Indonesia accuses US of bird flu plot

[mhatrw]

Source: Sydney Morning Herald

The Indonesian Health Minister has said the United States and the World Health Organisation are part of a global conspiracy to profit from the spread of bird flu and the US may use samples to produce biological weapons.

The views of Dr. Siti Fadilah Supari, outlined in her new book, threaten to undermine efforts to control the spread of avian influenza. With 104 deaths, nearly half the world total, Indonesia is the new hotspot for the virus. Despite claims by the minister that she has agreed to share virus samples and allow all nations access to resulting vaccines, Indonesia is still blocking sharing samples from human victims. Applications to send more than 200 samples from chickens to an Australian laboratory had also been refused, inquiries by the Herald have revealed.

In the book, Dr Supari writes that WHO laboratories forwarded influenza viruses to Western companies so they could profit by selling vaccines back to developing countries: "The system of world health management has been very exploitative. It has been controlled by inhumanly desires, based on the greediness to raise capital and to control the world."

Some Indonesian samples had been sent to a US Defence Department laboratory, Dr Supari says, adding that "some of our seed viruses had been in a laboratory known as a facility developing biological weapons in a superpower country".

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/indonesia-accuses-us-of-bird-flu-plot/2008/02/19/1203190823829.html

---

The avian flu scare makes little sense except as a Big Pharma or political ploy. Note that Bush has used this (as he has used just about everything else) to justify still further expansions of executive power. Meanwhile, Rumsfeld has profited to the tune of millions off of Tamiflu sales.

H5 viruses have been around for hundreds of years and have never caused a single known human epidemic. Unless some military lab has managed to purposefully genetically altered H5N1 to be contagious via human to human transmission, what reason does anyone have to believe that a human pandemic threat from H5N1 is imminent? Why, after hundreds of years, should we believe that these viruses will necessarily suddenly spontaneously mutate in this manner?

[greyl]

1. No, just the idiot Indonesian Health Minister Supari.

An Indonesian fisherman who developed tree-like growths on his hands and feet is at the centre of an international medical spat after his country's health minister criticised doctors trying to treat him.

more: www.care2.com/news/member/444815876/610360

[mhatrw]

3. Why is the Indonesian Health minister an idiot?

Is it because she doesn't recognize US supremacy enough for your tastes? Is it because she wants US doctors to request permission before taking blood and tissue sample from Indonesian patients back to United States to use in any manner they please? Is it because she wants assurances that virus and tissue samples from her country won't be exploited by Big Pharma to make expensive vaccines that countries like Indonesia won't be able to afford? Please explain.

[peacetalksforall]

40. Why? Combination - fear, profit, population control, & dependency

[Mojorabbit]

2. The risk of pandemic is real though it might not be this

particular strain. Some of the best virologists say they have never seen such a nasty virus.

Supari is a crazy woman. Millions have gone missing meant to help them get control of the virus.
They have two cases admitted yesterday one confirmed. They are scrambling to get control but still most people keep chickens as they need to eat and food prices are rising which is causing a problem due to poverty. They are culling in some places and a blind is turned in others.

I have been following this closely for several years and she has come out with some way out there statements over that period of time. They have signed a deal with I think Baxter to manafacture vaccine in case of a pandemic for cash.

[mhatrw]

4. What makes the risk of pandemic real?

How long have H5 viruses been around? Has any H5 virus ever cause a pandemic in humans?

Supari is suspicious of Big Pharma and biological weapons developers. Why aren't you? Why do you think this makes her crazy? Wouldn't you have to be crazy not to have any concerns about Big Pharma and biological weapons developers?

[Mojorabbit]

5. We have had pandemics in the past

viruses mutate. You read about the new canine influenza that recently began infecting greyhounds? That was a mutation from a horse influenza. http://www.veterinarypartner.com/Content.plx?P=A&A=2165
We had a bad pandemic in 1918 and two mild ones after that. This particular virus they are worried about has already mutated into I think 5 clades with multiple subclades.

