STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday September 28

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday September 28, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 25, 2009

Dow... 9,665.19 -42.25 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq... 2,090.92 -16.69 (-0.79%)
S&P 500... 1,044.38 -6.40 (-0.61%)
Gold future... 991.60 -7.30 (-0.73%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.32 -0.06 (-1.89%)
30-Year Bond 4.09 -0.08 (-1.99%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood

You know the drill. He does manage not to mention Robert Rhea, though.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls below $66 ahead of US economic reports

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $66 a barrel Monday in Asia as regional stock markets sank and investors eyed a slew of economic data this week that will help shed light on the health of the U.S. economy.

.....

Asian stocks were weaker with Japan's market hit by the yen reaching a nine-month high against the dollar and after Wall Street fell Friday on disappointing U.S. economic data. Reports on manufacturing and home sales stoked concerns over recovery prospects in the world's largest economy.

Crude is flirting with the bottom of a $65 to $75 trading range that has held for months as traders weigh signs of an improving global economy against evidence that consumer demand remains weak.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

17. Yup. Stimulus Bubble Slowly Collapsing, Just in Time for Xmas!

Good morning, Ozy and friends!

With the Madoff tribe getting sued to penury (when will they be prosecuted, I wonder?) and Irving Crystal AND William Saffire both dead after reaping what they sowed, things are starting to work out at last.

We should have a pool for when the Zombie Banks face the inevitable.

[ozymandius]

22. Cuomo is planning his own "stress test".

I am looking for BoA to falter next. The bidness between the SEC, BoA and Merrill has all the makings of a confidence killer when the discovery process is completed.

[ozymandius]

4. China says industrial profits fell 10.6 percent

BEIJING – Profits at China's oil producers, steel makers and other major industrial companies fell 10.6 percent in the first eight months of 2009 from the same period a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday.

Total profits for the biggest Chinese industrial companies — those with annual revenues above 5 million yuan ($732,000) — were 1.67 trillion yuan ($245 billion) from January to August, data showed.

.....

Hardest hit were the iron and steel sector, where profits declined by 71.7 percent, and the petroleum and natural gas industries, which suffered a 68.5 percent drop in profits.

.....

Manufacturing and exports, mainstays of China's growth, have been battered by the downturn in global trade, but Beijing's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program has helped to insulate the economy by fueling industrial demand through heavy spending on building new highways and other public works.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090927/ap_on_bi_ge/as_china_economy

[Demeter]

19. They Still Had Profits, Though

US business is envious.


http://dilbert.com/dyn_file/str_strip/69225/gif/strip.print/

[ozymandius]

5. Fed to work with lawmakers on naming borrowers

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is willing to work with U.S. lawmakers on ways to release names of companies that borrow from the central bank after a time lag so the disclosures do not disrupt markets, a Fed official said.

Scott Alvarez, the Fed's general counsel, told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Friday that the idea was "something that we're giving serious consideration with and we'd be happy to work with you on."

Alvarez, testifying on proposed legislation that would subject the Fed to audits by the Government Accountability Office, said that allowing reviews of the Fed's monetary policy deliberations would undermine the U.S. central bank's independence and credibility.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090926/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_borrowers

[ozymandius]

6. Zoellick Favors Power for Treasury, Not Fed

WASHINGTON -- World Bank President Robert Zoellick questioned the wisdom of giving the Federal Reserve more power over banks, as the Obama administration has proposed.

In the text of a speech he is to deliver Monday at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University, Mr. Zoellick says central banks around the world fell down as regulators -- and that the Treasury, which is more accountable to Congress, should be given the authority to regulate big financial institutions, not the Fed.

.....

Mr. Obama's Treasury has recommended that the Fed get oversight of too-big-to-fail financial institutions in an overhaul of financial-services regulation. One argument against giving such power to the Treasury is that it doesn't have the resources for the job. But lawmakers have been resistant to giving the Fed more power. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York before joining the Obama administration.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125409936849345249.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[Hugin]

8. "One argument against giving such power to the Treasury is that it doesn't have the resources..."

