STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday June 18

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday June 18, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 217
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2705 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2430 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2721
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 17, 2008

Dow... 12,160.30 -108.78 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq... 2,457.73 -17.05 (-0.69%)
S&P 500... 1,350.93 -9.21 (-0.68%)
Gold future... 886.90 +0.60 (+0.07%)
30-Year Bond 4.79% +0.01 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.23% -0.02 (-0.47%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Disco Balls, Donna Summer, Pipeline Pressures & the Great Housing Collapse

BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

In a session packed with a great deal of economic data, the latest thermometer readings for the US economy continue to show a patient seriously laid up in the intensive care ward. To begin with, prices continue to soar with May Wholesale prices moving ahead at the fastest pace in six months for a single month period, and with a year-over-year rate of change still running at 7.24%, the PPI remains near a multi-decade high. Entirely unreported and with the most serious implications for where things are headed next, two measures of pipeline inflation continue to remain in long term high inflation territory. To start with, if we compare Wholesale prices to Consumer Prices, the PPI less the CPI, we find that with PPI now running at 7.24% annualized and (excuse me while I cough) CPI running at 4.08%, the spread between PPI less CPI widened out this month to 2.99%, near the highest levels since the late 1980’s. A measure of Pipeline Inflation, the new highs in this gauge continue to suggest that Stagflation will be with us all for some time.

.....

In addition to the PPI and CPI comparison, we can also examine the pipeline ‘pass thru’ within the Wholesale price chain. To this end, the forward view is quite dim indeed as Crude Materials, the first wrung in the pipeline, are moving up at an annualized (hope you are sitting down) rate of 34.15% through today’s report, compared with the 7.24% for PPI for Finished Goods. That’s a whopping 27.74% percent of forward upside pricing pressure in the pipeline more powerful than anything seen in quite some time and confirming beyond question that the late 1970’s have returned. With Donna Summer about to start a new tour in the summer months ahead, we can only wonder, will Disco balls be next?

.....

Of course, we always marvel at how the media manages to focus on the one grain of potential good news in any economic story, while managing to ignore the other 99% of bad news. So much gets swept right past the harried US public. Take for example the Retail Sales report issued just last week. On Thursday of last week, the Department of Commerce announced that Retail Sales for May 2008 grew by 1% versus April, and grew by 2.5% compared with year earlier (May 2007) data. At first blush, many economists heralded the better than expected data as a sign that US Consumers, freshly in receipt of some $41 Billion in government stimulus payment checks, were dutifully spending their new found riches at the stores and malls of the United States. This report came on the back of a reported surge of 1.80% in retail sales in April, leading some to wonder, if Retail Sales are doing so well, how could the United States possibly be in a recession?

.....

Now before going on, I want to be exceptionally clear. Over the years both myself and others have written about the utterly ridiculous process of reporting inflation known as ‘Core’ Inflation, which excludes Food and Energy. Originally designed to supposedly ‘smooth out’ and detect the underlying trend of inflation, the over focus on ‘Core Inflation’ has become perhaps the most absurd concept that has ever besieged the ‘science’ of economics. After all, we all have to eat and we all have to get around, so if Food and Energy prices are spiking, in the real world this is where we all live and this affects us all in a profound way.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[MilesColtrane]

31. Crude materials up 34%?

Does this portend Weimar Republic-like inflation?

I guess I need to buy a wheelbarrow while I can still afford one.

[PfcHammer]

2. RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml">RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 7:40am BST 18/06/2008

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
RBS warning: Be prepared for a 'nasty' period

Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.

:scared:

[DemReadingDU]

4. more from the article

"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.

RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.

"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.

and more...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml

[ozymandius]

7. Thank you for this PfcHammer.

And welcome to the SMW! :hi:

This supports the sentiment here, as it has been stated in many ways, that we have very far left to fall to repair the damage Greenscam and his ilk have done over the past twenty five years. I may get flamed over this but I'll say it anyway: Businesses that perpetrated these excesses (including banks) need to fail. The earnings were unrealistic, based on nothing but easy money and golden rhetoric. Failure is therapeutic. It heals the broken parts of the economic system and strengthens the weaknesses through reforms.

Conversely, if you look at every major decision on economic policy that has been made over the past twenty five years (with the possible exception of Sarbanes-Oxley) we have witnessed a sustained attack on weakening the strengths of our body economic. As mentioned here yesterday - my belief is that those who benefited from the wild excesses over these years benignly, perhaps inappropriately, through the right-place/right-time scenario should not be marched to the guillotine. That punishment is reserved for the engineers of our morass.

Traditional banks should never have been perverted through legislative action to act as investment brokerages. Period. Wanton speculation possibly could have been nipped in the bud if access to a titanic supply of money in traditionally conservative portfolios had been placed off-limits. Saving money, rather than investing it in some "exotic" product, should not be penalized.

As always: This opinion and $1.75 will get you a grande-size cup of coffee.

[Pale Blue Dot]

10. I agree with you completely.

Unfortunately, this necessary remedy is going to hurt (and even kill) many innocent people.

This sucks.

[ozymandius]

14. Yes it does suck.

That is my bruising lament. The kids I see in the classroom: I know how some of their families live so far on the edge that any notion of a safety net is almost meaningless. They will be affected. Their parents suffer the same pressure that my wife and I experience at home. This is not a "why me?" scenario. This is more a "why anybody?" scenario.

Why should we feel the brutish punishment resulting from schemes that we did not buy into or, even less-so, knew of their existence? That sucks.

