The Arab Winter Approaches: In Egypt, one tyranny begets another

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The revolutions against Arab autocracies—dubbed the “Arab Spring”—have been greeted in America with bipartisan celebration. To President Obama, the uprising in Egypt reflected the yearning of Egyptians for “the same things that we all want: a better life for ourselves and our children, and a government that is fair and just and responsive.” Visiting Libya after the fall of Gaddafi, Senator John McCain enthused, “ have paid an enormous price for their freedom,” and have earned “a chance for all Libyans to know lasting peace, dignity, and justice.” And Senator Joseph Lieberman wrote in Foreign Affairs, “Throughout the Middle East, we see the narrative of violent Islamist extremism being rejected by tens of millions of Muslims who are rising up and peacefully demanding lives of democracy, dignity, economic opportunity, and involvement in the modern world.”

This enthusiasm confirms the dominant narrative that explains both the causes of jihadist terror and the solutions to the problems that have given rise to it. President George W. Bush articulated that account in his second inaugural speech: “For as long as whole regions of the world simmer in resentment and tyranny—prone to ideologies that feed hatred and excuse murder—violence will gather, and multiply in destructive power, and cross the most defended borders, and raise a mortal threat. There is only one force of history that can break the reign of hatred and resentment, and expose the pretensions of tyrants, and reward the hopes of the decent and tolerant, and that is the force of human freedom.”

Once these tyrannies are removed, as seemingly has occurred in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, and democratic institutions take their place, freedom and economic opportunity will flourish, the swamps of jihadist terror will be drained, and terrorist outfits like al Qaeda will be marginalized.

Now that the dictators are gone, however, recent developments in these countries are calling into question this optimistic analysis. In Tunisia’s first democratic election following the revolts, an Islamist party, Ennahda, took 90 out of 217 seats on the new National Constituent Assembly. Ennahda was inspired by the Muslim Brothers, the world’s oldest Islamist party whose credo is “God is our objective; the Quran is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader; jihad is our way; and death for the sake of God is the highest of our aspirations.” Despite these roots, Ennahda founder Rachid Gannouchi has assured the West and Tunisian secularists that his party is moderate and does not intend to subordinate the freedoms of Tunisians to Sharia law. However, Ennahda counts among its supporters the more radical Salafists like Hizb at-Tahrir who do want strict adherence to Sharia. Additionally, Ennahda finds broad support among the poorer, rural Tunisians who are more conservative than the French-influenced cosmopolitans living on the coast.


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