"One argument against giving such power to the Treasury is that it doesn't have the resources for the job."

Discuss.

:rofl::o

[ozymandius]

10. Honestly.

Jeebus! How could we fix this sort of thing? Anyone? Bueller?

[Hugin]

12. This same line of reasoning brought us no-bid contracts in... Iraq.

Along with Halliburton, et al.

[tclambert]

23. It useta seem to me the Fed was less politicized than the Treasury.

Maybe that was just Volcker's influence. With Bush, everything was put up for sale. Fed or Treasury, what's the diff? The ideologues will take over one or the other or both at some point, and oversight will turn into aiding and abetting.

[Demeter]

37. Very True

Or if the Fed WAS partisan, they weren't blatant about it. Now everybody's sold out to the Corporate Cabal.

[Hugin]

43. I was hoping someone more articulate than I am would go over the Constitutionality of that argument.

Pesky document.

[ozymandius]

13. How Well Has The Federal Reserve Performed for America? (Magnificent Fail!)

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog.

How well has the Federal Reserve performed for America? Mainstream pundits, of course, say that Bernanke has saved the world . . . . but they said the same thing about Greenspan. So let’s look at the actual historical record to determine how well the Fed has done.

Initially, Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke have both said that the Federal Reserve caused (or at least failed to cure) the Great Depression through its poor monetary policy.

Many also blame the Fed for blowing an unsustainable bubble between 2001-2007 through artificially low interest rates. If this sounds too much like an Austrian economics perspective, that may be true. But remember that Hayek won the Nobel prize in 1974 partly for arguing that artificially low interest rates lead to the misallocation of capital and to bubbles, which in turn lead to busts.

Moreover, one of the Fed’s main justification has been that it can provide a “counter-cyclical” balance. In other words, during boom times it can put on the brakes (”take the punch bowl away right as the party gets started”), and during busts it can get things moving again. But as economist Jane D’Arista has shown, the Fed has failed miserably at that task:

Jane D’Arista, a reform-minded economist and retired professor with a deep conceptual understanding of money and credit (has a) devastating critique of the central bank. The Federal Reserve, she explains, has failed in its most essential function: to serve as the balance wheel that keeps economic cycles from going too far. It is supposed to be a moderating force in American capitalism on the upside and on the downside, the role popularly described as “leaning against the wind.” By applying its leverage on the available supply of credit, the Fed can slow down a boom that is dangerously overwrought or, likewise, stimulate the economy if it is sinking into recession. The Fed’s job, a former chairman once joked, is “to take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going.” Economists know this function as “counter-cyclical policy.”

.....

The above list is only partial. And it ignores:

(1) allegations that the Fed has manipulated the markets; and

(2) claims that the Federal Reserve System saddles the U.S. government and American people with trillions of dollars in unnecessary debt (that would not be incurred if the government took back the “power to coin money” granted to the government itself in the Constitution).

Even so, it shows that the Federal Reserve has performed very poorly indeed.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/09/5324.html

[ozymandius]

7. FDIC chief wants overdraft fees restricted

Even as some banks pull back their policies, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is calling for tight restrictions on fees charged for overdrawn checking accounts.

In the past week, some of the nation's largest banks have announced plans to change the way they assess overdraft fees.

.....

The Federal Reserve has said it plans to release a rule by the end of the year on overdrafts. But it's unclear whether, and to what extent, it will require banks to curtail overdraft practices.

.....

Other analysts say that onerous restrictions could also make it harder for the troubled industry to recover. Overdraft fee income has been a huge source of profits for banks. In 2009, banks are expected to reap a record $38.5 billion from overdraft fees, nearly twice the $20.5 billion they stand to collect from credit card penalties such as late and over-limit fees, according to research firms Moebs Services and R.K. Hammer.

