STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 15 November

[ozymandius]

Monday November 15, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 66 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 339 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 28 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1089
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 12, 2004

Dow... 10,539.01 +69.17 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq... 2,085.34 +24.07 (+1.17%)
S&P 500... 1,184.17 +10.69 (+0.91%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.20% -0.05 (-1.27%)
Gold future... 438.30 +2.90 (+0.66%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[RawMaterials]

1. Dow Jones acquires CBSMarketwatch

http://www.theregister.com/2004/11/15/dowjones_buys_marketwatch/

Dow Jones publishes the Wall Street Journal and its online incarnation wsj.com which charges for access and claims 701,000 subscribers. MarketWatch was founded in 1997 and runs cbsmarketwatch and bigcharts.com as well as some subscription services.

[ozymandius]

3. We'll need to keep an eye on the charts.

I suspect changes are on the way. Maybe we'll finally have a chart for light sweet crude oil.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Chris Sumner

WAITING FOR THE NEXT SET

Many distortions exist today and the pressures in financial markets and geopolitical events seem to be more and more intense. The casual reader might not notice the potential disturbance in the bond market as Bloomberg reported low inflation. “The Commerce Department on October 29th estimated that in the third quarter, the inflation rate for consumer purchases excluding food and energy was 0.7 percent, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 1962.” <1> The article went on to discuss how economists are less bearish on treasuries due to projected growth cuts resulting from the price of oil and consumer spending. This type of news could only be reported by someone with either a Keynesian economic background or by someone not noticing the potential rogue wave of inflation beginning to surface. These types of reports are sad and it is what drove me to seek knowledge from alternative sources (like FSO). We all know there will be some poor and unfortunate souls who get caught inside when the waves start crashing and I suppose it will be because most people are still looking at the shore (past experience or historical models) instead of out to sea where the waves are coming from…

-cut-

I’ve read much speculation about where we’re going from here after the election. In my opinion this storm has been long building beyond anything the executive office or financial planners can control. Mike Hartman’s charts on Wednesday show the currency markets (waves) are building from the storm. One thing I know for sure is the Federal Reserve is monetizing debt at increasing rates, thus telling us the opposite of the financial press. Our Fed Chairman said it best in 1966:

The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which-through a complex series of steps-the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned.

Those from the Austrian School of Economics know there is no free lunch. It appears the consumers are doing their part this coming holiday season so far as the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales rose 0.2 percent as expected last month (excluding car sales). Should we see more weakness in bond prices it will be interesting to see the latter effects on a heavily indebted US economy in 2005. I’m not aware of any past economy, which successfully consumed its way back to prosperity.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[FLSurfer]

54. I am so tired of hearing about

inflation, excluding food and energy.
That's about all I can afford to buy anymore.
What is MY inflation rate?

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.88 Change +0.19 (+0.23%)

Fed's Gramlich Urges Fix for Budget Gap

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&e=13&u=/nm/economy_fed_gramlich_dc

ANN ARBOR, Mich. (Reuters) - U.S. budget deficits pose a problem for both the domestic and world economies, but there seems little political will to fix them, Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Board Governor Edward Gramlich said on Saturday.

"We have big deficits now and the politics of deficit reduction, if you want to call it that, are terrible. If you even dare talk about raising anybody's taxes, that's political death," Gramlich said in a speech at the University of Michigan.

"In 10 years when the huge baby boomer cohorts begin to retire, we will really have problems," he added, saying the national savings rate was at a record low and would only weaken further when demographics shifted.

"This is a significant problem," he said.

Gramlich urged a return to the budget limits of the late 1990s that have since expired. "I thought that was quite successful," he said.

The Fed governor said many Asian countries, particularly Japan and China, are fueling their export industries by supporting the dollar and keeping their own currencies cheap.

"How long can they do that? If they begin to have inflation in their own countries, which is getting close in China, they are going to probably have to stop," Gramlich said.

...more...

Dollar May Drop to Record for Third Straight Week, Survey Shows

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aXMWnl1ovEpI&refer=top_world_news

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop to a record against the euro for a third consecutive week and weaken versus the yen on expectations the Bush administration will turn a deaf ear to complaints from policy makers in Europe and Japan.

Sixty-three percent of the 56 strategists, investors and traders polled by Bloomberg on Nov. 12 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro. The U.S. currency slid to an all-time low of $1.3006 per euro on Nov. 10.

Trading in the dollar, down 4.8 percent against the euro in the past month, has been orderly and markets are operating in a favorable way, a U.S. Treasury official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said in Washington on Nov. 12. European Central Bank officials, including President Jean-Claude Trichet, described the moves as ``brutal'' while Japanese Vice Finance Minister Hiroshi Watanabe said the dollar's slide has been rapid.

``The Bush administration has left it up to the market, and the market has decided that the dollar's value is unsustainable,'' said Matthew Cobon, who manages currency risk in London at Deutsche Asset Management, which oversees about $70 billion.

Demand among international investors for U.S. securities is dwindling as the current account and budget deficits widen, said Cobon, who predicts the dollar will drop to $1.35 per euro and 100 yen in three to six months. Foreigners added to their holdings of U.S. assets at the slowest pace in 10 months in August, the Treasury said on Oct. 18. Figures for September are released tomorrow.

...more...

The Empire State Index is the only report today.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

6. Snow Says `Strong Dollar' Is `in America's Interest'

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aegpbYvsn5B8&refer=top_world_news

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. supports a ``strong dollar,'' Treasury Secretary John Snow said, making his first remarks on the currency since George W. Bush was re-elected president on Nov. 2.

``We support a strong dollar -- a strong dollar is in America's interest,'' Snow told reporters in Dublin today. ``Currency values are best set in open and competitive exchange markets.''

Snow's comments repeat what the U.S. has said about the dollar since he came into office in January 2003. Measured by the Federal Reserve's Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index, the dollar has shed 21 percent since Bush came to power in January 2001. Under Bill Clinton's last two Treasury secretaries, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers, the index advanced about 24 percent.

Expectations that the Bush administration won't protest a decline in the currency to narrow the current-account deficit prompted Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to lower its forecasts for the dollar against the euro and yen on Nov. 11.

The Bush administration's language suggests it's happy to see the dollar weaken, said Adam Cole, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. ``Nothing has really changed and the U.S. is still pretty happy with a policy of benign neglect,'' Cole said.

When asked about the prospect of government efforts to stem the euro's increase, Snow said: ``Our basic policy is to let open, competitive markets set the values.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. Treasury Sec urges faster China forex reform

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6813707

DUBLIN, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The United States is convinced that China intends to loosen its currency peg, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Monday as he encouraged the Asian giant to speed up the process of reform.

"Their public statements embrace the idea of moving to flexibility. They've taken a lot of steps to get their economy into a position where they can do so," he told a news conference following an address to students at Dublin City University.

"We praise them for that and we urge them to move as fast as they can," Snow said when asked whether the Bush administration had any intentions to increase the pressure on China for currency system reform.

...very short newsblurb...

:wow: Now that really supports a "strong dollar" policy!

[ozymandius]

10. When will Snowjob just shut his fool piehole?

No one is buying that song-and-dance routine anymore. This two-faced gag is becoming very tiresome.

