Scientists to monitor increasingly active Yellowstone | Missoulian

[Ediacara]

Scientists to monitor increasingly active Yellowstone
Posted at 8:30 a.m August 8

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. (AP) - Scientists plan to set up a temporary network of seismographs, Global Positioning System receivers and thermometers to monitor increasing hydrothermal activity in the Norris Geyser Basin and gauge the risk of a hydrothermal explosion.

The goal of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory is to pinpoint underground sources of hydrothermal steam and learn more about how seismic activity affects the basin.

A caldera that last erupted 70,000 years ago is in the center of Yellowstone. Scientists do not expect a volcanic eruption.

However, small hydrothermal explosions occur in the park almost every year. Usually they are not noticed until after the fact.

More at the Missoulian

[goobergunch]

1. The Yellowstone volcano erupts roughly every 70,000 years (n/t)

[Maple]

2. Or not

as the case may be.

[Submariner]

3. And the Yellowstone SUPER-VOLCANO erupts every 600,000 years

and is already 40,000 years overdue. And when that super-puppy goes off, it'll make your 70,000 year 'burp' seem like a hiccup. Adios civilization as we know it.....or as that new jerkoff politician is saying, "Hasta-la-vista" baby.

[West Coast Democrat]

8. What will the warning signs be before that happens?

or will there be any?

[Submariner]

31. Probably events like the present volcanic vent

disturbance happening now. One of the Yellowstone lakes has risen on one end already, causing the water to move into the forest. There will probably seismic warnings, but there isn't much we can do about it.

The last supervolcano 75,000 years ago killed off 99% of the earths human population, it is expected the same thing will happen when Yellowstone explodes.

[kainah]

33. Yeah, I figure I'm gone

even though I'm about as far from Yellowstone as possible while still being in Wyoming. I guess I figure it is a preferable way to go than living through the new American concentration camps.

Incidentally, this comes on the heels of a story last week that the Norris Geyser Basin trails will be closed for the indefinite future because the gorund in that area is routinely registering about 200 degrees.

on edit... Sorry about that. I thought this was the story about the "bubble" that has been detected in Yellowstone Lake, NOT the Norris Geyser Basin. The large story in the Casper Star-Tribune on that appears to be gone. It is mentioned, slightly, at the end of this article.

[kysrsoze]

34. OK, I know some people would die and that's bad, but...

It would be f**king incredible to witness. I'm sure someone would get it on video. Of course I wouldn't want to see something like a super-volcano explosion - just the small one, thanks.

Sorry, but I'm a big freak about natural disasters, including earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc. It's always absolutely fascinated me. I've been in a hurricane once and seen an tornado once. I live for thunderstorms. It's amazing to experience the power that this planet actually possesses. The Mt. Saint Helens explosion was incredible to hear about.

[Minstrel Boy]

45. when Yellowstone blows, you won't just hear about it

You'll hear it, wherever you are. I've read that a Yellowstone eruption is expected to be the loudest event in human history.

[MiltonLeBerle]

49. I'm the same way.

I LOVE natural disasters, and a boring hurricane season is always a let-down. I can't hardly wait for the first hyper-cane. Global warming is coooool.

[kysrsoze]

39. Before we get all freaked on this....

they predicted the volcano NOT to erupt.

[goobergunch]

47. Yet. (n/t)

[oneighty]

4. Considered the largest

dormant volcano on earth, I have heard, read or seen. Scary.

180

[Walt Starr]

6. Have you ever been to Yellowstone?

Calling it a "dormant" volcano is really not a good assessment of the situation.

I assure you, it is quite active and it will blow one day. The geological record demonstrates that very adequately.

[Ediacara]

9. it IS active

Because of its geological setting, it will be extremely explosive, and will probably kill millions by way of crop failures

[oneighty]

13. No! I have missed that pleasure.

And I accept your observations too Walt Star. No argument here! It will be an Earth shattering event.

180

[SoCalDem]

10. The whole "valley" is actually a gigantic caldera

PBS had a great documentary about north american volcanic activity and how some surveyors wondered why one end a lake seemed to be "sinking"... aerial and satellite photos confirmed their suspicions..That place IS gonna blow..... we just don't know when :scared:

[oneighty]

14. Yes!

That is the one I saw. Hmmm, wonder why the lake is tilting.

