STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday April 16

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday April 16, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 15, 2010

Dow... 11,144.57 +21.46 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq... 2,515.69 +10.83 (+0.43%)
S&P 500... 1,211.67 +1.02 (+0.08%)
Gold future... 1,157 -3.40 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.83 -0.03 (-0.70%)
30-Year Bond 4.72 -0.01 (-0.27%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Building Permits Mar
Briefing.com 630K
Consensus 625K
Prior 637K

08:30 Housing Starts Mar
Briefing.com 590K
Consensus 610K
Prior 575K

09:55 Mich Sentiment Apr
Briefing.com 75.3
Consensus 75.0
Prior 73.6

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

15. 8:30 reports:

March housing starts up 20.2% year-on-year 8:30 a.m. Today

Feb. housing starts up rev 1.1% vs drop 5.9% prev. 8:30 a.m. Today

March housing starts strongest since Nov. '08 8:30 a.m. Today

March starts stronger than 610,000 forecast 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March housing starts up 1.6% to 626,000 8:30 a.m. Today

[FarCenter]

18. "Under construction" and "completed" were down compared with March '09

In all regions for both single-family and multiple-dwelling units.

http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html

[ozymandius]

2. Oil drops below $85 as Asian stocks slump

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $85 a barrel Friday as crude traders eyed a sharp drop in Asian stocks. ....

All major Asian stock market indices fell Friday, led by Japan, China and Hong Kong. China said Thursday it will raise the minimum downpayment on purchases of some residential property and free up more land for construction in a bid to cool soaring housing costs.

A Labor Department report that said initial claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly for a second straight week raised doubts about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and also weighed on stocks. ....

In other Nymex trading in May contracts, heating oil fell 1.23 cents to $2.240 a gallon, and gasoline dropped 1.62 cents to $2.310 a gallon. Natural gas slid 2.5 cents to $4.010 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Obama signs $18 billion jobless benefits bill

WASHINGTON – Just hours after Congress passed an $18 billion bill to restore unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed, President Barack Obama made it the law of the land.

The measure comes as welcome relief to hundreds of thousands of people who lost out on the additional weeks of compensation after exhausting their state-paid benefits. They now will be able to reapply for long-term unemployment benefits and receive those checks retroactively under the legislation.

The bill also restores full Medicare payments to doctors who were threatened by a 21 percent cut and refloats the flood insurance program. ....

The legislation cleared both houses of Congress on Thursday night. The House passed the bill 289-112 just two hours after it emerged from the Senate on a 59-38 vote that capped an unusually partisan debate. Republicans largely chose to take a stand against the legislation for adding to the $12.8 trillion national despite backing it by wide margins in December and again recently. ....

Thursday's measure provides up to 99 weekly unemployment checks averaging $335 to people whose 26 weeks of state-paid benefits have run out. It's a temporary extension through June 2 that gives House and Senate Democrats time to iron out a measure to fund the program through the end of the year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100416/ap_on_bi_ge/us_unemployment_insurance

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As expected, these bloodless Republicans are complaining about the effect this will have in increasing the federal deficit.

[ozymandius]

4. Obama set to tackle risky investments

WASHINGTON (AFP) – US President Barack Obama will huddle with economic advisers Friday to thrash out new rules for risky financial products, as he moves to overhaul a trade blamed for kick-starting the recession.

A day after warning Wall Street it faces the most sweeping regulatory overhaul in more than 70 years, the White House trained its sights on the vastly lucrative trade in derivatives. ....

Critics say the opaque trade in derivatives must now take place on open exchanges, where they can be more heavily regulated and scrutinized by investors.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner recently argued open exchanges would allow companies to more safely use derivative markets to hedge against risk. ....

Obama has insisted reforms must be rapidly introduced to prevent a repeat of the crisis, which saw the government step in with trillions of dollars to prop-up ailing financial institutions.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100415/pl_afp/useconomyfinancegovernmentreform

[ozymandius]

6. Saint-Etienne Swaps Explode as Financial Weapons Ambush Europe

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- The worst global financial crisis in 70 years arrived in Saint-Etienne this month, as embedded financial obligations began to blow up.

A bill came due for 1.18 million euros ($1.61 million) owed to Deutsche Bank AG under a contract that initially saved the French city money. The 800-year-old town refused to pay, dodging for now one of 10 derivatives so speculative no bank will buy them back, said Cedric Grail, the municipal finance director. They would cost about 100 million euros to cancel today, he said. ....

Saint-Etienne is one of thousands of public authorities across Europe that tried to shave borrowing expenses by accepting derivatives deals whose risks they couldn’t measure. They may be liable for billions of euros, according to the Bank of Italy and consulting and law firms in France and Germany. As global economies climb out of recession, the crisis is hitting Saint-Etienne in central France, Pforzheim in western Germany and Apulia, an Italian regional government on the Adriatic. They may pay for their bets into the next generation. ....

For Jefferson County, Alabama, the day of reckoning came earlier than in Saint-Etienne, but the common denominator was the use of complex, unregulated financial instruments known as derivatives that are typically linked to changes in market interest rates, currencies, stocks or bonds. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., in 2003 called derivatives “financial weapons of mass destruction.”

