The Demographics of the Future

[KingM34]

Like any other species, populations within the human race expand and
contract as they interact with their environment and come into contact
with other populations. Scientists can trace the expansion of the Greeks or can see the remnants of Spanish mixture with the native population of the Americas through genetic studies, but it is only in the modern times that we have the information, the statistical tools, and the awareness to watch this transition as it occurs.

Some demographic predictions for the next hundred years:

Read the rest: http://theopinionator.com/Politics/futuredemographics1.html

[Demeter]

1. I Thought The World Population Was Expected to Peak and Fall Off

based on recent trends in births and deaths.

[KingM34]

3. yes, but...

Sure, but that's the world population. That's like noting that the population of the Dakotas is contracting without taking a look at Las Vegas.

Indeed, it's the relative increase and decline of populations that makes for great demographic shifts.

[AX10]

2. America and Europe will become more "conservative"? Why?

"White, secular society will have largely disappeared, replaced by ethnic minorities and religious conservatives with their large families."

"France and Britain will be at least fifty percent non-white with large, restive Muslim populations.
Eastern European countries like Russia will still retain their traditional ethnicities, but will hold little
political power as their populations will have shrunk greatly through low birth rates and emigration.
Europe's white population will begin to slowly recover as it follows a more conservative path like the
United States, only starting some twenty or thirty years later. There will be massive unrest by and
against immigrant communities that will slow the demographic transformation of the continent, but
not end it."

[KingM34]

4. Look at this article

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3376&page=0

"Across the globe, people are choosing to have fewer children or none at all. Governments are desperate to halt the trend, but their influence seems to stop at the bedroom door. Are some societies destined to become extinct? Hardly. It’s more likely that conservatives will inherit the Earth. Like it or not, a growing proportion of the next generation will be born into families who believe that father knows best."
.
.
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" competes with many other male visions of the good life, and for that reason alone is prone to come in cycles. Yet before it degenerates, it is a cultural regime that serves to keep birthrates high among the affluent, while also maximizing parents’ investments in their children. No advanced civilization has yet learned how to endure without it."

[AX10]

5. Quite disturbing to think that we could fall back into a dreary past.

[documaker]

6. Nothing dreary about people of color

we can do better I will predict.

[KingM34]

7. I don't think that's what he means

Nothing dreary about people of color, but there's something dreary about returning to a patriarchal society where a woman "knows her place." That's what the above poster is saying, I think.

[silverweb]

8. One guy's opinion.

Based on...?

He offers nothing to back himself and his opinions up -- just a vague and lack-luster _profile_.

So why should we care what he thinks? Personally, I think he's way off base.

[fedsron2us]

9. Exactly . Its second rate soothsaying

based on the flawed assumption that all current trends will continue uninterrupted into the future. For example, predictions of patterns of religious belief are notoriously difficult. How many people in the Roman Empire in 200 CE would have believed that in a little over a century that Christianity would have gone from being a minor presecuted sect to the state religion ? Who in the year 600 CE could have predicted the emergence of Islam from nowhere to a the position of great world religion within the space of one hundred years. It would be interesting to run the clock back to the early decades of the 20th century and attempt to predict the state our current world using the sort of trend analysis used in this article. I would be prepared to lay good money that the predicted outcome would bear relatively little relation to the current reality.