Here's something from the NRC website in 2002:
http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML0230/ML023020462.pdfPRA Basics for Regulatory Applications P-105
US Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Bill Galyean, INEEL
Mike Calley, INEEL
June 25 -27, 2002
NRC Headquarters
Rockville, MD
<snip>
The "Bathtub" Curve (cont.)
Most PRAs assume constant failure rates -- in "flat" portion of bathtub curve
+ May not be all that bad of an assumption
considering quality level of equipment, maintenance, and, testing requirements
+ However, this assumption does imply that aging
(increasing failure rate) may not be modeled in the PRA
<snip>
Here's something written in December 2000 by David Lochbaum:
http://www.ieer.org/sdafiles/vol_9/9-1/nrcrisk.htmlNuclear Plant Risk Studies: Dismal Quality
By David Lochbaum
<snip>
Assumption: Plant aging does not occur; that is, equipment fails at a constant rate.
Fact: The NRC has issued more than one hundred technical reports about the degradation of valves, pipes, motors, cables, concrete, switches, and tanks at nuclear plants caused by aging.6 These reports demonstrate that parts in nuclear plants follow the "bathtub curve" aging process illustrated in the figure below. A telling demonstration of the effects of age occurred in 1986. Four workers were killed at a nuclear power plant in Virginia because a section of pipe eroded away with time until it broke and scalded them with steam.7 Yet most PRAs assume no aging effects.
<snip>
Assumption: Risk is limited to reactor core damage.
Fact: The PRAs only determine the probabilities of events leading to reactor core damage. They do not calculate the probabilities of other events that could lead to releases of radiation, such as fuel going critical in the spent fuel pool or rupture of a large tank filled with radioactive gases. Some of these overlooked events can have serious consequences. For example, researchers at the Brookhaven National Laboratory estimated that a spent fuel pool accident could release enough radioactive material to kill tens of thousands of people.10
History shows there is a greater probability of a flipped coin landing on its edge than of these assumptions being realistic. Unrealistic assumptions in the PRAs make their results equally unrealistic. In computer programming parlance, "garbage in, garbage out."
<snip>
He lists several other bad assumptions made in the PRAs.