They pushed Jefferson County close to bankruptcy two years ago. It had refinanced $3 billion of debt with variable-rate bonds and purchased interest-rate swaps to guard against borrowing costs rising. Its interest rates soared when insurers guaranteeing the bonds lost their top credit grades, and the rate the county received under the swap deals fell. ....

European towns desperate for cash jumped into the global derivatives experiment that loaded the financial system with leverage and led to the credit crisis in late 2008. Epitomized by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse, the fallout cost banks and brokerages alone $1.28 trillion in writedowns and credit losses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and required at least $15 trillion in support from central banks and governments in the U.S., the U.K. and the euro zone, based on Bank of England data.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a30KHZKX1WJo&pos=14

[Demeter]

7. So It Begins Again

Good morning, Ozy. Wish I had good news.

Well, maybe the scales are falling from the blindest eyes, at last. That would not be bad news, at least.

the pansies I planted are getting eaten by bunny rabbits. I'm going to hire Elmer Fudd, since the Fudd isn't available, to deal with it.

And we will be spending the Weekend Poisoning Pigeons in the Park, among other activities. It's a Tom Lehrer retrospective as we try to figure out how the US got so off track since his heyday...when all we had to fear was nuclear annihilation, not economic.

[ozymandius]

12. Good morning, Demeter.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I am sympathetic to your garden troubles. Some hungry insects here have discovered that legumes are now available for their dining pleasure.

The Tom Lehrer theme sounds fantastic. I really miss his late night program. He had a way to make the most uninteresting personalities seem much more so. Good questions carry so much value.

Anyway - I must get a little bit more done in advance of leaving for work.

See you in the evening.

:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

16. The Fudd is still here in spirit.

And besides, we still have Miss Crazy Nut.


It looks like Dear Old Pappy will become a permanent Florida resident on Sunday. He closed the sale on his house in SC yesterday. He'll stay with us for a couple of weeks, until he moves into a nice retirement community up the road on the first. And, he's looking forward to it.

[Demeter]

24. Wonderful News, Doc!

That must be a relief to your peace of mind.

My dad is being extraordinarily difficult. I get to hold my Sis's hand over the phone as she tries to convince him that his two choices are Change, or Suffer and Die an incredibly painful, unnecessary, expensive and stupid early death. The only thing he might listen to is the "expense" part. Sigh.

It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that he's got us stymied, and likes it that way. So I advise her to leave, let him suffer a little longer, until he starts to deteriorate to the point where he gives in, or the guardianship kicks in, or the Final Solution resolves the whole struggle for dominance. You CAN be too Polish. Like that pilot to Smolensk.

On the real estate side, all the units we the Board took over from people who walked or went bankrupt are under contract. There were even bidding wars on some. This is good because we will clear the decks for when it's Convert or Lose It time. We are looking at maybe 20 more townhouses to rehab and sell ASAP come the end of July. The fun never ends around here.

So the best place to live in Ann Arbor is getting the traffic. You should see the pages and pages of foreclosure notices in the paper today.

[ozymandius]

9. Senator Lincoln Proposed Segregating Derivatives Units of Commercial Banks

From Naked Capitalism:

Bloomberg reports that Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Blanche Lincoln is expected to table a proposal to require commercial banks to separate their derivatives operations from their commercial banking activities. The intent is to prevent banks from using cheap deposits to subsidize risky derivatives businesses, and thus eliminate the government backstopping of these activities. This “no bailout provision” would also forbid banks to use emergency banking facilities like the discount window and FDIC emergency liquidity guarantees for their derivatives activities.

As appealing as this idea sounds, I’m skeptical as to whether it will solve the systemic risk posed by over-the-counter derivatives businesses, in particular credit default swaps (plain vanilla interest rate and foreign exchange swaps are much less problematic). On the one hand, ending the ability to use cheap deposit funding to support derivatives operations should raise the cost of providing these products and hence somewhat reduce the size of the market. On the other hand, securities firms like Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch, which did not enjoy deposit subsidies pre-crisis, were also participants in these businesses, which suggests that the impact of use of deposit funding on the economics of these businesses may not be as great as some would like to believe. Moreover, the Fed extended emergency support to non-banks deemed systemically important, namely the former investment banks plus AIG. Pretending that segregating derivatives operations means the government won’t run to their rescue in a crisis looks like wishful thinking.

But the bigger issue is that this proposal is likely to be watered down into meaninglessness by the industry. European banks like SocGen, Paribas, UBS, and DeutscheBank, are large derivatives players and have long operated as universal banks, meaning deposits can fund any and all balance sheet needs. Unless European regulators are prepared to adopt similar rules, the major US players are certain to howl that their competitive standing will suffer and they therefore need to have the same privileges as Eurobanks.

More at link...

[ozymandius]

5. Stock futures signal losses; eyes on GE, BofA

(Reuters) – Stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Friday, with equities poised to reverse recent strong gains after Google's (GOOG.O) results, and ahead of General Electric (GE.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) earnings.