[UpInArms]

13. SnowJob is not fooling anyone - here's more drivel

Snow seeks to shift focus away from dollar

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1751191-6078-0,00.html

DUBLIN - With protests growing around the world about US deficits and a weak dollar, US Treasury Secretary John Snow has made it clear that's not what he wants to talk about during his European tour.

<snip>

Aides say Snow is not preparing to be lectured about US deficits, but instead will tell the Europeans they need to fix their "growth deficit", which Washington blames for the global imbalances that have led to trade deficits and, in turn, a drop in the dollar to record lows against the euro.

The stop in Ireland is symbolic, US Treasury aides say, highlighting how lower taxes and decreased regulation can spur business investment and economic growth - a model Snow sees as an example for other economies in Europe.

<snip>

Moreover, Snow does not want to give credence to the notion of a crisis in currency markets that could end up being self-fulfilling, say analysts.

US officials, while steering clear of any steps to talk down the dollar that could lead to a devastating loss of confidence, are believed to be privately content with a lower dollar that helps US exports be more competitive, boosting the American economy.

<snip>

"They've got to look at lower tax rates, they've got to look at more open labour markets, they've got to look at reforming their pension systems. There is is an awful lot on the table that they could do. It takes political leadership."

Europeans have been critical of US policies leading to a massive current account deficit which widened to a record 166.2 billion dollars in the second quarter.

...more...

(warning: slow loading site)

[ozymandius]

16. What, pray tell, is a 'growth deficit'?

Intuition tells me that it is something like massive credit-induced expasion. But I would really like to know what the hell he means.

Then there's this part that bugs me:

"They've got to look at lower tax rates, they've got to look at more open labour markets, they've got to look at reforming their pension systems. There is is an awful lot on the table that they could do. It takes political leadership."

Does he want them to dissolve the social safety net like we're doing in this country? Does he want them to destroy labor unions? If so - he has some gall. I do not anticipate a warm reception for Secretary Snowjob.

[UpInArms]

19. sounds like SnowJob wants the entire world to go

as far into debt as the US - a low water mark if there ever was one - and he is "water seeking its own level".

I do hope the rest of the world tells him to put his lousy ideas where the sun doesn't shine.

Sounds to me like he is encouraging a race to the bottom for everyone.

It is rather distressing to me that I had to find this article in South African media. :(

[ozymandius]

11. Dollar falls to fresh low against the yen

The under-pressure US dollar fell to a seven-month low against the yen in early trade on Monday, with the Japanese currency buoyed by strong equity markets and economic data.

The yen pushed Y0.5 higher to Y105.18, its strongest level since April, before slipping back to Y105.52, as the Nikkei 225 jumped 1.9 per cent overnight in the wake of solid US consumer spending data on Friday and further falls in oil prices. Japanese sentiment was further aided by news that bankruptcies fell 23.3 per cent year-on-year in October, the 22nd straight monthly decline.

Equally importantly, some in the market were playing down the prospect of Japan's Ministry of Finance initiating massive intervention to prevent the yen firming past a set level against the dollar, as happened in the first quarter of 2004.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=2&u=/ft/20041115/bs_ft/7f7bf57a36fb11d9a8bb00000e2511c8

[54anickel]

18. Heh-heh, somebody didn't like gold hitting 440.00 today. Check out the

Ino chart:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s

Last trade 437.3 Change -0.9 (-0.21%)

Open 438.2 Previous Close 438.2

High 440.0 Low 437.0

Bid 437.3 Ask 437.8

[UpInArms]

21. Gold holds ground at 16-year high

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38306.4160471065-826834285&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures made only modest moves Monday morning, holding ground at a 16-year high even after logging a gain of $4 last week. "Buying gold has been a decent hedge against dollar losses," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. But "the bulls may be overpopulated in the market, this equates to a scenario that makes gold vulnerable to profit taking which can result in a sharp sell-off," he warned. December gold is down 20 cents at $438.10 an ounce. Mining shares are mainly lower, with the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) down 0.3 percent.

[UpInArms]

5. Empire state index up slightly to 19.8

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD1D062BB%2DCAD0%2D46EF%2D92F1%2DBE3A7EE29983%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area expanded slightly in November, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Monday.

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 19.8 in November from 17.4 in October.

The increase was in line with the consensus forecast of Wall Street analysts.

The new orders index fell slightly to 18.5 in November from 21.2 in the previous month. Shipments rose to 21.8 from 19.1 in the previous month.

The employment index fell to 10.8 in November from 17.7 in October.

Price indexes remained near their record-high levels.

The prices paid index fell to 53.4 in November from 59.2 in the previous month.

The prices received index rose to 17.0 from 15.0 in October.

Expectations of future activity remained upbeat, but not as optimistic as in the prior month.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Struggling Sun Micro turns into layoff maker

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6490671/

Is the sun setting on Sun Microsystems Inc.'s once-proud campus in Newark?

In the past year, the Santa Clara-based maker of enterprise hardware has shed nearly 900 employees from the 1.4-million-square-foot campus, its largest worldwide.

In the past five months alone, the struggling server and storage maker has quietly notified the state and county of 585 worker layoffs.

That includes 161 workers whose official last day will be Nov. 29, according to the Alameda County Workforce Investment Board. That is in addition to 300 jobs lost when Sun publicly announced in January that it would close its hardware factory in Newark.

In the past four years, Sun has laid off 1,585 employees in Newark, which at its peak reportedly employed 3,500 workers.

<snip>

Sun has announced plans to lay off more than 10,000 workers worldwide in the past three years. It still has more than 30,000 employees in 46 countries.

...more...

[ozymandius]

9. Bank of America economists named top forecasters

Economists at the Bank of America have been named the top private sector US economic forecasters based on their record over the past four years.

Mickey Levy, BoA's chief economist, and his colleague Peter Kretzmer were awarded the 2004 Lawrence R. Klein prize for economic forecasting, sponsored by Arizona State University's business school.

The award, given each year, singles out the forecasters that make up the panel of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, the monthly newsletter, who had the best record. This includes economists at industrial companies, academics and professional forecasting firms, as well as banks.

Forecasters were judged on their record over the period 2000-03 in forecasting growth, inflation, interest rates and unemployment. The decision is based on a four year period in an attempt to separate forecasting skills from random chance.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=1&u=/ft/20041115/bs_ft/d3d821b0370611d9a8bb00000e2511c8

[UpInArms]

12. Dollar mixed after hitting seven-month low against yen

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38306.3808176157-826829904&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar was mixed in morning U.S. trading hours, after hitting a seven-month low against the Japanese yen overnight. The dollar was last at 105.30 yen, down 0.3 percent from Friday. The buck traded as low as 105.16. The dollar had stabilized against the euro after coming within a whisker of a test of the all-time low of $1.3005 per euro. In recent trading, the euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.2960. A regional measure of U.S. manufacturing, the Empire State index, came in near expectations with a reading of 19.8 vs. 17.4 a month ago.

[54anickel]

14. Monetary Disorder

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Couple of snippets on the way down to the featured article:

snip>

Dollar Consternation Watch:

November 10 – Market News International: “French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin argued Wednesday that the dollar exchange rate is out of line with economic fundamentals and called on international leaders to remedy the situation. ‘The dollar is too low and this does not correspond to state of the various economies… The crisis of the dollar, the collapse of the dollar is a real problem and I truly hope the international community will deal with all the consequences of the situation.’”

