By Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer
June 6, 2006: 11:15 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) – A new retirement risk index released Tuesday estimates that 43 percent of working-age households are not likely to have enough retirement income to replicate their current standard of living.
The Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College created the index and defines "at risk" to mean those households projected to fall at least 10 percent short of their income target in retirement.
The organization assumed a base target of 73 percent of one's pre-retirement income for all households. In other words, a household with $100,000 in annual income before retirement should be able to generate $73,000 from all sources, including savings, Social Security and pensions. Targets, however, vary according to marital status, gender and income.
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Lastly, they assumed retirees would annuitize savings, and tap their housing wealth through a reverse mortgage. Neither practice is common, but the CRR made the assumptions since both are ways to maximize how far one's resources can stretch.
CRR researchers did not, however, factor in the costs of a potential health care crisis for two reasons: the increase in healthcare costs is hard to predict and only a percentage of households will experience a catastrophic health situation that will throw off finances considerably.
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more:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/06/retirement/risk_index/index.htm?cnn=yesTo summarize those last two paragraphs: These are the most optimistic assumptions possible, so 43% is likely to be too low an estimate.