(Markets are Gambling) Intrade market sees 14.6 pct chance Palin withdrawn

[UpInArms]

Source: Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The online prediction market Intrade sees a 14.6 percent chance Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee before the U.S. presidential election on November 4.

Intrade accepts trades on the probability of events such as whether there will be a recession, whether the U.S. Congress will lift the ban on offshore drilling or whether the United States or Israel will launch a military strike on Iran.

It opened the Palin betting market on Tuesday morning after a series of revelations about the Alaska governor, whom Sen. John McCain chose as his running mate, including that her unmarried 17-year-old daughter was pregnant.

The market opened at 3 percent that she would have to withdraw from the race and rose to a high of 18.9 percent. It fell back to 14.6 percent on 2,729 trades as of 9:52 p.m. EDT (9:52 p.m. EDT) after the Republican Party convention opened in St. Paul, Minnesota.

The markets are priced from zero to 100, with zero meaning investors see no chance an event will happen and 100 meaning it already has happened.

Removal of a vice presidential candidate from the ticket is very rare. The last time it happened came in 1972 when Democrat George McGovern dropped Missouri Sen. Thomas Eagleton after it was revealed he had been hospitalized three times for "nervous exhaustion" and received electric shock treatments.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0240046620080903?sp=true

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further down in the article, it states that this guy's spreadsheet correctly predicted all the states in the 2004 election and says that Obama is going to win by 61.6%

[tekisui]

1. mcpow is stuck with the sinking, stinking stone Failin' Palin!

[rurallib]

2. Failin' Palin - me likes!

[Cirque du So-What]

3. What are the odds that she's kicked to the curb by this coming Friday?

Actually, I hope she's on the 'Pug ticket a bit longer than that. We've only just begun to use her as an example of McAnus' piss-poor judgment, and she's a walking, talking stereotype of RW hypocrisy. Alas, I believe her days on the ticket are numbered, but I want to wring out the last drop of usefulness before she's sent packing.

[hay rick]

4. McCain's dilemma

Admit he made a horrible mistake of judgment or spend the entire campaign applying fresh lipstick to this pig while hoping Biden doesn't use her to mop the floor in their debate. Talk about a classic avoidance-avoidance conflict...