Era of cheap oil over, says Kuwait official

[cthrumatrix]

Era of cheap oil over, says Kuwait official
by Mohammad Almezel



Manama: The era of cheap oil is gone forever, a Kuwaiti official said.

"Prices will never go under the $40 per barrel mark," Hani Hussain, Kuwait Petroleum Corp's chief executive, told Gulf News in an interview yesterday.

Hussain spoke on the sidelines of the 14th Middle East Oil and Gas Show which opened yesterday in Bahrain. Prime Minister Shaikh Khalifa Bin Salman Al Khalifa welcomed participants. "We know there is huge demand for crude oil. This has pushed prices higher than most of us anticipated," Hussain said.

snip

http://www.energybulletin.net/4704.html

more

Shell, Exxon Tap Oil Sands, Gas as Reserves Dwindle
by Alejandro Barbajosa

RELATED NEWS:
The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production...

A letter from oil exploration insider...

US Dept of Energy office supports Peak Oil theory...

NZ Greens Co-Leader Jeanette Fitzsimons Full Speech: “Picnic for the Planet 2005”...

US report acknowledges peak-oil threat...

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Shell Canada Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Clive Mather says oil from his Athabasca project, where tar sands are boiled to produce crude, can cost twice as much as drilling in the North Sea. And it's worth every cent, he says.

``If we had access to unlimited conventional oil, I guess the interest in Athabasca would diminish quite quickly, but that isn't the case,'' Mather said in a Feb. 3 interview in London. ``This is high-cost oil, there's no question about that. At current prices, it's still very good business.''


snip

http://www.energybulletin.net/4385.html?PHPSESSID=477c402bbd7eacb0c05316a175cd3be3

Like a frog immersed in warm water....about to "boil"...we are slowly immersed in "peak oil".

[ktowntennesseedem]

1. And the solution is:

Drill more oil out of Alaska! We can make up the difference, buy less of the expensive foreign crude, and keep the prices low for our SUV's and Hummers! At least that's the lie that many will hear and believe.

Too bad the extra oil in Alaska won't be available for use for many years, even if we begin to build oil rigs tomorrow, and there is only enough to help us save a few cents a gallon for a couple of years.

Seriously, wonder how long it will be before we are refer to our current $2 rate as the good-old-days.

[The Doctor.]

2. At that point we won't even be thinking of gas prices...

as our unemployment levels will be well over 50%.

The 'good old days' will be when we remember being able to eat more than a few times a week.

The 'good old days' will be when we had houses with heat in them.

The 'good old days' will be way back when grocery stores had food on the shelves.

The 'good old days' will be when there were still trees to cut down and animals to poach.

Right now, I look around at all we have that so many American sheep take for granted.

The solution will be a temporary system of socialism whose legacy will plague wealthy Americans fo decades to come.

Only Nuclear Fusion might save us, if only our leaders had the brass to level with the American people and invest in it.

[teryang]

3. Next step is GTL

Not enough money is being spent on this technology. There are three companies involved outside Exxon and Shell:

Syntroleum
RTK
Sasol

Sasol has the largest GTL project of the small companies in Qatar.

Converting gas and other hydrocarbons to liquid diesel, much cleaner than the diesel we are accustomed to is one stop gap measure that should be getting a lot of attention and isn't. Some of that 600 billion a year spent on defense should go to the building of this costly but economically feasible method of converting gas to liquid fuel. Instead the federal project with Syntroleum is a miserable little demonstration project for a city bus line.

[VegasWolf]

4. Hey ScwhartzenEgg, buy more Hummers!!! n/.t

[mhr]

5. Excellent Peak Oil Lecture - Dr. David Goodstein - Caltech Lecture Series

Author of "Out of Gas: The End Of The Age Of Oil"

Streaming Real Media

56K - http://today.caltech.edu/theater/5602_56k.ram

Medium Broadband - http://today.caltech.edu/theater/5602_bb.ram

Full Cable/DSL - http://today.caltech.edu/theater/5602_cable.ram

Lecture Page Link Here:
http://today.caltech.edu/theater/list?subset=science

Book Link Here:


http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbnInquiry.asp?userid=My7Ct36BTj&isbn=0393058573&itm=1

His concluding prediction: Civilization will end as we know it by the end of this century!