At 4 a.m. EDT, futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.36 percent, Dow Jones futures were down 0.27 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.32 percent.

Google posted a 23 percent jump in quarterly revenue on a rebound in Web advertising, but its stock fell 5 percent as the company disappointed some investors accustomed to blowout results. Google shares traded in Frankfurt (GOOGa.F) were down 4.2 percent. ....

Companies scheduled to report quarterly results on Friday include General Electric (GE.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Mattel (MAT.O) and First Horizon National (FHN.N). Economic indicators on tap for Friday include March housing starts and University of Michigan sentiment data for April.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100416/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks

[Demeter]

8. The Great Con Job - There Is No Money!

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25199.htm

Video and Transcript - Dylan Ratigan Show - Broadcast MSNBC April 07, 2010

[Demeter]

10. Looting Main Street: By Matt Taibbi

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25201.htm

Summary of the fleecing of Jefferson County, Alabama.

[Demeter]

11. Is the Fed Helping the Big Banks to Cook the Books? By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25203.htm

....The "repo 105" scandal is further complicated by suspicions that Lehman was assisted in its effort by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which, at the time, was headed by Timothy Geithner. Here is a short recap of what transpired between the Geithner's NY Fed and Lehman according to ex-regulator William Black and former NY governor Eliot Spitzer from an article on Huffington Post:

"The FRBNY knew that Lehman was engaged in smoke and mirrors designed to overstate its liquidity and, therefore, was unwilling to lend as much money to Lehman. The FRBNY did not, however, inform the SEC, the public, or the OTS (which regulated an S&L that Lehman owned) of what should have been viewed by all as ongoing misrepresentations.

The Fed's behavior made it clear that officials didn't believe they needed to do more with this information. The FRBNY remained willing to lend to an institution with misleading accounting and neither remedied the accounting nor notified other regulators who may have had the opportunity to do so...... We now know from Valukas and from former Treasury Secretary Paulson that the Treasury and the Fed knew that Lehman was massively overstating its on-book asset values." (Time for the Truth" William Black and Eliot Spitzer, Huffington Post)

So the question is whether the NY Fed helped other banks conceal important financial information from investors, too. And--if that's the case--then how can the public be confident that the biggest banks in the country are truly solvent?.....

If Lehman was being aided in it's "book cooking" by the NY Fed, then the other banks were probably being helped, as well. It looks like Geithner left his fingerprints everywhere.

If we add these new developments to the fact that the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) "mark to market" rule has been suspended (allowing banks to arbitrarily assign whatever value they choose to the own illiquid assets) and, the fact that the Federal Reserve still refuses to allow an independent audit of the dodgy collateral it accepted from the banks in exchange for Treasuries and other loans; then it still looks like the banking system is either teetering or insolvent.

And don't expect the Securities and Exchange Commission to get to the bottom of this either. SEC chairman Mary Schapiro is a proven financial industry loyalist who has no intention of upsetting her Wall Street overlords by digging too deep or issuing subpoenas. If she pursues the investigation at all, it will only be to placate the public and to apply liberal amounts of whitewash to the whole matter...MUCH MORE AT LINK

[Festivito]

13. Debt: 04/14/2010 12,823,492,436,215.11 (DOWN 7,700,947,475.58) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,348,114,710,150.81 + 4,475,377,726,064.30
UP 857,281,039.39 + DOWN 8,558,228,514.97

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,068,300 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,490.8.
A family of three owes $124,472.41. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 10,325,565,554.73.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,260,452,443.78.
The average for the last 33 days would be 7,509,502,221.62.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 134 reports in 196 days of FY2010 averaging 6.82B$ per report, 4.66B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,012 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 20.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/14/2010 12,823,492,436,215.11 BHO (UP 2,196,615,387,302.03 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,913,663,432,703.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,701,465,066,003.78 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********

171,727,534,521.40 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4344290&mesg_id=4344454

[Festivito]

44. Debt: 04/15/2010 12,874,618,766,079.29 (UP 51,126,329,864.18) (Thu)

(Up a lot. A good Friday and a great weekend to all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,387,443,653,676.46 + 4,487,175,112,402.83
UP 39,328,943,525.65 + UP 11,797,386,338.53

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,074,947 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,655.33.
A family of three owes $124,965.99. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 9,914,825,414.13.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,931,860,331.31.
The average for the last 31 days would be 7,675,993,869.01.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 135 reports in 197 days of FY2010 averaging 7.15B$ per report, 4.90B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,011 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 20.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/15/2010 12,874,618,766,079.29 BHO (UP 2,247,741,717,166.21 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,964,789,762,567.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,787,554,636,229.12 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********

186,961,855,940.73 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4345688&mesg_id=4345721

[Demeter]

14. General Electric net down by nearly a third as it eyes revamp

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ge-profit-drops-by-nearly-a-third-as-it-eyes-cuts-2010-04-16?siteid=YAHOOB

General Electric Co. said Friday its first-quarter profit dropped by nearly a third, dragged lower by its financial and media arms as it said it may chop costs further.

For the recent period, the conglomerate said earnings fell 32% to $1.87 billion, or 17 cents a share, as revenue fell 5% to $36.61 billion.

