Hurricane Ivan Updates for Monday, 9/13/04 with Photos

[GOPAgainstGW]

Hurricane Ivan Update - 2:00AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
160 Miles Southeast of Western Tip of Cuba
POSITION...19.9N... 83.5W
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.
CATEGORY: 5
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920MB^..27.17^ INCHES.
(3rd Strongest Hurricane in U.S History)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 MPH^
**Projected to Strengthen to 165 MPH
GUSTS TO: 195 MPH
**Projected to Strengthen to 200 MPH

COMMENTS: Ivan going through the Yucatan Strait, instead
of over Cuba, substantially increases severity of
Hurricane's effect by U.S. hit.

[GOPAgainstGW]

1. Multi Projection Track Map

[GOPAgainstGW]

2. Photos

[TahitiNut]

31. That's probably the most well-formed hurricane/typhoon I've ever seen.

It's really awesome - a classic image. Imagine being able to harness even a fraction of a percent of the energy in that thing!

[spinbaby]

3. It keeps moving west

Much more and we've got a serious disaster in New Orleans.

[soup]

4. TWC just announced FL Keys evacuation order lifted.

Good news for those who live in the Keys, not so good for those further north and west on the Gulf Coast.

[Coconut Buddha Ape]

5. This could be The Big One...

...that the Engineers have been talking about for years.

"Saffir-Simpson Damage Categories as Adapted to Louisiana

CATEGORY 1. MINIMAL DAMAGE
No real damage by wind is caused to buildings. Some damage is done to poorly constructed signs. Some damage primarily occurs to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, trees, and foliage. Low lying roads are inundated by storm surge. Minor pier damage occurs.

CATEGORY 2. MODERATE DAMAGE
Roofing, doors and windows of homes and businesses are damaged by winds. Considerable wind damage is done to mobile homes and vegetation. Low lying roads are inundated by storm surge. Considerable damage is done by storm surge and wave action to piers. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break their moorings.

CATEGORY 3. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE
Winds cause structural damage to homes and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtain wall failure. Mobile homes are destroyed. Storm surge flooding destroys many smaller buildings while large buildings are damaged by floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 10 feet above mean sea level is flooded.

CATEGORY 4. EXTREME DAMAGE
More extensive curtain wall failures with some complete roof failure on homes occur. Major damage is caused to lower floors of homes and businesses from storm surge flooding. Terrain continuously lower than 15 feet above mean sea level is flooded.

CATEGORY 5. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE
There is complete roof failure of many homes and businesses as well as complete building failure of many small structures. Major storm surge flooding to lower floors of buildings located less than 20 feet above mean sea level occurs."

And considering that much of suburban New Orleans is around 5-10 feet below sea level, this could be REAL bad.

[spinbaby]

9. How are the evacuation plans in New Orleans?

That's a lot of people to move out of the area.

By the way, I love your user name :-)

[tedoll78]

10. My folks in New Orleans..

will be leaving tonight, or early Tuesday morning. Valuables packed, home/possessions videotaped for the insurance company, car gassed, plywood up. I think they're saying goodbye to New Orleans.. just in case they never see it again. And I'm not joking.

:cry:

[Swamp Rat]

12. I'm not leaving!

I lived through Betsy and there's no place I'd want to live in this country besides New Orleans. And I'm not joking.

[Ravenseye]

16. No Joke Swamp Rat....

...I totally understand where you're coming from, because I'd never want to live anywhere but my home for the rest of my life. But seriously...just take a quick vacation. You can leave town for a few days to go on vacation can't you?

I hear the High Ground is nice this time of year.

[Stuckinthebush]

40. If a cat 5 is headed your way

you'd be smart to leave. New Orleans is below sea level, right? No home is worth your life.

[funkybutt]

45. we're going to make a decision today

:(

I don't want to leave but a slowmoving cat 3 could put this bowl (new Orleans) under around 20 feet of water. This is a CAT 5...so we'll probably head north tomorrow.

[amazona]

15. I see no evidence of any preparations whatsoever...

...here on the North shore.