[Pale Blue Dot]

15. I know what you mean; I'm a teacher too.

I'm very worried about my students and their families.

[Pale Blue Dot]

11. I started a seperate thread on this in LBN.

I hope you don't mind. Thanks for posting this.

[burf]

18. An article by Mike Whitney along the same storyline

Down for the Count
Bush's "ownership society" hits the canvas

By Mike Whitney

There is no way to escape the day of reckoning now facing the financial system; the hundreds of bank failures, the corporate defaults, the meltdown in real estate, the massive loss of jobs, the dreary contraction of credit, the tumbling stock market, and the blow to our national confidence. But there is a way to rebuild, to reassert control over our own currency; to "even the playing field" and recommit to a strong middle class; to smash the system that diverts the greatest portion of the nation's wealth to a handful of unelected oligarchs whose main objectives are to expand their own personal power and subvert the democratic process. The existing system cannot meet the challenges of the new century. It's gotta go.

Link: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20116.htm

[ozymandius]

23. "expand their own personal power and subvert the democratic process"

That is what it has been all about since the age of President James Monroe. Oh! These white men and their "burdens".

[UpInArms]

29. hit by the clue bus, CBS moves its pinky - U.K. bank's strategist warns of stock market crash

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/uk-banks-strategist-warns-stock/story.aspx?guid=%7BF1CFA2A7%2DBE42%2D4EF4%2D9004%2D0157CDE868B4%7D&dist=msr_5

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- A credit strategist from the Royal Bank of Scotland warned investors in a note that the S&P 500 may fall by more than 300 points by September and that iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar, according to a report in the Daily Telegraph newspaper. "Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," the RBS strategist, Bob Janjuah, was quoted as saying.

[UpInArms]

34. Commentary: Recipe for a market meltdown

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/five-things-pave-way-downside/story.aspx?guid=%7b07D009FC-CFAB-4593-AB9A-89F99CB89727%7d&print=true&dist=printMidSection

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- My grandfather taught me many things, one of which was to always think positive. As a financial professional, I'm careful not to confuse that perspective with blind bullishness.

As we edge toward the midpoint of the calendar year, the bovine have reason for optimism. Despite credit contagion, debt unwinds, structural smoke, geopolitical risks and a housing abyss, mainstay market proxies are down only mid-single digits.

I've learned a few things over the course of my career, three of which currently warrant particular attention. First, the reaction to news is more important than the news itself. Second, stay humble or the market will do it for you. Third, discipline must always trump conviction.

With those lessons in tow, I wanted to explore another topic, one that few people have a motivation to discuss. It's the risk of a seismic equity readjustment, a possibility that has much higher odds than most people currently foresee.

The market is fluid and multi-linear, which is a fancy way of saying "things can change and they often do." Still, the ingredients for a downside disconnect exist, conditional elements that, when brewed together, could combine for a toxic ride that will come to define 2008.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 06/14
Briefing.com 370K
Consensus 375K
Prior 384K

10:00 Leading Indicators May
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.0%
Prior 0.1%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Jun
Briefing.com -10.0
Consensus -10.0
Prior -15.6

10:30 Crude Inventories 06/14
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -4560K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

40. Petroleum Inventories Report:

05. U.S. distillate supply up 2.6 mln brls last week
10:38 AM ET, Jun 18, 2008

06. U.S. gasoline supply down 1.2 mln brls last week
10:37 AM ET, Jun 18, 2008

07. U.S. crude supply down 1.2 mln brls last week: Energy Dept
10:36 AM ET, Jun 18, 2008

[DemReadingDU]

5. Chrysler deal doesn't seem to be panning out for Cerberus

6/18/08

DETROIT: A year ago, Cerberus Capital Management took Detroit by storm, snapping up Chrysler in a $7.4 billion deal that the buyout firm said was intended to rescue a struggling American icon.

Now the more pressing question may be how to rescue that bet for Cerberus investors.

Surging oil prices and a slump in sales have exposed the weakness of Chrysler's position and its reliance on trucks and SUVs and the U.S. market, raising more urgent questions about the end game for the automaker under private ownership.

By some measures, Chrysler faces even deeper problems than its larger rivals Ford Motor and General Motors, which have been able to use overseas earnings to cushion the blow from the downturn in U.S. sales that has hit the industry this year.


Chrysler is not the only bad bet in Cerberus's auto-related portfolio. Its stake in the lender GMAC, which it bought from General Motors, is also in trouble because of problems in its mortgage arm, ResCap.

Gerry Meyers, a professor of business at the University of Michigan and a former chief executive of American Motors, said he saw "an outside possibility" of a merger of Chrysler and Ford Motor followed by an even deeper program of combined cost cuts.

"It would be the end of Chrysler, of course," he said.

more...
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/18/business/deal19.php

[skoalyman]

13. Morning all

:hi: I'm no economic expert but I don't foresee a big draw down in oil today with the price being high lately.I did hear on the radio on the way home that the report to congress on the oil speculators hasn't turned up any inconsistency's in the oil trade.So more or less letting the speculator's off the hook.who knows I'm no expert.

[DemReadingDU]

6. National Century trial Columbus Ohio - another trial in August

Tuesday, June 17, 2008 - 3:40 PM EDT

Judge keeps August trial date for National Century founderBusiness First of Columbus - by Kevin Kemper

The former CEO of Dublin-based National Century Financial Enterprises Inc. will be standing trial on fraud charges in August as planned.

