Longest Post-War Recession Ended in June 2009: NBER

[sabra]

Source: CNBC/Reuters

The U.S. recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest downturn since World War Two, the National Bureau of Economic Research said on Monday.

The NBER, considered the arbiter of U.S. recessions, said it chose that month based on examination of data including gross domestic product, employment and personal income.

Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/39269717

[xchrom]

1. Does NBER have a history of being surprised? Nt

[fasttense]

2. It ended? So, where's my job? Oh that's right it only ended for the rich

and the 78% who were lucky enough to keep their jobs. The 22 percent unemployed (if calculated based on 1983 unemployment statistical methods) well, they never really mattered to the economy anyway.

I just didn't know I was just so unimportant to the US economy. Thanks NBER for putting me in my place.

[SDuderstadt]

4. Maybe you should look up the definition of recession...

the N.B.E.R. isn't against you.

[Tiras De Carne Seca]

5. Maybe you should look up

the definition of propaganda.

[SDuderstadt]

6. It isn't "propaganda"...

do you even know what the N.B.E.R. is and what it does?

[Tiras De Carne Seca]

7. P.T. Barnum was right

one born every minute.

[SDuderstadt]

9. That would be you...

again, do you know what the N.B.E.R. even is and what it does or, are you just blindly lashing out?

[Tiras De Carne Seca]

10. I know what the N.B.E.R. is and what it does.

I also know what an agenda is. My agenda is to be truthful about what is happening to our economy right now. I wonder what the N.B.E.R.'s agenda is. What is your agenda?

[SDuderstadt]

11. Ooh, ominous...

of course, you don't have any real factual basis for your slander, you just "wonder" what my "agenda" and the "agenda" of the N.B.E.R. is. Did you, in any way, fact-check the data upon which the N.B.E.R. made its announcement?

[Tiras De Carne Seca]

12. Do some fact checking of your own

Research Illinois, California, New Jersey and any number of other states current ability to pay their bills. Research how counties in Ohio are having to lay off the bulk of their police and fire depts. Research how states and counties can't maintain their roads anymore. Research how poverty is on the rise. Research how record numbers of people are on some form of govt assistance. Research how foreclosures are setting records, etc, etc and then tell me if the recession really ended in 2009.

[SDuderstadt]

13. You're displaying your ignorance here...

you do understand the criteria upon which declaring the start or ending of a recession is based, right?

Those things you're mentioning are extremely critical, but they aren't what the N.B.E.R. is measuring.

[Tiras De Carne Seca]

16. Regardless of what they determined based what they decide is important

to measure, the fact remains that this country is in terrible shape economically. What they are currently measuring is meaningless because this country is suffering. It's also worth noting that some of the very folks responsible for leading us into this mess are also members of the NBER and get to "decide" when the mess they caused is over. Convenient, don't you think.

[SDuderstadt]

17. WTF?

Could you identify these "very folks responsible for getting us into this mess who are also 'members' of the N.B.E.R."? You're being a little vague. You're also conflating the very narrow measure the N.B.E.R. is making with a number of other measures of economic health. I don't think you have the slightest idea what you're talking about.

[Tiras De Carne Seca]

18. I'll give you one

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Notable members:
Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairpeople:
Ben Bernanke

Here's the deal..... you go on believing everything just turned the corner and prosperity is upon us because you read one article today that says the recession ended. I'll be a little more realistic and base my position on the hundred other articles out there today that note the real world conditions of individuals, states, counties, local govt. as well as the health of the banking industry in general. Deal?

[SDuderstadt]

19. "you go on believing that everything just turned the corner...

and prosperity is upon us..."

Nice strawman. Can you show me where I ever said that?

[Techn0Girl]

24. We have always been at was with Eurasia...

Good news Brother - Chocoration has been increased this week!

[SDuderstadt]

35. Thanks for your incoherent...

bullshit reply.

[Techn0Girl]

37. Reading is Fundamental....

Yeah.. it's almost if that post of mine was in some made up language that could only say things I wanted you to hear.

Ignorance IS bliss (apparently) .

Reading is Fundamental....and so is the ignore key - goodbye :)

[SDuderstadt]

40. Nice hit and run...n/t

[Francesca9]

43. Recessions have nothing to do with jobs

It just seems like that.

Look "recession" up in a dictionary if you don't know what the word means.

[Tiras De Carne Seca]

45. Really? Here's the definition I found

Please pay attention to the word listed right after GDP

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity over a period of time.<1><2> During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits and inflation all fall during recessions; while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.

[Francesca9]

47. Correct, jobs are an economic indicator

They however have nothing to do with a recession.

Recessions have almost always ended with job gains. This one is different.

[backtomn]

34. So, when we reemed Bush for a "jobless" recovery....

it meant nothing?? Jeez. If you are starting to become a Repub, let me know, so I can run and hide.

[SDuderstadt]

38. WTF?

If you read through the N.B.E.R. announcement, they are merely applying their typical criteria and pronouncing the recession beginning in 2007 having ended and specifically are not claiming it's a strong recovery. It also definitively marks the end of the recession as a way of setting the stage so that a subsequent recession is viewed distinctly from the most recent one.

Why so many of you think this is "propaganda" is beyond me.

I'll ask you one time politely not to imply, insinuate or "suggest" that I am turning Republican, dude. That is such an underhanded tactic, dude.

[backtomn]

32. Who cares about that definition??

Does that help 1 person?? No. I am glad that it is a comfort to you.

[backtomn]

29. Remember.......jobs are a lagging indicator ; )

You (and me....also unemployed) need to just keep quiet and agree......"we are not in a recession"......agreed. : ) Yikes.