Gee I wonder if that is real Science?

180

[SoCalDem]

18. naaah..junk science.. the lake is fine...everything is hunky dory

more "study" will do it..:)

[kainah]

35. the lake isn't tilting

as I understand it -- and I am not a scientist just a concerned Wyoming resident -- the lake bottom is pushing up, most likely from the pressure building up beneath it. The description I've seen most often is a "bulge."

[screembloodymurder]

20. Actually it's rising not sinking

The dome expands upward as the pressure builds and when that end of the lake rises and the water seeks it's own level, the other end appear to sink. The Steamboat Geyser in the Norris basin erupts every 4 days to 50 years ( this is not Old Faithful ) so my question is: "How accurately can a super caldera's cycle can be predicted?"

[SoCalDem]

22. One end was rising, and sending the "extra" water

to the other end :)

[Birthmark]

5. If that thing blows...

...we won't be worrying too much about the next election.

[Ediacara]

7. naw.... only about 15 million would die in the US

One million from the initial explosion, and about 14 million more who were too poor or stuborn to get the fuck away as they slowly suffocate on ash, or starve to death. UN food aid would need to be imported however, as crop failures like the world has NEVER seen would become commonplace for about 4 or 5 years in North America, Europe, and Asia.

[Birthmark]

11. Operating from memory here...

...but, there may not be any place to import food from. It depends on the power of the explosion. We had the "year without a summer" as the result of a much smaller explosion than we *might* get from Yellowstone. A "decade without a summer" might well solve any population problems for a few centuries.

That being said, I don't lose much sleep worrying about this kind of thing.

[Akbar]

15. On the "Discovery Channel"...

they said this would pretty much wipe out most life in North America and cause a lot of problems world wide, brought about by an extreme version of a nuclear winter scenario.

If I recall correctly, the last super-volcano that blew (70,000+ years ago in the Indian Ocean) corresponded with a drop in human population from over a billion to under 10,000.

This really worried me, until they ran a show about super tsunamis.

[glitch]

23. they always seem to run them back to back

Supervolcanoes and Mega-Tsunamis. And then 3 Minutes to Impact for good measure. I try not to miss them when they come on. Fascinating good stuff.

[tom_paine]

25. "I'm not sayin' we wouldn't get our hair mussed..."

"But only ten to twenty million killed tops...depending on the breaks."
--General Buck Turgidson, "Dr. Straneglove"

=============================================

John Wilkes Booth, the First Freeper delivering the First Freeping

[goobergunch]

17. At least certain congressional races...

With its giant magma reservoir simmering atop a notoriously persistent hot spot, however, the Yellowtone volcano will eventually stage another caldera-forming paroxysm that could reduce large areas of western North America to a rhyolite desert.

Agents of Chaos by Stephen L. Harris, page 144.

:scared:

[Yentatelaventa]

12. It makes the snowmobile issue rather small

Maybe someone should start a petition calling for the banning of hydrothermal explosions?

[oneighty]

16. Nope!

Ignore the science, poo poo obvious changes. Ignore, it will go away. Problem solved.

180

[rook1]

24. What are you going to do?

There is NOTHING you or anyone else can do about it...so why worry....

[Yentatelaventa]

26. A few new atomic bunker busters could be used

Blow off some of the excess steam and lower the pressure. Why not try it?

[oneighty]

27. You are right

I am wrong, nothing can be done to stop mother nature.

I was not saying that. But given some "Idea based on real Science"

just maybe those most in immediate danger might be saved. You better believe if it was under

the 'prairie chicken ranch' they would be studying the poop out of it, kinda like they ignored the

' fake science' concerning storage of nuclear waste hither and yon.

180

[kysrsoze]

38. How about the banning of volcanoes. Know what we need to do?

We need to drill a giant hole to let out some of that pressure. Come on! We sent rockets to blow up an asteroid in Armageddon. If it becomes that obviously imminent, we have to do something about it. Think about the boost to the economy. Kind of a new Works for Progress. We could call it Works for Us All Not Dying.