Criminal defense attorneys for Lance Poulsen, a founder and owner of the defunct health-care financing company, had asked U.S. District Court Judge Algenon L. Marbley to push back Poulsen's criminal fraud trial to October so they could have more time to prepare a defense.

Marbley ruled June 13 that after three previous continuances, Poulsen would not be allowed a fourth delay. His trial will begin on Aug. 4 as scheduled, Marbley ruled.

Poulsen, 64, ran National Century until it collapsed in 2002. The government has accused him of directing a fraud that lasted for years and resulted in the loss of nearly $3 billion in investor funds. It is on those charges that he will stand trial in August.

Poulsen was convicted March 26 on witness-tampering charges stemming from allegations that he and friend Karl Demmler tried to bribe a government witness. The witness Poulsen and Demmler allegedly tried to bribe was once a National Century executive. She helped the government win convictions of five former National Century executives who were on trial in Columbus in February and March.

Poulsen has been in government custody since his October indictment on the witness tampering charges,

http://washington.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/06/16/daily13.html


link backwards to previous articles...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3315260&mesg_id=3315277


Note: I haven't seen anything on whereabouts of fugitive Rebecca S. Parrett.

[ozymandius]

16. I have been wondering about Ms. Parrett.

This topic came up in conversation recently. The mysterious Samuel Israel is missing too.

[DemReadingDU]

33. Missing U.S. fund manager Israel not dead

6/17/08 Missing U.S. fund manager Israel not dead

A former hedge fund manager convicted of fraud is alive and on the run a week after staging a suicide on a bridge above New York's Hudson River, U.S. authorities said on Monday.

The U.S. Marshals Service confirmed that Samuel Israel III, who engineered the $2 trillion (1 trillion pound) hedge fund industry's most brazen and long-running fraud, did not leap to his death last Monday when his GMC Envoy was found on a bridge above the Hudson River, its engine idling and the words "suicide is painless" etched in dust on its hood.

"Suicide has been ruled out," William Dundon, a spokesman for the U.S. Marshals Service, said in an e-mail to Reuters.

Another law enforcement official who is familiar with the investigation, but not authorized to speak publicly on the matter said "the investigation is solely a fugitive investigation now."

Israel, 48, had been due to begin serving a 20-year prison term in Ayer, Massachusetts a week ago.

Officials would not say how authorities had learned that Israel, who suffers back and heart problems, was alive. But after no body washed up on the Hudson's shores for days, police became skeptical he was dead.

In April, Israel was sentenced for fabricating investment returns, making up an accounting firm to sign off on documents and ultimately stealing $450 million from investors, including Indiana's DePauw University.

a bit more...
http://www.reuters.com/article/hedgeFundsNews/idUSNOA72556420080617


Hm, I wonder if he and Ms Parrett are hiding together somewhere!

[UpInArms]

36. Fraudster Israel faked death, say marshals

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/people,1073,fraudster-israel-faked-death-say-marshals,31818

When news broke last week that Samuel Israel III (pictured), the New York-based hedge fund manager and convicted fraudster, had chosen to end his life by throwing himself off a bridge into the Hudson River – he etched the words "suicide is painless" on the window of his car - many were sceptical. And they were right to be: the New York City marshals have now confirmed what many suspected all along - that Samuel's suicide was faked. They have issued a warrant for his arrest.

Samuel Israel III, as he likes to be styled, had good reason to vanish. He was due to begin a 20-year prison term for defrauding investors of $450m, a crime that came to light following the collapse of his £1bn Bayou Group hedge fund in 2005. The city marshals are not saying how they know that Israel is still alive, but their suspicions were all but confirmed when no body washed up on the Hudson's shores.

Investors recall that Israel, 48, pulled a similar stunt when Bayou collapsed. Along with his employees, he simply vanished from the company's offices and was not seen again until he was arrested. As Bayou investor Samuel Christen put it to the New York Times: "Everything about him was phoney."

[UpInArms]

37. The Fraternity of Financier Fugitives

http://www.abcnews.go.com/print?id=5184736

In addition to possibly Israel, other hedge fund managers and financiers who have dodged authorities and gone on the run include:

Salman Shariff ducked authorities for almost five years after he was indicted on federal criminal charges of securities fraud and money laundering for allegedly stealing millions of dollars from investors in his Vestron Financial hedge fund to buy himself a $2 million condo in Miami Beach, a 42-foot yacht, luxury sports cars and a modeling agency for his girlfriend. He was arrested in Queens, New York earlier this year, pled guilty to securities fraud and faces a maximum sentence of 10 years.

Michael Berger dodged law enforcement agents for five years after pleading guilty to securities fraud after his Manhattan Investment Fund lost $400 million. Along the way, he was spotted in Florida, the Caribbean island of Dominica and Austria, where he was arrested on July 6, 2007.

Angelo Haligiannis snipped off his ankle monitor and disappeared the day before he was scheduled to be sentenced to 15 years in jail after pleading guilty to one count of securities fraud for misleading investors in his Sterling Waters Capital Advisors fund. Last September, he was arrested while staying with his family at an luxury hotel on the island of Crete.

Kirk Wright eluded authorities for months after his Atlanta-based hedge fund, International Management Associates was discovered to be missing more than $110 million in client assets. He was arrested in May 2006 at the Ritz Carlton in Miami with $28,000 in cash and a Mercedes Benz and he hung himself in his jail cell with a bedsheet last month.