From continuing operations, the industrial bellwether said it earned 21 cents a share, compared to FactSet-compiled estimates of earnings of 17 cents a share on revenue of $37.3 billion.

GE, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, said it may evaluate additional restructuring that will improve earnings power going forward.

"We saw encouraging economic signs, including increases in airline passenger miles and freight loadings, declines in receivables delinquencies, and growth in local advertising markets," said Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt in a statement. He expects earnings and dividends to grow in 2011 and beyond.

GE's stock has climbed more than 66% in the last year after reaching a near 20-year low last March following the credit crisis.

In the first quarter, GE said its financial arm, GE Capital, saw its profit drop 41% to $607 million as revenue fell 10%. Immelt said he was "very encouraged" by the performance as losses and delinquencies declined.

NBC Universal, a majority of which is being sold to Comcast /quotes/comstock/15*!cmcsa (CMCS.A 18.86, -0.07, -0.37%) , saw its profit slide 49% to $199 million even as revenue rose 23%.

The technology infrastructure business -- with aviation, healthcare and transportation arms -- saw an 18% profit drop to $1.4 billion.

On the plus side, the company's energy infrastructure business saw profits rise 12% to $1.48 billion.

GE has slashed its dividend and sold of parts of its various businesses to raise cash to help compensate for the troubles at GE Capital.

SO MUCH FOR THE PRINTING MONEY IDEA!

[icee]

17. We are at an important point as this chart demonstrates.

[hamerfan]

19. U.S. charges Goldman Sachs with civil fraud

Breaking:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36597290/ns/business-us_business/

[Warpy]

20. Yeah, and look at the panic selling on that news

Wall Street sheep are something else, not realizing that this is good news in the long run.

[Roland99]

22. Triple digits down now

Dow 11,041 -104 -0.93%
Nasdaq 2,488 -28 -1.11%
S&P 500 1,194 -17 -1.44%
GlobalDow 2,055 -33 -1.56%
Gold 1,139 -21 -1.84%
Oil 83.15 -2.36 -2.76%

[Demeter]

27. So the Question Is: To Pump, or Not to Pump?

I think the only way out is forward---right on to Indict, Convict and Incarcerate!

But watch Geithner and Uncle Ben try everything else, first.

[Demeter]

37. Looks like They Manned the Pumps

making a comeback at 2 PM...

[Roland99]

45. treading water to stay over 11k

[Roland99]

23. and still going...under 11,000

Dow 10,996 -148 -1.33%
Nasdaq 2,475 -41 -1.64%
S&P 500 1,189 -23 -1.86%
GlobalDow 2,049 -38 -1.84%
Gold 1,135 -25 -2.16%
Oil 82.94 -2.57 -3.01%

[icee]

25. The very long run.

[Demeter]

26. It Isn't Good If You Own GS, or any Large Bank

not even in the long run....

Well, if you are lying down with dogs, esp. feral ones, you are gonna get up with fleas.

[Warpy]

39. My own position is extremely minor

and is through a boutique fund whose management I'm seriously starting to question.

[mbperrin]

21. Hope it actually results in dollar punishments for GS.

The only thing they'll ever understand.

[Robbien]

31. I am sorry to say that I believe this case is just grandstanding

Of all the fraudulent activity transacted by Goldman, the SEC picks such a weak case. And a rather obscure one at that. Paulson & Co advised on investments in the CDO and Goldman didn't disclose. Now that's an attention grabber,,,not!

This will probably end up with Goldman paying a couple of million in settlement and of course never admitting to any fraudulent activity.

Looks like an attempt by the admin to fool the unwashed masses into believing the admin is serious about keeping banksters in line.

[Demeter]

33. Or It Could Be the Loose End that Starts the Unravelling

If we were otherwise stable and healthy, I'd agree. But things are in such a state that any least vibration can and should bring the entire thing crashing down upon long-deserving heads. Congress is in a thread-pulling mood. The people are revolting already (no comments, please!)

And THIS time, there will be no bailout. Not even over a lot of dead bodies.

[Robbien]

34. With the unspoken agreement

that all the bigs in TPTB are not to be touched by the courts for their fraudulent activity, it is hard to believe that anything will be allowed to unravel right now.

I don't see all this unrest in the streets. Just grandstanding tea parties sponsored by TPTB. Everyone else is quietly just trying to cope with the bad financial times and grumbling under their breath.

[Demeter]

35. Europe is Adding a Lot of Pressure on the US to Prosecute or Shut Down the Banksters

and China is not going to play along. It's cooking nicely. It won't be overnight, but probably over the summer. It's going to be THE topic for the election cycle, and Congress will ignore health care reform tweaking for it.

I'm putting money into popcorn.

[Robbien]

40. The FSA over in the EU is staffed by patronage awardees

Just politically connected people with no regulatory experience sitting on their cans collecting salaries while surfing porn sites. Yes the FSA is making noise about the SEC being lax but all of that is being said with a wink and a nod. The Euro public is angry and the FSA has to pressure someone.

If this was not just a civil case and the case was on something big instead of this Paulsen advisory thingie I would have greater hopes that something finally is being done about these banksters.

