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Edited on Wed Feb-18-04 10:26 AM by Skinner
Henry Porter argues that, despite everything, George Bush is favourite to win in November
Sunday February 15, 2004 The Observer
The demographics never look good for Republicans, but there are three factors that make George W. Bush a regrettably good bet for November. In reverse order, they are the current lead of John Forbes Kerry in the Democratic race; the failure of most Americans to grasp what Bush has done to the country's economic prospects for the next 10 years; and, of course, Osama bin Laden.
I will come to the demonic synergy of Bush and bin Laden later, but let's first deal with Kerry, the attractive patrician with 30 years' Washington experience, propitious initials, a wife who combines huge money with ethnicity (she is from Mozambique), and a war record that is manifestly valiant compared to Bush's hilarious service as fighter pilot in the Texas Air National Guard. (Quite apart from Bush's alleged absenteeism, it has not been explained why Texas needs its own fighter pilots).
Kerry is a central casting President with a Mount Rushmore jawline. Beyond that I don't buy him, and in the fine print of the studies done after the 13 nomination contests it is plain that even Democrats have instinctive doubts about his political character. There is also the problem raised by Matt Drudge last week, which, given Kerry's war injury, might tactlessly be described as the leg-over issue.
But the crucial revelation of the week went pretty much unnoticed, probably because it concerns a complex psephological paradox. Rapid studies have found that Kerry's success in winning 11 of the 13 primaries is due not to his innate qualities or his opinions, but that he is viewed by Democrats as the man who can beat Bush.
EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT
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