There is no way to evacuate New Orleans. Many people do not even own cars. When Georges was predicted to come on a direct hit of New Orleans, there was never any mandatory evacuation ordered for downtown New Orleans, and I knew many people who stayed. Even though we were under possibly the first-time ever mandatory evacuation for my neighborhood on the North shore, which is approximately 20 feet higher than New Orleans. I think the plan is to just write off the city as a lost cause, or at least to write off the poor as a lost cause, because they have never found a way to save them in event of a direct hit.

At this time, there seems little interest or prep being made for Ivan.

I think there is a bit of "cry wolf" also. The core of New Orleans is relatively small, and while the area is hit by tropical activity every year, it is rare for huge disasters like Betsy to occur. People do what they can and then you have to let go of fear.

But, right now, it would be a tragedy if Ivan were to hit, because I do not believe people are prepared for this at all. We have been told "Florida, Florida, Florida" over and over again.

[spinbaby]

17. That's the disaster plan?

Are you saying the disaster plan for New Orleans is to hope nothing happens? That IS a disaster waiting to happen.

[Eloriel]

23. No, no

I've seen interviews with New Orleans' disaster planner(s) several times in special segments during the last year or so. They DO have a plan; but they're also pulling their hair out because certain geographical realities make N.O. such a hopeless case in several ways (below sea level, too few good exit routes, inadequate sea walls).

[amazona]

42. eloriel is correct

There is a disaster plan but there is, in the end, no physical way to get everyone out.

[funkybutt]

46. last year one of the main evac routes was under water

and that was just a tropical storm!

There is a spot on I-10 where it dips to go under a train tressel. I believe that they have put a couple of pumps there and have made plans for a detour around that area. I don't have much confidence in the pumps, as they could be under water and not functional. As far as the detour, that's going to add HUGE delays and likely trap a bunch of people in their cars.

[Eye and Monkey]

52. you're talking about the spot near the cemeteries - Orleans, Jeff line

The new pumps there are huge, but they empty the water into the 17th Street Canal. The 17th Street Canal drains a fair chunk of Uptown and Midcity, and the channel below the interstate connects to Lake Ponchartrain without any backflow control. In other words, if the Lake comes up, so does the canal, at least as far as the old pumping station just upstream between the interstate and Metairie Road.

[Jacobin]

47. A couple of years back they had those left behind evacuate to

the Superdome.....

There is no way to get everyone out of New Orleans in a 24 to 48 your period, as you say.

I hope Ivan doesn't bop New Orleans. Lot's of Kerry stickers in the French Quarter!!

[funkybutt]

62. yeah..i heard that was a mess

i wonder how high the superdome is. There is a lot of glass and openings on the ground level. I'm guessing this was a shelter to protect from the wind damage, ect, not the flood waters. If the ground level wasn't so open, it might be a good place to evacuate to.

[Dover]

54. I don't understand that logic. What, there are no trains, planes, buses

and boats to take them out of the city? Seems like mass transit exodus would actually be more efficient if begun in time.

[TahitiNut]

27. Lake Pontchartrain is likely to become Pontchartrain Bay.

The mosquito population is about to quadruple. Bourbon Street is about to become Bourbon and (under)Water Street. It doesn't look good.

[alfredo]

58. They were talking 20 ft storm surges

in the islands hit this weekend.

[yowzayowzayowza]

6. At Ivan's present strength...

a direct hit would qualify as a "smoting"... ugly thought.

[Myrina]

21. Looks like he's heading for Texas ....

Hmmmm ... Frances hits Florida, Ivan hits Texas ...
Anyone see a pattern here ??

:evilgrin:

[Bridget Burke]

37. Next time California has a big quake....

I'm sure some people you consider beneath you will call it God's will.

[SayitAintSo]

41. Thinkin' the same here.....

God don't like ugly ....

[Dover]

55. Hmmm...speaking of ugly.... Ivan might be after Zell.

Now there's a worthy target.

[nayt]

7. wtf

they keep saying its going to go north and it has barely moved north at all. why don't they give up and admit its going east?

[Chico Man]

11. you mean west? (nt)

[unfrigginreal]

13. They appear to backing away from the turn to the North

from the 8AM advisory:

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the
progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.


At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 20.4 north...longitude 84.1 west or about 110 miles...
180 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.


Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and a slight turn toward the northwest is expected during the next
24 hours. Depending on the exact motion...the center could miss
the western tip of Cuba and could possibly move near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula during the next 24 hours.