[Demeter]

28. Goldman drops over 10% after SEC unveils fraud charges

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/b-of-as-rising-home-loan-losses-weigh-on-banks-2010-04-16?siteid=YAHOOB

Shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell more than 10% Friday after the Securities and Exchange Commission announced fraud charges against the company.

The SEC alleges Goldman and one of its executives defrauded investors "by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the U.S. housing market was beginning to falter," the agency said in a statement.

Friday's sell-off in Goldman was the steepest decline in several months. The last time Goldman shares posted a daily loss of at least 10% was on April 14, 2009, according to FactSet Research.

The SEC's charges are related to a synthetic collateralized debt obligation, or CDO, that Goldman structured and marketed. The vehicles were among the complex derivatives that played a major role in the financial crisis. See full coverage of the SEC's suit against Goldman Sachs.

The SPDR KBW Bank lost about 3% after shedding nearly 1% on Thursday as the Goldman news dragged down bank stocks. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. were both down more than 3%. Ratings agency Moody's Corp. lost 7%.

In other news, Bank of America shares were down more than 3% in midday trade following the release of the firm's first-quarter earnings. The company said its quarterly profit fell to $3.2 billion from $4.2 billion in the year-ago period.

------------------------IN OTHER NEWS----------------------
News Hub: Goldman Sachs new headquarters

A new, modern and lavish headquarters for Goldman Sachs is nearly ready for 7,500 of the company's employees.

[Demeter]

29. Goldman's 'faulty brakes' can't stop SEC

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-and-the-faulty-brakes-argument-2010-04-16?siteid=YAHOOB

The smoke around Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is now a four-alarm blaze, but at the heart of the inferno is an ill-defined issue crucial to Wall Street: What does it mean to make a market?

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday shocked Wall Street by charging Goldman /quotes/comstock/13*!gs/quotes/nls/gs (GS 163.45, -20.82, -11.30%) with securities fraud over the sale of mortgage-backed securities. Goldman shares tumbled 10% on the news.

The SEC charged that "one of the world's largest hedge funds, Paulson & Co., paid Goldman Sachs to structure a transaction in which Paulson could take short positions against mortgage securities chosen by Paulson based on a belief that the securities would experience credit events." See SEC complaint against Goldman.

Goldman has been under fire for a multitude of alleged sins: for fleecing taxpayers through the bailout of American International Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!aig/quotes/nls/aig (AIG 39.53, -0.45, -1.13%) , to buying tax credits to the recent disclosure one of its directors may have tipped off a hedge fund with inside information.

Of all of the accusations, none has hurt the firm in more than poor public relations -- until now.

It isn't the first time Goldman's moves surrounding mortgage-backed securities have come under fire. Phil Angelides, chairman of the government's Financial Inquiry Commission, famously said about Goldman's bets against securities it underwrote "It sounds to me a little bit like selling a car with faulty brakes, then buying an insurance policy on the buyer of those cars."

The comment made in January was directed at Goldman Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, who responded -- to a question about whether he thought the practice of shorting securities as they come to market was unethical, legal or proper -- in a way that might hint at how Goldman plans to defend itself.

"Well, the way it's -- the short answer is this is the practice of a market maker, and I would like to explain this. But the answer is I do think that the behavior is improper," Blankfein said, according to a transcript.

"When we sell something as a principal, which is what we are as a market maker, the next minute that item will have gone up, in which case we'll wish we hadn't sold it that minute, or it will go down, in which case we'll actually be glad we did for our own P&L, and sorry for the person who bought it.," Blankfein said, according to the transcript. "But we are market makers in that. In most of these cases, the person who came to us came to us for the exposure that they wanted to have."

In this case that person would apparently be John Paulson, who has won acclaim as the investors whose bets against the mortgage market made Paulson & Co. and its investors fabulously wealthy.

Blankfein's point is the prevailing ideology at every investment bank: customers such as Paulson and the sellers of mortgage securities are counterparties not clients. Goldman, Blankfein seems to argue, is an intermediary, albeit one that makes a fortune in fees from those counterparties. See related commentary on Blankfein's remarks.

For that reason, the case against Goldman may be tough to prove. Brokerages package securities and then provide all of their customers ways to buy them or hedge them.

But if prosecutors can prove there was intentional fraud, the case would not only be a damaging blow to Goldman, it would change Wall Street and what it means to make a market.

David Weidner covers Wall Street for MarketWatch.

[Demeter]

30. SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of civil fraud

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100416/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sec_goldman_sachs_charged

The government has accused Goldman Sachs & Co. of defrauding investors by failing to disclose conflicts of interest in mortgage investments it sold as the housing market was faltering.

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Friday civil fraud charges against the Wall Street powerhouse and one of its vice presidents. The agency alleges Goldman failed to disclose that one of its clients helped create — and then bet against — subprime mortgage securities that Goldman sold to investors.

Investors in the mortgage securities are alleged to have lost more than $1 billion, the SEC noted. The agency is seeking to recoup profits reaped on the deal.