[NYdemocrat089]

11. I looked at that book the other day.

It looked very interesting. I'm thinking of writing a paper on the oil peak next year.

[Lorien]

20. It will anyway

natural resources to run out in less than 50 years, crop failures from global warming could begin in 20 years according to the World Wildlife fund. We've been breeding and spending ourselves into extinction.

[MrModerate]

45. Thanks heavens -- I'll be dead by then! n/t

[mhr]

6. Short Term Solution

50 Mpg Plus

[Sin]

35. What car is that

and were can i find a place to look at prices on them and or get one.

[mhr]

40. It Is A Smart Car Made By Mercedes Benz

The web site link is here:

http://www.smart.com/-snm-0135145948-1109959136-0000030533-0000002799-1110820731-enm-is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/WFS/smart-content-Site/-/-/-/Default-Start

Unfortunately, they are not available in the US yet - soon though.

[truthisfreedom]

41. you don't have to drive those three obnoxious young men around

with you, do you?

[NickB79]

44. I'd prefer this

http://www.greatchange.org/footnotes-1-liter-car.html

100 km per liter translates into ~250 mpg!

[osiristz]

7. The myth of peak oil

And who do you think controls what the "Kuwaiti" official says?

Check this out before deciding on whether the 'experts' are telling us the truth about oil reserves.

http://www.vialls.com/wecontrolamerica/peakoil.html

Here's a little more although i'm not big on Rense articles.

http://rense.com/general63/myth.htm

I think it's a poly to keep the oil investors heavy in the pockets.

Afterall, they need a raise too!

[mhr]

9. Trouble Is No Petroleum Geologist Has Verified The Russian Claims

That's all they are at this point in time: claims.

[mhr]

10. "The End Of Suburbia" - A Very Good Movie About Peak Oil

http://www.endofsuburbia.com/

The movie features several experts including Mathew Simmons, an adviser to the Bush/Cheney on energy.

Edited version of documentary End of Suburbia (24min):

http://911busters.com/video/IQ1_20_END_OF_SUBURBIA_VIDEO_24.2_.wmv

Simmons now believes that the Saudis are maxed out and they have no spare capacity for increasing production.

Simmons will publish a book to this effect later in 2005.

[JohnyCanuck]

12. And check out this before you decide abiotic oil is the answer.

No Free Lunch, Part 1 - A Critique of Thomas Gold's Claims for Abiotic Oil
by
Jean Laherrere

No Free Lunch, Part 2 - If abiotic oil exists, where is it?
by
Dale Allen Pfeiffer

No Free Lunch, Part 3 - Proof
by
Ugo Bardi & Dale Allen Pfeiffer

[bpilgrim]

13. goin with the gut, eh?

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

psst... pass the word ;->

peace

[hatrack]

14. Right, abiotic oil. Next up, the magic gas pill that runs a car all day

And then there's the miracle of cold fusion, and my cousin knows this guy who's got nearly all the bugs worked out of a capacitor that produces more energy than goes in!

:eyes:

[Tweed]

31. "Russia Proves 'Peak Oil' is a Misleading Zionist Scam"

Now THAT'S a headline!

[Viking12]

43. "New York squanders America's dwindling oil profits on fast cars..

and fast women."

I like that part of the headline better. Party!!:toast: :beer: :tinfoilhat:

[Renew Deal]

36. Vialls.com has about as much credibility as Rense.

Which is none. Have a look around. http://www.vialls.com

[mhr]

8. Long Term Solution

[Up2Late]

15. I'm torn between Peak Oil and this being a self fulfilling prophecy.

Question To ALL:

1) When was the last time A 55 Gallon Barrel of oil Sold for under $10.00 a Barrel?

and

2) What was the most important reason or reasons for this?:think:

[Up2Late]

21. Since NO one cared to guess, or are still looking for the answers, the...

...Answer is:

A1) 1998

and

A2) The elimination of the U.S. Budget Deficit and the Strong U.S.Dollar and U.S. Economy.

I'd be glad to provide links to these numbers, if anyone is still interested in this subject, or can't find it themselves:evilgrin:

[mhr]

23. Peak Oil Says Oil Production Will Peak Independent Of Price

That magical day that Oil Production does Peak is a more a function of demand than strictly price.