Banks are hoping changes to their overdraft policies will stave off further regulation. Chase has said that by early next year, it will stop approving debit-card overdrafts, and charging a fee, unless consumers have consented to the service. Wells Fargo, meanwhile, plans to limit the number of times consumers can get hit with overdraft fees each day, to four from 10.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2009-09-27-bank-overdraft-fees-regulation_N.htm

[Hugin]

11. "... reap a record $38.5 billion from overdraft fees..."

From only 7% of their customers. A fact cited, elsewhere, that is somehow forgotten when the amount is used.

I can imagine the Banksters would like to extend that bonanza to the remaining 93% of their supplicants.

[tclambert]

46. Nothing upsets bankers more than those who write checks for money they don't have.

Except, of course, when the banks do it themselves. Then it's just good business.

[ozymandius]

9. Read it here 1st: Truest Picture of Excess Labor Supply

This was an item shared here at the SMW when it was made public. - ozymandius

From The Big Picture

Back in July, we discussed the “truest picture of excess labor supply” — the number of Unemployed per Job Openings. During the 2001 recession, the ratio of jobless people to openings was little more than double; in early 2009, job seekers outnumbered jobs four-to-one.

According to a front page Sunday NYT has article, that ratio has now hit an all time record:

“Job seekers now outnumber openings six to one, the worst ratio since the government began tracking open positions in 2000. According to the Labor Department’s latest numbers, from July, only 2.4 million full-time permanent jobs were open, with 14.5 million people officially unemployed.

And even though the pace of layoffs is slowing, many companies remain anxious about growth prospects in the months ahead, making them reluctant to add to their payrolls.

The dearth of jobs reflects the caution of many American businesses when no one knows what will emerge to propel the economy. With unemployment at 9.7 percent nationwide, the shortage of paychecks is both a cause and an effect of weak hiring.”

more info and charts at above link...

[Demeter]

21. I Saw That Ratio Posted Weeks Ago

Nothing like fresh news.

[Festivito]

14. Debt: 09/24/2009 11,770,679,815,806.13 (DOWN 43,043,965,660.30) (Thu)(New section)

(Big drop before end of fourth quarter, which is fiscal year end, Sep 30: Wed.
Last 15 days of borrowing goes negative (meaning a lower public debt).
New fiscal year report adds histogram of yearly borrowing showing each president's, ahem, contribution to the debt. Old one will go away tomorrow.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,460,692,650,285.88 + 4,309,987,165,520.25
DOWN 43,516,809,626.65 + UP 472,843,966.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,535,901 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,274.16.
A family of three owes $114,822.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 2,346,313,179.10.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,720,629,664.68.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,665,125,481.95.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 170 reports in 247 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 6.69B$ per report, 4.63B$/day so far.
There were 245 reports in 359 days of FY2009 averaging 7.13B$ per report, 4.86B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,214 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/24/2009 11,770,679,815,806.13 BHO (UP 1,143,802,766,893.05 so far since Obama took office.)

THIS SECTION WILL GO AWAY IN A DAY AND NEW IMPROVED SECTION BELOW WILL STAY.
Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,745,954,918,893.70 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,143,802,766,893.05 in part since Obama takes over.

Fiscal year borrowing, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B, breakout on next two lines:
01-WJC 0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01GWB 0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 1,745,954,918,893.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O, breakout on next two lines:
09GWB 0,602,152,152,000.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 34% of FY-Debt
09-BHO 1,143,802,766,893.05 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 66% of FY-Debt
FY2010 0,000,000,000,000.00 ------------BHO


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -

-20,839,760,551.05 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4076422&mesg_id=4076535

[DemReadingDU]

26. Thanks for these daily reports

I glance thru them, and always amazed how the debt keeps growing and growing.

