A POLL: Do You Think We Are Going To Have An Economic Depression?

[Itsthetruth]

Poll question: A POLL: Do You Think We Are Going To Have An Economic Depression?

Do you think we will experience an economic depression within the next few years?

Your opinions and vote are welcomed.

[sinkingfeeling]

1. The handwriting's on the wall!! n/t

[Harry S Truman]

17. OK, I voted "no."

I've begun to notice that it seems all the panic from Greenspooge and others usually is just some other bunch of hooey to get more tax breaks and more right-wingnutcase measures passed.

[The Doctor.]

20. I wish that were the case.

You see, our energy costs are going to continue to rise.

Both because of the threat of the Euro becoming an international reserve currency, and because, according to many experts, the production of oil is reaching it's maximum levels while demand continues to increase. (unless you believe in abiotic petroleum genesis - which I'm still not so sure of.)

Should the Euro become a new energy trading currency, it will begin to dictate energy prices to a weaker dollar. In that case - our energy prices will skyrocket causing businesses to fold on a national scale. (costs go up while buying power goes down)

There is also the trade deficit issue.
As the deficit increases - the dollar is a less attractive currency.
The funny part?
- Our purchasing of foreign products props up their economies while their governments and banks keep buying our debt.

This is a cycle that cannot last.

And when it collapses - the 'Great Depression' will look like a picnic.

[Biased Liberal Media]

2. Yes. Look at our situation now...

gas prices skyrocketing, * trying to tap into ANWR...

It wouldn't surprise me at all. Stock up while you can.

[babylonsister]

5. How do you stock up for a depression?

I'm not being snide, just wondering. Who knows how long one would last? Having said that, thank goodness we like beans.

[Biased Liberal Media]

11. Stock up on food, non-perishables

seriously.

[me b zola]

31. Do more than stock up on food

Make yourself able to live outside of the matrix. Buy/own enough acres of land OUTSIDE OF CITY LIMITS were you can grow your own food & have trees for heat. If by some miracle things don't go belly up, owning a few acres of land will not hurt you. But by all indications, not having a few acres of land could make things extremely difficult.

We are in the process of buying our land, but are unsure if it is better to own 100 hundred acres more inland, or 20 acres closer to the coast, where our 38' sailboat is awaiting. There are pros & cons of both thoughts.



For those who are not in a financial position to take such actions, we must network.

[marions ghost]

52. fine to buy land...

but most will not be able to do that. Better to focus on how to Survive in Suburbia--ie. communities coming together to help people weather times of general scarcity and job loss.
Escape from the urban situation will not be the answer for millions. Focusing on mutually beneficial solutions is more productive for large populations. Speaking from experience--hardscrabble farming and living off the land is very difficult if you don't grow up with it, or have help from others. It's a romantic notion that may be right for a very small percentage of the population.

[Theres-a]

33. We're focusing on getting out of debt,too

[Bronco69]

3. Yes,

and then a Democrat will come along and fix it, and then the fools will vote in a repuke who will screw it up again and then another Democrat will have to come along and fix it. It's a never ending cycle.

[GetTheRightVote]

4. currency value down, jobs down, housing going down, depression coming

I agree with Bronco as well.

:kick:

[solinvictus]

6. Yep...

pretty soon, I'd bet, especially if GM folds under.

[12345]

7. My most conservative friend (with an MBA) says

look at our debt, national and personal. He says it doesn't look good.

Then, factor in gas prices (and the possibility of greater increases)and the possibility of a real estate bubble. Not to mention, the falling dollar and the impact that other countries dropping the dollar could have...It scares me. I think that we're up shit creek with a Bush paddle.

[bush_is_wacko]

8. As soon as China and Europe realize they have us by the balls

and they've had it with bushitler trying to shove "morality" down their throats they are going to pull the plug! They have a whole lot of United States currency, but they ALSO have a VERY diversified reserve. They have the power right now to send us into a spiral so deep the last depression will look like a "minor recession."

We are in big trouble if they decide they want to make a power grab. I'm not quite sure what i holding them back. I guess they have more sympathy for the average American than bush has for the average European, or Chinese, or Russian, or Iraqi, or Iranian or Syrian, or Plestinian...you get my drift!

[EVDebs]

9. Concentration of wealth with the top 1%...Top heavy

Louis Brandeis said "you can have great wealth or a democracy, but you cannot have both".

Read Kevin Phillips' "Wealth and Democracy" and see what happens with societies that get too top heavy, as Edward Wolff puts it.

