How a Michigan Do-Over Would Hurt Obama

[Algorem]

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/mar2008/db20080312_591049.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives

A June contest would take a legion of college students out of the mix and pump up older, blue-collar Clinton supporters

by David Kiley

As the battle for the Democratic nomination drags on between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton, the debate over whether Michigan and Florida should redo their primaries intensifies. The Democratic National Committee threw out the results of these votes when Michigan and Florida moved up their primary dates without permission from party elders. Now Clinton is eager to see the primaries held again: Capturing those delegates could save her candidacy. Obama the frontrunner is understandably more reluctant to risk his lead in new contests.

That's especially true of Michigan. Clinton scored 58% of the vote in Michigan's January primary. Though there were no other candidates but Dennis Kucinich on the ballot, the vote indicates how strongly Clinton would play there. Her victory in neighboring Ohio also gives a hint of how she could perform in a repeat primary. Obama, in recent weeks, has not connected with working class white voters the way Clinton has in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Like Ohio, Michigan is experiencing tremendous blue collar job losses and home foreclosures. The official unemployment rate in Michigan is about 7%. But the real number is higher, perhaps in excess of 10%, because the government statistic does not take into account those workers—who have taken early retirement and buyouts from the automakers and auto parts companies—who want new jobs, but have not filed for unemployment benefits. Michigan also has the third highest home foreclosure rate in the U.S., with one in ten homes currently in foreclosure proceedings.

The Spring Break Effect

There's another reason behind Obama's distaste for a do-over. If Michigan holds another primary or caucus, it will be in June at the earliest. By that time, college students at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wayne State University in Detroit, and Michigan State University in Lansing will all be on summer vacation. "No question, June is a much more complicated month for college students to play a big role than during the regular school year," says Ronald Fortier, an Obama supporter and student in Ann Arbor, Mich...

[AlertLurker]

1. I was begiining to think that even kryptonite could not hurt Obama.

[Demeter]

2. Bunch of Baloney, IMO

Hillary's toast, and Michigan will put the jam on her candidacy.