November 11 – Bloomberg (John Fraher): “Former European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said the U.S. current account deficit is the biggest risk to the dozen-nation euro region’s economy, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung said, citing an interview. The record deficit ‘can’t continue’ and the euro’s exchange rate will probably bear the brunt of any dollar depreciation adjustment as a result of it…Duisenberg retired in November last year. Duisenberg said the deficit will probably eventually lead to Asian and Latin American currencies appreciating against the dollar…”

snip>

Excerpts from the Bond Market Association Research Quarterly

The average daily volume of total outstanding repurchase (repo) and reverse repo agreement contracts totaled $4.82 trillion for the first three quarters of 2004, an increase of 21.4 percent from the average volume of $3.97 trillion during the same period of 2003. Daily outstanding repurchase agreements averaged $2.8 trillion through September, an increase of 21.0 percent from the $2.32 trillion volume during the same period of 2003… Through the third quarter of 2004, over $256.8 trillion in repo trades were submitted by Government Securities Division participants, with an average daily volume of approximately $1.4 trillion...

With three months to go in 2004, the asset-backed securities market already surpassed the previous issuance record of $585.0 billion, set in 2003. New issue activity totaled $661.1 billion in the first three quarters of the year, 54.8 percent higher than the $427.1 billion issued in the same period of 2003… The resilient housing market has created an environment in which consumers extensively use home equity as a source of additional funds. Issuance in the HEL (home equity loan) sector increased 75.1 percent in the first three quarters of the year, to $309.2 billion, compared to $176.6 billion in the same period in 2003...

snip>

Monetary Disorder:

I would like to proffer that the primary issue today with respect to unrelenting Credit inflation is missed in the interminable “inflation vs. deflation” debate. Instead, we should focus our analytical attention on Monetary Disorder and attendant destabilizing excess Liquidity. Granted, this is not an area without significant challenges. There are no price indices to measure for upward or declining trends, nor is there really much that we could hope to quantify. One might have expected that the phenomenon of heightened Monetary Disorder would have manifested in expanding risk and Credit premiums. Instead spreads have done just the opposite and collapsed. Monetary Disorder has much to do with speculative market dynamics, as it does with provoking unpredictable and aberrant system behavior.

I am again drawn to the use of the “Financial Sphere” and “Economic Sphere” framework in an attempt, in this case, to raise some issues relevant to the concept of Monetary Disorder. It is valuable to examine the effects of Credit inflation and attendant liquidity excesses on the structure of the economy, as well as on financial system and asset market dynamics.

Imagine a prosperous small community that had accumulated tremendous (economic and financial) wealth over generations. Over time it had become possible to import most of its goods from less wealthy communities operating with cheaper labor and generally lower cost structures. Prosperous Community - with a gradual but steady increase in prices - lost its capacity to competitively manufacture most goods. Yet there was little concern, as the air was fresher, and most workers preferred the employment opportunities and environment offered by the “service” sector. Imported goods became only cheaper and more plentiful, and Prosperous Community was able to use a larger percentage of its rising income for the purchase of services and luxury items. And the more income and wealth rose, the greater the demand for the expanding array of services and luxury items offered by the New Economy.

Traditional inflation was quite low and quiescent. The powerful combination of steadily rising income, declining interest-rates and easy Credit Availability stoked asset inflation and the booming “financial services.” Citizens could spend most income on consumption, but still have plenty of resources for accumulating “wealth” for retirement. An increasing amount of funds were directed to investment and retirement accounts, much of it borrowed directly or indirectly against inflating home prices.

more...

[54anickel]

17. Here's an interesting article posted by cal04 in another thread - it's

long, but interesting. It gets into much of what we've discussed here before regarding a petro-euro and the possible demise of the US$ as the single reserve currency. I found it interesting as it covers the history of the US$ fairly well, as it relates to PNAC anyway.

http://www.williambowles.info/guests/dollar_euro.html

[indigolady]

34. that article was over a year old

[54anickel]

37. Welcome Indigolady.

Yes, that article is dated, but some articles are timeless in regards to the information they offer - especially with the benefit of hind-sight. :hi:

[UpInArms]

15. 9:37 EST markets are open (and pre-opening blather)

Dow 10,523.13 -15.88 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,080.61 -4.73 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,180.74 -3.43 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.190% -0.010

NYSE Volume 46,331,000
Nasdaq Volume 107,629,000

briefing.com

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Buyers still showing some reserve at the moment as futures indications continue to point toward a lower open... Separately, Lowe's (LOW) reported Q3 earnings of $0.66, a penny better than analysts' expectations... Dow Jones (DJ) announced it will acquire Marketwatch.com (MKTW) for $18 per share or approximately $520 mln... Microsoft (MSFT) has also gone ex-dividend today, which is why you see hit crossing the tape at 27 and change versus Friday's close of 29.97

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Expectations remain set for a slightly lower open for the cash market... The only piece of economic data of note this morning was the Empire State Index... The November survey came out with a reading of 19.8 versus a consensus of 20.5.

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.0. Futures trading continues to suggest a slightly lower open for the cash market (both the Dow and the S&P surged 1.5% last week while the Nasdaq gained 2.3%)... Traders waiting on Empire State Index regional manufacturing report due shortly; consensus is 20.6

7:59AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures market is little changed this morning, but relative to fair value, is suggesting a slightly lower open for the cash market... Oil is below $47/bbl and overseas markets have shown strength, but expected profit taking after the market's 3-week rally is acting as a limiting factor.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends last week's breakout above June's high crossing at 1532.50. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Last week's breakout above June's high has opened the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1563 later this year. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1528.35 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 0.50 pts. at 1556 as of 5:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it extends last week's breakout above monthly fib resistance crossing at 1170.60. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1163.96 would signal that a short- term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 1.10 pts. at 1183.80 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

22. 10:08 EST numbers and blather (almost all better now)

Dow 10,553.71 +14.70 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,086.94 +1.60 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,183.50 -0.67 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.200% +0.000

NYSE Volume 205,931,000
Nasdaq Volume 348,882,000

10:00 ET Major indices are trading lower in the early going despite December crude oil ($46.73/bbl -$0.59) holding below $47/bbl on easing concerns over winter heating oil supplies... Airlines, however are showing some strength while networking, software and semiconductor sectors have also extended last week's gains... Sectors showing weakness this morning are energy, biotech, drugs, and transportation... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1057/1395. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1067/1400.

[ozymandius]

23. more blather - profit taking

Stocks Decline Early on Profit-Taking

NEW YORK - Stocks sagged Monday as investors collected profits after three weeks of gains and looked past mergers and acquisitions news including Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co.'s $1.5 billion bid for several candy brands of Kraft Foods Inc.

-cut-

The broader gauges also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index declined 3.07, or 0.26 percent, to 1,181.10, following a 1.54 percent rise. The Nasdaq composite index fell 2.65, or 0.13 percent, to 2,082.69, after a weekly gain of 2.28 percent.

Oil prices dropped to a two-month low, continuing a three-week trend that has taken crude futures down from their record $55-per-barrel level. Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down 59 cents at $46.73 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Investors were also weighing the pending resignations of several key members of President Bush (news - web sites)'s cabinet following the election, including Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites).