And most infamously, commodities trader Marc Rich never came back to the United States from Switzerland after he was indicted on charges of tax evasion and illegal trading with Iran in 1983. He lives in a villa on the shores of Lake Lucerne and vacations in St. Mortiz and Marbella, Spain, where he has vacation homes. Rich was pardoned by President Bill Clinton hours before leaving office on January 20, 2001.

sadly, Parrot did not make the list of "boys" from the frat house of disappearances

[Hugin]

38. With all that precedence...

There are those of us who post on DU who still get dog-piled when we suggest that often conspiracy theories are
actual conspiracies. *tsk*

The programming runs deep.

:tinfoilhat:

Edit: Replaced word.

[ozymandius]

8. Oil prices edge up slightly ahead of crude report

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices steadied Wednesday ahead of a U.S. government report expected to show a drop in crude oil inventories.

Investors were weighing whether expected production increases from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, would do enough to quench rising global demand. The Saudis are planning a meeting of oil producing and consuming nations in Jeddah on Sunday to seek ways to tackle soaring oil prices.

Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia told U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that it would increase oil output by 200,000 barrels a day, or by 2 percent, from June to July. In May, the country raised production by 300,000 barrels a day.

.....

Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose 57 cents to $134.58 a barrel by noon in European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract declined 60 cents to settle at $134.01 a barrel on Tuesday.

Tuesday's pullback in oil prices followed broad swings Monday, when prices surged to a record $139.89 per barrel and tumbled as low as $132.84 before closing down modestly.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

9. Have U.S. Drivers Reached Filling Point of No Return?

It took some time, but Americans are responding to rising energy costs by driving smaller cars and cutting back on miles they log on the road.

But why now, with gasoline fetching $4 a gallon, instead of a year ago, when it pushed past $3, or in 2004, when it pierced $2? Energy prices have climbed steadily for the past five years, but only recently have there been any real signs of conservation.

"I think we've reached a tipping point," said University of California, San Diego, economist James Hamilton. "There are a lot of hard numbers that show that we've actually reached a point where people are responding."

The volume of cars on U.S. roads began slipping in November below year-ago levels. The Federal Highway Administration's latest figures, for March, show U.S. drivers logged 11 billion fewer miles than a year earlier. That is a 4.3% drop and the biggest-ever year-over-year reduction in miles driven.

.....

Mr. Hamilton said the tipping point on gasoline came when prices started pinching consumers and businesses enough to force change. He calculates that U.S. expenditures on oil in the first quarter, when crude averaged $98 a barrel, came to about 5.2% of gross domestic product, up from 3.5% in 2005. With crude now fetching more than $130 a barrel, oil's share of GDP is getting closer to the peak of 8.3% hit in 1980.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121366865872779845.html?mod=hps_us_editors_picks

[ozymandius]

21. U.S. to Set New Limits on Oil Trade Overseas

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal regulators said on Tuesday that they would place stricter limits on foreign exchanges that trade American oil as concerns continue to grow about the role of speculation in rising fuel prices. Some lawmakers said the move was long overdue.

At a Senate hearing to assess its performance, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it would require the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange to adopt position limits used in the United States for the trading of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract, which is linked to a similar contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Under the new agreement, foreign officials also will share daily trading data with American authorities and report any violations. Previously they shared data on a weekly basis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/18/business/worldbusiness/18oil.html?ref=business

[ozymandius]

12. US stocks head for lower open as oil prices rise

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks headed for a lower open Wednesday as oil prices advanced and as investors awaited quarterly results from Morgan Stanley and FedEx Corp.

Light, sweet crude rose 80 cents to $134.81 in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Weekly government domestic inventory figures are due after the opening bell. Though often volatile, the week-to-week numbers have drawn increased attention in recent months as investors look for any clues about where energy prices are headed.

.....

Beyond energy concerns, Morgan Stanley and FedEx could each serve as reminders of trouble spots in the economy. Wall Street will likely pay close attention to Morgan's results and look for insights into the financial health of the company following a year of strains in the credit markets.

.....

Dow futures on Wednesday fell 31, or 0.25 percent, to 12,142. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures declined 4.60, or 0.34 percent, to 1,348.40. Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 5.00, or 0.25 percent, to 1,981.20.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080618/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[ozymandius]

17. Goldman trading risk rises while revenue falls

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs had more trading risk in the second quarter, but earned less trading revenue, in a reflection of how difficult it is for even the best regarded investment banks to generate earnings growth now.

The company's value-at-risk, a measure of trading risk known as "VaR," rose 38 percent in the second quarter from the same quarter last year. That meant the bank had maximum potential losses of $184 million (94 million pounds) on 95 percent of the trading days in the quarter, up from $133 million a year ago.

Meanwhile, trading revenue fell 16 percent from a year ago. It was Goldman's second straight quarter of higher VaR and lower trading revenue.