What we are already starting to see is that production is becoming constrained. In other words, demand has grown such that the Producers, OPEC and non OPEC, cannot keep up. Classic laws of supply and demand say that a constrained commodity will rise in price as demand increases.

So, the price of oil was in 1998 is not really relevant to the Peak Oil discussion. Oil is a finite resource and global production will Peak. The only question is when. That is the debate.

[Up2Late]

24. I'm Very aware of the Peak Oil Debate, I've followed it for years...

But, how has this Suddenly become such a CRISIS?

When Oil was priced at $10 to $20 Dollars a Barrel, we had Loads of excess capacity. Why would that be? Because the profits were so low, they could have produced more oil, but chose NOT to, But now that Oil is $40-$60 Dollars a Barrel, Suddenly everyone is producing at Max Capacity. Why? Because the more they produce, the more the Profits they make.

I agree that Peak Oil is a Real Issue, But don't you find it at all strange, that it only becomes an issue when the Price gets above $40 Dollars a barrel? Why? Because Oil is Priced and Sold in U.S. Dollars, the value of the Dollar has Much more to do with the Price than a simple Supply and demand Model, that's way too simplistic. There are about a dozen other variables to factor in, and one of the biggest (and we know this is done, see the ENRON case) is artificial market manipulation.

Peak Oil, suddenly becoming a factor, to be splashed about in the Headlines, is one of those factors that you must look at sceptically, and ask, Who is this saying this, and what does this person have to gain by saying this. And Yes, I am very much up on the Peak Oil Debate, falling on the side of asking "Why isn't this getting more Press?"

Here is my main source, I don't think their are any better:
<http://www.fromthewilderness.com/>

I don't know if you are old enough to remember what was going on during the "Arab Oil Embargo" in the early 70's or the other "Production Cutback" near the end of the 1970's, both of those were Manufactured crisises" that drove Prices Higher. I think it's worth considering that this one may be too.

You should read this article, written at the U.N. about the suspected reasons for the Iraq War. Then consider that, now that we know gaining control of the last MASSIVE reserve of Cheap oil has almost certainly slipped away, What's plan B? Plan B, Change the debate.

The Cheap Oil is still there, Under Iraq, but I think the term "Cheap oil" is very misleading. I think we should refer to it as "High Profit Oil" and "Low Profit Oil." The Oil is still under Iraq, it hasn't changed, but who controls it has.

Please read this artical(or at least, Reason #3, about how much it costs to produce oil in different parts of the world) before responding.

<http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/12heart.htm>

(here are some small snips, as just a tastes of the artical)

Oil in Iraq: the heart of the Crisis
James A. Paul
Global Policy Forum
December, 2002

...Why Iraq’s Oil is so coveted by the big companies

Oil in Iraq is especially attractive to the big international oil companies because of three factors:

(1)high quality/high value product
Iraq’s oil is generally of high quality because it has attractive chemical properties, notably high carbon content, lightness and low sulfur content, that make it especially suitable for refining into the high-value products. For these reasons, Iraqi oil commands a premium on the world market.

(2)huge supplies
Iraq’s oil is very plentiful. The country’s proven reserves in 2002 were listed at 112.5 billion barrels, about 11% of the world total. With little exploration since the nationalization of the industry in 1972, many promising areas remain unexplored. Experts believe that Iraq has potential reserves substantially above 200 billion barrels. The Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy has estimated that Iraqi reserves could possibly total over 400 billion barrels. If new exploration fulfills such high-end predictions, Iraq’s reserves could prove close to those of Saudi Arabia, now listed at 260 billion barrels but likely also to go considerably higher as well. The Department of Energy assessment says that...

...(3)exceptionally low production costs, yielding a high per barrel profit
The US Department of Energy states that “Iraq’s oil production costs are amongst the lowest in the world, making it a highly attractive oil prospect.” This is because Iraq’s oil comes in enormous fields that can be tapped by relatively shallow wells, producing a high “flow rate.” Iraq’s oil rises rapidly to the surface, because of high pressure on the oil reservoir from water and from associated natural gas deposits...

[mhr]

29. Yes, But - China Is The 800lb Gorilla And Has Grown Substantially

Since 1998 - your benchmark year.