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=7&u=/ap/20041115/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street&sid=95609876

[UpInArms]

20. Abraham, Powell latest to leave White House

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38306.4112042245-826833797&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham are resigning from their White House cabinet positions, reports said Monday morning. The high-profile departures are the latest post-election changes in the Bush administration.

but wait... that's not all:

9:52am 11/15/04 WHITE HOUSE TO ANNOUNCE 4 RESIGNATIONS TODAY

[ozymandius]

24. Some people have called this "rats leaving a sinking ship" but then I

believe that the ship has already sunk - it's just the stubborn understains that are holding the hulk together.

[54anickel]

25. Global: The Trade Wildcard (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041112-fri.html#anchor0

snip>

I have long argued that this profound imbalance is an outgrowth of a huge flaw in the macro structure of a US-centric global economy. America, for its part, likes to feel victimized by its enormous trade deficits and the pressures on manufacturing companies and job creation that such imbalances are perceived to have spawned. But these trends are very much a by-product of an unprecedented shortfall of national saving -- a net national saving rate that has plunged to a record low of 1-2% over the 2003-04 period. Lacking in domestic saving, the US must import surplus foreign saving in order to grow. And it must run massive current-account and trade deficits in order to attract that capital -- inflows that are now up to $2.6 billion per business day as America’s current account deficit ballooned to 5.7% of GDP in mid-2004. At this rate, America’s current account deficit now absorbs more than 80% of the world’s surplus saving.

But this is a global problem, and the United States deserves only part of the blame. In the zero-sum world of trade flows, every deficit has a surplus on the other side of the ledger -- even if the global growth accounts can’t quite get the figures to add. And that’s, of course, where the surplus nations of Asia -- and, to a lesser extent, Europe -- enter the equation. These economies are in many respects the mirror image of America -- externally-dependent growth machines that enjoy limited support from internal demand, especially private consumption. As such, exports have become their lifeline and export competitiveness has become the overriding imperative of their growth agendas. It’s at this point where the world’s trade dynamic has taken an especially dangerous twist in recent years. In order to prevent their currencies from rising and thereby putting pressure on competitiveness, surplus nations have recycled massive reservoirs of foreign exchange reserves back into dollar-denominated assets in order to support the US dollar. That is the functional equivalent of a subsidy to US interest rates -- further fueling the voracious appetite of already over-extended and saving-short American consumers. In essence, that’s the basic conundrum of today’s unbalanced global economy: It is not a stable arrangement. A bi-polar world of consumers (the United States) and producers (mainly Asia) is on an exceedingly reckless path that is leading to ever-wider disparities between current-account deficits and surpluses.

How and when this gets resolved is anyone’s guess. For what it’s worth, I think the pressures are building for a major adjustment in 2005. That’s what the recent decline in the dollar is all about. And that’s also the message to take from the ominous build-up of trade tensions. In my view, global imbalances have now gotten to the point where something has to give -- either the relative price structure (currencies) that shapes the mix of world trade and capital flows or the political commitment to the trade framework itself. This venting of global imbalances is a natural outgrowth of an increasingly unstable world.

As such, I would frame this venting as a trade-off between currency adjustments and politically-inspired trade frictions. To the extent the dollar’s adjustment is impaired, the risks of protectionism could very well rise as a result. To date, the dollar’s adjustment has been unusually small in relation to the state of global imbalances. On a broad trade-weighted basis, the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar is down only about 11% from its early 2002 peak. That’s nothing for a US economy with a current account deficit of 5.7% and rising. By contrast, the same broad dollar index fell 28% in the second half the 1980s when America’s current account gap peaked at 3.4%. Today’s US economy has about twice the current account problem it had back then but has experienced only about one-third the dollar depreciation. For that simple reason alone, I would argue that the dollar adjustment has been unusually constrained.

snip>

There is tragic irony in all this. In large part, today’s US trade deficits are made in Washington -- not Beijing. Lacking in private saving, outsize US budget deficits are leading to ever-widening current-account and trade deficits. Try telling that to your favorite politician! Unfortunately, with the Bush Administration likely to exacerbate the long-term budget deficit problem with its penchant for permanent tax cuts, the current account and trade problem is undoubtedly here to stay. Unwilling to accept responsibility for the role it plays in creating this problem, Washington has opted to pin the blame on the politically expedient scapegoat -- China. This, of course, borrows a page right out of the script of the late 1980s, when Japan was the scapegoat of America’s last episode of twin deficits. Unfortunately, the risks today are far greater than they were back then. Not only are global imbalances on a much greater scale, but job-related angst is a far more potent political force. Now that the US presidential election is over and the “free-traders” have won, there is great temptation to breathe a sigh of relief. My advice is don’t take too deep a breath.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Oil Prices Decline on Expected Stock Build

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Oil-Prices.html?oref=login&oref=login

LONDON (AP) -- Crude futures sank below $47 per barrel Monday as traders looked toward another expected build in U.S. crude stocks and shrugged off another attack on oil fields in Iraq and a looming strike in Africa's largest exporter Nigeria.

snip>

Output has been reviving in the Gulf of Mexico, where daily production is still about 13 percent below normal levels but significantly higher than a month ago, when oil companies struggled with the damaging after-effects from Hurricane Ivan.

Traders have been looking at the crude levels and largely ignoring distillate stocks, which have fallen for eight straight weeks, ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Distillates -- including kerosene, heating oil, jet fuel and diesel -- become premiums at this time of year at the onset of winter while added pressure is put on jet fuel because of increased flights during the Christmas holidays.

Lower distillate stocks have also been recorded in Western Europe and Japan.

``The strength in the market in the near-term should come from heating oil, where inventories are less than adequate and demand could jump at any time,'' Piotrowski said. ``To make up for the low distillate stocks, refiners could soon be asking for more crude ... when and if cold weather hits.''

more...

[54anickel]

27. Federal Reserve doesn't say so, but big mortgages might become troublesome

http://www.freep.com/realestate/renews/bigloan14e_20041114.htm

It was a soothing message: The United States is "not in the midst of a home-price bubble," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said recently, arguing that soaring home prices are not at all like the soaring Internet stocks that collapsed four years ago.


Hopefully, Greenspan's right. But even so, you should be leery of grabbing the biggest mortgage you can get. There's plenty of risk in today's high-priced housing market.


Big gains in home prices have led Americans to take out ever-larger mortgages and the total amount of mortgage debt rose about 12 percent each of the past two years.


Ten years ago, the typical household carried overall debts equal to about 80 percent of its annual disposable income. By the end of last year, that figure was 108 percent, thanks mainly to bigger mortgages. :wow:

more...

[MrUnderhill]

28. Something in there doesn't make sense.

Ten years ago, the typical household carried overall debts equal to about 80 percent of its annual disposable income. By the end of last year, that figure was 108 percent, thanks mainly to bigger mortgages. :wow:

Annual "disposable" income should be a small fraction of total income, yet "overall debts" are only 108% of that? I could buy that as an average if it didn't include your mortgage (usually 2-3 times your annual income by itself), but those last few words imply the mortgage is included in the calculation??

[54anickel]

29. Wondered the same thing - how do they define disposable income? What's

left after taxes? ;-)

[MrUnderhill]

31. I think you're right.

I was thinking of disposable income as those funds left over after spending everything that "HAD" to be spent each month (taxes, mortgage, food, utilities, loan payments, etc). So it would be 10-20% (for me anyway).

After-tax income seems to make more sense.... but that number would still be awfully low. The old rule of thumb used to be that your mortage shouldn't exceed 25% of your net monthly income. At today's rates, that's still a mortgage of more than two and a half times your annual salary. And almost ALL mortgage programs today have gotten far more liberal with their qualifying ratios (and too many people have chosen ARMs).