[GAspnes]

19. this is a fascinating article

I had never heard that Yellowstone was volcanic. From the USGS site:

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/history.html

The enormous outpouring of magma, 280 to 2,450 km3 during each explosive event, led to the collapse of magma-chamber roofs, causing the ground above to subside by many hundreds of meters to form the calderas.

I have a hard time conceiving of a 2,000 cubic kilometer lava flow, but the pictures of the Madison Plateau give a horrifying glimpse of a 1000 foot high wall of molten rock sliding across the forest...

[SoCalDem]

21. The republican explanation of volcanoes..(real science)

[scipan]

28. OMG

Mt. Pinatubo, the volcano that erupted in 1991 and IIRC caused a few years of global cooling, and was "10 times larger than the eruption of Mt. St. Helens" is here:
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Philippines/Pinatubo/description_pinatubo.html
for comparison (in kilometers):
caldera size of Pinatubo 1991: 2.5 k diameter
caldera sizes of Yellowstone eruptions (in kilometers): 85x45k, 16k diameter, 75-95k x 40-60k

So if I'm reading this right, Pinatubo was a baby compared to this monster...

[priller]

29. I was just there 2 weeks ago

and the lower portion of the Norris basin area was closed off. In fact, it was flooded because the geysers were going off so much. The "fountain" geyser at the "paint pots" area was going off pretty much continuously, which I don't believe is normal. It was cool to watch, though. But down at the Old Faithful area, those geysers seemed to be going off on schedule.

[kainah]

36. closed also because the ground is about 200 degrees n/t

[priller]

40. Also, the Mammoth Springs area has changed drastically

The spring at the top, the one that produced all those lovely cascading pools, is now dry. Now most of the water is coming out of the side. They had to close the walkway because the water is now running over it. Kinda sucks, actually, because that used to be one of my favorite things to see at the park.

[IndianaGreen]

41. Mother Earth has her own schedule

and nothing we do can prevent it.

It is exhilarating to accept the fact that we are here on this Earth just for the ride!

[goforit]

30. Just tell Cheney it is perfect for drilling and setting up his underground

office.
The climate will be toasty and he can have all the saunas he wants.
It is in his neck of the woods.
Lynn will adore it as well!

You go guy!!!

BAAABOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!!

[stickdog]

32. What is the source?

IMHO, it is a huge population of subterranean hyperthermophilic microbes.

[IndianaGreen]

37. I would worry more about Mount Rainier

the long overdue eruption there would truly be catastrophic!

Here is some data from Yellowstone:

This is from an official US Government website that is available to the public. The information is in the public domain

TEMPORARY HYDROTHERMAL MONITORING PROGRAM TO BEGIN AT NORRIS GEYSER BASIN: 8 August 2003

In response to notably increased heat and steam emissions in parts of Norris Geyser Basin, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory will deploy a temporary network of seismographs, Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, and temperature loggers. The temporal deployment is intended to document chemical and physical signals that accompany this increased activity, to identify the underground locations of hydrothermal steam sources and the relationship of the Norris geyser basin to the background general seismicity, and crustal deformation of the Yellowstone caldera. It may also detect any precursory signals to geyser eruptions and hydrothermal explosions.

The GPS equipment is designed to detect very small movements of the earth, and the seismic array can measure earthquakes associated with flow of thermal water and earthquakes located on buried faults. Seven seismometers, that record a wide range of seismic frequencies typical of hydrothermal and volcanic systems, called broadbands, will be placed throughout the Norris Geyser Basin, five of them within and around the hydrothermal disturbed area itself. These "broadband" seismometers are especially sensitive to the long-wavelength ground vibrations that occur as water and gas move through underground cracks as well as deeper volcanic sources.

The seismic array will be complimented by high precision GPS receivers that precisely measure the coordinates of points on the ground from data transmitted by an array of satellites that can be compared with each other to measure the relative ground velocities through time. These data compliment Yellowstone’s permanent GPS network.

Movements of the ground associated with underground pulses of water and steam (including geyser eruptions) may be detected by this new technology. Thermometers placed in hot springs and creeks will continuously document the flow of water out of the geyser basin. The scientists hope to link individual pulses of water, changes in their chemistry and temperatures to pressures in the earth. This information may provide information on ground motions and seismic signals that precede them.