The Goldman client implicated in the fraud is one of the world's largest hedge funds, Paulson & Co., which paid Goldman roughly $15 million for structuring the deals in 2007.

Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 12 percent after the SEC announcement, which also caused shares of other financial companies to sink. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 120 points in midday trading.

The civil lawsuit filed by the SEC in federal court in Manhattan was the government's most significant legal action related to the mortgage meltdown that ignited the financial crisis and helped plunge the country into recession. The SEC's enforcement chief said the agency is investigating a wide range of practices related to the crisis.

A Goldman Sachs spokesman didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.

The agency also charged a Goldman vice president, Fabrice Tourre, 31, who it said was principally responsible for devising the deal and marketing the securities.

The SEC is seeking unspecified fines and restitution from Goldman Sachs and Tourre.

Goldman told investors that a third party, ACA Management LLC, had selected the underlying mortgages in the investment. But, the SEC alleges, Goldman misled investors by failing to disclose that Paulson & Co. also played a role in selecting the mortgages and stood to profit from their decline in value.

"Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party," SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami said in a statement.

The SEC charges come less than 10 days after Goldman Sachs denied it bet against clients by selling them mortgage-backed securities while reducing its own exposure to such investments before the housing market crashed.

In an annual letter to shareholders, Goldman said it began reducing its exposure to the U.S. mortgage market in late 2006. It said it did so by selling mortgage-related investments or buying credit default swaps. The swaps are a form of insurance that pays out if the value of the underlying asset declines.

Those hedges, also known as short positions, served Goldman well. As the housing market began cratering and losses piled up for the biggest banks, Goldman suffered less damage. That led to criticism that the bank benefited at the expense of clients who bought mortgage-backed securities that later became toxic. Goldman steadfastly denied that.

"Our short positions were not a 'bet against our clients,'" Goldman said in the letter. "Rather, they served to offset our long positions. Our goal was, and is, to be in a position to make markets for our clients while managing our risk within prescribed limits."

In the letter, Goldman also rejected claims that it profited from the mortgage market meltdown.

[Robbien]

36. A lot of activity happened BEFORE the SEC announced the charges

Trading Update for ProShares UltraShort Financials

NEW YORK (Market Intellisearch) -- SKF options saw interesting call activity today. A total of 2,285 put and 28,907 call contracts were traded raising a low Put/Call volume alert. Today's traded Put/Call ratio is 0.08. There were 12.65 calls traded for each put contract.

Unusual volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move. Investors can use the Put/Call ratio statistics to measure trader sentiment. A high Put/Call ratio suggests that the overall investment sentiment is bearish and that investors expect the underlying stock to decrease in value. Conversely, a low Put/Call ratio implies that the overall investor sentiment is bullish based on the large amount of call options.

http://www.marketintellisearch.com/articles/1009243.html




What do you want to bet that Goldman knew this was coming today and shorted itself so that it could reap a huge windfall.

[Demeter]

38. Wonder If They Have a Neat Little "Escape" Firm

like Lehman Bros.' Hudson Castle--whatever.

Like that scene where the ambulance pops out of the tractor trailer for a sneak getaway in DIE HARD.

[DemReadingDU]

42. Think about the timing of this.

4/16/10
Pay attention to this, it is extremely important, but not because our S.E.C has finally grown a pair and decided to enforce the rule of law. No, I think there’s way more to this than meets the eye.

Think about the timing of this. It comes just as I have been talking about a “triggering event” that will take the blame for turning the markets. This suit was reported AFTER the open on OPTIONS EXPIRATION day. Why now? My suspicious mind says that it was timed to allow the options sellers and contract speculators to walk away and to instill maximum damage on the retail buyers of the ALL TIME RECORD number of option call buyers who were in the market just yesterday.

Markets almost always turn on such sentiment extremes, but I know that Goldman controls the government and absolutely is in control of the S.E.C. too! It’s almost a joke to me that they would turn the markets by allowing the S.E.C. to bring suit against themselves. And I’m willing to bet the majority of people will believe there’s no way they would do that. Want to bet?

Watch future events unfold, I can almost guarantee that there will be fines that are later mitigated, that a few people may take a fall, but nothing real or meaningful will come of it other than an opportunity to profit on the short side after running the market up to bubble extremes. It’s a nice game to play when you control all the pieces on the board. Meanwhile the people of the world are simply played as fools and pawns. How’s that feel, were you long the market?

How many times before people learn that what’s most important is not WHAT backs your money, but WHO is in control. America gets what it deserves, karma’s a bitch and it seems to be going around.

There's no doubt more games are coming, it's not normal and it's not healthy. It's Enron times a million.

more...
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/04/breaking-sec-sues-goldman-sachs-for.html

[Robbien]

43. Yves over at Naked Capitalism also smells a rat

the SEC suit was announced minutes before this e-mail was sent out in Obama’s name. Coincidence?

I cannot stand these Obama missives, so I am only including the beginning, which is sufficient to give you the drift of the gist.

Friend –

It has now been well over a year since the near collapse of our entire financial system that cost the nation more than 8 million jobs. To this day, hard-working families struggle to make ends meet.

