A little perspective on the convention polls.

[59millionmorons]

After looking at this data I am comfortable saying Kerry is up by at- least 5 points. People tend to see one poll and react to it. Take a look at the last few polls and you will feel better. These polls and Frank Luntz's focus group makes the Gallup results unlikely.

RCP Average 7/26 - 7/31 44.0% 49.7% (Kerry +5.7)

Rasmussen (1,500 LV) 7/29-7/31 45% 49% Kerry +4
Newsweek (1,010 RV) 7/29-7/30 44% 52% Kerry +8
Zogby (1,001 LV) 7/26-7/29 43% 48% Kerry +5
CNN/USA (LV 718) 7/31-8/01 50%-47% Bush +3
CNN/USA (RV 913) 7/31-8/01 50%-47% Kerry +3

As another barometer, consider Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster who helped plot Newt Gingrich's conservative congressional takeover. Luntz ran a focus group Thursday night, talking to 20 swing voters in the swing state of Ohio, and was stunned by their remarks. They had just watched Kerry's speech, and loved it - to the point where four Bush-leaning voters announced they were switching to Kerry.

"It was one of the strongest positive reactions I've ever seen in a focus group," said Luntz. "Kerry didn't lose anybody. Most importantly, he was able to convince that he is presidential, that he would be tough yet open-minded. They now see him as a credible commander-in-chief."


http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/front/9290785.htm?ERIGHTS=-443913062577729525philly::tkramer [email protected]&KRD_RM=8oqtvuoswxuprurrsqpooooooo|Mike|Y

[calimary]

1. Frank Luntz's demeanor, Thursday night, was telling.

He'd gone from smug and a little bit smirky, really having a good time on Wednesday night when he had a few of those idiots in that focus group telling him "I'm not buying it" - about Edwards - to being sober as a judge Thursday night. He was clearly and demonstrably shaken by what he was seeing from that same focus group. It obviously wasn't what he was expecting or, evidently, hoping for.

[DemMother]

2. Thanks for posting the CNN RV results

I've been looking for those and think it's interesting that the emphasis has been on the LV, which as Donkey Rising--the best poll guru out there--points out, isn't a very reliable measure.

[59millionmorons]

5. emphasis has been on the LV

Because that has him leading. It makes a better story than saying Kery is leading 50-47.

[Catt03]

3. OK

I am printing this info so I can keep it on my desk and look at it every time I hear something like the Gallup results.

I am going to practice some Zen too.

[ItsMyParty]

4. demdem--a little correction on the Luntz Focus Group

I watched it both Wed. and Thurs. night. On Wed. he asked how many people of the 20 voted for Bush last time. 10 raised their hands. He asked how many of those 10 will vote for Bush this time and 5 raised their hands. On Thursday he went back to this 'group'. The 5 were, of course, still sticking with Bush; but the significant thing was that the 5 who weren't going to vote Bush, 4 of them definitely committed to Kerry. Thus, overall, in that group of 20, there were 14 Kerry voters (10 of whom didn't vote for Bush before in the first place, 4 Kerry converts, 1 former Bush that went undecided, and just 5 voters who previously voted for Bush sticking with him).