All the analysis I have seen says that world slack capacity did not start tightening until very recently.

Much of the slack capacity has been consumed by China's economic growth and new demand for oil.

[Up2Late]

30. It still deserves a LOT of skepticism, especially when this artical...

...comes from "Gulf News" based in the UAE and Dubai. Not being skeptical of this, is like a smoker reading in the Tobacco News that smoking's not bad for you, and not being skeptical.

<http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/BusinessNF.asp?ArticleID=155972>

I've seen no actual proof that China is consuming all the excess oil, we just sort of take their word for it, They are burning a lot of Coal, but nobody (in the Media or Government) ever seems to back up these claims with proof.

And I can tell you, with great certainty, that what is written in this article, will be proved wrong (never argue a point using absolute terms, like, "Prices will never go under the $40 per barrel mark," Using absolutes almost guarantees you being proved wrong.

[bpilgrim]

34. not when you factor in exponential growth

Al Bartlett, a physics professor emeritus at the University of Colorado (Boulder, CO)
http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

peace

[Up2Late]

47. Do you have any of this in text form? that a very big file for most.

I listen to it as soon as I can.

Thanks:thumbsup:

[hatrack]

39. China has huge and growing demand for refined diesel, as well as oil

The reason? China's grid is so crappy and prone to breakdowns that factories, hotels, offices, apartment buildings throughout China have their own generators - or banks of generators, depending on need.

When (not if) the electricity fails in a given city or region, hundreds, if not thousands of generators kick in to fill the gap until the electricity comes back on. If you can imagine a fair-sized automotive plant or electronics facility, you can imagine the generator capacity needed to make up for missing electricity.

[Up2Late]

46. Fortunately, this is a temporary problem and solvable with simple...

...longterm solutions.

Solution 1: repair and upgrade China's power grid

Solution 2: develop Bio-Diesel. I don't know how much you know about Bio-Diesel, but basically, it's vegetable Oil (Corn, Peanut, Soy, Cotton Seed, Sunflower, and even waste Cooking Oil)

Most Diesel engines produced in the last 5 Years can run on 100% Bio-Diesel, All can run on a 20% blend. It also burns Much cleaner, and is better for a Diesel engines. Here is a link to The National Bio-diesel Board (NBB) which is the national trade association representing the bio-diesel industry <http://www.biodiesel.org/>for more info

I also found several recently published reports that DO NOT support the Hype, we keep hearing, that China's demands for Crude Oil are growing so fast, that it is the reason for rising prices. In fact, the February 2005 IEA report shows China's Total Petroleum consumption is falling.

Also, all the screaming about how much China's imports are growing at 11-15% as compared to total GDP, but China's Total GDP is Tiny compared to the U.S.

China's TOTAL Imports for 2003 are LESS than the U.S. 2004 Trade Deficit (most likely 2003 also, I don't have that number handy).

In short, the "China sucking up all the world's Oil" hype, is just that, Hype. Check out these New reports linked below, lot's of great info in all of them:

<http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf>

This is the website it came from <http://omrpublic.iea.org/>

China 2004 Facts and Figures Report
<http://www.china.org.cn/english/en-shuzi2004/index.htm>

This page is amazing to me, it's part of a U.S. Government website and shows the top 15 Countries we import Oil from.
Hint SAUDI ARABIA is #3

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html>
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/pet_data_publications.html>
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_monthly/current/pdf/psmall.pdf>

I fully understand all the confusion around this issue, below is a link to a BBC News web page. Even the BBC give ZERO comparative data, only saying China's imports rise 15%. The quotes are even taken out of context.

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4191683.stm>

[mbperrin]

38. A barrel of oil is 42 gallons.

nt

[alarimer]

16. Meanwhile OPEC members are still making a gazillion dollars

I think they say this stuff to drive the price up. I mean it could be true but consider the source.

[masmdu]

17. The Solution is at hand....Blacklight Power..."Fuel Cost inconsequential"

refueling every 30,000 miles or so. (page 7 of 11)

http://www.blacklightpower.com/pdf/BD_Motive.pdf

[fortyfeetunder]

18. Get a horse

Yeah, and horses will end up costing as much as cars will.

[Lorien]

19. Good ones already do

they don't call the rich the "horsey set" for nothing! I purebred 4 year old can easily go for $10,000-15,000.

