Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate Predictions

[tritsofme]

Tomorrow morning at 7:30am CDT, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will announce the number of payroll jobs created in September and the unemployment rate.

The Street expects that 153,000 jobs were created in September and that the unemployment rate held steady at 5.4%.

I am not very optimistic about this number, and I am predicting 50,000 jobs created and the UE rate steady at 5.4%.

Between the hurricanes and the spike in oil prices, I think this number is going to be bad.

What's your prediction?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. 65,000 jobs created/5.5% unemployment

[cthrumatrix]

9. the jobs number is October 8th Friday 8:30 am est...not thursday

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[tritsofme]

10. Oh Gosh, I thought today was Thursday!

Duh!

With all the media talking about the debate on Friday its gotten my head spinning.

[alcuno]

12. Watch the markets Thursday afternoon.

The past few months it has really seemed that the numbers have leaked like a sieve.

[tritsofme]

13. Last month markets rallied on Thursday

and it turned out to be only 144k.

But I do think that disastrous July number leaked out on Thursday.

[alcuno]

20. It looked to me like the August numbers had leaked as well. I predict

103,000 new jobs. I base this on the market's close today. There is either some mediocre news out there or the expectation of such.

[ewagner]

2. You can smell the books cooking

all the way from DC.

My suspicion/fear is that the books will be strongly cooked in Dubya's favor. And the bureaucrats don't have the firepower to stop them...........

[FlemingsGhost]

18. Yup ... unemployment is most certainly not 5.4%

Double that number, folks.

[MidwestTransplant]

3. Isn't it released on Friday?

I think the Admin. expects a bad number. Yesterday they let it be known that they expect upward rivisions from the Spring. I think they were prespinning for this number thinking that it would be bad.

[David Dunham]

4. It is to be released on Friday. I predict 35k new jobs, 5.5% unemployment.

I agree the administration expects a low number of jobs to be created.

[tritsofme]

5. The administration offically gets the numbers right about now

or within the next 10 minutes.

[sonicx]

6. about the same as last month i'm guessing and...

rupukes will continue to say it's the best economy in 20 years. lol

altho, i wouldn't be surprised if the number was below 100,000.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. It Will Be Statistically Identical

Whatever direction it changes, it will be within 2/3rd of one standard deviation of the mean of the last 30 months.

Since that range covers 50% of all possible values, it's within the probable error of any prior month's value. Simply put, it's a coin flip's difference between one month and another, hence identical.

Now, the number might be a little higher, and people will crow that the economy is tanking worse, or it could be lower and the Repubs will shout that it shows the economy is heading in the right direction. Both will be wrong. Trust me on this.
The Professor

[Skittles]

14. I trust the Professor

Indeed I DO. :hi:

[tritsofme]

7. kick

[TahitiNut]

11. One guarantee: At least 25% of September "gains" will be ....

... offset by downward revisions of August "gains." I'll bet real money on it.

[tritsofme]

15. kick

[sonicx]

16. does anyone know anything about this...

"revision" thing they're doing friday? I read they are going to pull another 100-500 thousand unfound jobs out of their asses. what's the deal?

[TahitiNut]

17. Simple. They 'revise' August's employment figures downwards ...

... and it makes September look like more jobs were gained.

Employment numbers are revised twice in the two months subsequent to their 'preliminary' release. Tomorrow's September employment numbers will be 'preliminary.' Accompanying their release, both July's and August's will be revised - most often (during the Busholini Regime) downwards.

[sonicx]

19. oh, i know that much. i mean this...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6412008

NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - White House economists expect that this week's revisions to nonfarm payrolls data, the last released before the Nov. 2 presidential elections, may show substantial labour market gains for the March 2003 to March 2004 period, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
The newspaper cited a memo by U.S. President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers as stating that revised data for March 2003-March 2004 could be revised upward by 288,000 jobs, and as much as 384,000.

The data will accompany September's payroll employment numbers.

The White House estimate, prepared by career CEA technical staff, has no effect on what the independent Bureau of Labor Statistics will actually report on Friday, the article said.

The Journal quoted CEA spokesman Phillip Swagel as saying the CEA estimates were "very preliminary", adding they were generated by an economic model with a typical statistical error range of +/- 140,000 jobs.

"The only number that matters is the number the BLS announces on Friday," Swagel told the Journal.

snip

[tritsofme]

21. Benchmark revision

possibly?

[sonicx]

22. i'm dumb

what does that mean?

[tritsofme]

23. 2 hour kick!