[PhuLoi]

10. The Chinese, who know how to hold a grudge, will wait for the

moment of our greatest vulnerability, then precipitate our economic collapse, take Tiawan and maybe count coup on Japan. Further 'accidents' at US refineries and the collapse of the real estate asset bubble should do it.

[lastknowngood]

12. Check out this link he's a pro and knows his stuff

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

could be real scary soon

[Itsthetruth]

16. Thanks For The Link

Thanks for the link. I checked out the website. How credible is he? Some economists and Wall Street types predict a depression every decade if not every year. Hope he's not one of those doomsday people.

Personally, I think a deep economic crisis a very probable, and that it could happen in months, not years.

[Radio_Rick]

13. Current crude oil prices

are not the product of a conspiracy (except maybe between "Big Oil" and the "Big Three" and Bush-Cheney-Halliburton to bring our energy mismatch into order). We can't run away from Hubberts Peak Oil -- and it will kill us.

[Thurston Howell IV]

14. I just wrote about the possibility of a recession

on my blog:
http://bushmisunderestimated.blogspot.com/2005/03/recession-alert.html

A prominent financial analyst with a fairly good track record laid out the case for significantly increased risk of recession next year.

[asjr]

15. If it happens the media will have to feed us, clothe us, pay our

medical expenses and finally, bury us. It is their fault for not giving us real news. I know it is coming but a lot of people in this country haven't a clue. Frankly, I feel they are the "unpatriotic" element of this country.

[B Calm]

18. The BUSH ECONOMIC DISASTER continues....

[Coastie for Truth]

19. Energy is gonna do us in!

And all of the PNAC-NeoCon military games in the world won't put our energy Humpty-Dumpty together again.

[bearfan454]

21. Absolutely !

The Chinese will sell all of their T-bills and the OPEC countries will switch their oil currency from the dollar to the Euro. That's all it would take.

[Itsthetruth]

22. kick

For people who went online after dinner and may want to participate in and/or comment on the poll.

[Radio_Lady]

23. I'm ready to throw up my dinner...

I haven't felt this upset in months. How will our country get back to some kind of sanity? This is my definition of "feeling impotent" -- on a personal level.

[Habibi]

27. Don't go there.

Have a glass of bicarb, or chew some Tums, then sit down and think. Who are your family and friends? What are your skills? Are you as debt-free as you can be right now? What is your earning potential?

In other words, start taking stock. Make friends with your neighbors, if you haven't already. Get used to the idea of sharing living space with other people--you might need to in the near future. If you don't already know how to garden (for edibles or something you can sell), start learning--hey, it's fun, and could be very useful.

Are your home energy costs entirely dependent on the local utility companies? Are any alternatives available to you? (E.g., installing a wood stove--something I'm thinking about.) Is there anything you can do now to increase the energy efficency of your home?

I'm telling ya, learn to be frugal and resourceful now, if you haven't been. It'll be survivable as long as you don't expect to live like an upper-middle-class American.

Since I never have lived like one, it doesn't seem *quite* so scary to me.

[mmonk]

24. Maybe

if the world can figure out how to let us sink without dragging them down.

[lastliberalintexas]

37. That's the only thing

that's kept us "solvent" for the past couple of years. Anyone with a lick of sense can tell that the EU and Asia especially would love to see us eat a little humble pie. They just don't want to join us.

[hyphenate]

25. We're in one now

and HAVE been since the beginning of 2001, January 20, 2001 to be exact. It's not going to lighten, and we are going to be facing a cataclysmic point in the near future where there will be a class war, between the have and the have nots, and the middle class will crumble like a sandcastle in a high tide.

[lovuian]

26. When 0ver 90% wealth of a country is owned by a few

then your going to have a Depression

Capitalism as a system is a failure and causes tremendous
damage to the populus when Depressions and they happen all the time in a Capitalistic system...its a failure as a system

It takes the populus to be unemployed to wake up to the fact that they have been screwed by the elite.

Americans need a wake up call...I predict Socialism will be making a big comeback soon!!!

[CrispyQ]

28. I beleive the masses will have to be cold & hungry before they wake up.

[DustMolecule]

29. Unfortunately, I believe you are correct - eom

[Mike Niendorff]

46. very likely.

> I predict Socialism will be making a big comeback soon

And this is, at its most basic, why the groundwork for Fascism is being laid today by the ruling class.


MDN

[Greylyn58]

30. It's coming down the pike for sure....n/t

[Itsthetruth]

32. kick

For the Saturday morning folks. Wake Up!

[Radio_Lady]

49. OT, what a handsome Golden Retriever!

That dog's coat just glows! How old is he/she?

I love blonde/buff/beige dogs. Don't know exactly why -- I've had two buff Cocker Spaniels, but we are pet-free now. That's mostly due to our frequent travels.

Trying not to think about the decline and fall of the American Empire. It's just about Easter morning -- we're going to the local Unitarian-Universalist fellowship to join in their celebration.

Peace, folks. It's midnight here and I spent the day cleaning out closets and rearranging drawers, and listening to classical music (no talk today). Older clothes and toys are going to be donated to the Good Neighbor Center in Tigard, Oregon. Hope they find something nice in the bags and boxes I'll be delivering.

[lonestarnot]

34. Aren't we already hav'n one? n/t

[Itsthetruth]

35. If A Depression Is Near What Should We Invest In?

No. Not really, however, I sense a lot of unease and some of that is reflected in the comments made here.

I do wonder what DU economists would advise people to do in terms of investments assuming an economic depression is on the horizon. I would guess that government securities would be the safest investment. I guess that all securities held during the 1929 crash were honored. But, I don't really know if that is true.

I hope some present their expert views in this string.

[enid602]

36. investments

US Government securities are a bit iffy now, precisely because of the huge deficits and the impossiblity of ever repaying the trillions in bonds outstanding throughout the world. If you have an IRA I would transfer a good portion international bond funds. T. Rowe Price has a good one.

[Itsthetruth]

40. What Are International Bond Funds?

I know absolutely nothing about international bond funds. If anyone could post information and/or a link that would be greatly appreciated. I'm wondering how such bonds would perform if a U.S. depression becomes a world-wide event as it most likely would.

I can't imagine an economic collapse limited to these borders.

I'm looking for the safest and most secure investment without much regard for the rate of return.

Thanks

[enid602]

42. dollar

The T. Rowe Price International Bond Fund is 85% invested in sovereign and AAA-rated corporate bonds representing non-US developed world countries. Although the fund shares here in the US are denominated in dollars, the actual assets are denominated in Euros, Yen, Canadian and Australian Dollars, Kroner, Swiss Francs, etc. If the dollar goes down vis-a-vis other hard currencies, your investment goes up. Because this investment is still in your IRA, you don't have to pay a withdrawal penalty.

Although a collapse here will surely spread across borders, Europe will be less affected, because they export little to us as it is, and have long since diversified their central banks' holdings. Latin America might well benefit from a rapid decline in the US dollar, as they export little to us, and most of their sovereign debt is repayable in US dollars. Japan and Korea will be more affected if they lose an important market in the US, but the ENTIRE sovereign debt of Japan consists of monies they've borrowed to try to prop up the dollar in the last few years. Clearly, they can't go on doing that forever, and have made headway in diversifying the reserves of their central bank. Who knows what China is up to; I have a feeling they continue to prop up the dollar for some political agenda. I doubt if Bush decides much these days without consulting Beijing first.

There are two (and only two) possible scenarios; the dollar's hard landing, or perhaps a soft one. The G-7 is hoping for a soft landing, to minimize worldwide economic tumult. Ironically, our Presnit has not seen fit to send representatives to the last 2 G-7 summits.

[lonestarnot]

44. Gold? Commodities? Don't know

[earth mom]

38. Nominated and kicked! eom

[kliljedahl]

39. Where is "We're already in one"?

That was my choice.


http://www.kliljedahl.net

[Itsthetruth]

41. kick

eom

[Dark]

43. 59 million Americans have been in a depression since Bush took office. n/t

[lonestarnot]

45. LfuckingOL you got that right spot on!

[Itsthetruth]

51. Can't Just Sit Around Being Depressed

It's true that a lot of people are depressed but just wait until a real economic depression hits.

Than we can't just sit around all discouraged and depressed .... we'll have to take solidarity action to protect ourselves.

[TrustingDog]

47. of course, what's the alternative? economic boom? HAHAHAHAHAHAH

[Kurovski]

48. Maybe.

I think maybe.

I base it on sheer hope that sane folks high up will kajigger the mess enough to avoid it.

And that's the extent of my ability to talk economics.

[petron]

50. Does the...

...Pope shit in the woods?!

In other words, yes economic devastation is nearly upon us. The de-valued dollar, the gigantic deficit, the declining world-wide natural resources all point to collapse.

If your not paying attention, your not angry....oh wait, if you're not angry you're not paying attention...yea that's it.