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Elliot D. Cohen
Posted on June 5, 2008
www.elliotdcohen.com
On the evening of June 3, when Barack Obama officially became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, Terry McAuliffe introduced Hillary Clinton by shouting "Are you ready for the next president of the United States of America!?" And the speech that Hillary subsequently delivered appeared to be largely a self-serving, campaign speech. Instead of conceding, she said, "This has been a long campaign. And I will be making no decisions tonight." She also directed her supporters to go to HillaryClinton.com and invited their opinions about what she should do next. Repeatedly, she posed the question, “What does Hillary want?”
So, what does she want? And what decision is there left for her to make? Surely the decision as to whether she should continue her campaign has already been made for her by virtue of her having lost the Democratic nomination to Obama. So, the recent “news” that she now intends to “suspend” her campaign for the Democratic nomination is meaningless. But wait a minute. The operative word here might just be “Democratic.” Surely she has ignited her base and it is a force with which to reckon—both inside and outside the Democratic Party.
When Senator Joseph Lieberman didn’t get the Democratic nomination for his Senatorial run in Connecticut, he became an independent, and still got re-elected. Well, maybe—just maybe--that’s a decision she hopes her base can help her to make. Maybe the crucial issue is not one of party but of what is best for the nation. Surely she could make this argument on her own behalf and sound reasonably patriotic.
The implications of her running as an independent—or call it what she might, say the “Party of Change”—would be to split votes between Clinton and Obama, making it improbable that Obama would defeat McCain. On the other hand, Clinton has already proven that she is willing to do whatever it takes to try to win an election and it is not entirely beyond possibility that she could muster more support than the other two candidates, especially from older women and “working whites.”
So what decision does Hillary have to make? It may simply be not to pursue her bid for the presidency—at least for now. On the surface this may seem the most likely possibility. But it would be odd that such an aggressive candidate with the support of eighteen million people would one day present as “the next president of the United States of America” and on the next day cooperatively plan her exit. Indeed, it is no secret that the Clinton camp had already, recently, floated the possibility that she might run on an independent ticket if she didn’t get the Democratic nomination.
If so, this might explain why, on the night he became presumptive Democratic Nominee, Obama didn’t hesitate to call Hillary and invite her to talk. She could have him over a barrel, not because she is the one most able to help him win the general election (that may or may not be true), but because she has incredible power to sabotage his bid for the presidency.
So what will Hillary do? Chances are that she will use her leverage to get herself onto the Obama ticket. Unfortunately, Hillary is old guard and having her as his VP would be inconsistent with Obama’s platform of change; it also has the potential to make him appear weak, and to undermine his leadership role if he defeats McCain in November. It is unlikely that Hillary and Bill would be content to play second fiddle to Obama.
On the assumption that Hillary has the chutzpah to actually take her bid for president outside the Democratic Party, Obama faces this dilemma: Either take Hillary on as his vice presidential running mate (assuming she’s willing) or risk having her sabotage his chances of winning the general election in November. Of course, Hillary might conclude that alienating the Democratic Party is just too risky. But never mind this. Even if she bluffs, she might still get Obama’s cooperation.
If under subtle or not so subtle coercion from the Clinton camp, Obama chooses Hillary to be his VP running mate, the front page headline is not likely to read, “Clinton Blackmails Obama into asking her to be on Ticket.” Instead, such “negotiations” would likely take place secretly below the radar of the mainstream media amid the semblance of a careful search for the ideal candidate. For obvious reasons neither Obama nor Clinton would have anything to gain (and much to lose) by having this unholy alliance given the media attention it would deserve.
So we may never know for certain what Hillary really wanted. But if sometime in the near future she shows up as Obama’s VP running mate, we might have a reasonable hypothesis as to why Obama “invited” her. But then Obama may well have allowed in a Trojan horse.
Elliot D. Cohen, Ph.D. <www.elliotdcohen.com> is a political analyst and media critic. His most recent book is The Last Days of Democracy: How Big Media and Power-Hungry Government are turning America into a Dictatorship. He is first prize winner of the 2007 Project Censored Award.
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