It is endemic in poultry in multiple countries now. It may never go pandemic or it might.
More info on pandemics is here http://www.pandemicflu.gov/ and for continuing updates on the news
herehttp://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/index.html and
here http://www.newfluwiki2.com/

She makes off the wall comments frequently. It is not her views on big pharma that are crazy. I posted she did a deal with Baxter. She has a point that poor countries get shafted. One of their samples ended up in an australian prototype vaccine. But she is deflecting internal critisim of her handling of the increasing deaths in Indonesia by accusing the west of sabatoge and of developing this virus as a bioweapon. I can look up some of her whoppers tomorrow when I am not half asleep. She has come up with some really off the wall stuff.

[mhatrw]

6. Please, show us the "off the wall" stuff she has come up with.

Yes, there have been human flu pandemics in the past, and there probably will be more in the future.

But you keep avoiding my questions. How long have H5 viruses been around? Have there ever been any H5 epidemics in humans? What makes you think this situation is apt to change anytime soon?

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/22/news/flu.php

Two groups of researchers, in Japan and in the Netherlands, have discovered why the avian flu virus is transmitted rarely if ever from one person to another. The reason is simply that the cells bearing the type of receptor the avian virus is known to favor turn out to be clustered in the deepest branches of the human respiratory tract. Thus, the viruses cannot be spread by coughs and sneezes, as are human flu viruses, which infect cells in the upper respiratory tract. The avian flu virus would need to accumulate many favorable mutations in its genetic material before it could become a pandemic strain, said Yoshihiro Kawaoka, a virologist at the both the University of Tokyo and the University of Wisconsin. ...

The H5 virus has been present in the human population since the late 1950s, but has never acquired the full set of mutations needed to set off a pandemic. The epidemiological evidence "should make us feel safe that there's a substantial barrier," Offit said.

Offit said it was a good thing to worry about the next pandemic, given that about three can be expected every century. "What's not good is to try to sell the public on their fear of pandemic flu being this particular bird flu, since if it's not, crying wolf will lose you credibility," he said.

Peter Palese, a virologist at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, said he did not believe the H5 virus could infect people, except when they were exposed to very large doses, such as by sleeping in the same room as chickens. "I feel strongly that H5 has been around in humans for a long time and never caused a pandemic, suggesting that this is not the virus which is likely to be the next pandemic."

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/312/5772/392

An influenza H5 virus capable of causing a pandemic in humans is likely to differ from the avian H5 viruses that have caused a pandemic in birds and have occasionally caused highly pathogenic infections in humans. A human-adapted H5 virus, by definition, should be able to transmit effectively among humans; it might have antigenic differences compared with avian strains and would possibly be less pathogenic in humans. Adaptation to the human host may occur as a result of either mutation or a combination of mutation and reassortment with an existing human virus. A key event would probably be a change in the binding specificity of the virus from a receptor in the lower respiratory tract to one in the upper respiratory tract. This may result in a decrease in at least the initial pathogenicity, as the infection would be more likely to start with a tracheal bronchitis rather than pneumonia (3, 4). In addition, if human adaptation resulted from reassortment with a human virus, pathogenicity factors on gene segments not in the resulting reassortment would be lost, and there may be a degree of prior immunity in the population to the human virus–derived gene segments, both further reducing pathogenicity in humans.

The large possible range for pathogenicity is also evident in the differences in mortality during the three influenza pandemics of the past century: The 1918 pandemic killed an estimated 40 to 50 million people, the 1957 pandemic killed an estimated 2 million people, and the 1968 pandemic an killed an estimated 1 million people.

[Mojorabbit]

9. I am not avoiding your question

I posted above an example of a horse virus mutating to infect dogs for the first time. I don't know how much of a background in virology you have. You get a pandemic when there is a novel virus you have no immunity to that can pass easily from human to human. The fact that h5 has not caused a pandemic in the past means nothing.

your post above quoted this
"Adaptation to the human host may occur as a result of either mutation or a combination of mutation and reassortment with an existing human virus. A key event would probably be a change in the binding specificity of the virus from a receptor in the lower respiratory tract to one in the upper respiratory tract"
This is one of the mutations they are afraid may happen.

This virus has already jumped species including cats, dogs, pigs, humans(including some human to human cases),and has been found in flies and yesterday a report that it was found in mosquitos who fed on the blood of infected poultry. When was the last time you heard of a flu virus doing this?

The entire world is making plans for a possible pandemic. It may not be this particular virus. That remains to be seen but with it's breathtaking spread and it's entrenchment in many country's poultry it may have a good chance. Scientists just don't know enough yet what it takes to make a virus go pandemic.

As for Supari

from a recent article
Despite claims by Dr Supari — described on the book's cover as the "divine hand behind avian influenza" — that she has forged a new agreement to share virus samples and allow all nations access to resulting vaccines, Indonesia still blocks the sharing of samples from human victims
snip
Privately, foreign experts and officials say Dr Supari's belief that she is engaged on a God-driven crusade against an evil and "neo-colonialist" world health system have caused her to lose touch with reality.

(the book was pulled from the market by the Indo govt)mojo

In it, Dr Supari says Indonesia's bird flu victims did not die in vain: "They all died as martyrs of humanity for the betterment of the world health management."
snip
She also alleges WHO's virus-sharing system exploits the blood, cells and antibodies of the powerless. "And perhaps it would be more dangerous when in the end they would take our brain cell(s) as well, to be re-engineered and create a new generation of slaves."
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/02/19/1203190820723.html
__________________________

[mhatrw]

10. I didn't think you were.

"Adaptation to the human host may occur as a result of either mutation or a combination of mutation and reassortment with an existing human virus. A key event would probably be a change in the binding specificity of the virus from a receptor in the lower respiratory tract to one in the upper respiratory tract."

You forgot the rest of the quote where he said that such a mutation would probably significantly lower the virulence of the virus to humans.

This virus has already jumped species including cats, dogs, pigs, humans(including some human to human cases),and has been found in flies and yesterday a report that it was found in mosquitos who fed on the blood of infected poultry. When was the last time you heard of a flu virus doing this?

Constantly. It's not strange that a widespread H5 strain would jumps species in terms of infection. What is strange is that a H5 strain would suddenly become contagious via human to human contact. As far as we know, this has never happened over hundreds of years.

The entire world is making plans for a possible pandemic. It may not be this particular virus. That remains to be seen but with it's breathtaking spread and it's entrenchment in many country's poultry it may have a good chance. Scientists just don't know enough yet what it takes to make a virus go pandemic.

So in the meantime, let's keep telling everyone that they will die from bird flu tomorrow to get them all to stockpile lame, unproven antivirals like Rummy's Tamiflu. Right?

Despite claims by Dr Supari — described on the book's cover as the "divine hand behind avian influenza" — that she has forged a new agreement to share virus samples and allow all nations access to resulting vaccines, Indonesia still blocks the sharing of samples from human victims

Yes, and for good reason. See: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45786

Looking out for the interests of your own country doesn't make you crazy.

Privately, foreign experts and officials say Dr Supari's belief that she is engaged on a God-driven crusade against an evil and "neo-colonialist" world health system have caused her to lose touch with reality.

That's nothing more than a Big Pharma driven smear against her. Didn't you tell us that she herself had said crazy things?

(the book was pulled from the market by the Indo govt)mojo

Do you have a cite for this claim?

In it, Dr Supari says Indonesia's bird flu victims did not die in vain: "They all died as martyrs of humanity for the betterment of the world health management."

How is that any crazier than what every US President has said about every US war? How is that any crazier than what we all say every Memorial Day?

She also alleges WHO's virus-sharing system exploits the blood, cells and antibodies of the powerless. "And perhaps it would be more dangerous when in the end they would take our brain cell(s) as well, to be re-engineered and create a new generation of slaves."

She is making a point about the way the WHO and the whole "world health system" works. Big Pharma comes into poor countries, takes whatever tissue and virus samples it wants and then uses them however it wants, typically to make big profits selling drugs and vaccines that poor countries can't afford -- all without ever compensating poor countries in any way. As I said before, being suspicious of Big Pharma and military bioweapons programs doesn't make one crazy. In fact, one would be crazy not to be suspicious of Big Pharma and military bioweapons programs.

[Mojorabbit]

11. Please

cite me a flu virus that has jumped to so many species, spread to so many countries, and has also caused human illness as well as human to human spread. I don't think you can.