If mortgage debt is included, that 108% still seemd way too low. If it isn't??? That's a pretty high number. Not for many people, but as an "average" it includes all of those people who carry no debt at all.

[54anickel]

30. Wages Defy Recovery (Japan)

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-ft-japan15nov15,1,5181881.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Despite three years of strong economic growth, salaries are falling as Japan's appetite for part-time labor grows.

TOKYO — In recent months, officials at the Bank of Japan have been scratching their heads at a puzzling phenomenon. In spite of nearly three years of robust economic growth, a run of dazzling corporate profits and recent signs of a tightening labor market, wages have been falling.

Even in the second quarter, when the economy was growing at an exhilarating 6% a year, total remuneration was still falling by 1.1%. This has been the seventh straight year of decline.

If the United States has experienced a largely jobless recovery, Japan is going through a wageless one.

The failure of economic growth and corporate profits to lead to higher pay, stronger demand and rising prices has short-circuited what many economists had assumed was a straightforward path to inflation. In August, the wholesale price index rose 1.8% year over year, but in the same month consumer prices fell 0.1%.

more...

[54anickel]

32. Bond Market Should Fear $43 Trillion Retirement Tab

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_wasik&sid=a9A9X6CrGgoA

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- As U.S. President George W. Bush prepares to ``spend political capital'' to reform the retirement system, the best way of telling if his emerging plan is sound is to watch from the summit of the bond market.

If Bush and Congress fail to prudently fund Social Security and Medicare, it may mean paring benefits or selling mountains of government debt to pay for the increasing costs of retiring baby boomers. That may increase interest rates and hurt everyone, from homebuyers to corporate treasurers.

Due to an aging population, fewer future workers and rising health-care spending, the Medicare hospital insurance fund will be broke in 14 years, and the Social Security program trust fund will be bust by 2042. These scenarios aren't just a crisis in the U.S.; every industrial country faces them.

All told, the two U.S. programs represent a black hole of unfunded future liabilities of $43 trillion, estimates Laurence Kotlikoff, professor of economics at Boston University and author of ``The Coming Generational Storm'' (MIT Press, 2004).

``How are we going to pay these bills?'' asks Kotlikoff. ``The government will have to print more money and you'd want to sell your bonds. Maybe the (projected double-digit) rise in interest rates would get the politicians' attention.''

Social Security Solutions

``If I were holding bonds, I'd be very nervous,'' Kotlikoff adds. ``He (Bush) seems geared up to make an extremely bad fiscal situation worse by cutting Social Security taxes,'' Kotlikoff says.

more...

[54anickel]

33. Bush Rally Fuels Fund-Flow Surge (Suckers rally?)

http://www.thestreet.com/funds/gregggreenberg/10194091.html

Money surged into both conventional equity funds and so-called exchange traded funds this week, in another sign that a bit of speculation has returned to the market.

AMG reports inflows of $4.3 billion for the week ended Nov. 10, up from $2.3 billion last week. TrimTabs says equity funds took in $3 billion, a sharp rise from last week's intake of $1.8 billion. Meanwhile, money market funds suffered substantial outflows as money moved off the sidelines and into what has been a rising market since President Bush's re-election.

Analysts say inflows substantially above the $1 billion range point to speculation in the market, while flows below that level are more often the result of automatic purchases in employee retirement accounts. A $1 billion move might seem dramatic, but it is not considered to be out of the ordinary in the $7.5 trillion mutual fund market.

"Besides the pickup in conventional fund flows, cash has been pouring into exchange traded funds at a rate near the highest of the year," states Carl Wittnebert, director of research at TrimTabs. "So the weekly flow into all equity mutual funds was over $7 billion."

TrimTabs says equity funds that invest primarily in U.S. stocks had inflows of $2.6 billion, compared with inflows of $1.8 billion the prior week. International equity funds had inflows of $410 million, substantially better than last week's take of $31 million.

more...

[54anickel]

35. Rubin, Rogoff Say Dollar Threatened by Mounting U.S. Deficits

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aXU7mTwsBAyI&refer=us

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Americans' appetite for imported goods and the Bush administration's penchant for spending more than it takes in are heightening the risk of a further decline in the dollar, a rise in interest rates and slower economic growth.

Concern among economists is intensifying because the U.S. trade deficit, a record $496.5 billion last year, is forecast to keep growing. The trend is surprising economists such as Edward McKelvey of Goldman, Sachs & Co., who thought a decline in the dollar would shrink the gap by making imports more expensive and U.S. exports cheaper. The dollar has fallen 18 percent since 2002 against a basket of six major currencies.

The $120 billion spent so far on the Iraq war, along with borrowing to finance highways and Social Security, is prompting experts including former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to wonder if foreigners may lose confidence in U.S. investments. Losing the $2 billion the U.S. attracts daily from central banks and overseas investors might create a ``debt maelstrom,'' Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in September.

snip>

Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, says the dollar is likely to fall another 15 percent to 20 percent on a trade- weighted basis over the next two years. Should the markets overshoot, as Rogoff said often happens, the U.S. currency risks plunging 30 percent to 40 percent. The fallout would send interest rates and inflation higher and bring on recessions in Europe and Japan, which are dependent on exports to the U.S.

snip>

``The fiscal deficit is a very good reason to dump U.S. assets this minute,'' Laurence J. Kotlikoff, chairman of the Boston University economics department and author of ``The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to know About America's Economic Future,'' said in an interview. ``The long-term implicit debt is $51 trillion,'' including the long-term costs of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. ``That's what really worries me, the unofficial implicit debt.''

more...

[errorbells]

36. Please post this I am new here!!!!!!!!!!! World Media Digest

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E-mail | Comments | E-Mail Newsletters | RSS

World Media Digest
Major bugs found in Diebold vote systems

http://www.forbes.com/technology/feeds/general/2004/11/...

11.12.04, 4:05 PM ET

United Press International

WASHINGTON, Nov 12, 2004 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- The voting machine controversy likely will linger after a look at the systems source code software from Ohio-based Diebold yielded reports of numerous bugs.

Diebold was one of three companies -- including Election Systems & Software and Sequoia -- that provided updated technology for the 2004 election.

Computer Science Professor Avi Rubin of John Hopkins University analyzed Diebold's 47,609 lines of code and found it uses an encryption key that was hacked in 1997 and no longer is used in secure programs.

The Digital Encryption Standard 56-bit encryption key used by Diebold can be unlocked by a key embedded in all the source code, meaning all Diebold machines would respond to the same key.

Rubin, his graduate students and a colleague from Rice University found other bugs, that the administrator's PIN code was "1111" and one programmer had inserted, "This is just a hack for now."

The implication is that by hacking one machine you could have access to all Diebold machines.

Copyright 2004 by United Press International

[54anickel]

38. Link's not working - Forbes already pulled it? n/t

edit to add:

I do remember seeing this article posted somewhere on DU from the original UPI source.

And welcome to DU. :hi:

[errorbells]

44. Try This!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DBD

and thanks for welcome :>

[54anickel]

47. Thanks - the article is from Friday, so it can't be posted in LBN, but

it can be posted in the 2004 election forum. Of course, if you post one more reply to me, I'll bet you'd be able to start your own thread. ;-)

Give it a shot.