[agincourt]

22. Surely the national news media,

wants answers now from the administration about what their plan for peak oil is? The republicans must have some kind of think tank study, besides drilling ANWR? Where are the freedom cars? Tumbleweed blows. Crickets chirp. Oh slap the democracy babes with the streamers on the cover of Newsweek. Much better.

[SoCalDem]

27. No No No No ..The public needs to hear about

Jacko's pajama party
Wacko defendents Gone Wild in Court
Martha and her ankle jewelry..it's a good thing!
and of course we can always go back to Booby-Gate SuperBowl Party
and then there's always Brad & Jennifer's break-up
"Freedom's bustin' Out all over the world" by GWBush & the Trash Talkers


Heaven forbid "bad news" ever being reported with the gravity it deserves..


Granny will be eating Fancy Feast
Beleaguered middle classers who have kept all the economic plates spinning since 9-11 will lose their "last chance" fresh start if they "helped the sconomy" a bit too much...might lose their houses too.

Just keep "fillin' 'er up"..and pay no attention to the crook behind the pump

[Up2Late]

28. The "Freedom Cars" are under development in JAPAN

While the U.S. Auto/SUV Industry CEO's are sitting around, Comparing the size of their SUV's

[Conservativesux]

25. What, soccer mom's wont be driving huge SUV's anymore? Good!!

Amen to that !

[VegasWolf]

26. Looks like the Boosh/Cheesy retirement plan right on track. n/t

[cthrumatrix]

32. the whole soc sec debate is just a distraction from this issue

[okieinpain]

33. hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!! wooooooo!!! when will

the papers start banging bush over the head about high energy costs. oh I forgot he owns the papers, never mind.

[mmonk]

37. Oil may drop

to the mid 30's a barrel before too long. Markets tend to over correct. All will depend on expenses related to future oil extraction (and of course, world stability). Demand will increase quite a bit in any case, however.

[NickB79]

42. Actually, you're probably right

I doubt there will be much demand for oil when a global Great Depression tanks the economies of the US, China, India, Japan and the EU.

Markets can only correct themselves when there isn't an issue of a shortage of the actual product. When the product itself is in short supply, prices have a tendency to just keep going up and up. With most other products, when one becomes expensive to buy, people can switch to another, similar product that is more common to replace it. We have no such replacements for oil. Oil sands and tar shales, when mined for oil, are still very expensive compared to what we pay for oil pumped out of the ground. Until the world economies go belly-up, or until cheap fusion power is perfected, oil prices will keep going up.

[cthrumatrix]

48. I doubt it...not much excess in the system...finite resource and

increasing demand

[mmonk]

49. Current demand can't be

met, yet a market can still overcorrect. There can be a temporary collapse in price due to selling because nobody wants to get caught too high and will short sell. Then it will rise back to a truer equilibrium. I doubt the reserves OPEC members say they have is the crude markets want, but is low grade crude. However, this scenario may be averted with an attack on Iran causing a spike.

[silverweb]

50. We. Don't. Need. Oil.

There are multiple technologies available that, in combination, could quite easily eliminate our need for fossil fuels. With a fraction of what we have invested in obtaining, processing, and distributing oil, we could completely replace it.

The various options that are available right now, today, need only the investment of some capital and the will to make the change.

The only things holding us back are the entrenched oil establishment and the inertia of habit.

Here's my next car:

http://www.theaircar.com/models.html

:bounce:

[Up2Late]

51. Verrrrrry Interesting

Looks kind of like the "SmartCar" Check it out, great website:evilgrin:

<http://www.smart.com/-snm-0135145948-1110911756-0000005057-0000000071-1110922688-enm-is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/WFS/smart-content-Site/-/-/-/Default-Start>

[silverweb]

53. Cute cars.

But the web site doesn't really give much technical information on them. What do they run on? Electricity? Ethanol? Gas?

[th2techdude]

52. That would be nice.

Then we wouldn't have to rely on oil so much. Now if only we were traveling in space looking for more oil..........