We’ve made strides — businesses are starting to hire, Americans are finding jobs, and neighbors who had given up looking are returning to the job market with new hope. But the flaws in our financial system that led to this crisis remain unresolved.

Wall Street titans still recklessly speculate with borrowed money. Big banks and credit card companies stack the deck to earn millions while far too many middle-class families, who have done everything right, can barely pay their bills or save for a better future.

We cannot delay action any longer. It is time to hold the big banks accountable to the people they serve, establish the strongest consumer protections in our nation’s history — and ensure that taxpayers will never again be forced to bail out big banks because they are “too big to fail.”

That is what Wall Street reform will achieve, why I am so committed to making it happen, and why I’m asking for your help today.

Please stand with me to show your support for Wall Street reform.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/sec-sues-goldman-for-fraud.html



The suit is good PR for the WH while Goldman makes out like a bandit playing the shorts on the news.

[Demeter]

47. The Worm Will Turn--It Always Does

and then the Smartest Guys in the room end up with egg on their faces.

The trouble with contriving is when the rubes take it and run. There is no perfect con man. And no honor amongst thieves. Somebody will crack. After all, Madoff went down...it took a decade, but he went down.

[Demeter]

32. EXPLOSIVE WEEK! Volcano could build into major business problem

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100416/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_iceland_volcano_business_impact

The eruption of a volcano in the tiny, isolated island nation of Iceland is threatening to turn into a major headache for businesses across Europe and around the world as a spreading ash cloud closes more European airports.

Airlines are already counting the cost of grounded planes, and there are growing fears about the transportation of food supplies and other essential goods should the flight disruptions persist for several days — or longer.

But there were also some early winners from the unprecedented situation, with rail, bus and ferry tour operators all quick to lay on extra services for stranded business and leisure travelers as hotel rooms filled up.

Airline shares took a hit as the Geneva-based International Air Transport Association estimated that the disruption is costing the industry some $200 million a day in revenues. IATA added its forecast was "conservative" and costs will mount further as carriers reroute aircraft and care for stranded passengers.

Eurocontrol, the European air traffic agency, said some 17,000 flights were canceled on Friday, more than half the 28,000 that usually operate. Delays and cancelations will continue on Saturday as the ash cloud from the eruption of the volcano beneath Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull (ay-yah-FYAH'-plah-yer-kuh-duhl) glacier moves south and east. The flight ban was imposed because of concerns about pilot visibility and jet engine failure from the ash.

Ashley Steel, global chairman for transport and infrastructure at professional services company KPMG, said that the biggest losses would come from trans-Atlantic business traffic, with the impact on economy class revenues muted by the fact that people would likely change their bookings to a later date.

"This is yet another dramatic and costly event for the global aviation industry which will have a significant impact on annual revenues," Steel said, adding that the development reinforced the case for consolidation of the international airline sector.

"Truly global airlines will be much better placed to deal with the financial fallout from these types of events," he said.

British Airways shares dropped 1.1 percent, German flag carrier Lufthansa lost 2.1 percent and Air France-KLM slipped 1.7 percent.

There were few early reports of major impacts on exports and imports, but analysts stressed that the stakes would rise each day of the flight ban.

"Some businesses will be affected by the inability for freight to get in and out of the country," said Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in London. "As long as the disruption is not too long, this should not be a major problem. The main problem will be for goods that are perishable."

The pharmaceutical industry is particularly reliant on air freight because of the high value and low weight of their products.

The Italian farmer's association said that it may become an issue to import out of season goods from other areas, even though Italian airports are still open as shipments often come via other major European cities.

Chiara Coffele, export manager of the family Coffele winery in Soave, Italy, was unsure whether she would make a wine festival and other business appointments in Norway in the coming days after her flight from Milan was canceled on Thursday.

Coffele travels two or three times a year to Norway, where the family sells 15 percent of the 510,000 bottles of wine it produces annually. The three-day Stavanger wine festival is usually a key network event.

While others are missing some holiday work because of the flight cancelations, "I get a little less work," Coffele said.

A spokesman for the flower market in Berlin, which sells flowers that have been imported from all over the world, said there had not been any problems with the delivery on Friday morning and he was not aware of logistical problems for Saturday's flower trade. Several sushi restaurants said they get fresh fish on Thursday and had no deliveries until Monday.

As Europe's airports emptied, travelers instead crowded train stations, bus depots and rental car offices.

The high-speed Eurostar rail service linking Britain and continental Europe reported thousands of new bookings for the next few days.

National railway operator Deutsche Bahn said it deployed all available trains and asked personnel to work extra shifts on the weekend. Nonetheless, it warned of overcrowded trains and long lines at booking counters. Norway's NSB railway company put extra trains on routes from Oslo to major Norwegian cities and the Swedish capital, Stockholm.

Germany's Sixt car rental reported long lines at German branches.

"There's a rush on our rental offices," said spokesman Frank Elsner. "We're trying to mobilize everything we can and try to offer an additional 2,000 cars across Europe in cooperation with our partners to make sure travelers can get back home on the weekend."

In Britain, Network Rail canceled the bulk of engineering work that was planned for the next few days and also added extra services.