----

Look out New Orleans

[theHandpuppet]

8. Local DC Forecaster...

Said the storm will weaken considerably once it enters the Gulf and winds may be reduced to around 100 MPH at landfall.

[yelladawg]

14. This is a big, bad storm

Where ever it hits, people will die. Falwell and Robertson will ask for money to pray it away from America.

[Corgigal]

18. I've been watching this bad boy

for days now. I keep hearing about pressure systems and steering currents. Seems like Ivan doesn't give a damn. He's going west right now and I know they are still projecting it to turn but I will believe it when I see it.

[Wilber_Stool]

19. 1315 Z

[Zen0]

20. lol ivan

didn't go in the projected path of the lows. He's creating his own lows. Ivan is dangerous.

[GOPAgainstGW]

30. Yelp, Hurricane has some interesting patterns. Hard to forecast.

[yardwork]

51. Yes, it looks like Ivan is in charge here

Ivan is starting to remind me of W. A huge mass of hot air wandering around causing death and destruction.

[GOPAgainstGW]

22. HURRICANE IVAN - 11:00 EST MONDAY, 9/13/04 UPDATE

Hurricane Ivan Update - 11:00AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
85 Miles South-Southeast of Western Tip of Cuba
POSITION...20.6N...84.4W
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.
CATEGORY: 5
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915MB(D)..27.17(D) INCHES.
(3rd Strongest Hurricane in U.S History)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 MPH(S)
**Projected to Strengthen to 165 MPH
GUSTS TO: 195 MPH(S)
**Projected to Strengthen to 200 MPH

KEYNOTES: (D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same since last report
IVAN HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY SINCE LAST REPORT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
Ivan going through the Yucatan Strait, instead of over Cuba, substantially increases potential severity of Hurricane's effect by U.S. hit.

[jmcgowanjm]

24. Hello all in New Orleans

I will always remember '74, watching that freighter
pass above me on the other side of the levee.

NO's in a bowl that's constantly being pumped out.
Worst case scenario. Eye passes over Grand Isle
and then LaPlace. Storm surge pushes into Lake
Pontchartrain and up the Miss R.

The bowl is flooded and the pumps(2 1/2" per hour)
can't lift it out.

Then you might as well destroy the dam levee at
the Red/ Atchafalaya junction to divert the Miss River
cause NO will be history.

I think Ivan will follow Camille's path thru Bay St Louis
however.

Take care Swamp Rat and have a Great Hurricane
Party.

[gulfcoastliberal]

35. My Grandma is in Waveland!

She made it through Camille and all the others in the last 80 years. We don't need this storm coming ashore at Bay St Louis! She does have a place up in Diamondhead she can go to if it does hit there, though.

I am in Pensacola. Looks like we might get lucky, but grandma may be SOL, LOL.

[merh]

38. Camille went in at Pass Christian in 1969, not Bay St. Louis

I am in Biloxi and you can rest assured plans are being made in case I have to board up my house and move inland.

[jmcgowanjm]

78. Pass Christian is on the East Coast of the Bay

They were having a 'Cane Party there and the hotel
was washed away.

The eye went right up the Bay.

[jmcgowanjm]

77. Yo gulfcoastliberal, we must've crossed paths

I spent time on Navarre Beach.
I went to school in Bay StLouis.
The eye of Camille went over it.
The Brother told me the anemometer blew off
at 210 mph.

The new school they built can withstand a Cat5.
It's between Waveland and Diamondhead.
Tell her to go there if she feels threatened.
She'll know where it is.

Just in case,
James

[GOPAgainstGW]

25. Grand Cayman: ‘Devastation beyond imagination’

Monday, September 13, 2004
http://www.caymannetnews.com/2004/09/738/imagination.shtml

At 9 am local time on Monday, as the first reports of the full extent of the damage caused by Hurricane Ivan began to come in, the early morning scene has been described as ‘devastation beyond imagination’.

Mariners Cove, an apartment building at Spotts on the south side of Grand Cayman, has been blown down by the wind completely across the road, blocking all traffic. Extensive damage has also been reported at Ocean Club, another apartment complex in the same area.

Just about every house on the island has lost part or all of its roof, in some cases the debris landing on the roofs of adjacent buildings. Cars and boats have been swept by floodwaters into the roadways.