The Norris Back Basin has been closed since July 23, 2003, after formation of new mud pots, changes in geyser activity, and significantly increased ground temperatures (up to 200 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas near the Back Basin trail. Additional observations include vegetation dying due to thermal activity and the changing of several geysers' eruption intervals. The heightened rate of steam discharge has continued to the present time.

The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a collaborative partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Utah and Yellowstone National Park. The Yellowstone seismic and GPS network consists of a modern digitally telemetered network of 22 seismographs and 5 permanent GPS receivers throughout Yellowstone National Park in support of the YVO and an NSF project focused on the Yellowstone hotspot. These networks are operated and recorded by the University of Utah.

The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory is designed to provide geophysical and geochemical monitoring of Yellowstone National Park that enables timely guidance to the NPS and improves scientists understanding of ongoing volcanic, hydrothermal and earthquakes activity. Two NSF-supported University research consortiums and the University of Utah are providing the temporary equipment and technical support (IRIS, Integrated Research Institutes in Seismology and UNAVCO, University NAVSTAR Consortium). Funding is available primarily from the USGS Volcano Hazards Program and Yellowstone National Park.


Closure of the western part of the Back Basin Trail within the Norris Geyser Basin

Press Release http://www.nps.gov/yell/press/0362.htm

On July 22, Yellowstone National Park issued a press release to inform the public that it would close the western part of the Back Basin Trail within the Norris Geyser Basin. This follows increased thermal output within this area including areas immediately adjacent to the trail, beginning on July 11. Norris is the hottest and most seismically active geyser basin in Yellowstone. Recent activity in the Norris Geyser Basin has included formation of new mud pots, an eruption of Porkchop Geyser (dormant since 1989), the draining of several geysers, creating steam vents and significantly increased measured ground temperatures (up to 200 degrees Fahrenheit). Additional observations include vegetation dying due to thermal activity and the changing of several geysers' eruption intervals. Vixen Geyser has become more frequent and Echinus Geyser has become more regular.

Much of this activity may be attributed to the "annual disturbance", which, as implied by its name, is an annual event at Norris with increased boiling, increased turbidity of thermal pools, and apparent increased injection of waters from deeper parts of the hydrothermal system. The
disturbance occurs within the summer season. A study of changes during the 1995 annual disturbance was published by Fournier et al. (2002)<http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of02-344/>. This year, changes at Norris are more pronounced than in previous years.

********************************************

July 2003 Yellowstone Seismicity Summary

During the month of July 2003, 37 earthquakes were
located in the Yellowstone region. The largest shock to
occur during this report period was a magnitude 2.0
earthquake on July 4th at 06:22 UTC, located about
6 miles west northwest of Norris Junction, Wyoming.

Earthquake activity in the Yellowstone region is at
background levels.

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Vhp/framework.html

[Ediacara]

42. Rainier would be bad, but Yellowstone would be devistating

Rainier has a higher chance in the near term of erupting, and since it's close to 4 major metropolitan areas (Portland, Seattle, Vancouver, and Spokane) it could kill many thousands.

Yellowstone is a completely different kind of volcano though. Rhyolitic magma (which is what's under Yellowstone) is increadibly viscous, so they doesn't erupt very frequently, and when it does, it's like a nuclear bomb. The magma under Rainier (and the rest of the Cascades) is Andesitic, which is considered intermediate between Basaltic (like Hawai'i, very fluid magmas) and Rhyolitic magmas.

Mount Saint Helens was pretty explosive, but a virtual hickup compared to Yellowstone (or any other Rhyolite volcano). Millions of tons of rock will be vaporized and thrust into the air, and ash will be up to 30 metres thick in most of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming. Ash will fall in the Pacific, Northern Mexico, Central Canada, and probably as far away as New York City. The earthquake will be felt through most of North America.

The ash fall will lead to massive North American crop failures in the first one or two years, and may reduce global temperatures worldwide for decades. As many as one million may die in the initial blast, fifteen million more may die for ash inhalation, and many millions more will die of starvation.

The United States will probably cease to exist.

Yellowstone is some pretty dangerous shit.

[joeunderdog]

44. It'll be more humane than going by way of the * Administration.

The stories of the policy changes, the war lies, the nazi scare tactics and on an on are like a drip, drip drip political torture chamber for anyone caring to look.