[errorbells]

49. A shot heard round the world..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DBD

So far Diebold stock is down today...

Don't you think that a few more reports like this
from Forbes and programmers etc will bring the attention
back to what REALLY happened?

A breakdown in the voting system.

Bush did not win.

Thank u 54anickel

[54anickel]

51. You're welcome.....

Let me know if you still cannot start a thread. I think your post count is close though - but they do change the number of posts required from time to time - keeps everyone guessing.

[errorbells]

55. diEBoLD

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041115/clm069_1.html

I thought the stock might go up on this news.

LEON STAMBLER, Plaintiff, v. DIEBOLD, INC.,
http://www.consortiuminfo.org/antitrust/stdi.shtml

I have read a bit about LEON STAMBLER ..he invented ATM
...he waited too long to sue die bold and lost his case.
There is more to it than that but ...diebold seems to owe much to
STAMBLER. He is in his 70's now..


I don't own (DBD) btw and will never TRADE it.

[54anickel]

39. Sometimes It Takes a Sherlock (Sheesh, sounds like too much work to me!)

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/14/business/yourmoney/14watch.html?pagewanted=1&adxnnl=0&adxnnlx=1100536087-1ZcIA57qjKgtG6KLbYYsCg

ALTHOUGH the truly brazen accounting frauds of recent years are fading from view - remember Cendant, Enron and WorldCom? - investors must stay vigilant for bookkeeping practices that, while legal, mask a company's true condition.

Such is the advice of Robert A. Olstein, astute stockpicker and overseer of the Olstein Financial Alert fund. Mr. Olstein, a 37-year market veteran, is a master of analyzing financial statements and spotting anomalies that understate or overstate performance.

As Mr. Olstein explains, accounting rules require a lot of estimates, and that gives considerable wiggle room to company managers. "All corporations use some aggressive assumptions in the application of generally accepted accounting principles as management is heavily incentivized to make the numbers," he said. "When the numbers deviate from economic reality, you have to adjust them before reaching conclusions about future estimates and valuations."

While not every investor can pick apart financial statements the way Mr. Olstein can, they still have to be on guard. Happily, Mr. Olstein has revealed some of the tricks of his trade.

To illustrate how managers' assumptions can lead investors astray, Mr. Olstein cited two examples. In one case, the deviations from economic reality translate to an overpriced stock; in the other, an underpriced stock.

more...

[54anickel]

40. The new Chinese counterfeit game

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/14/business/chiip.html

SHANGHAI International pressure on China to stop its counterfeiters is producing an unexpected twist. Rather than just copying another company's product, many Chinese businesses are filing patents and claiming other intellectual property rights to the counterfeits locally, in effect becoming the legal owners, at least in China.
.
Companies in the counterfeiting industry, which make everything from knock-offs of Calloway golf clubs and Zippo lighters to brand-name clothes and DVD players for a small fraction of their price in the West, may then even sue foreign companies for ostensibly stealing their patented products.
.
Whereas counterfeiters used to hide from the law, they now use the law to strengthen their position, legal and trade experts say.
.
"Chinese industry has a phrase for it," said Xiang Wang, an intellectual property lawyer at the Shanghai office of the international law firm White & Case. "They call it 'a Great Wall of Patents."'
.
Some companies will copy or slightly modify foreign patents and file them under a kind of Chinese protection - a utility or design patent - that is not thoroughly examined under the current Chinese patent system, so they are granted quickly and easily, Xiang said.

more...

[nolabels]

46. Don't you love the free enterprise when it uses market force

Steal it, mark it up as yours and kick ass on anybody that claims different. The moron marketeers don't know nuttin about dog-eat-dog

[54anickel]

48. Heh-heh! Yep, those screaming "free markets, Laissez faire" haven't

done their homework in sizing up the competition yet. Careful what you wish for....

[54anickel]

41. Promises To Pay

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoy/hoy111504.html

When I sit down and think about what a dollar really is; I am amazed at how simple the answer is. In simple terms a dollar is a "Promise To Pay." When examined from this point of view one begins to understand to true meaning of deficits. Now compound a promise to pay, one trillion times, seven trillion times or fifty trillion times. Gets a little frightening doesn't it?

When the owners of those "Promises To Pay" finally decide to collect on their debts what will they decide to settle for in payment? What do they want, as final payment, for having been so kind by accumulating our debt for all these years? The important point to remember is the fact that they have not been paid but only accepted a "Promise To Pay" as a pacifier for their goods and services. The story gets a little interesting when we look at it from this perspective. Just what could these owners of our "Promises To Pay" buy with their paper? I think the answer is anything they want! I think it is important to realize that the dollar is not payment but a pacifier until the possessor of that dollar decides what he wants to ultimately take in exchange for his products and service.

Now take a society that has temporarily lost its mind and gone on a buying binge where they are buying foreign goods and services at a deficit rate of $1.5 billion "Promises To Pay" everyday. Just exactly what are these people buying that is so important in their daily lives that they will eventually be selling their most prized and valuable assets, down the road, in exchange, to settle these outstanding "Promises To Pay?'

The most frightening point to this whole topic is the choice that the owners of these "Promises To Pay" will have when the time comes to rid themselves of these promises. These entities will have the option to purchase anything they want. Will they be like the consumers in the U.S., a kid in the candy store, or will they be intelligent and purchase the items that they will absolutely need to maintain or achieve the standard of living they now have or want to achieve? My suspicion is that they will understand what they need and make very prudent purchases.

In today's world, nations are approaching a point in time where the true leaders recognize the shortcomings of their nations and are taking the appropriate steps necessary to guarantee that their people have a sufficient supply of natural resources to meet the growing demands of their people. This new supply shall be purchased with the hoard of dollars that they have now accumulated.

more...

[54anickel]

42. A 52-day repo? That's a new one. That would come due Jan 6?

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

edit to add:

:tinfoilhat: The results of the 2004 election won't be official until the President of the Senate counts the votes out loud at a special joint session of Congress held on January 6, 2005.

http://www.vote-smart.org/election_president_what_is_electoral_college.php

[SouthernStar]

43. Chairman of the Fed leaving soon...

I heard somewhere that Greenspan is nearly done as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. How do you think this will affect the market for the long term?

[54anickel]

45. I think a lot will have to do with who is named as his successor. Short

term, as his retirement date gets closer, the markets will probably be pretty slow - one thing the market dislikes is uncertainty.
That's assuming it all holds together until then. There's only some much bale twine and prayers to go around these days. B-)

[54anickel]

50. Sometimes They Do Ring A Bell

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mauldin/mauldin111504.html

John Mauldin
November 15, 2004

It's Official: The Bubble is Back
What Are Those Analysts Smoking?
How Bear Markets Begin
Past Perception Dictates Future Performance

With many sub-market indexes hitting new highs, and given the recent performance of the market, how can I maintain we are still in a long-term secular bear market? Shouldn't we get back in, as so many advise? That is a question, and the subject of today's letter.

We will start with a few quotes, and then move on to my commentary. A. M. Clifford writes:

"We are witnessing today a most extraordinary financial phenomenon, in the form of a Stock Market which has advanced with a rapidity and to an extent unparalleled in modern financial history.

