Hurricane Watches Up for South TX and Mexico

[nitpicker]

Source: NWS

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

No link yet.

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I posted this in the thread started Sunday, but thought this deserved its own title in Latest Breaking News.

[Aviation Pro]

1. Track guidance and intensification are still problematic....

...given a weakening of the ridge to the north but Brownsville and Corpus Christi should prepare to batten down the hatches.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 211500
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT NOW THAT DOLLY HAS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY CONFIRMED THE
EXISTENCE OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND FOUND THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT. THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SO THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ENTIRE OVER-WATER FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM. IN ABOUT 18-24
HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 29
CELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA
WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE.
AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...STRENGTHENING APPEARS
LIKELY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR A TRUE
INNER CORE TO DEVELOP. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFDL
SOLUTION...IN CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL
ARE UNCERTAIN...THE FORECAST WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS ONLY
RESULTS FROM THE 72-HOUR POINT BEING INLAND...AND A STRENGTHENING
TREND IS FORECAST UP TO THE TIME OF FINAL LANDFALL.

DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THERE ARE VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
LANDFALL IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

For the tracking graphics go to Dr. Kerry Emmanuel's tracking guidance and intensity site at:
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html