That raised the eyebrows of some analysts and risk management experts, who wondered if Goldman is getting fully compensated for the risks it takes by trading on behalf of clients or for its own account.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/stocksAndSharesNews/idUKNOA83662020080618

---

Goldman Sachs spokesperson say that you shouldn't read anything into these numbers. Ooooooh....Kayyyyy

[UpInArms]

19. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 73.679 Change +0.153 (+0.21%)

Pound Unexpectedly Drops On BoE Forecasts Of 4 Percent Inflation

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Pound_Unexpectedly_Drops_On_BoE_1213746325391.html

Dollar Finds Little Help From Heavy Concentration of Data

Tuesday’s US economic docket offered the dollar its most concentrated event risk for the week; yet the otherwise volatile data would deliver few surprises for a market that is already veraciously discounting future Fed rate decisions. The morning opened with a range of data that would cover both growth and inflation trends. With futures traders considering a quarter point rate hike in September a near certainty, there an obvious interesting in the produce price index for May. Upstream inflation pressures accelerated more quickly than expected to a 7.2 percent annualized pace that fell just short of the multi-decade high set just a few months back. Even when the 4.9 percent jump in energy costs and 0.8 percent increase in food prices were excluded, the core figure would notably match its own 16-year high. However, considering the market’s focus on the cost at the pump in the grocery line and the fact that the front-line CPI numbers were released last Friday, this data added little to the mix. For growth, the session’s data was not encouraging for the greenback. The housing market – the US economy’s anchor – reported an ongoing drop in construction. Housing starts slipped 3.3 percent to a 17-year low and permits for future projects fell 1.3 percent as demand sufferers from evaporating home values, ballooning inventories, rising mortgage rates and plunging consumer confidence. The business community was similarly under pressure with industrial production contracting 0.2 percent and capacity utilization edging down to a new three-and-a-half year low. To top it off, trade activity was lending little help to expansion despite the dollar’s recent record lows. The current account deficit for the first quarter ballooned more than expected to a $172.5 billion shortfall owing largely to rising fuel costs burdening the physical balance and reduced foreign investment curbing net income.

...more...

Euro Cant Hold 1.5500 As Currencies Look For Direction

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Euro_Cant_Hold_1_5500_As_1213784267927.html

A very quiet meandering night in the currency markets with EURUSD continuing to consolidate around the 1.5500 level in a now very familiar fashion. With economic calendar for the day virtually empty, order flow and a smattering of central bank commentary were the primary factors driving trade.

ECB Member Jorgen Stark noted that the 3.7% inflation level was “may be unacceptably high” stoking hopes of euro bulls that a rate hike may be coming in July. However, as we noted yesterday the inflationary numbers from all the G-11 nations are elevated strictly because of oil prices with core readings considerably more muted. If oil prices recede from their Olympian highs much of the impetus for the rate hikes may disappear.

In the meantime the ECB will meet a tremendous amount of institutional opposition from the EZ business sector which is already feeling the negative effects of tighter credit. Today’s weak construction PMI numbers which showed a decline of –2.4% on a year over year basis is just the latest data point to suggest that growth in the 15 member union is decelerating rapidly.

In UK the release of the BoE minutes provided little surprise with members voting 8-1 to keep rates steady as the lone dove David Blanchflower opted for a 25bp cut. Cable found temporary strength in the following passage “For some members, news had been sufficient to consider whether an immediate rise in Bank Rate was warranted. If there were a serious threat to medium-term inflation expectations then a pre-emptive rise in rates would be appropriate. Delay would only increase the eventual costs of bringing inflation back to target, “ but the rally soon fizzled as MPC members noted that there were also arguments against the hike. In short, the market concluded that the BoE will remain stationary for the time being with danger to the downside still the more likely outcome if economic conditions in UK deteriorated further.

In North America today, the data calendar only contains MBA mortgage approvals, leaving currencies at the mercy of macro factors such as stocks and oil and unless there is tremendous volatility in those markets, the listless trading of Asia and Europe should continue into the US open.

...more...

[ozymandius]

25. After reading this I wonder what they're waiting for?

It sounds like currency markets are waiting for something to go "boom" - but what? There seems to be dithering around technicals while looking for a clue about how to act among the macro issues. Are they making no decision out of fear of making a bad decision?

[UpInArms]

27. methinks that they were expecting the G8 to tell them the answer

to the toxic stew they created. And now .... drumrolls quietly in the background .... tada!

They know as little as they did when they all began to party on the ice when it was firmer - only the summer sun is starting to thin out the ice and they don't even know where to put their feet for fear of falling in - and even worse, now they are all tied together - so when the first one goes, they will all go down together

(jmho)

:hi:

[AnneD]

43. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. Ozy, that is the $64K question (and I mean that in EVERY sense of the word-for all you Boomers that remember the scandals).

They are nothing more than fan dancers hiding their activities by the flimsiest of camouflage. The hurricane winds are picking up and soon they won't be able to hide behind those plumes fans. But remember this, every hurricane starts off as a puff of wind, in a country far far away. So my guess is that it will not be something major-just some small inconsequential incidence in and of itself. But it will shake them to the core-blowing away all sense of stability. Their very refusal to make a decision is in and of itself a decision. And they will have to abide by that decision.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

20. k&r. nt

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. mortgage refinance applications plunge: MBA

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1739278220080618

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages dropped for the fourth week in the last five as soaring rates on standard, fixed-rate mortgages choked off refinancing opportunities, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity fell 8.7 percent to 508.4 in the week ended June 13.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications tumbled last week by 15 percent to 1,378.6 -- its lowest since July 2006. The gauge of loan requests for home purchases declined 4.3 percent to 360.2.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.57 percent in the week, up 33 basis points from the prior week and the highest since July 2007.

Yields on fixed-income securities that drive mortgage rates have surged this month as a chorus of central bankers, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, shed light on the potential for faster inflation in the months ahead. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields have climbed almost a full percentage point over the past three months.

The increase in mortgage rates is removing one of the few supports to the U.S. housing market that has been in decline since 2006. Costlier interest rates have hurt the outlook for U.S. homebuilders that have been trying to dig themselves out from burgeoning inventories of unsold homes, the National Association of Home Builders said on Monday.