Apparently, it is not about us.

[bluestateguy]

3. NBER is only concerned with the cold hard data

They tally up the data and make their decision based on that.

[area51]

8. Jobs are a leading indicator, not a lagging one.

People who don't have jobs can't spend and help the economy recover.

[hamerfan]

14. Jobs are an indicator.

So is housing starts.


Sept. 20, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EDT

Home-builder index stuck at multi-month low
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index remained at 13 in September, tying the August reading for the worst showing since March 2009 and coming in below MarketWatch-compiled economist estimates for a reading of 14. At 13, the index remains far below the 50 line that indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. There hasn't been a reading above 50 since April 2006

[backtomn]

30. For how many years???

I may agree with this as a lagging indicator.....but when?? I hear that unemployment might not improve much through 2013. Nice. That is one HELL of a lag.

[earthside]

15. Hold on until I stop laughing! n/t

[Jim_Shorts]

20. Welcome to fascist Germany

My home town paper will write articles declaring "COMPANY X THRIVING" and states the evidence of this is that gross earnings & DIVIDENDS are both up. Later in the article (usually given 1 paragraph) they will say 2000 people were laid off in the last year.

After world war 2 they asked germans why they let the Fascists take over the country and they said it happened slowly almost imperceptibly.

[starroute]

21. The important thing is that they dated it Dec 2007 - Jun 2009

Making it the Second Bush Recession (since the first was March to November of 2001.)

This is important because the Republicans have tried to blame Clinton (during whose presidency there were no recessions at all) for the first Bush recession. And now they're trying to hang the second Bush recession around Obama's neck.

Well, it ain't true -- in either case.

Bush caused the present mess. He did nothing at all about it for over a year. And now we're stuck with the results.

[defendandprotect]

22. What crap .... "Obama says" .... Less than 2 months ago, Obama called it a Depression -- !!!

Obama: Despite end of recession, people still hurting

Recession pain still real, despite end, Obama says

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100920/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama


------------------------

Less than two months ago, an article on Yahoo had Obama describing our being

in a "Depression" -- it was quickly scrubbed before I could post it -- and

"recession" substituted. Some Dems in Congress have been referring to this

as the "Great Recession."

We are as much out of this Depression/Recession as Elizabeth Warren is going to head

the new Consumer Agency!!

And -- not only that, she's now relegated to a position under THE FED!!


quote ...

Hooray, Elizabeth Warren is to become a Special Assistant to President Obama in charge of setting up the Consumer Protection Bureau that she conceived. Alas, it is not to be the independent agency she wanted but a bureau within the Federal Reserve Bank, a branch of government that is really run by big banks which and did virtually nothing to protect consumers when they needed help the most.

For the Obamacrats, this is a good move in political terms because the White House had been battered by the Democratic base to appoint the outspoken Warren to the job. Asked about the issue at his recent press conference, he was his usual coy and cautious self. He said he hadn't decided.

Now he has-but not to appoint her to the job she deserves but to a post in the Executive Branch under his control and with oversight by Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, and Rahm Emanuel et al. (The White House worries that they could not win a protracted confirmation battle.) unquote

EXCERPT from Common Dreams article by Danny Schechter

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/09/20-5

[Iowa]

33. +1. Good post. You're right on target.

[madrchsod]

23. it probably did end june 2009

but it`s going to be a very long recovery...welcome to the new america

[Drunken Irishman]

25. Yes...the recession ended in June 2009 under the true definition of a recession.

The recovery is going to take years.

The house burned down. The fire is out. Doesn't mean we've got a house yet. It just means we can now start recovering what we lost.

[earthside]

26. It probably didn't.

Let's see ... unemployment stuck at over nine percent; tax revenue collections down in a majority of local and state governments indicating still declining sales, property values and personal incomes.

By my metric we're still in a recession.

There isn't any metaphysical edict that says the NBER is the sole and only arbiter of when recessions or recoveries begin or end.

In the real world, the un-Wall Street world, the recession is still very much going on.

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Your metric doesn't count...

I hate to tell you that - but it's true.

The metric they used to say the recession ended in 2009 is the same one they've been using for generations.

[earthside]

36. I vote.

My metric counts.

And I'm afraid that a lot of other folks who don't accept the NBER 'decision' or 'calculation' that the recession was over fourteen months ago are going to let the people in Washington know that they don't believe it either.

[BillH76]

28. GDP Growth is headed back down again. Check out this chart.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?Symbol=USD

Growth in the most recent quarter is an anemic 1.6% and counting.

[SDuderstadt]

39. Growing at a declining rate is...

still growing. That means it has not hit another peak yet.

[zogofzorkon]

31. I have said it thrice

What I tell you three times is true

[Vidar]

41. Bullshit!

[Francesca9]

42. Recessions are about profits and are not about jobs

Usually profits and jobs are linked but this time profits are being invested elsewhere.

[Javaman]

44. Yayyy!!! now those facts can feed my stomach, pay my bills and give me a job!!!

Love how it all works out so well on paper, but hey, while 44 million people of this nation lives in poverty (and is going up), they will be comforted tonight when they go to bed hungry that those facts will make their day tomorrow just that much better!!!

This tabulation form needs salt.

Communism works on paper too.

[Thor_MN]

46. Seems like a lot of people conflate their personal finances and the economy

just like people who can't distinguish between the weather and climate.

Winds up sounding like "What about Meeeeeeee!!!!!!!!"

[TheWatcher]

48. A lot of people cannot distinguish between Reality and Propaganda, either.

Seems to be a terminal mental illness with many Americans who "Think They Are Free."