Yellowstone can't be legislated against, it won't discriminate against the poor, and it'll kill the planet even faster than the Chimp...I think.

[depakid]

48. Ranier doesn't have to erupt to devistate

All that has to happen is a lahar, or massive mudflow. This is a A monumental threat,according to a new report issued by the Cascades Volcano Observatory, a USGS center that monitors volcanoes from California to Alaska.

Like all of the cascade volcanoes, Ranier is made of pretty brittle stuff and the USGS report says it's "rotting from the inside." Add to that the fact that it's covered with about 156 billion cubic feet of ice and you have a lot of potential energy up there just waiting to be unleashed. If the mountain gives way, as it has many times before, then all that rock and ice turn into a fast moving sludge that roars down the valleys and innundates everything in its path, including 100,000+ people, in the case of a big event.

Although this could happen spontaniously at any time, the really scary part is that we are well overdue for a slip on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The kind that causes widespread magnitude 8+ quakes and historically coincides with lahars. If a quake of that size hits the Puget Sound, Tacoma's business district and Seattle's waterfront (where there's a lot of unreinforced masonry) will be flattened instantly and the casualties will be too many to count.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

43. Some random crap about volcano stuff and things...

Some info for those who don't know...

Yellowstone national park sits above what is known in geology as a "hotspot." A hotspot can be best thought of as a stationary upwelling of heat from deep within the earth that persists over many millions of years. The hotspot stays in the same place, and the plates, which are thin (usually less than 60km) move above the hotspot. Imagine moving a piece of paper around beneath a stationary pen and you get the basic idea - the hotspot (the pen) stays in one place - the plates (paper) move. Thus, the Yellowstone hotspot appears to have moved over the western united states, though it is actually the western united states that has moved over the hotspot.

Hawaii is the result of just such a hot spot, though the hawaiian hotspot is under thin ocean crust and is thus able to assert itself on the surface more easily, in the form of relatively non-destructive basalt shield volcanoes. You can follow the path of the Pacific plate over the Hawaii hotspot if you get a map and look at the chain of hawaiian islands and underwater seamounts (Emperor Seamounts) that stretch over almost 1/3 the width of the pacific plate.
The Hawaii hotspot asserts itself as volcanoes, because the crust above the hotspot is thin. It's more difficult for Yellowstone to assert itself because it's got many kilometers of the North American plate on top of it, but when it *does* assert itself... well, you wouldn't want to be in the neighborhood.

Now, that said, the short-term behavior of hot spots is not well understood. We can look at the chain of Emperor seamounts and Hawaiian islands, or Yellowstone's path across North America to gain a general understanding of how they function over millions of years, but the day-to-day and year-to-year fluctuations of hotspots are relatively unstudied. Geologic time is loooooooooooooong, and we really have no idea how many times something like the current Yellowstone weirdness has happened in the past hundred, thousand, ten thousand, or million years.

On calderas...
A caldera is best thought of as a supervolcano that has blown itself up in one massive, explosive eruption. (Calderas are not necessarily associated with hot spots. If you're in California, you can find a good example of a caldera in the seismically/volcanically active Owens Valley area along 395- it's called the Long Valley caldera.)

A caldera eruption is one of the most catastrophic natural events imaginable - think of quite a few square kilometers of earth being more-or-less pulverized and sent skyward. It has been theorized that caldera eruptions have been responsible for large-scale extinction events. Until the asteroid theory gained popularity, it was commonly thought that the cretaceous extinction was the result of an enormous caldera eruption or a (arguably) related phenomenon known as a flood basalt flow. Flood basalts are just about as scary as caldera eruptions - Imagine 300,000 square miles being covered with basalt hundreds of meters thick in something like two months. (I suppose the time might be shorter or longer, and any geologists out there are free to argue with me on this point and tell me I'm wrong. you're probably right.) There's one of these in the western US that stretches from the Columbia river all the way to northern California. But I'm getting off topic...

So, while the current situation in yellowstone is somewhat odd, it's nothing to be too worried about, as long as the ground beneath your feet isn't burning you. I don't think a caldera eruption is the sort of thing that happens without more significant warning signs.

-y

[Undemcided]

46. Nice link here

http://www.solcomhouse.com/yellowstone.htm