Blair dead in the water? No such luck

[T_i_B]

I thought I had better post this as a response to all the speculation on here about Tony Blair resigning. The article may be by Boris Johnson but the case he makes about why Tony Blair is safe is fundamentally sound IMHO. Make of this what you will.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fopinion%2F2004%2F04%2F29%2Fdo2902.xml&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=333043

Blair will not go this summer, and no, he will not go before the next general election. Here are at least three reasons. The first is that it is not in the nature of politicians to surrender their own political lives; they are like wasps in jam jars. They buzz on long after hope has gone. They go on because it is in their nature to do so, because all political careers must end in tears, and it is profoundly in the public interest that they should do, in the sense that politicians will work hardest and best if they know that their only exit is to be terminated in the Darwinian struggle for popular affection and interest.

He will not go because there are scores of his backbenchers who know that they were not propelled to Westminster because their electorates fell in love with their own blue eyes. They know that Tony won their seats, because he offered Middle England a kind of Tory Lite party that seemed economically sensible without some of the nastiness that they had come to associate with my great party.

They also know that they have absolutely no practical way of disposing of Blair, because a leadership election would necessitate the votes of 80 MPs, a quarter of the parliamentary party, and there are not enough of them with the guts to trigger it.

And the third reason why Blair will stay and fight is of course that there is no one to take his place. He is New Labour, for better or worse. Straw? Pshaw. Blunkett? Junk it. As for Gordon Brown, and the idea that the baton could be smoothly passed to the Chancellor - cheated of his birthright for a mess of seared tuna at Granita - it is fanciful. Even if it were possible, technically, to effect such a transition, it would be an insult to democracy, not least because Brown, like so many other Labour members, sits for a Scottish seat, and is currently passing laws for England when English MPs have no say over those questions in Scotland, and above all when he, Gordon, has no say over those questions in Scotland. I would go so far as to say that the West Lothian question is now so acute that no sitting Scottish MP has a hope of becoming prime minister.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. If I were in England, I would PROUDLY vote LIBERAL DEMOCRAT.

The Labour Party is nothing more than a branch of the Tories.

[Atlanticist]

4. Well I am in England and I WILL be voting Liberal Democrat

I'm actually a Tory, who is so disgusted with the war that this trumps all other considerations. I don't care if my canteen mates make fun of me for voting with the earnest lentil-eating sandal-wearing brigade. I'm afraid I've become a war bore and I wander around the office muttering "Bush is a menace" to anyone who'll listen!!!

I really don't want you Americans to think all conservatives in Britain support the war. There are many of who think the Tories have made a big tactical mistake by lining up so readily with Blair. Some very senior ex Tory ministers like Clarke and Hurd have also been speaking out against the war for some time, and don't forget the 52 diplomats, most of whom we can assume are Tories.

[T_i_B]

5. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[KoKo]

2. Sigh......Charles Kennedy? What's so wrong with him?

:shrug:

[T_i_B]

3. For the purposes of this thread

I'll just say that since the Liberal Democrats are a third party they are not likely to attain power any time soon.

Of course if people are fed up with "new" labour they can always switch to the Liberal Democrats instead. I mean goodness, the European elections are soon! :-)