[Festivito]

28. Clinton started to reverse that growing-debt notion.

That's what the data show in my new section: decreasing yearly deficits ready to continue into surpluses under WJC. But, nearly half the country were stupid enough to vote for Bush and up went the deficits, up went the debt, frustratingly under the belief that Republicans were more fiscally responsible.

It still makes me mad.

[DemReadingDU]

31. Yeh, the debt usually decreases during Democrat presidents

and rises during Republican presidents.
Makes me wonder what Obama really is.


http://www.flickr.com/photos/calmar/2235223387/


Edit: more here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2678226

[Festivito]

36. B41 cleaned up his own S&L crisis. Obama gets B43's bank mess.

Rs did a better job this time of sending the problem off to the next president. They did a pretty good job of sending Clinton a mess: signs saying "Not taking applications" in perspective employer windows.

This time it's bigger, badder and longer lasting.

It won't be as easy for Obama to unravel this one as it was for Clinton to unravel B41's.

[Demeter]

38. Ooooh! Good Point

and nasty enough for Demeter, suffering from the head cold, still, while it's 51F, blowing and raining off and on outside, where only fools and the desperate venture today..

[Festivito]

45. Debt: 09/25/2009 11,770,698,157,074.20 (UP 18,341,268.07) (Fri)

(Down a quarter billion, up a quarter billion with change left over.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,460,436,135,722.72 + 4,310,262,021,351.48
DOWN 256,514,563.16 + UP 274,855,831.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,544,541 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,273.15.
A family of three owes $114,819.45. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 1,831,706,119.27.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,343,251,154.13.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,299,920,471.74.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 171 reports in 248 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 6.65B$ per report, 4.61B$/day so far.
There were 246 reports in 360 days of FY2009 averaging 7.10B$ per report, 4.85B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,213 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/25/2009 11,770,698,157,074.20 BHO (UP 1,143,821,108,161.12 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B, breakout on next two lines:
01-WJC 0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB 0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 1,745,973,260,161.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O, breakout on next two lines:
09GWB 0,602,152,152,000.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 34% of FY-Debt
09-BHO 1,143,821,108,161.12 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 66% of FY-Debt
FY2010 0,000,000,000,000.00 ------------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---

-15,624,694,517.94 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4080344&mesg_id=4080372

[ozymandius]

15. Report: New Short-term Borrowing Rules being considered for Banks

The Financial Times reports that U.S. financial regulators are considering new ratios for banks to determine the dependence on short-term borrowing: US banks face short-term borrowing rules:

... “Capital is critical, but liquidity enhancement is a necessary piece of the puzzle,” said Kevin Bailey, deputy comptroller (OCC) ...

One ratio would compare a bank’s assets to its stable sources of funding, such as deposits or longer-term unsecured debt.
- excerpted with permission

These measures are intended to gauge the liquidity of banks - and prevent future banks runs like with what happened at Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.

The Wall Street banks relied heavily on commercial paper, and when that market froze, the banks experienced a severe liquidity crisis.

more here

[Demeter]

16. Good News! Madoff sons, brother, niece to be sued

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090927/bs_nm/us_madoff_sons_2

Epic swindler Bernard Madoff's two sons, his brother and a niece will be sued this week for $198 million, the trustee winding down the Madoff firm told CBS News' "60 Minutes" broadcast on Sunday.

Sons Mark and Andrew, brother Peter and niece Shana all held executive positions with the firm and should have known about the multibillion-dollar, worldwide 20-year-long Ponzi scheme, trustee Irving Picard and his chief counsel David Sheehan, told the program...Asked by "60 Minutes" whether investigators were working under the assumption that there was money still hidden, Sheehan said: "Yes, we are" and Picard said, "We'd assume it's millions and millions of dollars."

Sheehan told "60 Minutes" he estimated about $36 billion went into the whole scheme. "About $18 (billion) of it went out before the collapse. And $18 (billion) of it is just missing. And that $18 billion is what we're trying to get back." ...All of the family members have said in previous statements that they had no knowledge of Madoff's crimes...The sons withdrew $35 million from accounts with little or no investment, Picard told "60 Minutes"...



