The Iowa Caucuses: Five Not-So-Unlikely Surprises

[bemildred]

The smart money — not to mention the latest polls — gives an edge to Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in tonight’s Iowa caucuses.

But take a couple hundred thousand Midwesterners, pack them into gyms and libraries and town halls on a frigid Iowa night, add a heaping measure of peer pressure to the equation, and, well, anything can happen.

Here are five unlikely results you that shouldn’t be shocked to see when the final precinct tallies come in:

1) John Edwards Wins Going Away

more

[IndyOp]

1. A turnout of 200,000 - wow. The last item is very interesting...

I teach at a Big 10 university and am very interested in the trends in youth participation in politics...

5) The Youth Vote Makes All The Difference

Consider this fact: Likely caucus goers born after Watergate prefer Obama to Hillary Clinton 56 percent to 11 percent. The support for Obama among young women is even stronger.

There’s no doubt the under-35 crowd are Obama’s base. And he’s done a remarkable job organizing them. He’s hired the former political director of Rock the Vote. He’s reached out to 17-year-old high school seniors — his “Barack Stars” — for support. And if you’ve been to an Obama rally this political season, you know he’s got the star power to get them “fired up” and “ready to go.”

Obama’s campaign manager, David Ploufe, pointed to this secret trove of voters back in September, writing that “polls consistently under-represent in Iowa the strength of Barack’s support among younger voters… Of course, there are organizational challenges associated with maximizing this support, but we are heavily focused on that task.”

And here’s the thing. In the last Iowa caucus only 124,000 people showed up. Obama doesn’t need to bring 50,000 new caucus goers into the process. Given how tight this race appears to be, 5,000 or even 500 could easily push Obama over the edge.

How confident is Obama’s camp about turning out new caucus goers? They’re predicting a total turnout of 200,000.

We’ll see soon enough.

[bemildred]

2. I am looking forward to comparing it with the actual results.

Rolling Stone has a sterling record in political reporting.

[bemildred]

3. So let's see. We have:

1.) Edwards wins going away: No
2.) Clinton comes in third: Yes
3.) Romney springboards towards inevitability: No
4.) Ron Paul clips McCain: No
5.) The youth vote makes the difference: Yes (for Democrats anyway)

Two out of five, admittedly against the media consensus.