AP Poll: Kerry Solidifies Base (but only within margin of error with Bush

[papau]

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20040709_441.html

AP Poll: Kerry Solidifies Base
AP Poll Shows Kerry Has Solidified His Base, Gained Some Ground in South

The Associated Press



WASHINGTON July 9, 2004 — Democrat John Kerry has solidified his base, gained some ground in the South and among lower income voters and seen independent Ralph Nader's support drop, according to an Associated Press poll.

Still, Kerry is slightly behind President Bush in the AP-Ipsos poll that found voters increasingly confident about the economy just as Kerry picked his running mate (poll is registered voters day before picking of VP, day of picking, and next day).<snip>

The poll found Bush slightly leading Kerry 49 percent to 45 percent with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 3 percent. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Bush-Kerry matchup was tied a month ago. Nader has slipped slightly since May, when he had 7 percent.<snip>

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Other AP/Ipsos-Public Affairs poll data:

MOE 4.5% , 50% for Bush/Cheney, 46 percent Kerry-Edwards ticket

Wrong track = 56 percent

Job approval = 50 percent

Approve of Handling of economy = 49% (up a few points since May)

Approve handling of domestic issues = 46%

Since June, a month ago, when a hypothetical Kerry-Edwards ticket got 47 percent to 44% for Bush-Cheney,

Kerry strong supporters % increased to 64% from 55 percent

Kerry support in the South moved from 39% to 45 %

Kerry support amoung folks earning 25k to 50 k moved from 41 percent to 50 percent

[rpannier]

1. Stupid Question Here...

If 56% of these people believe we're on the wrong track, how come 50% of the people think he's doing a good job. Personally, when I think we're on the wrong track, I think the person in charge is doing a lousy job.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Not so stupid. It means he's doing a good enough job for now

but can still be replaced, especially if they see someone better.

The "wrong track" is the important number, and will accurately reflect the votes for the challenger.

[saracat]

3. Bush Increase?

Doesn't this poll differ from the latest polls shoing a Edwards bounce of between 5 and 9 points? And whats up with the approval rating? I thought that was from 42% to 45%?

[papau]

4. Bush Approval in Ispos poll was 59% 1215/03 - now stable at 50%

and is 50%again



Each polls trends reflect the polling organization - so this is a downer for Bush. The 42% was a CBS poll.

But good econ reports have improved his horse race results against Kerry since May.

The Edwards bump is not really in this pool (poll starts before selection)

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. July 5-7, 2004. N=804 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, the independent, for whom would you vote?" If "other" or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward Kerry, Bush or Nader?"

.

George
W. Bush John
Kerry Ralph
Nader Other/
Unsure
% % % %
7/5-7/04 49 45 3 3
6/7-9/04 46 45 6 2
5/3-5/04 46 43 7 5
4/5-7/04 45 44 6 5
3/19-21/04 46 43 5 6
3/1-3/04 46 45 6 2
.

"If the election were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, and John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, the Democrats, and Ralph Nader, the independent, for whom would you vote?" If "other," "none," or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward ?" This question not asked on July 5.

.

Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Ralph
Nader Other/None (vol.) Unsure % % % % %
7/6-7/04 50 46 2
6/7-9/04 44 47 6 1 1




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[papau]

5. Kerry campaign comments on new Kerry/Edwards polling - gives a lot of data

***POLLING MEMO***

John Kerry’s selection of John Edwards has been exceptionally well-received by the public, and the ticket holds a narrow lead over Bush-Cheney. However, since John Kerry was already in a much stronger position than challengers have been in the past, we do not expect a significant bounce in the horserace from either the Vice Presidential selection or the convention.

Voters Have Demonstrated Strong Support For Senator Edwards’ Selection

In the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, 64% of voters gave the choice a positive rating. In 2000, a smaller 55% gave similar ratings to Bush’s selection of Cheney. Seventy percent (70%) of voters said they were “enthusiastic” or “satisfied” by the addition of Edwards to the Democratic ticket.

A strong majority of voters (57%) believe Edwards is qualified to serve as President – the same percentage (57%) as believed Cheney was qualified when he was selected in 2000. Moreover, 64% say Edwards’ selection reflects favorably on Kerry’s ability to make important Presidential decisions.

Kerry-Edwards Maintains A Lead

Averaging together the four polls conducted since the selection yields a 3-point lead (48% to 45%) for Kerry-Edwards over Bush-Cheney.

The Vice Presidential And Convention Bounce Is Likely To Be Limited

Despite the high ratings for the Edwards pick, we do not anticipate a substantial bounce in the horserace as a result of either the selection, or the convention. Challengers sometimes get convention and Vice Presidential selection bounces because they have not consolidated their partisan base. Most recent polls show John Kerry already getting 82%-89% of the Democratic vote. Thus, there is little base left for John Kerry to consolidate. He has already accomplished that goal.

Sometimes challengers get a big “convention” bounce because of events that have nothing to do with the conventions. Going into the 1992 convention, Bill Clinton was running third and Ross Perot was getting 30% of the vote. During the Democratic Convention, Perot dropped out, temporarily increasing Clinton’s margin by a net 28 points. Clinton’s gain had less to do with the convention and lots to do with Perot, but Republicans gleefully use that swing to boost their “convention bounce” calculation.

More important, even before the convention and his selection of John Edwards, John Kerry was already in much stronger position than most challengers have been coming out of their conventions. Since 1956, on average, elected incumbents have gone into the Vice Presidential selection and convention season with a 16.6 percentage point lead. Bush strategist Matt Dowd admits that, at worst, Bush and Kerry are even. This puts Kerry far ahead of where other challengers have been going into their conventions, and puts Bush far behind the traditional mark.

Even after the challengers’ convention the average elected incumbent has led by 6 percentage points. Thus, anything less than a 6 point lead for Bush after the Democratic Convention will indicate weakness for Bush by historical standards.

Indeed, only three incumbents in the past 50 years have been behind the challenger after the challengers’ conventions - - and all three have ended up losing on Election Day (G.H.W. Bush, Carter and Ford). By historical standards then, if this George Bush does not have a solid lead after the Democratic Convention, history would suggest he is likely to lose.

In short, Kerry-Edwards is not likely to get a substantial bounce from the Edwards pick or the Democratic Convention because John Kerry already had more support than most challengers get, even after their conventions.

We do, however, hope to increase the number of people who know about John Kerry’s record, values, and plans.

-30-

Paid for by John Kerry for President, Inc.

[papau]

6. For those that think the AP is a bias piiece of Cheney, Fax and Tel #'s :

Contact the AP 212-621-1500 Fax: [phone]