...more...

[PfcHammer]

24. Lehman CEO Fuld Faces Growing Pressure to Sell

Lehman CEO Fuld Faces Growing Pressure to Sell

As discontent grows inside Lehman Brothers over the firm's financial problems, pressure is building on Chief Executive Dick Fuld to sell the securities firm to a bigger player, CNBC has learned.

Inside Lehman , executives are conceding that unless business conditions radically improve -- and all signs point to the opposite -- or the firm is sold to a larger player, Lehman may have make large cuts to its workforce of 26,189.

Already fear is spreading through the senior ranks of the investment bank: Worried bankers and traders have recently been making frantic calls to better capitalized banks, like Credit Suisse and others in hopes of landing jobs before the cuts come.

People on Wall Street say Fuld is already weighing a possible sale. Possible bidders include HSBC HSBC HOLDINGS P L C
HBC , Barclays and
Toronto Dominion . CNBC has reported that private equity firm Blackstone was weighing a large stake in Lehman.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25217408

Starting to look like LEH may go the way of BSC. Tough times for financials and IBs. Down in pre-market

[UpInArms]

26. Morgan Stanley profit falls 60%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/morgan-stanley-profit-falls-60/story.aspx?guid=%7BEA10554F%2D1170%2D468A%2DA5D0%2D212F54827E04%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley (MS: 40.59, -1.70, -4.0%) , the wall Street brokerage firm, said Wednesday its second quarter profit fell 60% to $1.03 billion, or 95 cents a share, from $2.58 billion, or $2.45 a share ago. The company's revenues in the quarter fell to $6.51 billion from $10.5 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected the firm to report profit of 95 cents a share, on revenue of $7.05 billion.

[ozymandius]

30. Holy Surprised Economists, Batman!

When do they start buying back their own stock? Otherwise it's going to take a huge hit.

[Hugin]

32. -taps out harmonica- On that revelation... Time for some music: "Slip Slidin' Away"

"Slip Slidin' Away" -- Simon & Garfunkel

"Chorus:
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you're slip sliding away

Whoa and I know a man, he came from my hometown
He wore his passion for his woman like a thorny crown
He said dolores, I live in fear
My love for you is so overpowering, I'm afraid that I will disappear

Chorus

I know a woman, (who) became a wife
These are the very words she uses to describe her life
She said a good day ain't got no rain
She said a bad day is when I lie in the bed
And I think of things that might have been

Chorus

And I know a father who had a son
He longed to tell him all the reasons for the things he'd done
He came a long way just to explain
He kissed his boy as he lay sleeping
Then he turned around and he headed home again

Chorus

Whoa God only knows, God makes his plan
The informations unavailable to the mortal man
Were working our jobs, collect our pay
Believe were gliding down the highway, when in fact were slip sliding away

Chorus repeats 2x"

http://www.lyricsfreak.com/s/simon+and+garfunkel/slip+sliding+away_20124691.html

And for you Marketeering 'Tubers...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hp6Zx_fzpq8

[Robbien]

47. CNBC happy talk: Morgan Stanley meets analysts' expectations

Nothing to see here. Move along.

[UpInArms]

28. Managers most negative on stocks in decade

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/managers-most-negative-stocks-decade/story.aspx?guid=%7BC57E8123%2DC8D3%2D4763%2DA849%2D6AEA5712A74B%7D&dist=msr_5

LONDON (MarketWatch) - Fund managers took the most negative stance on equities for a decade in June amid worries about the potential impact of stagflation, Merrill Lynch's monthly fund manager survey showed.

"This month's survey describes a world where global growth and profit expectations are deteriorating at the same time as expectations of higher interest rates are rising on the back of inflation," the survey said.

A net 61% of fund managers believe that the global economy will weaken over the next year, up from 39% taking this view in May.

At the same time, the survey showed that 33% of managers believe that inflation will be higher in 12 months time, up from 25% a month ago.

Meanwhile, a net 36% now expect higher short-term interest rates. This view contrasts with May, when a net 4% of managers believed that short-term interest rates would fall.

The changed view on interest rates follows comments from officials at the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in which they said controlling inflation remains at the top of their agenda. The ECB went as far as saying a rate hike was possible in July.

...more...

[UpInArms]

35. 10:19 EST numbers and blather

Dow 12,091.10 69.20 (0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,438.37 19.36 (0.79%)
S&P 500 1,342.28 8.65 (0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% 0.037

NYSE Volume 712,775,312.5
Nasdaq Volume 317,156,937.5

10:00 am : The major indices extend their opening losses in mostly broad-based weakness. Nine of the ten sectors are trending lower, with financials (-2.1%) and consumer discretionary (-1.3%) under the most selling pressure.

The materials sector (+0.1%) is outperforming as gold climbs +0.7% and commodities rise 0.4%. Crude oil is up 0.2%, and will go on the move at 10:35 ET with the release of the government's weekly energy inventory statistics.

Shares of pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE 18.26, +0.54) are up 3% after the company reached a settlement with Ranbaxy Laboratories over the sale of generic versions of the cholesterol drug Lipitor. Under the agreement, Pfizer will not face generic competition until November 2011 -- an extra 20 months. The agreement will have a significant impact on Pfizer's earnings, considering in 2007 Lipitor -- the world's best selling drug -- accounted for $12.6 billion of Pfizer's $48.4 billion in revenue.