The trustee and his lawyers have filed 13 suits already in an effort to recover about $15 billion, including one against Madoff's wife Ruth and several claims against so-called Madoff feeder funds. Only $1.5 billion has been recovered so far and the estimates for the actual money that was lost in the fraud have varied from $13 billion to $64.8 billion.

[ozymandius]

20. Good news, indeed!

If they so much as had one toe dipped in this fraud - they're toast.

[tclambert]

24. Victims won't get much, though. Perpetrators will hide what they can,

and lawyers will make sure they get their cut first.

What happened with the lawsuits against the late Ken Lay? I haven't heard anything except they intended to continue those suits after he died.

[Ghost Dog]

18. Yen surge hits Japan shares, risky assets retreat

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The yen surged to an eight-month high against the dollar on Monday as Japanese officials waved off any plans to stem the currency's rise, driving the Nikkei down 2.5 percent and sparking a broad retreat from riskier assets.

The yen later gave up some gains as Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii changed gears on his comments during the course of the day, saying yen gains were becoming one-sided just hours after saying the rise was "not abnormal.

...

Other Asian equity markets also retreated, but losses were smaller than those in Japan and portfolio manager selling before the third-quarter wraps up also played a role. Commodities slid and the dollar got a broad safe-haven boost despite its dip against the Japanese currency.

While Fujii appeared to tone down his comments, analysts and traders said the consistent message was that Japan was taking a hands-off approach and is no longer as trigger-happy as it once was on forex market intervention, having spent about $400 billion selling yen to protect its fragile economic recovery in 2003 and 2004.

...

The dollar fell as far as 88.23 yen on trading platform EBS before trimming losses to 89.33 yen, down 0.3 percent on the day. The yen staged broad gains, with the euro down 1 percent at 130.45 yen and sterling shedding 1.2 percent to 141.35 yen.

The Nikkei share average (Osaka:^N225 - News) shed 2.5 percent to hit a two-month low and briefly fell below the 10,000 line. Among exporters, Honda Motors (Tokyo:7267.T - News) fell nearly 5 percent and electronic parts maker Kyocera Corp (Tokyo:6971.T - News) lost 3.4 percent -- among the biggest drags on the index.

The MSCI benchmark of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.2 percent, while the Thomson Reuters index for regional shares (^TRXFLDAXPU - News) shed 1.3 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (HKSE:^HSI - News) fell 1.9 percent, with South Korea's KOSPI index (KSE:^KS11 - News) down 0.9 percent and Taiwan's TAIEX (Taiwan:^TWII - News) off 0.8 percent.

Some foreign investors were also pulling funds out of Asian stock markets before quarter-end, partially reversing some of the heavy buying that has taken place over the past six months on bets favoring the region's growth prospects.

...

Commodity prices also came under pressure, with investors shrugging off the outcome of the Group of 20 summit in Pittsburgh and Iran's saber-rattling.

...

The drop in equities propped up government bonds. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell 3 basis points to 1.285 percent, the lowest in nearly three months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note dipped 2 basis points to 3.307 percent.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Yen-surge-hits-Japan-shares-rb-1385197536.html?x=0&.v=4

[amandabeech]

40. It is truly news that Japan will not be jumping in to push down the yen on a consistent basis.

Might they actually let their currency find its unassisted level?

I know that the new administration in Japan will make changes, but this could be a big deal--and what manufacturers are left in the U.S. could benefit.

[tclambert]

25. Signs of the apocalypse

I'm gonna be a little nervous today. One of those bloody angels from Revelations must have opened another Seal. The Detroit Lions won a football game. Black swans DO exist!

[Tansy_Gold]

27. It's okay.

I watched the White Sox win the World Series in '05 and the world didn't come to an end.

Well, at least not right away. . . . .