"Have basic conditions so changed that old standard of value are no longer applicable and must be either drastically revised or completely discarded? Are Economic Laws which we had come to regard as inviolable, no longer of value? Are the United States - now a wealthy capitalistic nation - entering upon an era of such industrial prosperity, that Corporate Earning Capacities will mount in the geometric progression and within a reasonable time support the present high prices for Common Stocks?

"Or are we wandering from the straight and narrow path of financial virtue, and pursuing a dangerous course, resting upon false financial doctrines, which will ultimately lead to distress and disaster? Will we look back upon the present as a time when we lost our heads and sense of financial equilibrium, and disregarded the operations of Economic Laws and what these laws taught us in the past and indulged in a wild speculative orgy which was certain, in the course of time, to bring a day of retribution?"

Mr. Clifford wrote those words back in December of 1928. His grandson, Tony Clifford, has been sending me some of his client papers and they are interesting reading. Tony notes: "My grandfather, A. M Clifford, was the nations first investment counselor -- Scudder Stevens claims notwithstanding. He started out in 1915 in Los Angeles (and the firm survives as Clifford Associates in Pasadena). Like Ben Graham, he was a financial analyst and wrote extensively to his clients with the belief that (like you) the more educated your clients are in your thought process, the easier it is to guide their financial decisions. And avoid the crash of 1929."

more...

[54anickel]

52. 12:28 and this is as exciting as watchin' the paint peel

Ain't worth the effort to type in the html for color changes. :P

Dow 10,539.01 0.00 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,086.22 +0.88 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,181.63 -2.54 (-0.21%)
10-yr Bond 4.2% 0.00
30-yr Bond 4.906% -0.006
NYSE Volume 689,199,000
Nasdaq Volume 973,052,000


12:05PM : The market opened lower and has held steady near the unchanged mark for most of the morning, with mixed industry leadership confining it to a tight trading range... Pressure has come in the form of profit taking, which has materialized following three weeks of solid gains for the indices... A nearly 3% decline in the price of crude oil, to $45.80/bbl (two-month lows) has not been enough to inspire buying interest in this market which remains held back by little conviction on the part of buyers (decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq have outpaced advancers)...
Biotech, transportation, energy, and telecom service have been some of the more notable laggards, whereas semiconductor, airline, health care, and retail have traded higher... The latter has come despite a better than expected Q3 earnings report from home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW), whose in line guidance has not been enough to keep shares afloat... Microsoft (MSFT), which went ex-dividend at the open, added some uncertainty in early trading, but has since turned positive...

The only piece of economic data this morning was the Empire State Index, which came out with a November reading of 19.8 versus a consensus of 20.5.... NYSE Adv/Dec 1459/1676, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1287/1644

11:30AM : Equities are giving up their early gains as the indices head towards fresh session lows... Adding little support in the way of earnings are shares of Lowe's (LOW 58.12 -2.13)... The second largest home improvement retailer beat analysts' expectations by a penny with Q3 EPS of $0.66 on sales of $9.06 bln... But the company appears to have disappointed investors when it failed to guide Q4 earnings "above" expectations, issuing Q4 earnings guidance of $0.58 to $0.60 per share, in line with the consensus estimate of $0.60...

Meanwhile, rival Home Depot (HD 43.57 +0.35), which reports its Q3 earnings tomorrow morning, has shrugged off the news and is trading higher in a down market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1390/1681, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1257/1620

[54anickel]

53. Where the Big Money's Flowing Now (Whatever)

http://biz.yahoo.com/special/volume04.html

Institutions trade in large sums of money and large blocks of shares, dwarfing the action of individual investors. An institutional purchase or sale of a stock usually means thousands of shares and millions of dollars moving the stock. It's called accumulation, and it is one of the most important signs that a stock has sunny days ahead. More...


Just felt the need for a little cheerleading today

[54anickel]

56. 1:05, oil dropping, buck's up and I've gotta run for a bit - today is dog

beautification day at my house. Gotta give the 2 boys haircuts and baths - sprucin' up for the holidays!

Dow 10,551.64 +12.63 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,091.11 +5.77 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,183.55 -0.62 (-0.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.207% +0.007
30-yr Bond 4.913% +0.001
NYSE Volume 795,344,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,117,420,000

1:00PM: The market edges a bit higher as oil sinks to its lows of the session... The December crude oil contract ($45.75/bbl -$1.57) continues to fall following the Nigerian government's comments asking unions to call off an indefinite fuel strike... But a sell off in oil is not the only issue putting pressure on the energy sector... Raymond James earlier downgraded several oil services companies, saying the combination of a typical post-earnings correction, a sentiment-driven sell-off (if oil prices trend lower) and some sector rotation, could trigger another 5-20% decline in the oil service sector...
Some oil service companies of note that were downgraded are Rowan Companies (RDC 23.65 -1.02), GlobalSantaFe Corp (GSF 28.00 -1.13) and Ensco International (ESV 29.10 -1.16)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1651/1566, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1402/1577


US$
Last trade 84.03 Change +0.34 (+0.41%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.74 Previous Close 83.69

High 84.05 Low 83.60

[UpInArms]

57. 3:04 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,544.33 +5.32 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,089.16 +3.82 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,183.40 -0.77 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% -0.008

NYSE Volume 1,124,505,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,502,341,000

3:00PM: Little change in the overall trend as the indices continue to trade in a narrow range... Separately, the retail stocks have provided a measure of support today with the S&P Retailing index up 0.4%... That particular index, incidentally, is up 22% year to date... With the earnings calendar once again dominated by retailers many investors, focusing more on fundamentals and leaving some of the technicals up to the day traders, will have their sights set on Wal-Mart (WMT 57.76 +0.91)...

The world's largest retailer, also a Dow component and constituent of the S&P 500, will lead the pack of earners tomorrow morning with Q3 results... Analysts expect Wal-Mart to earn $0.54 per share on $69.2 bln in revenues (a year ago, it posted Q3 earnings of $0.46 on sales of $62.2 bln)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1695/1583, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1500/1586

2:30PM: Choppy trading continues as the indices continue to vacillate near the unchanged mark... One transportation group failing to take advantage of the positive impact of lower crude oil ($46.85/bbl -$0.47) today is the trucking sector...

According to Raymond James, since higher expectations have already been priced into the stock prices of many trucking companies, as they have reaped the benefits of extremely tight driver capacity and strong demand, the firm downgraded Heartland (HTLD 21.63 -0.47), JB Hunt (JBHT 40.29 -1.32), and Landstar Systems (LSTR 68.19 -2.80) to Market Perform from Outperformon... J.P. Morgan was also responsible for adjusting its ratings on several truckers, downgrading shares of C.H. Robinson (CHRW 52.00 -2.49), and Expeditors Intl (EXPD 50.11 -1.12), and EGL Inc. (EAGL 30.86 -2.56) to Neutral from Overweight...

Last trade 84.01 Change +0.32 (+0.38%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.74 Previous Close 83.69

High 84.10 Low 83.60

Last tick: 2004-11-15 14:32:23 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

58. 3:50 paint peeling nicely - 1 dog clipped, 1 to go and then it's

TUBBY TIME!