The health care sector is outperforming on a relative basis, as it trades near the unchanged mark.DJ30 -70.59 NASDAQ -20.02 SP500 -9.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1395/881/121 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1796/846/93 mln

[Doctor_J]

39. When was DJIA last under 12K?

will it hit 10,578.24 before Nov 2?

[UpInArms]

41. I think that would have been March 14, 2008

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 14, 2008

Dow... 11,951.09 -194.65 (-1.60%)
Nasdaq... 2,212.49 -51.12 (-2.26%)
S&P 500... 1,288.14 -27.34 (-2.08%)
Gold future... 999.50 +5.70 (+0.57%)
30-Year Bond 4.35% -0.11 (-2.38%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.42% -0.11 (-3.20%)

[UpInArms]

42. PIEHOLER doing the crapspew

03. Bush: proposes speed-up of refining permits
10:42 AM ET, Jun 18, 2008

04. Bush: in short term, U.S. economy will have to rely on oil
10:40 AM ET, Jun 18, 2008

08. Bush calls for lifting of ban on offshore oil drilling
10:35 AM ET, Jun 18, 2008

[UpInArms]

44. AIG ex-CEO severance seen as high as $68 mln: analyst

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080617/bs_nm/aig_sullivan_severance_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc's (AIG.N) former chief executive, Martin Sullivan, who stepped down on Sunday amid large subprime losses, could receive up to $68 million in severance pay and benefits, according to an estimate compiled by an outside research firm.

<snip>

AIG, in a regulatory filing earlier this year, said Sullivan was due a termination pay and benefits package of $35 million, as long as he left for good reasons, or was asked to step down "without cause."

The figure includes salary of $5 million, $30 million in severance pay, and $32,316 in medical and life insurance benefits but does not include pensions, or stock awards.

Sullivan is the latest in a line of executives who have resigned from their firms after large losses from subprime investments. AIG has, over the past two quarters, written down more than $20 billion in assets linked to subprime mortgages.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. Thornburg gets SEC subpoenas, survival in doubt

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080618/bs_nm/thornburg_dc

BANGALORE (Reuters) - Thornburg Mortgage Inc (TMA.N), the jumbo mortgage lender that lost $3.31 billion in the first quarter, said on Wednesday it has received subpoenas from U.S. securities regulators and its survival remains in doubt.

The disclosures reflect further problems for the Santa Fe, New Mexico-based lender, which was on the brink of bankruptcy in March before raising $1.35 billion of capital.

In its delayed quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Thornburg said it is complying with SEC subpoenas for documents.

It said the subpoenas, issued on April 24 and May 23, relate to a previously disclosed probe into Thornburg's restatement of 2007 financial results, demands for more collateral by its lenders, its accounting for mortgage-backed securities, and various disclosures.

<snip>

Thornburg also said it has been "significantly and negatively impacted" by worsening mortgage market conditions, including falling home prices, rising borrower defaults, credit rating agency downgrades of mortgage securities, and illiquidity.

It said uncertainty about liquidity, financing and the outcome of a planned tender offer for preferred stock "continue to raise substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern for the foreseeable future."

The lender also said it is defending against class-action litigation accusing it of making false and misleading statements about its financial health, inflating its stock price.

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. CEOs' economic view falls near five-year low

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1845331120080618

BOSTON (Reuters) - U.S. chief executives' second-quarter view of the economy was the bleakest in almost five years, with more now expecting their companies to cut jobs over the next six months, according to a survey by the Business Roundtable released on Wednesday.

The quarterly CEO Economic Outlook Index tumbled five points to 74.5 in the quarter, its lowest level since October 2003. Any reading above 50 indicates growth.

CEOs also cut their overall U.S. economic growth forecast, looking for 2008 gross domestic product to rise 1.3 percent, down from 1.5 percent forecast last quarter.

Thirty-one percent said they expected their companies' U.S. headcount to fall over the next six months, versus 28 percent who expected it to rise.

Sixty-eight percent said they expected their sales to rise over the next six months, while 52 percent expect their U.S. capital spending to remain flat over that period.

...more...

[radfringe]

48. wanna know who's who on each other's board of directors?

what's the connection between a company like halliburton and GM? check out theyrule.net

it's not what I would call "user friendly" - but if you don't mind doing some digging - it's a goldmine

[UpInArms]

57. wowie zowie radfringe!

that was awesome -

many thanks!

:thumbsup:

[radfringe]

61. once you figure out how to use the site

it's an incest fest...

[UpInArms]

49. OfficeMax eliminating 2,700 store positions

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-wed-office-max-layoffs-jun18,0,6393013.story

OfficeMax Inc., the struggling office-supply retailer, said Tuesday that it is reducing the number of managers throughout its chain of 900 stores in an effort to streamline operations.

The Naperville-based company, which has 50 stores in the Chicago area, will be cutting half of its assistant managers and two-thirds of its store supervisors.

About 2,700 positions are being eliminated.

OfficeMax also is creating new, lower-paid "specialist" positions on the selling floor in larger stores that will take up some of the slack. The specialists will concentrate on more complicated products, such as office furniture and technology.

...more...