:hi:


Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

44. These things take TIME, Tansy_Gold!

:D

[Dr.Phool]

33. When the Browns offense scores a TD, watch out.

[amandabeech]

41. It was astonishing! Go Lions! n/t

[AnneD]

42. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. We are out of school today so I am having a little leisure, I went to the book store yesterday to catch up on my paperwork and check out some titles. My, have the feel of the titles in the business section changed since I last perused them. There were a bunch of Cramer books (I guess folks are mad about loosing their money) and real estate wealth building.

I wanted to check out Robert Kiyosaki's book Prophesy to reread some sections. Now I don't hold Robert in the same esteem that I hold Volker, Buffet, Soros, or Rodgers, but he does get me thinking outside the box and he has a good ability to see how legislation can affect your personal wealth and ability to retain your wealth.It is a real gift he has to offer. It like when I am drawing, writing, or any creative endeavor, I like to play YES. Are they a fav, no, but I like how they alter the way I think. I's like coffee, I like the way coffee smells and I love the caffeine rush, but I don't like the taste-I can't do enough to disguise it.

I ended up getting his book Conspiracy of the Rich- the 8 new rules of money. I grabbed the last copy (it is available on line-which is why it is so current). He really hits the nail on the head in many spots. Just the section where he talks about Obama and his hiring the Wall Street Mafia looks as if he lifted it from the SWT. I am coming up to his hyper inflation vs deflation . He had come to the conclusion that Bernanke will live up (or down) to his nickname and go toward inflation and pray it doesn't turn to hyper inflation.

Time will tell if the book was a good investment- but I have already profited from his 'cycle' of investment theories. I am in a real reading mood, so if any of you guys have suggestions, I am all ears.

Oh, and Ghost dog, thanks for the you-tube video. You always introduce us to such wonderful artists that we won't hear in this country. Thanks again

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

29. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.847 Change +0.258 (+0.33%)

Global rebalancing to weaken dollar, quietly

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2009/09/24/global-rebalancing-to-weaken-dollar-quietly/

Twenty-four years ago, major nations called for depreciation of the dollar to rebalance the global economy. Now, as another effort at rebalancing looms, the dollar will again bear the brunt — though officials will try to ensure its fall is less dramatic this time.

That’s the implication of President Barack Obama’s announcement this week that he will push world leaders for a new global “framework” in which the United States would cut its huge trade and budget deficits.

Agreeing on this framework would be politically difficult, since it would require policy changes by many countries — China, for example, would probably have to rein in its explosive export-led growth.

But as the euro’s climb to a new one-year high versus the dollar this morning shows, markets are starting to think the rebalancing process may start as soon as this week’s Pittsburgh summit of leaders from the Group of 20 nations.

The Plaza Accord of 1985 called for “orderly appreciation of the main non-dollar currencies against the dollar”; it was followed by central banks’ coordinated intervention to ensure that happened.

<snip>

So unless policymakers completely lose control of the forex markets — which cannot entirely be ruled out — the dollar’s slide is likely to be slower and smaller than it was after the Plaza Accord, when the currency sank about 50 percent versus the yen between Sept. 22, 1985 and the end of 1987.

...more...

US Dollar: Optimistic Economic Outlooks to Meet Hard Facts This Week

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar__Optimistic_Economic_Outlooks_1253919164022.html

The US dollar ended the past week marginally higher after the Federal Reserve issued a more optimistic outlook on the economy. In the coming week, though, there will be a variety of growth indicators on hand that may help to signal whether the US recession really ended in Q2. That said, the US dollar index will have to contend with resistance just above 77.00 at the start of the week, but a break above there will likely coincide with a EURUSD drop below 1.4615.

Looking to the upcoming event risk, on Tuesday, the September reading of the Conference Board’s measure of US consumer confidence is expected to rise up to a one-year high of 57 from 54.1 in August, but overall, there are some upside risks for this report. Indeed, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index show that sentiment improved greatly in September, with the index hitting a 21-month high of 73.5 from 65.7.

