hard thing, to shock someone back to life only to lose them again and again or never get them back when it sure seems like you should be able to. He has felt many people slip away under his hands, and several were because of influenza.

A vent is the machine that breathes for a person if they can't do it on their own. Doctors put a tube down the throat of the patient, and the machine pumps air into the patient's lungs. If someone's lungs are filled with fluid, a common occurence in certain infections like influenza, their lungs can't get the oxygen like they need to, and they often are put on the vent. When a patient dies, even after everything the doctors have tried, the doctor has to turn off the vent and call the time of death. Sometimes, it's easier to let that person go, but it can be very hard to do that, too.

You're right that we don't know the full picture of H5N1, but we do know quite a bit. A lot has been in my husband's medical journals, especially the New England Journal of Medicine, with every scrap of info we've got. Everything that we do know says that this one, even with all the resources we have today to fight infections and their consequences, is far more deadly than the usual strains we deal with every year. And trust me, those are bad enough.

edited for silly spelling errors

[WindRavenX]

57. agreed that it is worse than normal

That's the nature of influenza. Every 30-40 years we get a genetic shift that has the entire population vulnerable.

But I still think the threat is far overblown.

[knitter4democracy]

63. I hope you're right.

The problem we have in our area is that our medical resources are already maxed out. We won't be able to save as many patients as we would need to if it's even just a bit worse than the usual strains.

[knitter4democracy]

62. Thank you.

You're entirely right.

[yankeedem]

39. It's the new SARS

nt

[Enraged_Ape]

43. Oh, my God, you mean...we're ALL GONNA DIE!!!!??

(in Darth Vader voice)

NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!

[Deja Q]

44. or the FEAR of bird flu.

Which is what the sweet neocons want.

[knitter4democracy]

58. It's not a neocon issue.

They may be trying to take advantage of it, but the medical community has been worried about this for ages. I've been reading about it in my hubby's medical journals since he started med school in 1996.

[KoKo]

47. Simple Answer: Kill or poison all the Birds, everywhere. We don't need

them,anyway. They poop everywhere. What good are they if they just spread disease. :eyes:

[graywarrior]

51. Start with the rats with wings-pigeons.

[Ladyhawk]

55. Hey! Not my bird!

[Deja Q]

64. Read this and weep

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=5559555&mesg_id=5559555

[Geek_Girl]

68. Unless your a chicken farmer

Or work with birds I wouldn't loose sleep over it. The Avian Bird Flu can only be transmitted through bird poop or or Bird saliva. The Flu has not mutated to the point of being transmitted through human contact. If it does mutate with a regular flu virus there is a possibility that it will loose it death potency and be more like a normal flu. So I really wouldn't worry about it.