[Robbien]

50. Chart of writedowns by banks/investment firms. Total to Date: $396 Billion

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a5GaivCMZu_M&refer=canada

Chart has top 100, list below is top ten

Firm Writedown & Loss Capital Raised

Citigroup 42.9 44.1

UBS 38.2 28.6

Merrill Lynch 37.1 17.9

HSBC 19.5 3.5

IKB Deutsche 15.9 13.1

Royal Bank of Scotland 15.2 24

Bank of America 15.1 20.7

Morgan Stanley 14.1 5.6

JPMorgan Chase 9.8 7.8

Credit Suisse 9.6 1.5

It has always been my understanding that JPMorgan was one of the largest holders of derivatives, but this chart has it as one of the minor players in the writeoff game. JPMorgan gaming the system somehow?

[antigop]

51. Bill on 401(k) fee disclosure stymied

http://www.propertyandcasualtyinsurancenews.com/cms/nupc/Breaking%20News/2008/06/13-DISCLOSURE-dp

One of the authors of legislation to enhance the transparency of 401(k) plan fees said the measure will not move this year in Congress, while the Department of Labor continues to work on their own disclosure rules.

"We're not going to move it," Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee, told Congress Daily. "We don't see the president
signing it. And with the amount of time left, it's just too difficult to get anything through the Senate anyway."

Rep. Miller also cited differences with the House Ways and Means Committee, which also has a say because 401(k) plans are administered under the tax code and therefore fall under Ways and Means jurisdiction.

Industry supporters of the bill cast the decision to wait until next year, and the next Congress, as the sensible option given the amount of legislative work that would have been required and the shortened congressional calendar during an election year.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

52. Natural Gas.

!

[Theres-a]

53. !

:faints:

[skoalyman]

54. Key banks having troubles of there own but yet

I was up town and saw they were building a new one go figure.:shrug: Looking like oils trying to inch closer to 140 :scared:

[DemReadingDU]

55. Fifth Third is building a new bank near us

:shrug:

[skoalyman]

56. that is weird you would think during this down turn

they wouldn't be expanding

[DemReadingDU]

59. It's probably been on the books for awhile

and it's not really an expansion. The bank is closing down the branch inside a grocery store which is 1 block from the new bank and also closing down an older branch in an old strip shopping center about 1 mile from the new branch. So business-wise, it probably made a lot of sense. But I don't know if anything makes sense anymore.

[ozymandius]

58. details of today's sticky end

Dow 12,029.06 Down 131.24 (1.08%)
Nasdaq 2,429.71 Down 28.02 (1.14%)
S&P 500 1,337.81 Down 13.12 (0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 4.154% Down 0.071
NYSE Volume 4,514,633,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,072,650,000

4:25 pm : The major indices settled with steep losses on Wednesday, after traders digested mixed earnings reports, news that another bank is raising capital and volatile crude prices.

On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX 82.72, -1.61) reported quarterly earnings that missed the consensus estimate. The Memphis, Tenn.-based company issued fiscal year 2009 earnings guidance well below expectations, citing sluggish U.S. demand and record energy prices.

Morgan Stanley's (MS 40.79, +0.20) second quarter earnings per share fell 61% year-over-year, although the results were good enough to top Wall Street's low expectations. However, its revenue fell well short of estimates.

One day after Goldman Sachs said U.S. banks may need to raise as much as $65 billion in additional capital, regional bank Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 9.26, -3.47) announced plans to shore up its balance sheet. Specifically, the Ohio-based bank is going to raise $1 billion in fresh capital, sell $1 billion in assets and cut its quarterly dividend by 66% to $0.15 per share.

Financials (-1.2%) fell as much as 2.5%, hitting their lowest level since 2003. The sector managed to stage a modest recovery, cutting its loss in half by the end of the day. Goldman Sachs (GS 183.05, +3.61) provided leadership, after its stock advanced in response to several positive brokerage comments.

Crude oil rose 1.7% to $136.30 per barrel after trading in a volatile manner throughout the session. The government's weekly energy report showed a smaller-than-expected drop in crude inventories, and an unexpected decline in gasoline stockpiles.

Weakness was broad-based on Wednesday, with all of the ten economic sectors posting a loss, and 78% of S&P 500 components settling the day in the red. However, there were several positive corporate items.

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE 17.79, +0.07) said its cholesterol drug Lipitor will not face generic competition for an extra 20 months after reaching a settlement with Ranbaxy Laboratories. The agreement will have a significant impact on Pfizer's earnings, considering in 2007 Lipitor -- the world's best selling drug -- accounted for $12.6 billion of Pfizer's $48.4 billion in revenue.

General Mills (GIS 62.68, +1.95) saw some buying interest after strong sales prompted the company to issue upside earnings guidance for its latest quarter and for fiscal year 2008.

Despite increasing energy costs, trucking company YRC Worldwide (YRCW 17.68, +0.90) reaffirmed its second quarter guidance, giving its shares a 5% boost. Its strength helped the Dow Transportation Average outperform with a 0.3% gain, despite the dour outlook from FedEx.

Boeing (BA 74.68, +0.30) will get another chance to bid on the aerial refueling tanker contract for the Air Force after the Government Accountability Office declared the Air Force made a "number of significant errors." This is a blow to Northrop Grumman (NOC 70.00, -1.09), the original winner of the contract. The deal could be worth up to $40 billion.DJ30 -131.24 NASDAQ -28.02 NQ100 -1.1% R2K -0.8% SP400 -0.8% SP500 -13.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 790/2.06 bln/2050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 850/1.28 bln/2246

[Ghost Dog]

60. Did I say, the other day, "Kerouac's"

"Sometimes a Great Notion"?

Of course I meant to say: Ken Kesey's.

eg. http://www.pcs.org/sometimes/

Vamos, additional (old) music link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVJYAg2L72w&feature=related