Does Davis actually think he can win?

[jiacinto]

I really want your opinions on this. On TV he actually thinks he can win this race. But, privately, does he realize that he is probably going to go? Is he angry? And how will he handle getting pushed out of office?

[Iverson]

1. one possibility

Although only Davis knows what's inside his own head, the presence of the Lieutenant Governor on the ballot can be taken as tacit expectation of losing the recall vote.

[CMT]

2. I think a politician always believes they can pull it off

for instance up to the last few days of the '72 campaign George McGovern was convinced he would win and Mondale too based on enthusiasm and size of crowds. I think he actually thinks with California having such a Dem tilt that if he can expose the recall for what it is that he can pull it off.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. How Sad....

Same thing with Dukakis, another one of the good guys.


I rememember reading about his final campaign swing through the big industrial states. Not sleeping and shaving five times a day.

[Yupster]

I remember Al Franken

the Saturday before the 88 election. He was on SNL and had an easleboard and drew a map of the USA freehand with a marker live on tv showing how if Dukakis took this state and that state that he could just barely pull out an electoral vote victory.

So yes. I think he believes he can win, and he very well might.

[Alexander]

40. Actually, Mondale knew he would lose....

Right after Reagan's performance in the second debate, where he made the "youth and inexperience" joke. Mondale said later that he was wiping tears from his eyes after that joke, and after the debate was over, he told his wife that Reagan had won the election that night.

[CMT]

46. yes that was two weeks before the election

but prior to that with crowds surging and his first debate performance he felt he could pull it off.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

3. Davis has not lost a race yet so this would be a first

He is quite strategic as is his staff. I no longer have any false hope about the recall but DO believe anything can happen in a campaign. If he plays it right he can win and the ENRON?LAY? SWARTZENEGGER article from SALON gave him a very useful tool.

[jiacinto]

4. Ok

I think so too. Has Davis ever had to win a close race besides 2002?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

6. I can't recall any race being as close as 2002

[jiacinto]

8. Ok

Thanks.

[TahitiNut]

20. It must be your memory?

Daivs got 3,533,490 votes (47.3%)
Simon got 3,169,801 votes (42.4%)

A margin of nearly 5% isn't really very close, IMHO.

Of the voters going to the polls in November 2002, 262,470 (3.4%) didn't vote for any Gubernatorial candidate. Over 393,00 (5.3%) voted Green.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

32. Tahiti please reread Carlos' question. He said besides 2002

My memory is OK....it's just short.

[Alexander]

41. Uh, yes, that election was close.

Because despite Bill Simon running one of the worst campaigns ever in the history of mankind, he STILL got 42% of the vote, and for half the night, I remember looking at California's election results in utter despair, because Simon was ahead until very late that night.

[jfxgillis]

5. Davis CAN win

There are a number of feasible strategies, not least of which is to argue to the voting public that the "circus" is itself damaging CA.

He's right on the number poll-wise anyway. Do you think it's impossible for the Recall numbers to move by 4 points during the campaign?

[JackSwift]

7. Suppose he goes on the offensive

This guy AS is a bunch of movie cliches on the surface, but he had a meeting during the height of the energy crisis with Ken Lay and Pete Wilson to try to see if they could rip the people of California off even further. He's not the solution, he's the problem.

Yeah, he could win but it won't be easy

[NYC]

14. Ken Lay & Schwarzenneger.

The connection should wake up Californians.

[Classical_Liberal]

23. It still won't explain why Davis paid Lay extortion money

when he didn't have to.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

9. he did win 8 months ago...this is 2000 election redux!

[Classical_Liberal]

25. It is part of the California Constitution and has been since the

depression. It wasn't done to any other democrat, because they had supporters, and weren't merely better than the republican. I don't believe the republicans will take this election. I think a more proactive member of the left will.

[samsingh]

11. wouldn't it be cool if he won?

imagine the impact that would have on the corrupt repug machinery

[Cronus Protagonist]

19. Yeah!

That's the outcome I want to see!


Fuck Bush Buttons — The Cronus Connection

[Classical_Liberal]

29. It won't have any impact on them, other than preventing more advancement

Davis really isn't very damaging to republicans and that is he problem. He gave them lot's of campaign cash and an issue with which to whip him buy paying extortion money to Ken Lay. Lay has more money to contribute to the repukes, and Davis get's a whopping budget deficite.

