With this:
A childrens health bill should NOT be paid for by increasing a sin tax.Look, if you decide to expand SCHIP coverage to families with higher incomes (last I looked some families with 60K incomes might get coverage), you do so because you think it is an important public good and therefore you must plan to pay for it.
But paying for it with a very targeted sin tax is going to produce a declining revenue base for the program. Why not spread it around more? It's just a fallacy to believe that this tax will pay for the program, because it will produce far less additional revenue than people believe, in part due to the economy. Sales and use taxes in CA dropped 19% from Nov 07 to Nov 08. Lower income people are very strapped, and the lower income proportion of the population has a far higher proportion of smokers! Unemployment is concentrated in demographics with a much higher smoking rate than the population as a whole. (Think construction workers, etc)
If unit sales of cigarettes are X, federal revenue on a pack is current .39X. Under this new program they will be 1.00X. But over six mmonths to a year, net sales will probably drop 20-25%. To see how this works, say X is 5,000 now. Within a year, between people quitting and people cutting down, X will be 4,000.
So previously, .39 * 5,000 = $1,950
In a year, 1.00 * 4,000 = $4,000
So you say, oh, but look, we have more than doubled revenue! The answer is no, you haven't, because you have forgotten to take into account the net reduction in taxes paid to STATE governments (who, btw, pay a good piece of Medicaid and other welfare costs). State taxes on cigarettes are often far more than federal. Here's a link to those taxes by state as of Jan 1, 2008:
http://www.taxadmin.org/fta/rate/cigarett.htmlThe highest (New Jersey) was 2.57. The lowest (South Carolina) was .07 The median was about one dollar.
The states with the highest per pack rates are:
New Jersey (2.57), Rhode Island (2.46), Washington (2.025),
Maine/Maryland/Michigan/Alaska/Arizona/Connecticut (2.00),
A state with a $2 cigarette tax is going to lose significant state tax revenue if their sales drop 20% and total tax revenues will increase only marginally (look at total receipts):
2.39 * 5,000 = 11,950
3.00 * 4,000 = 12,000
I don't think they will, so let's say 10%
3.00 * 4,500 = 13,500
Net state revenues before = 2.00 * 5,000 = 10,000
Net state revenues after = 2.00 * 4,500 = 9,000
It's probably better to use the mean of $1 for estimation on effect of total tax revenues:
1.39 * 5,000 = 6,950
2.00 * 4,000 = 8,000 (plus 1,050) or 15.1%
So most of what is being done here is to shift tax revenue from the states to the federal government, which leaves this program's funding in jeopardy.
In addition, covering illegal immigrant population may be kind and decent, but it provides a huge incentive for immigrant families with sick kids to bring them here, so look for such immigration to increase and the costs of this program to rise in border states such as CA, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, etc.
You have to be careful about this sort of thing. It's like gas taxes - a lot of states raised them "to provide an incentive for conservation". Then people did conserve gas, and then total tax revenues dropped, so now you have those very states seeking to tax total miles driven, etc.