At the Jumbo Hostel — a Boeing 747 remodeled into a 27-room hotel just outside the Arlanda airport in Stockholm — rooms were filling up fast.

"I think we'll be full tonight," said manager Oscar Dios. "It's this sort of thing that we're here for. There is no place to go at the airport."

[Robbien]

41. I read that the last time this volcano erupted back in the early 1800's

it spewed ash for two years.

Yowza

[Ghost Dog]

46. LEAP/E2020: Global systemic crisis / USA-UK - The explosive duo of the second half of 2010

Just as LEAP/E2020 anticipated many months ago, and in contrast to the reports coming out of the media and the « experts » during these past few weeks, Greece really has the Eurozone behind it to give support and credibility (especially concerning good management in the future, the only guarantee of an escape from a damnable cycle of growing public deficits (1)). There will not be, then, any Greek default of payment even if the commotion over the Greek situation really is an indication of a growing awareness that money to finance the huge Western public debt is becoming increasingly difficult to find: a situation now « untenable » as a recent report of the Bank of International Settlements underlined.

The fuss made over Greece by the English and US media in particular tried to hide from the majority of the economic, financial and political players the fact that the Greek problem wasn’t a sign of an upcoming Eurozone crisis (2) but, in fact, an early warning of the next big shock of the global systemic crisis, that is to say a collision between, on the one hand, the virtual British and US economies founded on untenable levels of public and private debt and, on the other hand, the double wall of borrowing, maturing from 2011 onwards, combined with a global shortage of available funds for refinancing at low rates.

As we have explained since February 2006, at the time of our anticipation of its imminent arrival, one mustn’t forget that the current crisis has its origin in the collapse of the world order created after 1945, of which the United States was the support, assisted by the United Kingdom. Also, in order to understand the real effect of events caused by the crisis (the Greek case, for example), it is useful to relate their significance to the structural weaknesses which characterise the heart of the world in full meltdown: so, for our team, the « Greek finger » doesn’t cite the Eurozone as much as the explosive dangers of the exponential financing needs of the United Kingdom and the United States (3).

...

So then, LEAP/E2020 asks two simple questions:

· Who will be able/want to help the United Kingdom after the 6th May when its political chaos will inevitably expose the advanced meltdown of all its budget, economic and financial parameters?

... British real estate is trapped in a depression which will prevent prices reaching their 2007 levels for many generations (in other words, never) according to Lombard Street Research (7). The three parties are preparing to face up to a catastrophic post-electoral situation (8). According to LEAP/E2020 the United Kingdom could well suffer a « Greek (9) » event with British leaders announcing that the country’s situation is substantially worse than that disclosed before the election. The numerous meetings, at the end of 2009, between the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, and Goldman Sachs is a very reliable indicator of sovereign debt manipulation. As we wrote in the last GEAB issue, all one needs to do is follow Goldman Sachs to know where the next risk of sovereign debt payment default lies. ...

· Who will be able/want to back the United States once the British fuse (11) has started burning, causing panic in the sovereign debt market in which the United States is, by far, the largest issuer?

... Especially since the size of sovereign debt needed corresponds with the start of the expiry, beginning this year, of a mountain of US private debt (commercial real estate and LBO due for refinancing, amounting to 4.2 trillion USD of private debt expiring in the United States between now and 2014 (averaging one trillion USD a year (12)). Purely by chance, it is the same amount as new global sovereign debt issuance for 2010 alone, of which almost half is by the US Federal Government. Adding to that the financing needs of the other economic players (households, businesses, local authorities), the United States must find nearly 5 trillion USD in 2010 to avoid « running dry ». ...

Our team anticipates two replies just as stark:

· As regards the United Kingdom, the IMF and the EU, perhaps (13); and we’ll be watching, from this summer, the « Bank of England battle (14) » to try and avoid a simultaneous collapse in Sterling and UK public finances. In all cases Sterling will not come out undamaged and the crisis in public finances will engender an austerity plan of unprecedented size.

· As regards the United States, no one; because the size of its financing requirements exceeds the capacity of other players (including the IMF (15)) and, in winter 2010/2011, this event will lead to the explosion in the US Treasury Bond bubble founded on a huge increase in interest rates to finance sovereign debt and private debt refinancing needs, causing a new wave of financial institution bankruptcies. But it isn’t only countries that can default on payment. A Central Bank can also go bankrupt when its balance sheet consists of « ghost assets (16) » and the Fed will have to face up to a real risk of bankruptcy, as analysed in this GEAB issue.

Winter 2010 will, equally, be the stage for another destabilised event in the United States: the first major elections since the beginning of the crisis (17) when millions of Americans will probably express their feelings that they have had a « belly-full » of a continuing crisis (18), which doesn’t affect Washington and Wall Street (19), and which creates US public debt which is now counter-productive: a borrowed Dollar now causes a loss of 40 cents (see chart below).

/... http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-44-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-USA-UK-The-explosive-duo-of-the-second-half-of-2010-Summer-2010-The-Bank_a4531.html

[Demeter]

48. And With That Cheerful Analysis, Bring on the Weekend!