[Snellius]

12. If he keeps following Clinton's advice it's hasta la vista

I'm not sure Clinton is the best person to give advice on how to handle a scandal. If he is really advising him to not go negative and keep telling people "I'm governor, being gubernatorial, and they're not", Davis is doomed. He just looks weaker than ever. It's almost like he casting himself in the role of the pasty-faced dweeb who lets the muscle-brained beach bully kick sand in his face. Get dirty. He's getting screwed. The only way to win is to have the balls to go down swinging.

[ewagner]

16. Most dangerous

The most dangerous man in the world is the one who has nothing to lose. Davis is in that position now.

he is not known for being reticent. he is not known for being a whimp. I'm pretty sure he'll come out firing.

(snickering) he should probably go see a replay of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid........that will give him inspiration.

[chaumont58]

28. Back in Jan '09, how many people thought Clinton would survive?

He fought ole PornStarr to a standstill. You say if he keeps following Clinton advice....., you must be privy to secrets few others are. I, for one, don't know what advice he has been getting, and I have seen no published reports of specific details. Are you the mouse in Clinton's pocket? I live in California. I voted for Davis twice. I think the recall effort is a perversion of the democratic process. Five percent of the previous election's voter total had to sign a petition. They could be all repukes. This really is a tyranny of the minority.
If truth means anything, Davis(and Clinton) will be able to convince voters that the energy crisis was brought about by his predecessor, and by Enronites jobbing the system. The budget crisis is pretty much uniform throughout the various states. California just happens to have more people and a bigger budget than anyone else.
This is a winable fight.

[Snellius]

31. This is one among other reports of the Clinton/Davis meeting:

On Monday, when Davis found himself in Chicago at an afl-cio convention with Bill Clinton, he privately sought the counsel of the master political survivor. As they talked for more than an hour at the Drake Hotel, Clinton (who has also been advising Feinstein) compared Davis' situation with his own during impeachment. The key, he told Davis, is to stay engaged and make sure voters see him every day on the job. Saturday's filing deadline found Davis signing environmental legislation at a health-care center in Santa Monica.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101030818-474507,00.html

The recall is a terrible "perversion" of democracy, as you say. But there are certain realities that will not go away by him acting as if everything is normal or playing the victim and blaming everything on the "vast rightwing conspiracy", as he, like others, has tended to do. (He's backed off on this line lately).

Davis should challenge Arnold to a debate. Now. He's now the David and Arnold the Goliath.

[Brian Sweat]

13. I don't see why he would not think he can win.

All the polls are very close. All he has to do is pick up a couple of percentage points.

[jiacinto]

15. I thought the polls showed Davis losing

nt

[Brian Sweat]

30. Yes, but only by a few percent.

[PurityOfEssence]

17. If what Art Torres said yesterday is a harbinger of anything, he can win

Everyone who has paid a utility bill for the past few years can be easily turned. The Republicans engineered energy deregulation and then we got deliberately--and illegally--screwed in a scandalous hosing. If that can be stuck on Junior, Wilson and others, there certainly FEELS like there's a chance.

Regardless, that's what they should do. They should show the most unflattering photos of Junior, Lay and Cheney--and boy, there are some ugly ones out there--and ram it down the administration's throat. Use the Saxby Chambliss ads as a model and force them onto the defensive.

This is no time for timidity, and it will work. The hell with my personal combativeness, I think a good old-fashioned demonization of greedy multi-millionaires screwing everyone in sight and covering it up will play. Unless you're wealthy, a big hit on your "fixed" housing costs sticks in the memory.

There's definitely no reason to fear Bashing Junior here; anyone who'll be offended by that will vote against Davis anyway.

[Classical_Liberal]

26. Not really. They wouldn't be paying the high utiliy bills if Davis

had reregulated the industry instead of paying Ken Lay extortion money. They also wouldn't have a high deficite. Davis allowed the utility companies to to do this to him.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

38. Explain how CL...that isn't true at all

Davis couldn't re-regulate the industry without the consent of the assembly and senate.

[Terwilliger]

42. The Dem assembly and Senate?

has the state house been under Dem control for a long time?

[Classical_Liberal]

44. They are democrats and popular sentiment favored it by 75%

Getting it passed would have been a cakewalk. Davis didn't want to do it.

[PurityOfEssence]

39. You didn't fight the villains enough, so the villains deserve to win

That's the crux of THAT argument.

The Republicans, in their goose-stepping lock step, got enough Democrats go go along with the swindle, therefore it's the Democrats' fault. Because this Democrat Governor didn't fight the thieves who deliberately robbed us blind, the thieves deserve to have all power given back to them. That's the same as the tiresome Reaganite apology for the tripling of the deficit in his terms: "...uh...well, it was a Democratically controlled Congress..." Yeah, the HOUSE was, but it was virtually every Republican with enough Democrats to swing it; that's Republican guilt and Democratic partial complicity.

When do we start hearing how Davis isn't doing his job instead of this selfish campaigning he's now indulging in? What a weasel; how dare he defend himself??? Anyone questioning the Republicans is filth and a traitor.

This is truly the Chutzpah Putsch: we destroy your economy for personal gain, and because you don't fight us enough, we deserve the keys to the kingdom.


That's why we must fight so hard: it's an invitation to make the local fascists look like the hypocrites, liars and thieves they are. Just the mention of it all makes them look ridiculous.

And then there's Arnold. So when did he sell HIS Enron stock? "I'm gonna "pump and dump" you up.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

18. I hope to God in Heaven

he has a chance. This whole Governor of California thing is suddenly starting to dawn on me.

[BrotherBuzz]

21. Hey Arnie...

Lets make this a real horse race by you start talking about HOW you are going to fix the state. I think your slogan writers wear aprons.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

24. If I told you too early

then Gray Davis would use my ideas and would fix
California before the election and I would not
be Governor of California. He already stole
some of my ideas and reduce the budget by $30
billion dollars. I will let you know all in
good time when I find out. In the meantime
go down by a babling brook and read your
Ecleiastes. As far as aprons go I like
aprons. Aprons make me feel like there is a
little humingbird in my throat.

[rocktivity]

22. He'd better start roaring like a lion whose cubs are being threatened

All he has to do is expose the recall for the vast right wing conspiracy that it is; educate the public about how the GOP has been trying to literally bankrupt them into submission; and of course dovetail it all into the Arnie/Enron connection. He could even exhume the ghost of Darrel Issa as an example of GOP values--they had a chance to present California with a "real" GOP candidate, and they send in ANOTHER cut-rate actor??? He should be calling all the media outlets and demanding equal time. He's defending his job and his voters--HE'S the politician who should be shouting, "Bring it on!"

rocknation

[Classical_Liberal]

27. Educating thet public won't help, because the VRWC against him

was stopable. He just didn't do anything to stop them. Oh he can definately knock Arnold down a notch, since Arnold stupidly put Wison on his campaign, and Wilson created the deregulation crisis. However, he can't really make himself look good. We will get a more agressive progressive, rather than a republican. People shouldn't act like this is a tragedy.

[Skinner]

33. This election is all about turnout.

This is an off-year *and* off-month election. So turnout will probably be relatively low. Whoever gets their voters to the polls will win.

It'll take a lot of cash, a lot of people, and a lot of luck. But I think Davis can pull it off.

[yorgatron]

34. i'd be VERY surprised

if Davis doesn't have something up his sleeve.he seemed pretty relaxed on Maher's show friday.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

35. action may be to force CA's hand into accepting e voting machines

quickly..no questions asked...i read the ACLU was sueing to suspend the oct 7 recall election until new computerized machines are in place :scared:

and BTW...Actually Davis DID win 8 months ago!

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

37. That's exactly what we are working on

:thumbsup:
Problem is districts are strapped for cash and not all precincts will be open. It's pretty imperative to not just get out the vote but to make sure people know where to go and individual counties will have a bit of a hand in clarifying this but they are already burned out from the overtime they put in counting recall sigs.

We may have a mess on our hands.

[goobergunch]

36. Davis can win...

but he's an underdog at this point.

I wouldn't underestimate the Davis machine, though...Davis is a really good fighter. The first thing IMHO he has to do is get the Cyborg's negatives down. With a high Democratic turnout, Davis can win.

[Clete]

43. He never thought this recall would get enough signatures,

however, I have noticed he and even his wife have been more public in the last few days, rallying supporters and explaining their policies.
I interpret this that he is very worried as he is more of a backroom politician and not comfortable in the limelight.

I think he is beginning to realize that the opposition is not playing a fair game. They may be playing with a token nod to the rules but they are keeping extra cards under the table. I think Davis is coming to the realization that it may not be as easy as winning the first time.

[Undemcided]

45. I'm not a betting man but ....

Bustamante supporters would happily vote out Davis if their boy got to be Governor. I think it will come down to a popularity vote between Bustamante & Davis and I think Bustamante will win it.