The Great Fear Stagnation and the War on Social Security
Monthly Review
Lead Editorial
April 2005 Issue
David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s, recently opened an article, “Good, Gloomy or Grim in 2005?,” with the words: “Growth tops the wish list
, but even recession wouldn’t be all that bad, given that recovery always follows. The big fear? Stagnation” (Business Week Online, January 10, 2005).
This assessment is important enough we believe to deserve closer scrutiny. Wyss suggests that a cyclical downturn since it would be automatically followed by a cyclical upturn represents a less serious threat to the accumulation process than a continuation or a deepening of the stagnation that has plagued the U.S. and world economy in recent decades. Stagnation is usually understood as a long period of slow growth, weak employment, and weak investment. It is as evident in business upturns, which tend to be weak and dependent on artificial stimulants, as in business downturns. Stagnation thus represents the underlying economic trend in which the normal business cycle ups and downs occur. It does not lead automatically to its own reversal, and can linger on endlessly—no wonder that it rather than recession constitutes, according to Wyss, “the scariest scenario.”...
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