Some homes have been completely gutted by the wind and floodwater, with entire contents being swept across the streets. In some houses it is possible to see a high water mark on the walls, evidencing flooding of some 4 to 5 feet. Whole sections and floors of some apartment buildings have completely disappeared.

Emergency services are experiencing difficulties in responding to requests for assistance because of communications difficulties. Some Cable & Wireless cellular phones are still working sporadically; all other providers have lost service.

Cayman Net News reporters are currently trying to make their way around the island to report on the damage at first hand and further details will be published as soon as circumstances and communications permit.

In a separate report, local journalist Paulette Connolly said on Monday that Hurricane Ivan ripped through the Cayman Islands tearing away homes and other building like "match sticks".

In a live interview on Citadel Radio on Monday, Connolly said that there had been reports of people being killed during the passage of the category five storm that had trucks and cars "floating like toys".

"The winds ripped the apartments like match sticks, the whole island has taken a battering. Cars and trucks were floating away like toys," she said, adding that the storm had battered the island for more than eight hours on Sunday.

Connolly said that while there had been no official death toll, "residents were calling the radio stations to report about deaths." She said the authorities were on Monday using bulldozers and other heavy equipment in a bid to clear roads that had been under 20 feet of water when the waves rushed through the streets on the island.

"I don't know when the Cayman Islands will ever be like it was before, " she said noting that the British Dependent Territory was now looking to Britain for assistance in the aftermath of the hurricane that has killed at least 60 people during its passage through the Caribbean.

Connolly said that the buildings in the Cayman Islands, known internationally for its banking system, had been constructed under strict building codes and it was "indescribable" the manner in which the buildings were blown away.

She said that the hurricane shelters that were constructed to withstand winds of more than 200 miles per hour had been badly damaged. "It is unimaginable. We are devastated. The sea went through apartments," the journalist, clearly emotional, said.


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[takumi]

26. Thank You so much for this Graphic!

Exceptional info.!

[GOPAgainstGW]

29. Thanks, Appreciate Your Thoughts!

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[GOPAgainstGW]

28. Current Ivan Photo

[GOPAgainstGW]

32. Ivan Current Track-Projection Map

[cmf]

33. You know, the refrain has been Florida, Florida, Florida

If thing hits Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama, it's going to be ugly because they will be unprepared.

[Stuckinthebush]

39. Not at all

I know that gulf coast Alabama is watching this thing like a hawk, same for New Orleans. I'd assume interests on the Gulf Coast of Mississippi are also very keenly aware of what is going on with Ivan.

Gulf Coast residents have a history of watching hurricanes and becoming acutely aware of their paths and probabilities.

On the other hand, if the hurricane batters Mississippi or Alabama, the devastation will truly hurt the states due to budget/money problems. While we have a Republican Gov here in Alabama, he is not the presidents brother and Alabama is a very safe GOP state. I wouldn't count on seeing Bush handing out bags of ice on Orange Beach.

[amazona]

43. now they are saying it is on track for Mobile

Stay safe.

[theHandpuppet]

59. Are you watching the Weather Channel?

All they talk about is FLORIDA FLORIDA FLORIDA and what a relief it will be to Floridians if this monster takes a more westerly track. Like people in Mobile and New Orleans don't matter? Sheesh, it really has gotten to the point of being dangerously irresponsible.

[Stuckinthebush]

61. I can understand it somewhat

A direct hit in the areas that have already been hit would be terrible.

However, it is important for The WC and others to note that the hurricane won't just go away if it misses Florida and that there are people in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana.

[jdj]

80. I was kind of upset with them over Frances. Asheville NC

was in a state of emergency and got the hell flooded out of it, and all they could talk about was NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NEW YORK, and how the storm WAS GONNA hit there and what would it do, but they hardly covered W. NC at all, also flooded were Clyde, Canton, Marshall and Black Mountain.They act like the flyover states don't matter at all. I post a link to the pics and video on edit the video is awesome

Go here http://www.citizen-times.com/frances.shtml and look towards the right side in the inset and you will see photo galleries, click on "flooding in WNC" and then the video link underneath it too, I can't believe it got this bad, and Ivan is supposed to drop alot of rain on the mountains too, erghh...