On Wednesday, the third round of US Q2 GDP estimates is due to hit the wires, but the results will only be market-moving if we see surprising revisions. The final reading is forecasted to be revised down to -1.2 percent from -1.0 percent, though this would still represent a sharp improvement from Q1, when GDP plunged 6.4 percent. Readings in line with expectations may not have a very big impact on price action, but better-than-anticipated results could lead carry trades higher, especially in light of speculation that the recession may have ended in Q2.

On Thursday, the ISM manufacturing index is projected to rise for the ninth straight month in September to 54 from 52.9, which would be the highest reading since April 2006. With 50 being the point of neutrality, this would also be the second month that the index signals an expansion in activity, adding to evidence that the sector is experiencing a recovery in business activity. The last release didn’t have much of an impact on the US dollar, as risk aversion dominated the day, leading the currency higher. However, the report will still be useful because of its employment component as a leading indicator for the big news on Friday: US non-farm payrolls.

The US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) index is forecasted to show job losses for the 21st straight month in September, though the rate of decline is anticipated to slow further. At the time of writing, Bloomberg News was calling for NFPs to decline by 187,000, which would be the smallest drop since August 2008. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent, but ultimately, the NFP result will be the event to watch as it is extremely volatile and is one of the sole reports that impacts the US dollar from a pure fundamental point of view. A better-than-anticipated result is likely to provide a boost to the US dollar, but it will be interesting to see the impact of disappointing results as weak US data tends to weigh on risky assets and push the greenback higher amidst flight-to-quality.



...more...

[bread_and_roses]

30. Is there hope? Poll says tax the rich

stolen from the OP on Walmart symbolizing America:
"Half the respondents of a new poll say taxing the richest Americans by at least 50 percent is a great idea."

Of course, with 70+% still saying they want some sort of real public option, we still see no signs that our "progressive" President is less in thrall to the Corpo-"Health" industry. Still...maybe some are waking up?

[Tansy_Gold]

32. Oh, they may be waking up all right, but

if you leave 'em alone they'll roll over and go back to sleep.



(And you can bet your bottom dollar TPTB will leave 'em alone.)





TG

[Dr.Phool]

34. And when they go back to sleep.....

The wing-nuts will turn out in droves to vote in a lot more Michelle Bachmann clones.

[Dr.Phool]

35. Stanford gets his ass kicked.

Source: MSNBC, AP

Injured Stanford back in lockup after fight
Texas financier had a concussion, two black eyes, a broken nose

updated 35 minutes ago

CONROE, Texas - Texas financier R. Allen Stanford has been returned to a lockup after being hospitalized for treatment of a concussion following a jail fight.

Court-appointed attorney Kent Schaffer told The Associated Press on Monday that his client was injured in a fight on Thursday with another inmate at the Joe Corley Detention Facility in Conroe near Houston.

Schaffer says Stanford had "a concussion, two black eyes, a broken nose." Schaffer says Stanford was returned to the lockup Sunday afternoon.

Stanford is being held on charges of running a $7 billion Ponzi scheme. He has denied the allegations.

Stanford is charged with bilking investors of the now-defunct Stanford Financial Group. Schaffer says a status hearing is Oct. 14.

Read more: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33056581/ns/business-us_bus... /

----------------------------------------------------------------------
He probably mistook an axe-murderer, or a rapist for a servant.

Isn't it fun being a billionaire, Allen?

[Demeter]

39. Never Get Arrested or Jailed in Texas

In fact, I wouldn't do anything in Texas but get the hell out pronto. No offense, AnneD, but I'm a Yankee...I know where I'm not wanted!

