STOCK MARKET WATCH, WEDNESDAY AUGUST 20.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday August 20, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 521
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 280
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 252 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 310 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 152
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 636
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 19, 2003

Dow 9,428.90 +16.45 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,761.11 +21.62 (+1.24%)
S&P 500..... 1,002.35 +2.61 (+0.26%)
10-Year Bond 4.38% -0.10 (-2.14%)
Gold future...... 363.00 +3.10 (+0.86%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. Good morning all. Alas, I must be going.

Work calls and my son is away at daycare for a few hours. I will drop in as time today will allow.

Oz

[JNelson6563]

2. here's the wrap-up

Leading the economic news today, home construction jumped in July to the highest level in more than 17 years as the red-hot housing market showed little sign of slowing down even as mortgage rates began to rise. Housing construction totaled 1.87 million units, a 1.5 percent increase over June’s level. Analysts claimed this to be a surprise increase considering most had predicted housing construction to cool a bit given the recent increase in mortgage rates. However, if you put some thought into it, thinking that recent increases in mortgage rates would “immediately” put a halt to the housing market growth is severely misrepresented. Will it slow this train down? Sure it will, in due time of course. What the rapid increase in interest rates did was bring the many people who were waiting to see the bottom, step up and come into the market. Hence, the increase we saw in today’s data. Rising interest rates, while not the thorn in the economy yet, along with energy prices will be the anchor that puts a halt to the second-half recovery story.

Energy prices remain an issue in our economy. This week for instance, gasoline prices, in the western United States have increased 17 percent in the last three weeks as a supply pipeline from Texas to Arizona was damaged and shut down. As Arizona residents face long waits in 100+ degree temperatures and high prices just to fill up their vehicles, gasoline supplies are being shipped from California, reducing an already low inventory in California.

The effects of higher gasoline prices are immediate to the consumer and where they spend their dollars. It affects how often they will eat out at a restaurant, and visit retail stores to do some shopping. Expect to see retail numbers decrease in the coming weeks in the western U.S. as the high gasoline prices devour much of the consumer’s discretionary income. There is no quick fix to this problem, as it will take months after the pipeline is repaired to get inventory of refined fuels in Arizona and California to the levels needed to bring prices back down. Once again, as the blackout in the Northeast brought to light, the infrastructure in this country is too dependent on too few lines of transmission; if one fails the strain on the rest of the antiquated system.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

I have to agree with Middleton here. I saw a chart yesterday, maybe on CNBC that showed a spike in home-building right around when interest rates were going up before (early 90's I believe). Then it dropped. A lot.

Also, it looks like Hewlett Packard didn't play the guidance game very well (a substantial part of the earnings game these days, no?) and they didn't put in a great showing. We'll see how that plays in.

After the terra-attacks gold went up too. At least the treasuries saw some relief yesterday.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

3. mortgage rates

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Reuters
Mortgage Applications Drop Further-Report
Wednesday August 20, 7:12 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications last week fell 10.7 percent to their lowest level in more than a year, an industry survey said on Wednesday, as rising rates cut into demand for buying a home or refinancing a loan.

The average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose 0.22 percentage points last week to 6.22 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said on Wednesday. Since mid-June, the 30-year rate has risen by almost 1.25 percentage points.

With rising rates, the number of mortgage applications filed in the week ended August 15 was more than 60 percent lower than in the last week of May, when mortgage applications peaked, according to the group.

That decrease has come mainly from a decline in refinancing. Refinancing applications last week were over 70 percent lower than in the last week of May.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030820/economy_mortgages_4.html

This coincides well with Middleton's wrap-up above. Funny, I saw talkingheads wetting themselves yesterday over housing starts but I heard n'ary a mention of these big drops in mortgage apps. 60% drop in mortgage apps and 70% drop in re-fi apps.! And they scoff at the UofM consumer confidence # cause Wally World and Home Despot had decent #s! Fools!

Julie

[JNelson6563]

4. a poke in the eye

right out of the gate today. 9:46 and we're goin' south:


Dow 9,383.40 -45.50 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,749.47 -11.64 (-0.66%)
S&P 500 998.15 -4.20 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.355% -0.026


More numbers (energy) out soon.......

Julie

[JNelson6563]

5. 10:00 bounce?

10:06

Dow 9,378.98 -49.92 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 1,752.66 -8.45 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 998.72 -3.63 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.398% +0.017


Not today. Energy #s 20 minutes or so. Will treasuries bleed today?

Julie

Julie

[Coventina]

6. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning everyone!!

Today's reading is COMMUNITY changing to INSIGHT. Now, I usually interpret Ching showing COMMUNITY as a worry about employment. But today, the changing lines blew me away. I'm going to quote them below verbatim.

"There is a tendency toward elitism and exclusivity. This creates limitations for everyone in society. Such a situation will bring regret.
There is a possibility that those involved in the situation have selfish interests and divergent goals. This is unfortunate, because the ensuing mistrust of each for the other will grind events to a halt. Until goals are realigned, no progress can be made."