[whistle]

54. Nearly all of the nation's power plants use fossil fuels to generate

...the electricity now used in the country. Add 300 million vehicles to that demand grid for 6-8 hours every day for recharging and where will all of the new electrical power come from? I'm not trying to be critical, but there has been no national energy plan in place to address this massive crisis, so I don't believe that we have any feasible way at the moment to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Does increasing electrical energy costs from $0.075 per KWH to $1.00 to $2.00 per KWH sound like a way to go?

[silverweb]

56. Fuel oil can be replaced.

Engines can run on any combustible substance -- biodiesel and ethanol for instance. New technology is already turning animal waste into oil. Small farms are generating power from the methane of animal waste. One of my brothers works at a power plant that generates electricity from methane from a landfill site. I've even read about finely ground plant stalks being sprayed into a combustion chamber as fuel.

All of that is not even taking into account other available natural sources of energy, such as wind, solar, and tides. Combine all of the above and we don't need oil.

Supply and demand controls the price. As availabity of renewable fuels increases, the price will come down. A little help from our government in the way of initial investment and subsidies wouldn't hurt to get things started -- and it would still cost a lot less than fighting foreign wars for oil.

All we have to lose is the rigid mindset and unleash that legendary Yankee Ingenuity. With some investment and some imagination and some will, we don't need oil.

[Boo Boo]

55. Oil is used

For the production of food: Nitrogen fertilizer, insecticides, and so forth.

Making things: vinyl, polyester, fiberglass, epoxy, carbon fiber, kevlar, solvents, etc. The list goes on and on and on.

It is used to mine ore for steel, aluminum, copper, tin, and all that shit. There are certainly other ways to mine (shovels), or other ways to power the huge machines that are used in strip mining, but they will all cost more than fuel derived from Oil.

People always use cars as reason we need Oil, but it's just one piece of the puzzle. Our economy is based on Oil. That's all there is to it. Increases in the price of Oil effects the price of virtually everything. The cost of a boat, for instance, has increased a lot in recent years because the fiberglass and resin used to make it comes from Oil. Cost of materials is rising.

This kind of thing has a big effect. Think of the material wealth of even an average middle class person in the US. The toys we buy: boats, jet skis, snow skis, mountain parkas... The consumer goods like computers and calculators, cars, TVs... Anything that uses plastics or other Oil-based materials will get increasingly expensive.

It eventually cuts down on the amount of stuff people buy, which means the economy shrinks, jobs go away, all that bad stuff.

The simple way of putting is: It's not just fossil fuels, it's also chemicals. Companies like Dow Chemical are based on Oil. That's their cheap source of compounds to make their products from.

The price of Oil effects virtually everything. Our economy is Oil-based. It is the economic indicator. Oil was $10 a barrel in 1999, which was also a boom year for the economy. When Cheney, during the 2000 campaign, predicted that the economy was stalling, that projection was based in part on the knowledge that Oil prices were going to increase dramatically.

There's a reason we invaded Iraq, and it don't have diddly to do with spreading Democracy and Freedom. As Cheney put it: "Our way of life is non-negotiable."

[silverweb]

57. Inertia is death...

...and America has become stagnant. We have become lazy and allowed ourselves to become oil dependent, while only a few creative souls have continued to look for substitutes. But they do exist. The fact is that petroleum-free plastics and lubricants and any other products you can name are already available. Our automobile-dependent, plastic-dependent, energy dependent society does not have to rely on oil. See above post re Yankee Ingenuity. Use your imagination.

[Boo Boo]

58. Sure.

I imagine that petrochemical companies like Dow do quite a bit of research along those lines too. But, if it was cheaper, they'd probably be doing it now.

Oil is a chemical treasure trove, and it makes things cheaper. The question is how expensive does Oil have to get before other types of plastics, etc., start to replace the current stuff? We see that rising Oil prices hurt the economy. Do we change over at $100 a barrel? There's certainly not much doubt the change is coming.

Regardless of the level of Oil consumption, are we going to end up living in a $100 a barrel world? A $200 dollar a barrel world? What happens when the cheap/plentiful chemical gravy-train stops running?

Also, saying there are alternatives is a pretty general statement. You can produce plastic from Palm Oil, for instance, but Palm Oil is in no way equivalent to the Black Gold.

My point was not that we are completely utterly screwed, but, rather, that Oil is a cheap, plentiful source of materials and chemicals in addition to the energy equations being talked about. AFAIK, there is no equivalent source for this kind of stuff.