Exit polls do work.... just not in the USA

[althecat]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/constituencies/default.stm

Exit Poll --- > actual
lab %37 --- > %36.3
con %33 --- > %33.2
LD %22 --- > %22.6
Other %8 --- > %7.9

And as for the final result picked by the pollsters... a majority of 66... Blair presently has a majority of 99 with 27 seats yet to declare. So that is pretty close too if half of these break for blair and half against his majority will be pegged back 26 and his majority will be precisely 63. (NOTE: Predicting that is much harder than the basic % split - it is broadly similar to trying to pick all the senate and house results off the exit polls).

Remarkably the US exit polls are an order of magnitude bigger than the UK ones and on the headline no. i.e. presidential vote... ought if anything to be more accurate.

Al

(edited to clarify the seat by seat result.)

[althecat]

1. More discussion in Election Results Discussion over here...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=366408&mesg_id=366408

Thought would be worth raising here too as the evidence really is quite obvious. I wonder if they will even hold exit polls in 2006? If they do then I would put money on them making the recipients of the data sit on the results by pain of death until they have managed to "rebalance" em to fit the "official" count... :)

[Anarcho-Socialist]

2. The BBC is currently predicting a Labour majority of 64

[althecat]

3. Proving that the close of polling exit polls - headline 66 - were as....

... close to correct as it is probably possible to be.

TIA has some discussion in ER about how exit poll accuracy was improving in the US until 2000. And how then they went AWOL.

Here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x366334

[izzie]

4. I am with Labor but Blair was crazy to get mixed up with Bush

Bush always leaves dirt where ever he goes.

[althecat]

5. Seems he now knows that.... shame John Howard didn't get more of the same.

[ikri]

6. Note when the exit polls came out

The first exit polling data was release at 10 p.m. the moment that the polls closed and barely 40 minutes before the first actual results were in.

As I remember from the Nov'04 elections, exit polling data was being released throughout the day.

Regardless of whether there was fraud in the Nov'04 the fact that polling data appeared throughout the day WILL have changed the results during the day. All the early polls in the US said that Kerry was the winner. This will have had a double effect, nominal Kerry supporters will have thought that the job was done and their vote wasn't required while nominal * supporters will have seen the same polls as a sign that their vote was needed.

The exit polls in the Nov'04 elections probably were correct initially, but thanks to their data being misused the exit polls themselves actually managed to change the vote throughout the day.

[althecat]

7. A nice theory but no banana...

The polls right up to the bitter end showed Kerry winning by 2%. More importantly the polls were way out in the East not in the West... if the polls affected the result then the West should have swung against Kerry... California was the only state in which *s vote went down.

See here...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362106

[TruthIsAll]

8. althecat, a correction: the polls showed Kerry winning by 3%

		NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE SUMMARY STATISTICS						
		
	      2-Nov		2-Nov		3-Nov		3-Nov
            4:00pm		7:33pm		12:22am	       1:25pm

Respondents
	        8349		11027		13047		13660	

Kerry precentages
Votes in millions						

CATEGORY    Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote

GENDER    50.48	61.72	50.78	62.08	50.78	62.08  47.78  58.42
REGION    50.61	61.88	50.84	62.16	50.84	62.16  48.24  58.98
PARTYID   50.62	61.89	50.24	61.42	50.69	61.97	47.89	58.55
IDEOLOGY  50.30	61.50	50.07	61.22	49.85	60.95	47.25	57.77
VOTED2000 51.01	62.36	50.90	62.23	51.41	62.85	48.48	59.27

DECIDED   51.18	62.57	51.42	62.87	51.23	62.63  47.50	58.07
EDUCATION 50.32	61.52	50.34	61.55	50.21	61.39	47.82	58.46
RACE	   50.79	62.10	51.04	62.40	50.94	62.28	47.81	58.45
AGE	   50.44	61.67	50.53	61.78	50.53	61.78	47.96	58.64
INCOME    51.45	62.90	51.01	62.36	51.01 62.36  48.13   58.84

RELIGION  50.82	62.13	50.85	62.17	50.85	62.17	47.99	58.67
MILITARY  50.38	61.59	51.20	62.60	51.20	62.60	48.38	59.15

AVERAGE   50.70	61.99	50.77	62.07	50.80	62.10	47.94	58.61

				KERRY NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE DETAIL						
										
		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm
		8349	11027	13047	13660		8349	11027	13047	13660
										
			Category Weighting			Kerry Percentage		
GENDER										
Male 		42	46	46	46		47	47	47	44
Female 		58	54	54	54		53	54	54	51
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.48	50.78	50.78	47.78
VOTE (mm)						61.72	62.08	62.08	58.42
										
REGION										
East		23	22	22	22		58	58	58	56
Midwest		25	26	26	26		50	50	50	48
South		31	31	31	32		44	45	45	42
West		21	21	21	20		53	53	53	50
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.61	50.84	50.84	48.24
VOTE (mm)						61.88	62.16	62.16	58.98
										
PARTY ID										
Democrat 	39	38	38	37		90	90	90	89
Republican 	36	36	35	37		7	7	7	6
Independent	25	26	27	26		52	52	52	49
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.62	50.24	50.69	47.89
VOTE (mm)						61.89	61.42	61.97	58.55