[GOPAgainstGW]

34. Ivan's Projected Track Has Become Less Certain at Present

[Eye and Monkey]

36. Here are the forecasted probabilities

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/131431.shtml?

(as of 11am EST)

a b c d e
APALACHICOLA FL X X 3 10 13
PANAMA CITY FL X X 4 10 14
PENSACOLA FL X X 4 11 15
MOBILE AL X X 5 10 15
GULFPORT MS X X 6 10 16
BURAS LA X X 12 5 17
NEW ORLEANS LA X X 8 8 16
NEW IBERIA LA X X 5 8 13
PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 7 8

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

The way I read this, if it picks up speed, it's more likely to center in the western range. And BTW, I'm in the swamps of Northshore Lake Ponchartrain.

[GOPAgainstGW]

44. Florida Watches Another Disturbance Near The Leewards Islands

POSTED: 11:15 am EDT September 13, 2004

Floridians don't want to hear it, but forecasters are watching yet another area of disturbed weather in the tropics. Satellite images say the tropical wave approaching the Leeward Islands is getting better organized. Experts say a tropical depression could form in the coming 24 hours. For now, the system is expected to bring some heavy rain and gusty winds to the Leewards as it moves west-northwest at about 10 mph.


==OFFICIAL NHC RELEASE==
000
WONT41 KNHC 131300
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
AND IT WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

FORECASTER STEWART

[GOPAgainstGW]

48. Latest High Quality Hurricane Ivan Photos-1

[GOPAgainstGW]

49. Latest High Quality Hurricane Ivan Photos-2

[GOPAgainstGW]

50. Latest High Quality Hurricane Ivan Photos-3

[yardwork]

53. The people in the Yucatan of Mexico are poor

They have no way to protect themselves and nowhere to go. Even if Ivan doesn't hit Yucatan they're going to get a lot of rain and wind. Same with the people in Cuba. Shrub won't lift a finger to help them.

It's a shame that the United States spends so much money on war. Think of the relief that money could buy for people suffering from natural disasters.

Our war in Iraq was optional. We caused it. Hurricanes and other disasters are a natural part of the world.

Our priorities are so misplaced, especially under this administration.

[Dover]

60. Amazing pics! Thanks.

eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

69. No problem, anytime!

[spinbaby]

56. The computer models are getting closer to New Orleans

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html

And it's worth noting that that blue line in the model was the most accurate in predicting Frances.

Please, everyone in New Orleans--start packing, figure out where you're going to go, and make arrangements for pets. Do it now.

[theHandpuppet]

57. All the Weather Channel talks about is Florida...

Florida, Florida, Florida....

... as if it wouldn't be so bad if this monster aimed for the poor folks in Mobile and New Orleans!

Man, they apparently hate to admit their initial forecasts were wrong, but this has gotten to the point of being irresponsible. People's lives are on the line here, and folks west of Florida should be fully prepared. Don't wait until the last minute!

[Boomer]

63. Florida is better for the media ratings

Obviously there's a better news story to milk in having the same state hit three times than covering a blow to the rest of the Gulf Coast. How else to explain this relentless harping on Florida long after the path of Ivan was clearly going west rather than north?

So now even the *weather* channel can't get away from the distorting influence of media-hype. They go for the "sexy" story, even if it's not quite the real story.

[Zynx]

64. Dunno-destruction of N.O by a Cat 5 would be a sexy story.

Hail the media whores!

[Lady Effingbroke]

76. Have you ever seen "Storm Stories" on the "Weather Channel"?

Pure weather porn!

[GOPAgainstGW]

65. 2:00PM UPDATE - HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY

Hurricane Ivan Update - 2:00PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
70 Miles South-Southeast of Western Tip of Cuba
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.

HURRICANE CATEGORY: 5

* * HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY* *
CURRENT READING: MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914MB(D)..26.99(D) INCHES.
11:00AM READING: MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915MB(D)..27.17(D) INCHES.
(3rd Strongest Hurricane in U.S History)

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 MPH(S)
**Projected to Strengthen to 165 MPH
GUSTS TO: 195 MPH(S)
**Projected to Strengthen to 205 MPH

KEYNOTES: (D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same since last report

IVAN CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PRESSURE INTENSITY, AND HAS SHIFTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE YUCANTAN STRAIT. Ivan traveling through the Yucatan Strait, instead of over Cuba, substantially increases potential severity of Hurricane's effect on U.S. landfall.

[GOPAgainstGW]

66. Latest Ivan Project Path - 3:00PM EST 9/13/04

NOTE, UNTIL IVAN CLEARS YUCANTAN STRAIT, PATH PROJECTIONS HAVE A HIGHER DEGREE OF ESTIMATION ERROR

[GOPAgainstGW]

67. 3:00PM 9/13/04 - Current Hurricane Ivan Photos-1

[GOPAgainstGW]

68. Current Hurricane Ivan Photos-2

[GOPAgainstGW]

70. 5:00PM UPDATE - HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY

Hurricane Ivan Update - 5:00PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
30 Miles South of Western Tip of Cuba
MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.

HURRICANE CATEGORY: 5

* * HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY* *
05:00PM READING: MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 910MB(D)..26.91(D) INCHES.
02:00PM READING: MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914MB(D)..26.99(D) INCHES.
11:00AM READING: MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915MB(D)..27.17(D) INCHES.
(3rd Strongest, and very close to 2nd stongest Hurricane in U.S History)

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 MPH(S)
**Projected to Strengthen to 165 MPH
GUSTS TO: 195 MPH(S)
**Projected to Strengthen to 205 MPH

KEYNOTES: (D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same since last report

[GOPAgainstGW]

72. Latest Hurricane Ivan Photos

[GOPAgainstGW]

71. VERY RARE PHOTO - TWIN HURRICANES 9/13/04

LEFT - JAVIER, SUSTAINED WINDSPEED 140 MPH, CAT 4
RIGHT- IVAN, SUSTAINED WINDSPEED 160 MPH, CAT 5

NOTE: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMING EAST OF THE CARRIBEAN ISLANDS PER NHC and they are now officially tracking it. Present track shows increasing in intensity and moving towards Florida

[Dover]

73. More amazing photos! And TWO hurricanes! Wonder how Gitmo is fairing?

eom

[JoFerret]

75. I had that same thought

...does anyone know?

[shawmut]

74. A weather station in Pinar del Rio is reporting winds of 124 mph

with gusts to 162mph! :o

[GOPAgainstGW]

85. Ivan has clocked gusts to 208 MPH so far

[GOPAgainstGW]

86. Ivan has clocked gusts to 208 MPH so far

[GOPAgainstGW]

79. HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE 11:00 EST 9/13/04

HURRICANE IVAN 11 PM EDT 09.13.04..POSITION...22.0 N... 85.4 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB..26.99 INCHES.
IVAN CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE - THE THIRD
STRONGEST IN RECORDED U.S. HISTORY

[Eloriel]

81. OMG -- THIRD strongest in U.S. history??? Holy moly.

And I do NOT like the looks of that track...but then I can't think of anyplace I'd like to see it go. (Wwell, right on top of Jeb's head only???)

Wooboy. This one is -- words fail. I'm still hoping it slips by New Orleans.

[jdj]

83. It's sposed to weaken once it gets in the gulf.

Let's hope it does.

But one of the big mamas, Camille or Opal, was only a cat 3 when it hit and tore it the hell up anyway.

[JCMach1]

84. Not likely this time of year... the Gulf is HOT!

that prediction was solely based on interaction with Cuba (which it barely did) and really slowing down in the Gulf in terms of forward speed.

My prediction strong cat 4 or 5 with landfall between Pensacola and New Orleans...

[spinbaby]

87. It's supposed to slow because of wind sheer

Ivan is heading into a stong northeast air flow that's supposed to slow it down and steer it northeast into the panhandle.

[mahenphx]

82. Interesting Timing for political newest dirty trick

Having Ivan thundering towards the shore of Florida makes the timing of the news of Nadar's name going on the ballot against court orders smell worse than it already does... Guess Jeb figures the voters will have other things on their minds. But with Tallahassee out of Ivan's path, current ignored injunction may still get it's day in court.I've attached the url in case you guys missed it.


Ma Hen in Phoenix




http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=3CJZ2WMZDO1GKCRBAE0CFFA?type=politicsNews&storyID=6224304