Payrolls Probably Fell for Fifth Month: U.S. Economy Preview

[UpInArms]

Source: Bloomberg

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost jobs for a fifth month in May and manufacturing contracted, signaling the economy is stagnating, economists said before reports this week.

Payrolls probably dropped by 60,000 workers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department's June 6 report. Figures tomorrow may show the Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to 48.5 in May.

Credit restrictions triggered by foreclosures, along with soaring food and fuel prices, have caused spending to slow, prompting banks, construction companies and manufacturers to fire workers. Rising joblessness heightens the risk that consumers will keep retrenching, further hurting growth.

``The job market is really emphasizing how bad things are in the economy,'' said Lindsey Piegza, an economic analyst at FTN Financial in New York. ``Payroll declines will further weaken consumer spending.''

The projected decrease in May payrolls would follow a decline of 20,000 in April that brought the total number of jobs lost so far this year to 260,000. The jobless rate likely rose to 5.1 percent from 5 percent, according to the survey median.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aUYG2fgTYF8s

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"consumers will keep retrenching" and that will be the cause that is seized upon

:shakeshead:

[PSPS]

1. A more accurate unemployment figure is over 9%

From: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/april-jobs-another-report-from-bizarro.html

Table A-12

Table A-12 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Let's take a look



If you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. The official government number fell to 5.0% in April, but Table A-12 suggests it rose to 9.2%. I believe the latter number is on the low side.

[KillCapitalism]

2. "I believe the latter number is on the low side."

I so agree. The unemployment rate in my area alone is about 19%.

[Doctor_J]

4. Hartmann said Thursday that using the 1980 parameters, the real

unemployment rate is between 10 and 11%. Reagan and Smirk both redid the way the numbers are reported to make it look better than is really is.

During the GOP Great Depression I think unemployment was about 18-20% so we probably won't get that bad unless McSame is elected or otherwise named president.

[PSPS]

6. Reagan began fudging the employment statistics

In 1983, Reagan added the military into the "number of employed" to make the figure look better than it was. This was removed in 1993 and, instead, replaced with "discouraged workers" and other shenanigans to give an even better-looking fake result. It's all soviet-style propaganda.



More at: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/quelle-surprise-unemployment-stats-dont.html

[JDPriestly]

8. And that does not include the many, many "retirees" who would

like to be working but have taken early retirement because they had no choice. The first workers to be unemployed are the less desirable ones including people over 60, perhaps even 55, and those with slight disabilities.

[Doctor_J]

3. Is it a recession yet?

:eyes:

[lovuian]

5. economics 101 You can't have 90% of a countrys assets owned

by a few

A recession is here and a depression is certainly an ugly possiblity

[whistle]

7. Why probably, everyone except republicans knows that jobs fell big time last month

...the only reason for printing this is to soften the effect of an 80,000 plus job loss

[uppityperson]

9. I'd be happy with only stagnation, would stop going down down down.

[DollyM]

10. tell me about it . . .

My husband lost his job 9 months ago which means unemployment ended three months ago. He has had over a dozen interviews and what we are finding is that jobs that once got maybe five or 10 applicants are now getting 50 to 100. My husband is 55, with a Master's degree and years of experience, he is continually getting passed over in favor of younger and less experienced people who will take any job at any pay. He finally swallowed his pride and went and applied at Wal-Mart a couple of months ago and is working part time there as a greeter. I made the mistake of being self employed and taking time off to raise a family figuring my experience and education would also allow me to walk back into a good job. No such luck. So things are pretty bad for us. All we can do is keep looking but I am scared to death that next week or next month there may not be enough money to pay the bills and feed our family. Then what?

[Supersedeas]

11. feed them more sports and weather