One possibility which would cook Bush for sure

[ugarte]

If Blair says the British are leaving Iraq.

The British have got to be pissed right now that the Marines went into Najaf, because it creates major blowback against them in their zone.

I'm not predicting it, but if things continue to deteriorate and the Shiite uprising continues and spreads in the South and the British actually find themselves taking significant casualties...something they haven't signed on for...who knows?

Bush would be left standing naked if Blair deserts him.

[Norquist Nemesis]

1. True. But it's not gonna happen.

Although Blair's probably hoping that Kerry's going to pull is ass out of the sling.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Only if Blair is defeated in House of Commons and loses snap election

The only way the British will leave Iraq is if Blair is defeated badly in a House of Commons no-confidence vote and there is a snap election. This is extremely unlikely, as I think he has a majority. Even if the majority of the majority are Laborites who hate the war, Blair might lose a no-confidence vote on the war, but it is not likely he would lose a standard no-confidence vote.

Blair is not going to cut and run. He will go down with the ship first, should it come to that.

[AndyTiedye]

3. making his party go dowin with him, no doubt.

> Blair is not going to cut and run. He will go down with the ship
> first, should it come to that.

[the_outsider]

4. Blair can't back out of it now

He has bet his whole political career on it. He needs to be kicked out of labor party first.