INSIGHT indeed!

Based on Ching's pessimism, I'm going to predict a down day for the markets.

[mrsteve]

7. 2:30 numbers - let's wake this thread back up, shall we

At 2:30 there's no joy to be seen on the Dow, but Nasdaq is staying above water level:

Dow 9,390.42 -38.48 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,762.04 +0.93 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,000.33 -2.02 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.430% +0.049

And it looks like that 10 yr bond is getting some back - what does that portend?

On the wrapup above - I myself hadn't considered the the idea that even when the interest rates start popping up, it will initially pull a knot of people in up front. These people pulled in would be the ones who wait in the wings to buy thinking the marker would go down, sort of like a small stock market uptick can cause a larger uptick as the short sellers cash out.

I always learn something new on this thread - thanks everyone.:)

Yahoo 2:00 yammer:

"2:00PM: Given the market's ability to stay near its session highs, buyers have stepped out of the woodwork and bid the indices higher... As a result, the major averages broke out of their previously stated trading ranges, reached toward their session highs, and set a new session high in the case of the Nasdaq... While 18 of the Dow's 30 components are in the green, the blue-chip index remains unable to breach the flat line due to its stubborn laggards..."

[JNelson6563]

8. back from the dentist

and with the work I need done growth in the GDP is assured. ;-)

3:28 and we are here:

Dow 9,392.11 -36.79 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,760.15 -0.96 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,000.37 -1.98 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.441% +0.060

Not too painful, a little shot of novacaine should help....

Julie

P.S. Glad you liked Middleton's wrap-up Steve, he rocks!

[lfairban]

9. 3:30 and all is not well

DOW -0.29% -27.81 9401.09
NASDAQ +0.07% +1.31 1762.42
S&P -0.11% -1.08 1001.27

[mrsteve]

10. Closing numbers - hot out of the soup

Everybody's going down, down, down...

Dow 9,397.30 -31.60 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,760.55 -0.56 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,000.27 -2.08 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.441% +0.060

10 year bond is still popping, tho.

[JNelson6563]

11. loose change shakin' out

Minor changes, nothing helpful--

Dow 9,397.51 -31.39 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,760.54 -0.57 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,000.30 -2.05 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.441% +0.060

I believe unemployment #s are out tomorrow. Should be fun. Almost always lots of dancing on those days. ;-)

Catch you all in the AM--thanks all who jumped in! :hi:

Julie

[radfringe]

12. blackout a red letter day??

Didn't take AWOL Inc. long to drag out their energy policy...the one Cheney and the Enronites forged in secret closed door meetings waaaay back in 2001

Things to watch for -

****More Deeee-regulation, power companies will be crying poor mouth that regulations are preventing them from upgrading their equipment

****bail-out for power companies crying poor mouth that they do not have sufficient money to upgrade their equipment

****rate increase because the power companies will cry poor mouth that they do not have money to upgrade their equipment

****ANWAR drilling because the power companies will cry poor mouth that they do not have the money to pay for foreign oil to run the new improved plants

****Corporate taxcuts because the power companies will cry that they pay too much in taxes already.. AWOL will spin this as an economic stimulus package

What does that mean for us? We will be paying an arm and leg for power. Winter is coming,fuel is going up... people will be chosing between heating their homes, buying their medication or putting food on the table

What does it mean for our economy? Even less disposable income to spend which means people will cut back even more - Dubya-DIP recession

What does it mean for a chosen few? More money in their pockets at our expense.

[mrsteve]

13. Yeah, but dammit Rad...

...why does it always seem that some of us are the only ones that see this relationship?

Will it take $900/month heating bills for people to wake up? Montana deregulated it's utilities, so apparently the rate schedules that worked for decades are now insufficient to keep the power company going. The rates have gone sky high, but the utility clains it's going broke. What the hell is going on?


Under Deregulation, Montana Power Price Soars

"Montana residents used to pay some of the lowest rates for power in the Northwest, but now, some lawmakers lament, they pay among the region's highest. What happened? Mainly deregulation."
</snip>

<snip>
"NorthWestern ended up owning the distribution business in Montana, as well as in Nebraska and South Dakota, and that now poses dire problems, because the company is shaky. The commission, in fact, is worried that it will be unable to buy enough natural gas to meet future demand, Mr. Rowe said."
</snip>

NYTimes

Five years ago Illinois began deregulating natural gas - and now this:


Chicago Seeks $230M Refund for Peoples Energy Customers

"The city wants local natural-gas utility Peoples Gas to refund $230 million for allegedly overcharging customers during the winter of 2001-2002."

Yahoo Business

Are people just not paying attention - utility deregulation leads to ripoff!

[radfringe]

14. because when it comes to politics and voting

it's gone beyond voter apathy - it's voter disinterest...

If I had a nickle for everytime I've heard some person say "...politicians are all alike..." - I'd be able to retire

People either don't care or don't want to know or don't want to take the time to think about it and prefer to be spoon-fed the news ala Faux news - and they consider themselves informed