involving occupation of the Venezuelan state of Zulia (where much of the oil is), which borders Colombia--similar to the currently unfolding Bushite plan in Bolivia, of using the white separatist movement to split off the four gas/oil rich eastern provinces, which border Paraguay. This is what JohnnyCougar's post is about--the Zulia plot.
Speaking of Paraguay, I wonder if leftist Fernando Lugo's recent election as president of Paraguay is a monkey wrench in the possible Bushite plan to funnel U.S. soldiers into white separatist provinces in Bolivia, in support of these fascist bastards' "independence," and to create a fascist enclave in South America, comprised of Paraguay and east Bolivia, in the southern half of the Bolivarian revolution. Lugo--like Correa in Ecuador--opposes the U.S. air base and U.S. boots on the ground in Paraguay. And he has much in common with the many other social justice leftists elected all across South America. He is a former bishop, known as "the bishop of the poor." With his election, the Bushites are reduced to NO strategic ground in the "southern cone." In the north, of course, they have Colombia (bordering Venezuela and Ecuador), on which they've larded %5.5 BILLION in military aid to help with the extermination of union leaders, small peasant farmers, human rights workers and others, and as a staging area for plots against the leftist democracies. But in the south, it's now all leftist governments (Bolivia, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Chile.) Peru, currently run by corrupt "free traders" is in the middle of it all. (It will likely go leftist in the next election cycle.)
The Bushites have supported, funded and organized--and probably armed--the rich white separatist landowners in eastern Bolivia, but have no way to get to Bolivia with overt U.S. military aid.* It is land-locked, and with Lugo now president of Paraguay, I can't imagine any of the neighboring governments lending an airport to Bushites for interference in Bolivia. But the eastern Bolivian fascist enclave also thus becomes more important to Bush Cartel planners. It is their only wedge in the southern region.
As for Venezuela and Zulia, there
will be a war if Colombia/U.S. tries to take Zulia. Venezuela is not as neatly divided up between indigenous/leftists and white/fascists as Bolivia is. The Venezuela Analysis report that JohnnyCougar cites has Uribe objecting to the plan for this reason--even rightwing Venezuelans would object, and the Chavez government and the people of Venezuela would put up a ferocious fight. However, Brownfield seems to override Uribe, which fits quite well with my perception of Uribe as a "bought and paid for" Bush Cartel tool (as he was a tool of the Medellin Cartel before). He may have no say. It is clear that that was his role in their efforts to sabotage the FARC hostage negotiations that were undertaken by Chavez and several other presidents including the president of France. He was told what to do (by the Bushites), and he obeyed, even though it involved extraordinary treachery against other South American presidents and neighbors.
While the S/A political situation makes Bushite success in the Bolivia split-up more urgent, there has been strong opposition to it from other S/A countries, mostly recently Brazil. The OAS refused to participate as election observers in the white separatists' illegal referendum on secession, as did all reputable election groups. The white separatists proceeded with the referendum in spite of this, and in spite of a ruling by Bolivia's high election court that the referendum could not be held. The country's constitutional referendum (what Evo Morales was elected to do--form constitutional assemblies to re-write the constitution) was also suspended. And the latest is that Morales and his supporters readily agreed to an opposition proposal in the national legislature for a country-wide vote of confidence on Morales' government. Morales must feel pretty confident that he will win it.