The jury is out that the virulence will decrease. They think that will happen but have no guarantees. You can google it and find virologists saying this. I did not forget your quote that it might decrease in virulence.
The 1918 pandemic had a 2 percent case fatality rate. This one so far is I think 70 percent. It would have to drop a looong way to even hit anywhere near what the last big one did. Even at 2 percent that is a huge death rate.

It is looking like seasonal flu is becoming more and more resistant to tamiflu and several asian strains and I think one vietnamese strain also have some resistant markers so if we do happen to have a pandemic we may be in bad shape. Several reports last week about it. Still, those in asia who have gotten timely doses of it have had a better chance of survival than those who did not.

I am sorry, but the top health official of a country saying that other countries are going to take brain cells to be re engineered to create a new generation of slaves is out there. The fact that she has mismanaged the avian flu problem in her country and millions of dollars have gone missing is what the people who died are martyred for.

Your cite for the book being pulled for now is in the article I cited in my last post.
As I said, I have been closely following this for years. The foremost virologists in the world are worried about this particular strain. It may or may not go pandemic. Time will tell.

[mhatrw]

13. Only because this virus is so widespread in birds in certain communities,

birds are so closely grouped with humans in these communities, and we are tracking the bejesus out of H5N1 like we have never tracked a non-human-to-human contagious flu virus before.

The jury is out that the virulence will decrease. They think that will happen but have no guarantees. You can google it and find virologists saying this. I did not forget your quote that it might decrease in virulence.

The jury is out about if H5 can ever even mutate to become contagious via casual human to human transmission. Almost every time the infection has spread among humans, it has been among a single family group, indicating a genetic weakness to the virus.

The 1918 pandemic had a 2 percent case fatality rate. This one so far is I think 70 percent. It would have to drop a looong way to even hit anywhere near what the last big one did. Even at 2 percent that is a huge death rate.

The 1918 pandemic was the worst flu pandemic in the last 150 years at least. The odds that any single specific existing virus will mutate to be as contagious and virulent among humans as the worst case flu epidemic in the last 150 years are staggeringly low.

It is looking like seasonal flu is becoming more and more resistant to tamiflu and several asian strains and I think one vietnamese strain also have some resistant markers so if we do happen to have a pandemic we may be in bad shape. Several reports last week about it. Still, those in asia who have gotten timely doses of it have had a better chance of survival than those who did not.

Tamiflu sucks and has always sucked when you model its cost versus its proven benefit.

I am sorry, but the top health official of a country saying that other countries are going to take brain cells to be re engineered to create a new generation of slaves is out there. The fact that she has mismanaged the avian flu problem in her country and millions of dollars have gone missing is what the people who died are martyred for.

Weird that you never provided any evidence for the charges that she has personally mismanaged finances. Yes, what she said about brain cells was "out there", but it was nothing more than the typical "us vs. them" hyperbole of a typical political leader looking out for the interests of her country against international pressure.

The foremost virologists in the world are worried about this particular strain. It may or may not go pandemic. Time will tell.

The foremost virologists in the world have a vested interest in hyping the threat of any flu pandemic so they and their brethren can receive needed funds for general flu research. As such, they have no incentive whatsoever to belittle the specific pandemic threat of H5N1.

[Mojorabbit]

14. This is my last post

I am to ill today to look up more info readily available on the net.

This virus has mutated to jump a boatload of species including humans,tigers, cats, humans, pigs, leopards, ferrets, stone martins to name a few. In my lifetime this has not happened before.

Dr Webster of st Jude had this to say several years ago.
"This is the worst flu virus I have ever seen or worked with or read about. We have to prepare as if we were going to war—and the public needs to understand that clearly. This virus is playing its role as a natural bioterrorist. The politicians are going to say Chicken Little is at it again. And, if I’m wrong, then thank God. But if it does happen, and I fully expect that it will, there will be no place for any of us to hide. Not in the United States or in Europe or in a bunker somewhere. The virus is a very promiscuous and efficient killer."


You have no way of knowing if the odds that the virus if it mutates to pandemic will be staggering low in virulence. The virologists are not sure themselves so I will take that statement at face value.

I am sure all those esteemed virologists the world over are just blowing this up for a little grant money. Just like the climate change scientists are perpetuating a hoax for their own gain. What a ridiculous claim. And you know that it is a ridiculous claim.
Thanks for the debate.