[AnneD]

47. I agree.....

I ended up in jail once myself-for a burned out tail light. Seems I missed the court date (writing did not go through all the carbons, I thought the date was later, the bench warrant had been issued just days before, and I was arrested before I received it in the mail) , I swear that is the truth. The cop was super nice to me and let me park my car at work rather than have it towed-he even let me drive it after I was under arrest, That saved me hundreds of dollars. I was chairing a Convention (Sci_Fi) that weekend and folks took up a collection for bail. I was sprung in under 6 hours (record time-usually it is longer) but it was embarrassing. I was a single Mom and by the grace of God, her dad had her that weekend. We laugh about it now and folks say my rendition of "Working on a Chain Gang" was the hit of the talent show. The judge dropped the charges and the fine and wished me a Merry Christmas-and I have voted for her in every election she has ever run in

Big lesson, not everyone in jail is guilty, the place totally suck, food is even worse, and I was lucky to have a cell mate that was just as naive as I was. Believe me, that experience tainted my outlook when I was pulled to jury duty. The guy did not do jail time for his minor offense as long as I was sitting in the jury seat.

So now you know the horrible truth about me. I am an ex con :hangsheadinshame: . That's why I have never minded the thought of being arrested at a protest rally. Or as Gandhi once said, "I have never refused the King's hospitality.

[Demeter]

53. That Was the Most Interesting Story, AnneD

Thank you for sharing. Now here's mine:

The Kid got her staples out yesterday. We then got her replacement eyeglasses(she broke them in the hospital) and a haircut long overdue. We then went home, she took a shower to get the hair clippings off, and then ripped open the incision by pulling the "itchy skin" off. She's got a Grand Canyon nearly half an inch deep and 3 inches long!

I am beside myself. I don't know whether to give it up as a bad job, or go back and demand more stitches.

What do you advise?

This is what I find difficult about men: They all act like they are autistic. Of course, in my immediate family and experience, they probably all are, to some extent.

[AnneD]

54. I don't know what to recommend.....

Sounds like they needed to leave them in longer or do something else- depend on what the wound looks like. Itching is part of the nealing process and applying lotion can help with that. I would call the doc because you do not want an infection. If she is scratching at it you are at risk.

[Demeter]

55. Thanks for the Advice! I'll do that

[tclambert]

48. What happened to the other guy?

Scrapes and bruises to the knuckles?

But what WILL happen to him? Hell, in prison you can hire a hit for a carton of smokes. A billionaire should have a line of thugs offering their services. How does a rich guy in prison not have 15 bodyguards, all convicted murderers, ready to eviscerate any threats?

[AnneD]

49. He is not rich...

his assets have been seized. And if he went in with a chip on his shoulders and a pompous demeanor, he stuck out like a nail needing to be hammered. Everyone knows what you come in for-there are no secrets.

[tclambert]

50. Stocks up quite a bit today. No real reason apparent.

The new season of Dexter started yesterday. Maybe that's it. I keep wondering when Dexter is going to add Wall Street bankers to "The Code of Harry."

Dow up 1.28%
Nasdaq up 1.9%
S&P up 1.78%

[Ghost Dog]

51. See cheerleading here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=apwzoFIph4cc

[Dr.Phool]

52. FDIC broke?

FDIC Bankrupt? Uh huh.

From CNBC's "Breaking News" banner:

FDIC to Ask Banks to Pre-Pay Premiums to Inject Cash Into Deposit Insurance Fund (story developing)

"Ask"?

Somehow I suspect it will be something like this:



(Gee, I need to graft Geithner's head on that one..... along with Bair!)

Anyway, the point stands. The FDIC is clearly out of money, and this is nothing more than yet another legalized accounting fraud game, where they'll get "the money" now but allow the banks to "recognize" that "charge" over time.

Gee, what happens if the bank doesn't have any money somewhere between now and then and fails?

Oh we won't bother with that, right? Remember, there will be no more failures - and just like in Oz, if you say it enough times it might even become true!

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

---------------------------------------------------------------

I wondered why the bank seizures slacked off this week-end.