Currently, I think that the Bushites will settle in for a long war of attrition. They have billions of our money, stolen from the Iraq War, Blackwater mercenaries (active in Colombia), their own "Office of Special Plans" intel and hit groups, operatives within the U.S. military (off the Pacific coast, and at bases in the Caribbean), the heinous rightwing paramilitaries of Colombia, the entire Colombian military itself and all its shiny new bullets and helicopters, and rightwing paramilitaries and USAID-funded rightwing cabals in all these countries that have oil. They also have great financial power to manipulate economies--which we have seen with hoarding-caused foot shortages (Venezuela) and a big ag strike (Argentina). And, finally, they have the corporate news monopolies, which will promulgate whatever bullshit Donald Rumsfeld tells them to.*
What they don't have is the PEOPLE of South America--who have empowered themselves with democratic institutions--and the levers of power in most of the governments of South America, which are now in leftist hands. And they are starting to lose ground in Central America. Nicaragua has gone leftist. Guatemala elected its first progressive government, ever--and it is not happy with Bushite "war on drugs" militarism. And, as Judi Lynn has alerted me, there is a very popular leftist running for president in El Salvador, who is likely to win. In Mexico, the leftist lost by a hair (0.05%) in a probable stolen election, and the left will be back.
This is a bad moment for the Bushites to implement war plans in South America. Colombia's paid agent, Mark Penn, had to be booted to the back room by the failing Clinton campaign because his presence as chief campaign advisor to Clinton gave the lie to Clinton's public stance against the Colombian "free trade" deal. Colombia has one of the worst human rights records on earth. However, Clinton would be a good bet for backing this second war oil war. But the thing is, she's losing.
I don't think Obama will go along with Bush Cartel war plans in South America. More likely he will favor a policy of peace and cooperation. But it won't be clear, until he is in office for a time, how much power the Bush Cartel will have to bully him, and what sort of minefield they have laid out for him, with their eight years in power over all U.S. agencies and the U.S. military. And there is certainly the possibility that they will steal the election from Obama, and put McToady in the White House, in which case Oil War II: South America will likely get the green light and official U.S. involvement.
I do think that some of the Corporate Rulers anyway, having milked war and torture about as far as they can go, as to war profiteering and resource theft, may favor a period of consolidating their enormous gains under the Bush Junta, and letting us work hard to gain back some financial credit for them to steal in the future. This is why they are permitting Obama to win the primary, and may permit him to win in November. War becomes bad for business after a certain point. And we're broke. Let Obama take that hit--Great Depression II; let our military rebuild itself, etc. And let us play at democracy for a while. God I'm getting cynical. But they do still hold the power to directly steal our elections with "trade secret" code in the Bushite-controlled voting machines. I'm saying I don't think they will. Does this mean that they may back off on aggression in South America? Possibly. The Bushites have wrecked the environment there, for U.S. corps. South America's on a new, democratic, progressive path. All the governments of the region (except Colombia) are strongly into Latin American self-determination. It's going to take a lot of dirty tricks and black ops, and various aggravations, to wear democracy down. It is not an easy "kill" like Iraq was.
Also, little things point this way: Exxon-Mobil lost its suit to freeze $12 billion in Venezuela's assets--and the beneficiaries were Chevron, Norways's Statoil, British BP and France's Total. It pays to be nice guys. They agreed to Venezuela's 60/40 split of the profits; Exxon-Mobil did not. A 60/40 split is far better than nothing. The lesson is if the South Americans stand their ground, they can get a better deal--and everyone benefits. Social justice ain't so bad.
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*Notable: In Rumsfeld's Dec '07 Washington Post op-ed, he urges "swift action" by the U.S. in support of "friends and allies" in South America. This can only mean Colombian and the fascist cabals in Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador (and possibly Argentina, which had a big oil find recently, and is a strong ally of the Bolivarians). And "swift action" certainly sounds like military action.
"The Smart Way to Beat Tyrants Like Chávez," by Donald Rumsfeld, 12/1/07http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/30/AR2007113001800.htmlAlso see
Autonomy Proposed in State Legislature of Venezuelan Oil State ZuliaMay 8th 2008
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news/3423U.S. is Promoting Secession in Bolivia, Repeating Venezuela EffortMay 6th 2008, by Nikolas Kozloff - CounterPunch
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/3416 Leaders Warn of Autonomy Attempts in Venezuela, EcuadorMay 7th 2008, by Humberto Marquez - IPS
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/3418