IDEOLOGY										
Liberal 	22	22	22	21		86	87	86	85
Moderate 	45	45	45	45		58	57	57	54
Conservative	33	33	33	34		16	16	16	15
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.3	50.07	49.85	47.25
VOTE (mm)						61.50	61.22	60.95	57.77
										
VOTED IN 2000										
NoVote	        15	17	17	17		62	59	57	54
Gore		39	38	39	37		91	91	91	90
Bush		42	41	41	43		9	9	10	9
Other		4	4	3	3		61	65	71	71
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.01	50.9	51.41	48.48
VOTE (mm)						62.36	62.23	62.85	59.27
										
WHEN DECIDED										
Today 	        6	6	6	5		52	54	53	52
Last3Days 	3	3	3	4		50	54	53	55
Last Week 	2	2	2	2		48	48	48	48
Last Month 	10	10	10	10		61	61	60	54
Before 	        79	79	79	79		50	50	50	46
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.18	51.42	51.23	47.5
VOTE (mm)						62.57	62.87	62.63	58.07
										
EDUCATION										
NoHS		4	4	4	4		50	52	52	50
H.S. 		22	22	22	22		50	51	51	47
College 	30	31	31	32		48	47	47	46
Grad		26	26	26	26		48	49	48	46
PostGrad 	18	17	17	16		58	58	58	55
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.32	50.34	50.21	47.82
VOTE (mm)						61.52	61.55	61.39	58.46
										
RACE										
WM		33	36	36	36		40	41	41	37
WF		44	41	41	41		47	47	47	44
NWM		10	10	10	10		69	70	69	67
NWF		13	13	13	13		77	77	77	75
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.79	51.04	50.94	47.81
VOTE (mm)						62.10	62.40	62.28	58.45
										
AGE										
18-29 	        15	17	17	17		56	56	56	54
30-44 	        27	27	27	29		48	49	49	46
45-59 	        31	30	30	30		52	51	51	48
60+		27	26	26	24		48	48	48	46
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.44	50.53	50.53	47.96
VOTE (mm)						61.67	61.78	61.78	58.64
										
INCOME										
0-$15K 	         9	9	9	8		68	66	66	63
$15-30 	        15	15	15	15		59	59	59	57
$30-50 	        22	22	22	22		53	52	52	50
$50-75 	        22	23	23	23		46	45	45	43
$75-100 	14	13	13	14		49	49	49	45
$100-150 	11	11	11	11		44	45	45	42
$150-200 	4	4	4	4		45	47	47	42
$200+ 	        3	3	3	3		40	41	41	35
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.45	51.01	51.01	48.13
VOTE (mm)						62.90	62.36	62.36	58.84

RELIGION										
Protestant	53	53	53	53		43	43	43	40
Catholic 	27	27	27	27		50	50	50	47
Jewish	        3	3	3	3		77	77	77	74
Other 	        7	7	7	7		76	75	75	74
None 		10	10	10	10		69	70	70	67
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.82	50.85	50.85	47.99
VOTE (mm)						62.13	62.17	62.17	58.67
										
MILITARY										
InMilitary	18	18	18	18		43	43	43	41
NoMilitary	82	82	82	82		52	53	53	50
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.38	51.2	51.2	48.38
VOTE (mm)						61.59	62.60	62.60	59.15
						

[althecat]

9. Sorry TIA.... you are among many things the king of exit polls

and I bow to your great wisdom :)

:yourock:

[TruthIsAll]

10. al, I just edited the post to show the COMPLETE NEP TIMELINE

.

[althecat]

11. Your'e a gem - a rock of strength and clarity, TIA... and now for bed...

adios...

[TruthIsAll]

12. And here are the probabilties

NATIONAL EXIT POLL PROBABILITIES 
	KERRY POLL DEVIATION TO 48.28% VOTE						
							
	11/2/2004	11/2/2004	11/3/2004	11/3/2004
	3:59pm		7:33pm		12:22am		1:25pm
Respon	8349		11027		13047		13660
							
MoE	1.07%		0.93%		0.86%		0.84%
StDev	0.55%		0.48%		0.44%		0.43%
Kerry%	50.70%		50.77%		50.80%		47.94%

Prob	0.000487%	0.000008%	0.00000043%	94.05%
1 in	205,180		11,781,646	233,712,012	1

Prob = 1-NORMDIST(Kerry%,0.4828,StDev,TRUE)	

[bpilgrim]

13. thank you as always TruthIsAll

one of DU's greatest :bounce:

thanks for sharing :toast:

peace

[TruthIsAll]

14. KICK IT! things move too fast on GD.

This is a very significant development.
ONCE AGAIN IT PROVES THAT EXIT POLLS ARE ACCURATE!
THAT IS ALSO TRUE IN AMERICA....

UNTIL THE NEXT DAY, WHEN THE EXIT POLLS ARE RE-WEIGHTED TO MATCH A CORRUPTED VOTE COUNT.

[althecat]

15. Shameless self kick n/t

[okieinpain]

16. funny how that works, I wonder what excuse they are going to come

up with to explain this.