Dow 10,536.27 -2.74 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,089.43 +4.09 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,182.60 -1.57 (-0.13%)
10-yr Bond 4.190% -0.010
30-yr Bond 4.895% -0.017
NYSE Volume 1,333,576,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,742,134,000

3:30PM: Buyers show some resolve, as sellers have been unable to gain much momentum throughout the session... Market internals, though, remain mixed going into the last half hour of trading... Tonight's small batch of earners is not likely to draw too much attention ahead of tomorrow's economic data... Tomorrow morning brings the October Producer Price Index (PPI), which comes out at 8:30 ET... Briefing.com expects the reading to come in at 0.5% (consensus is 0.6%) versus September's figure of 0.1%...
Note, if a stronger than expected change is reported, the market will show some added angst ahead of Wednesday's CPI report... On the earnings front, three Dow components report quarterly results tomorrow, with bellwethers Home Depot (HD 43.60 +0.38) and Wal-Mart (WMT 57.74 +0.89) out before the bell... Analysts are forecasting earnings of $0.57 and $0.54 per share, respectively... Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 19.28 -0.06) checks in after the close... Wall Street is expecting Q4 earnings of $0.37 per share on revenues of $21.2 bln...NYSE Adv/Dec 1725/1569, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1550/1571

3:00PM: Little change in the overall trend as the indices continue to trade in a narrow range... Separately, the retail stocks have provided a measure of support today with the S&P Retailing index up 0.4%... That particular index, incidentally, is up 22% year to date... With the earnings calendar once again dominated by retailers many investors, focusing more on fundamentals and leaving some of the technicals up to the day traders, will have their sights set on Wal-Mart (WMT 57.76 +0.91)...

The world's largest retailer, also a Dow component and constituent of the S&P 500, will lead the pack of earners tomorrow morning with Q3 results...Analysts expect Wal-Mart to earn $0.54 per share on $69.2 bln in revenues (a year ago, it posted Q3 earnings of $0.46 on sales of $62.2 bln)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1695/1583, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1500/1586

[UpInArms]

59. closing numbers, blather and dollar

Dow 10,550.24 +11.23 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,094.09 +8.75 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,183.81 -0.36 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.190% -0.010

NYSE Volume 1,451,170,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,894,915,000

Close: Stocks barely got off the ground from the get go, with the breadth of the market remaining mixed for most of the session... Profit taking took its toll on most stocks following a three-week rally that left the indies near yearly highs... A slew of analyst downgrades also exacerbated the selling in sectors such a oil & gas and trucking...

But buyers found some interest as the technical levels in December crude oil broke down, knocking the contract below $46/bbl intra-day to close at a two-month low ($46.87/bbl -$0.52), sending airlines higher and pushing energy further into negative territory... Most of the news though throughout the remained rather company specific... Lowe's (LOW 59.25 -1.00) beat analysts' expectations by a penny but after issuing disappointing "in line" Q4 guidance, the stock was punished... Microsoft (MSFT 27.39 +0.50) began trading ex-dividend, wheras positive analyst comments regarding Applied Materials (AMAT 16.78 +0.61) helped light a fire under the stock ahead of its earnings report on Wednesday...

American International Group (AIG 62.84 +1.81) showed some resilience after announcing it was close to finalizing a deal with regulators to resolve an SEC investigation, but it was the only insurer in its group to gain ground... And even merger activity returned to the forefront but none of the deals were big enough to move the broader market... The November Empire State Index came out at 19.8, slightly worse than the consensus of 20.5 but better than the prior month's reading of 17.43... Recognition of the latter, along with the fact that it is a relatively new economic report, limited its impact in the equity market...

Last trade 83.95 Change +0.32 (+0.38%)

Settle 84.00 Settle Time 16:36

Open 83.74 Previous Close 83.69

High 84.10 Low 83.60

Last tick: 2004-11-15 16:44:28 ET

[54anickel]

61. My turn to buy I guess

[UpInArms]

62. isn't it 5 o'clock somewhere?

[54anickel]

63. Ahhhhh, I needed that. Dog #2 was naughty, still not done - waiting for

the hubby to come home and "Hold 'em down!" Meanwhile dog #1 was a good boy and has already had his "tubby".

Good boy



The "Evil" one



That's pretty much what they look like.

[54anickel]

60. Closing

Dow 10,550.24 +11.23 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,094.09 +8.75 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,183.81 -0.36 (-0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.190% -0.010
30-yr Bond 4.895% -0.017
NYSE Volume 1,451,170,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,895,168,000

Close Dow +11.23 at 10550, S&P -0.36 at 11873.81, Nasdaq +8.76 at 2094.09: Stocks barely got off the ground from the get go, with the breadth of the market remaining mixed for most of the session... Profit taking took its toll on most stocks following a three-week rally that left the indies near yearly highs... A slew of analyst downgrades also exacerbated the selling in sectors such a oil & gas and trucking...
But buyers found some interest as the technical levels in December crude oil broke down, knocking the contract below $46/bbl intra-day to close at a two-month low ($46.87/bbl -$0.52), sending airlines higher and pushing energy further into negative territory... Most of the news though throughout the remained rather company specific... Lowe's (LOW 59.25 -1.00) beat analysts' expectations by a penny but after issuing disappointing "in line" Q4 guidance, the stock was punished... Microsoft (MSFT 27.39 +0.50) began trading ex-dividend, wheras positive analyst comments regarding Applied Materials (AMAT 16.78 +0.61) helped light a fire under the stock ahead of its earnings report on Wednesday...

American International Group (AIG 62.84 +1.81) showed some resilience after announcing it was close to finalizing a deal with regulators to resolve an SEC investigation, but it was the only insurer in its group to gain ground... And even merger activity returned to the forefront but none of the deals were big enough to move the broader market... The November Empire State Index came out at 19.8, slightly worse than the consensus of 20.5 but better than the prior month's reading of 17.43... Recognition of the latter, along with the fact that it is a relatively new economic report, limited its impact in the equity market...

Tomorrow before the open, investors will take note of earnings reports from Home Depot (HD 43.79 +0.57) and Wal-Mart (WMT 57.70 +0.85), as well as the October PPI report...NYSE Adv/Dec 1837/1499, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1744/1383

3:30PM : Buyers show some resolve, as sellers have been unable to gain much momentum throughout the session... Market internals, though, remain mixed going into the last half hour of trading... Tonight's small batch of earners is not likely to draw too much attention ahead of tomorrow's economic data... Tomorrow morning brings the October Producer Price Index (PPI), which comes out at 8:30 ET... Briefing.com expects the reading to come in at 0.5% (consensus is 0.6%) versus September's figure of 0.1%...

Note, if a stronger than expected change is reported, the market will show some added angst ahead of Wednesday's CPI report... On the earnings front, three Dow components report quarterly results tomorrow, with bellwethers Home Depot (HD 43.60 +0.38) and Wal-Mart (WMT 57.74 +0.89) out before the bell... Analysts are forecasting earnings of $0.57 and $0.54 per share, respectively... Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 19.28 -0.06) checks in after the close... Wall Street is expecting Q4 earnings of $0.37 per share on revenues of $21.2 bln...NYSE Adv/Dec 1725/1569, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1550/1571

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1849 (52%) 1744 (53%)
Declines 1480 (42%) 1383 (42%)
Unchanged 160 (4%) 159 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 772 (53%) 1366 (72%)
Down Vol* 663 (45%) 506 (26%)
Unch. Vol* 16 (1%) 21 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 424 246
New Lo's 9 32


And the Buck

Last trade 83.95 Change +0.32 (+0.38%)

Settle 84.00 Settle Time 16:36

Open 83.74 Previous Close 83.69

High 84.10 Low 83.60