What Is The REAL State Of The California Recall?

[devarsi]

Here's what I KNOW -

1)Davis resigning would have no impact on whether or not the recall vote goes ahead.

2)Bustamante and Schwarzenegger are the only candidates polling in the double digits, with Bustamante currently holding a slight edge (within the MOE).

3)The recall is not an evil, illegal, Republican effort to overturn an election and kick Davis out, but an evil, LEGAL, Republican effort to overturn an election and kick Davis out.

4)Formerly, the recall effort was supported by some margin over 50% of those being polled.

Here's what I do NOT know (and I hope you can answer):

1)What percentage of those being polled currently support the recall effort?

2)Since the recall is a done deal, the ONLY thing that can be changed is the outcome. A Davis resignation may take some of the steam out of the recall vote outcome. Do those who oppose a Davis resignation do so just to thumb their noses at the Repugs, or because they think that this is truely the best possible stand for California Dems? Can you defend your position?

3) What do Bustamante and the Dems need to do now to bury Arnold Schwarzenegger, once and for all?

[slackmaster]

1. I agree with you completely on the things you know

As for the others, I'll give it my best shot:

1) Latest Field poll showed 58% favoring recall IIRC.

2) I belive a Davis resignation would result in fewer people showing up at the polls, which would favor people who are most interested in picking a replacement candidate i.e. Republicans. It's a gut feeling. I can't defend it with any concrete information. But Davis staying in office at least gives Democrats TWO opportunities to keep the office. If he resigns there are fewer possible outcomes that favor Democrats.

3) Bustamante needs to do three things:

- Show that he has a track record as a competent administrator and that he knows how to interact with the legislature,

- Avoid any negative campaigning especially against Davis,

- Get more name recognition. Capitalize on the Latino vote but don't rely on it. A lot of Californians act like they've never heard of him even though they may have voted for him in the last general election.

[Nederland]

8. Good Post

I belive a Davis resignation would result in fewer people showing up at the polls, which would favor people who are most interested in picking a replacement candidate i.e. Republicans. It's a gut feeling. I can't defend it with any concrete information.

I never thought of it that way, but now that you mention it I think you might be right. Up till now I thought that Davis resigning would be a good thing, but now I'm not so sure. It would be interesting to get polling data on the question...

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

10. I agree with your assessments and would add the following

Davis has not campaigned thus far. The debates will determine whether he can jockey to keep his job. Arnold has been dropping and is being negatively campaigned against by Simon which will help.

The polls I have seen are of 500 people..not being a statistician, I cannot anser for how accurate that will be.

[redeye]

2. OK

1. IIRC 56% of those polled support the recall, whereas somewhere between 40% and 43% oppose it

2. Don't ask me, I support the recall

3. Ditch Davis, if you ask me; in other words, stop associating Bustamante with Davis so much because it will hurt the Lt. Gov., just like Gore's association with Clinton and his sex life hurt him in 2000.

BTW, the recall is not an evil Republican effort but just a Republican effor, and it doesn't overturn an election any more than an election every 4 year overturns the previous one - only that this election takes place not because a fixed term has passed but because of Davis' approval rate, which had hit rock bottom when the recall effort started and since then has starting digging.

[Rainbowreflect]

5. Question on you BTW.

How many days after last November's election was the recall effort started?

[redeye]

7. I don't know...

...I've first heard of the recall in April, I think.

And besides, in California there's been a recall petition against almost every governor - except that this petition is successful because Davis' approval rate is in the toilet (so people have reasonable grounds to believe that they'll be able to 86 him in the recall election).

[Rainbowreflect]

9. I heard that the recall effort was started within days

after Davis was elected and the low approval rating has as much or more to do with the attacks by the repubs behind the recall as with anything he did or didn't do.
How can a recall be about low approval if it was started right after he won the election?

[Booberdawg]

3. OMG

There is another ongoing thread on this. Just beware that the opening post is ... um .... bullshit

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=191761&mesg_id=191761

[devarsi]

4. Exactly why I started this thread

Because I disagreed with VOTECLARK's opening, and wanted the same discussion without the flambait.

[Booberdawg]

11. Good idea

and beg your pardon :D :hi:

[WilliamPitt]

6. Answer for #3

Go wild on the get-out-the-vote drive, because right now the prediction is a 6% turnout, which will be a disaster.

[On the Road]

12. 6% a disaster for the Dems?

I thought it was Arnold's support which was shallow and democrats who were angry and motivated by the recall. The recall might even be voted down with a 6% turnout.

[WilliamPitt]

13. 6% will =

all the fundies who think the recall is a brilliant idea.