Hotline: a Republican's Take (dailykos)

[katty]

more: http://www.dailykos.com/

Hotline: a Republican's Take
by DemFromCT
Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 12:54:02 PM PST
This one's for fun. It's helpful (always) to read the material that comes from R Blogistan and especially helpful to put yourselves in the other guy's shoes. When the non-partisan Hotline provides it, so much the better. This "lay of the land" article from GOP pollster Steve Lombardo is a good read:

We have some hypotheses that we think will be determinants in the election tomorrow:

1. Republicans have not closed the GCB gap far enough. We believe that the narrowing of the GCB is in part a natural occurrence (Republicans and some swing voters coming home) and also some improvement in the environment for the GOP, but it remains a huge hurdle for the Party. In 1994, eve of the election polls showed Republicans with anywhere from a 4 to 7 point GCB lead. The two most recent polls in this election show Democrats with a similar 4-7 point lead.
2. Democrats do better in polls than they do on Election Day. Simply put, Democrats under-perform because a large segment of their core vote is made up of Independents and young people -- both of whom are less likely to actually vote on election day.
3. The above means that Democrats will win on Tuesday but not by the margins that many people think.

Projections:

[trumad]

1. He picks Webb to lose to Allen... wrong

The Webb/Allen poll is at 52/44--Webb

[katty]

2. yeah, wrong - I think Webb will make it