What if this happens (Bush "wins" the war)

[HFishbine]

Sovereignty is transfered to the Iraqis on June 30th, they exercise their power by thanking the US for liberating them, asking the US to please go home now, and the US complies.

Bush touts a mission (really) accomplished; points out that the US succeeded even without the spineless international community; troops are home, Iraq is liberated, Bush doctrine a success.

Does he win in November?

[markus]

1. That depends on my many people die between June 30

and the time the last helicopter lifts off the roof of the U.S. Embassy.

I don't see there being a smooth transition. I don't think anyeone does.

And the whole point of this exercise was to establish a military presence outside of Saudi Arabia to threaten Syria, Iran and anyone else who doesn't play nice with out oil.

I don't see the U.S. leaving completely in our lifetime, whether its Bush or Kerry.

[Speck Tater]

2. One of Bushco's main reasons for invading

was to establish military bases in Iraq. As long as those bases remain tension and vioence will remain.

[HFishbine]

4. Right, right, I understand, but

I understand the reasons Bush invaded, but if it comes down to securing their original objectives or staying in office, does Bush win in November if he brings the war to a "successful" conclusion that includes withdrawal with honor?

[madrchsod]

3. we are not leaving

we are not turning over control of any thing. the war will go on untill someone decides to end it and leave ,that will not be bush and i`m having my doubts about kerry

[havocmom]

5. No way to win a war against people fighting for their homes

unless one is willing to go in and totally bomb the place out of existence, which would likely raise more than a few eyebrows worldwide and create at least a couple dozen new terrorists.

Never enter a fight you aren't prepared to finish was the wisdom my ol mom gave us. And never start a fight, period. My mom was a much better person than Babs.

They can pull out (which is gonna make causalities go up as troop strength goes down) and call it victory, but the world knows better. They can keep calling lies truth and up down, but unless everyone agrees they are pissing in the wind.

The emperor and his pals are bare assed and buck naked and the world knows it. The disservice to our military is tragic and unacceptable. the murder and damage done to the Iraqi people should get them marched off to the Hague in irons.

[CulturalNomad]

6. No way that plays out

Remember Afghanistan with cute talking Karzai essentially confined to the areas where he's protected by US soldiers - no puppet regime will be able to survive in Iraq without US soldiers (no one else is going to provide any and UN peacekeepers will get killed). Also that scenario would imply that in fact we did go in to Iraq for liberation reasons - a fact belied by the plans to construct the largest middle-east embassy and get the best deal on oil.

[bushgottago]

7. Bush already won the war

Didn't you see the "Mission Accomplished" banner last year?

[Jim__]

8. If that scenario plays out, Yes.

But I agree with post #2 - no way we intend to leave.

[iconoclastic cat]

9. If the US pulls out, there could be civil war in Iraq

Without US targets, the factions there may start to fight it out for supremacy.

[HFishbine]

12. That seems to be the conventional wisdom

But would it be reality? Is there any reason to think that civil war is more likely than orderly progress? One thing I've learned in the past 3 1/2 years: question assumptions.

[gasperc]

10. you forgot, Iran will invade

civil war breaks out between Kurds and south
Turkey invades to crush Kurdish movement
syria grabs a chunk of west Iraq

and pigs will fly out of Bush's ass

[napi21]

11. No. Even if we got out of Iraq, Bush will invade elsewhere

Even before we get close to being done in Iraq, I hear rumblings about Syria. Afghanastan is still active even though it's not in the news. People are still very upset with the lack of jobs available in the US, and the jobs being "created" seem to be part time or low level ones.

I still don't think Shrub will win.