Polls: Clinton's lead down to 4 points in Pennsylvania

[swag]

Source: CNN

(CNN) — Sen. Hilary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama in the crucial primary state of Pennsylvania has dwindled to 4 points, a CNN average of recent polls calculated Thursday shows.

The New York senator now holds a 4 point advantage over her rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, 46 to 42 percent. Twelve percent of likely Democratic voters there remain unsure.

Recent CNN "poll of polls" suggest the race in Pennsylvania is tightening before the state's April 22 primary. A poll of polls calculated two days ago showed Clinton with a 6 point lead in Pennsylvania, and a poll of polls last Friday showed her on top by 11 points.

“Obama is outspending Clinton by better than two to one on television ads in Pennsylvania,” said Alan Silverleib, CNN’s senior political researcher. “Combine that with Clinton’s recent misstatement over her 1996 trip to Bosnia and the escalating chorus of voices calling on her to withdraw from the race, and you get a much tighter contest.”


Read more: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/10/polls-clintons-lead-down-to-4-points-in-pennsylvania/

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Explains the weird and desperate flailing in GD/P

One Hillarian wants to literally make a federal case out of college students at Purdue printing up fliers on the University's dime, in blatant violation of Federal election laws. The Hillarians are really going bonkers now.

[Divernan]

2. And these out of date polling methods miss new voters and people w/cell phones.

My understanding is that "likely voters" are people who were registered as Dems at the last major election and actually voted. That overlooks first-time voters and people who have switched their registration. Voters are polled by telephone calls to their home numbers. I know when I've done phone banking in Western PA, my last 10 calls for example, I got 2 disconnected numbers (older Pennsylvanians died or moved to assisted living since last election?}, 6 answering machines, one teenager whose parents weren't home, and one live voter. Then there are a lot of younger voters who have cell phones instead of landlines.

I'm glad Obama is doing so much TV advertising. His messages are going to be much more powerful than my phone calls anyway.

[TomBall Democrat]

3. New voters and cell phones = Obama Voters nt

[grytpype]

5. heh heh... you're right

[dchill]

4. "polling methods miss new voters ..."

And that is why no one can really predict the outcome of this primary. The polls are all over the place, from Obama behind by 18% to Obama up by 4% - even taking into consideration that 400,000+ newly registered voters aren't polled.

[EFerrari]

6. They don't say what the MOE is. But it sounds like good news. n/t

[Clear Blue Sky]

7. The polls have been unreliable in this election cycle.

[Mojambo]

8. She wins by only four that has to end this race, no? n/t

[swag]

9. Never underestimate the power of denial.

[EnemyOfTheocracy]

10. she has to win by a huge margin (65%)

to even retain the appearence of viability.
she would then have to win indiana by 67%
oregon by 87% and washington by 116%.
she is done and finished.
this TIRED narrative that she can win is BULLSHIT and people need to wake up.
OBAMA IS OUR NOMINEE
a nominee we can be proud of.
if the shoe was on the other foot the media would be flogging obama to get out of the race and posting poll after poll of people that says he should.
not so with hillary her campaign is a GOD DAMNED SOAP OPERA SITCOM!
and the media loves a good sitcom.
hence the failures to state the obvious.....
SHE HAS NO CHANCE IN HELL!
Let's get her our of the race so we can start attacking mcain.
every dollars she spends attacking obama is only helping mcain.
i will do everything in my power to fund the challenger in new york's senate primary to get her removed from office.
we don't need DINOs in the senate or the presidency.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. This is great news, but the media narrative seems to be that

since Obama's outspending her 3:1, that he'll be the big loser if he doesn't win? He has closed a 20 point gap to 4 in a couple of weeks. If he can manage to keep his loss to single digits, it will be a moral triumph.

Some other good news for Obama in NC; I heard on the radio this morning that AA registration is up by four times as in '04. A whopping 44k new black registrants in the 1st quarter. NC is Obama country, which is why Bill & Chelsea are here every other day, but the polls don't seem to be reflecting much change.

[Divine Discontent]

12. this HAS to be the end of her campaign after she barely wins/loses PA

weeks ago we were hearing a strong win by her of of 60-40 in PA gave her at least a margin of argument to continue even though the odds were highly stacked against her (unless she wins 70-30 from here on out), so seeing that she's up by 5 or 6 at the most, and could very well be neck and neck and eke out a victory - well, please tell me she'll be honorable like Senator Edwards was, we'll at least somewhat as honorable as him ,because he got out before Feb 5 (which I didn't like but I guess he realized Obama was pretty much taking most of his thunder and Clinton was firmly entrenched with 40% or more)!

[CANDO]

13. I had two very disturbing encounters last night with fellow Dems I work with

They both expressed outright racist sentiments about Barack Obama and couldn't vote for him because of his race. The one guy went on about all the black people bowing to Obama as if he's some sort of messiah. I'm just really sick about this. I told both persons I lost a lot of respect for them over this. I'm with the Teamsters and drive truck in Pennsylvania. James Hoffa is making rounds in PA to rally support for Obama at Teamster represented workplaces. He visited my terminal in Reading yesterday morning.

[EnemyOfTheocracy]

14. then there is the ominus claim of ...

"if he gets elected he will get shot!"
i have heard this so many times it makes me want to puke.
if we elect a black president and he is assassinated because of his race i want nothing to do with this country any longer i will officially renounce my citizenship.

[CANDO]

15. That is exactly what one of these dudes said!

His point was what did I think would happen if that scenario played out. RIOTS! I said that is definitely a concern, but not a reason to refuse to vote for a person. I also pointed out we white folks have been voting for white dudes for a couple hundred years, it's about time we went the other direction. Especially since BO is highly qualified and inspirational to many, many people. And can we hardly blame the black community for getting excited about a black man in the Presidency? Hell, I'm excited and I'm a 43 year old white guy who has an Obama bumper sticker on my pickup! Bring it on Senator Obama! Hillary and the Clintons in general are sooooooo 1990's. Time for new party leadership. And I have a quite unpleasant taste in my mouth from watching Bill capitulate to Repubs for eight long years, especially on the big one---- NAFTA.

[EnemyOfTheocracy]

17. i know it's fucking silly

you would think that if people in this country were still as ballsy and nuts to take a shot at the president in this post 9/11 world president bush would have bullets whiz past him all day long.

instead hillary clinton is dodging sniper fire in bosnia (snark)

but seriously no one is gonna be able to take a shot at PRESIDENT OBAMA without going through an army of secret service.

[snooper2]

16. Don't tell anybody in GDP

or actually, certain folk ( they got their own polls )

:rofl: