Prediction: Cruz will win the replacement election

[jos]

With Garamendi dropping out, and the poll showing Arnold with only 25% of the vote with all the media hype he has been getting, and with Simon, Ubbee and McClintock in the race, I predict that Cruz will win the replacement election. While many on the left will vote for Huffington, regular Democrats and Hispanics will come out in sufficient numbers to give Cruz the plurality needed for victory.

The one worry I have is that Arnold may implode sometime in September, and Republicans will flock around Simon. I think Arnold will do no better than he is polling today. We'll see.

[mlawson]

1. ??? 25% could easily do it, with that many people in the race.

As horrified as I am, I can not imagine AH-nuld NOT winning.

[robbedvoter]

2. They polled 500 people, OK? probably coming out Terminator 3

On edit, this was actually my answer to #1, not the original message. I kind of agree with the prediction.

[mbee]

4. Are you saying Democrats will vote Arnold?

I don't quite understand since I read recently he met with Karl Rove in the White House supposedly about CA Education concerns. This is a set up and the Democrats are a disgrace if they don't spend money far and wide and put pamphlets on every single door in CA. Do you think Arnold knows the pugs want to commit election fraud in CA?

[jeter]

3. NO NO CRUZ WILL WIN EASILY

Yes there are a lot of people in the race. Too bad except for Cruz they're all Republicans. There are only so many republicans in California. There aren't too many "moderate republicans" there (why they never win nominations) - only in Orange County and Bel Air.

Hispanics make up 30%+ of the California population. Hispanics in California are more Democrat then elsewhere because of Proposition 108. There is only one Democrat and one hispanic in the whole bunch. Who are San Fransisco Democrats going to vote for? Simon? Swartzenegger? No Cruz. Maybe the Green.

Not to worry. I think Davis will get recalled. And I think Cruz wins the replacement election by 20% or more.

Here's how I see it breaking down:

Cruz: 40 to 45%
Simon: 20 to 25%
Arnold: 15 to 20% (yes, he comes in third. Mark my words).
Green Candidate: 5 to 10%
Everyone else: the difference.

[Terwilliger]

7. not to worry?

I wonder if everybody here agrees with this

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. Realistically Speaking...

Cruz Bustamante could be winning with a third of the vote.

Here's one possibility:

Bustamante: 35%

Schwarzenegger: 20%

Simon: 15%

McClintock: 5%

Huffington: 5%

Other: 10%

YES, it is possible that Arnie finishes SECOND. But he will be further back in the line with everyone else.

[David__77]

8. 10% missing...

this is 90%. But I see your point. I think though that the single Democratic candidate will gain more than 35% of the vote. Let's not be afaid of "low-turnout" scenarios. We've got to mobilize three groups--labor, progressives/liberals, and communities of color. If we do our job right, we will win. This IS California, and there is something to all the hoopla about this being a progressive state. We're hardly out of the woods, but the Democratic team has done well today.

Special, special thanks and gratitude to John Garamendi. I will remember that in his future campaigns...

[Ivory_Tower]

6. One thing I'm confused about

I asked this in another thread and didn't get a response, so I thought I'd bring it up again.

Somebody posted the relevant California laws that stated that (1) Even if Davis resigns and Bustamante replaces him, the recall still goes on, and (2) Davis could not run in the second part of the recall because candidates are forbidden to replace themselves.

So what I was wondering is if Davis leaves the governorship (by whatever method, be it resignation or faulty small plane) and Bustamante replaces him, does this mean that Bustamante is disqualified from the second part of the ballot? Is the recall against Davis or the sitting governor?

If it's the latter then Davis should most certainly NOT resign, and should probably also be careful.

[David__77]

9. Not a worry...

only the named officer targeted by recall is disqualified from the recall candidate ballot. A potential Gov. Bustamante could run as an incumbant on the ballot. But I don't think that will happen. We shall see. It would be a "doozy" to pull out at a certain point and could bolster the "new governor."

[Perky]

10. The election is a definite lock

Too many candidate and too many Loyal Dems.

see my post on the math

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=155608&mesg_id=155608

[Friar]

11. I hate to be so cynical

But I think the only way to defeat Ahnold and Rove is for Davis to resign. Bustamante then becomes Gov. and this entire debacle is rendered moot.

I will vote for Arianna if the recall is approved.