[mhatrw]

19. From Dr. Webster's own webpage

http://www.stjude.org/stjude/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=839e10e88ce70110VgnVCM1000001e0215acRCRD&vgnextchannel=0dd413c016118010VgnVCM1000000e2015acRCRD

Research Interests

Dr. Webster’s interests include the structure and function of influenza virus proteins and the development of new vaccines and antivirals; the importance of influenza viruses in wild birds as a major reservoir of influenza viruses and their role in the evolution of new pandemic strains for humans and lower animals.

My argument is not that Webster is after grant money. However, he knows that influenza research is chronically underfunded in general and bird flu pandemics are his baby. So why in the world would he minimize the threat of bird flu? I mean, scientists are human, too.

H5 viruses have never mutated to become contagious from casual human to human contact in their history. Until someone explains to me why we should expect the current H5N1 virus afflicting millions of bird to do so, I'll continue to defer to the large number of virologists with the guts and integrity to say the emperor has no clothes.

[Mojorabbit]

21. Hi, I am up cause a helicopter

is hovering over my house and woke me.
Here is websters bio.
Robert G. Webster holds the Rose Marie Thomas Chair in Virology at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. He is also director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on the Ecology of Influenza Viruses in Lower Animals and Birds, the world's only laboratory designed to study influenza at the animal-human interface. He is a fellow of the Royal Society of London, the Royal Society of Medicine and the Royal Society of New Zealand, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. In December 2002, he was presented with the Bristol-Myers Squibb Award for Distinguished Achievement in Infectious Diseases Research. <3>

Webster has been awarded membership of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, and the honour of fellow of both the Royal Societies of New Zealand and London. Other memberships he enjoys are of the American Society for Microbiology, American Society for Virology and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, as well as being a fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine. He also heads the World Health Organisation (WHO) collaborating laboratory on animal influenza.

and
Any one of Webster's accomplishments would satisfy someone less ambitious. As a graduate student, he discovered the Coomassie blue stain for quantitating proteins. Along with Stephen Fazekas, his graduate advisor, he established the theory of 'original antigenic sin'. He was a member of the team that discovered that detergents such as sodium dodecyl sulfate disrupt the flu virus, a finding that led to the first commercial flu 'subunit' vaccine.

Here is a wikipedia link that kind of simplifies H5N1 and it answers some of the questions you had earlier that I could not answer to your satisfaction.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1
It talks a bit in there also about why the Case Fatality rate might not fall.

And most of the virologists in the world are worried about this. There is no large number who don't think it might not be a problem.

Hope you have a wonderful day! Damn but that helicopter is annoying.:hi:

[mhatrw]

26. OK, I read the entire Wikipedia article.

I still don't see an answer as to why we should expect any H5 virus to become highly contagious via human to human transmission.

Yes, it could happen. Or a huge meteor could hit Earth first. Or a supervolcano could erupt. Yes, we should prepare for all these scenarios because the results of any of them would be catastrophic. But a scientific argument for the likelihood of H5N1 mutating to cause a human pandemic while retaining its virulence is nonexistent. It's nothing more than a bunch of virologists saying, "I'm worried because it's possible."

[Mojorabbit]

27. Exactly! It has happened before.

A novel virus has in the past mutated and caused a bad pandemic ie the 1918 one, it was an avian virus that had not ever infected humans, jumped species with enough of a mutation to infect us, and we had no immunity.

They do not know if it will or will not maintain it's virulance if it does. This is a very unique virus and is spreading like wildfire in birds and becoming entrenched in some locations. It is constantly mutating and has affected humans.

Will it pick the lock to become more easily transmisable? The more entrenched it becomes in so many countries the more opportunities it has to do so. Will it happen? They are worried. They don't know. Stay tuned!

If it does we are in big time trouble. It is good they are planning for the possibility even though to date the plans are pretty feeble.

There was a recent scare when a Pakistani from new york flew home to attend his two brother's funerals. One of the dead brothers gave his sibling the avian flu and both died. After the funeral he then flew home and saw his family physician in New York who notified the cdc while probably peeing his pants.

It would be that easy if someone had a strain that was easily passed to others. It would probably be here in hours with the plane traffic.
If it does happen it will be everywhere at once and Katrina will look like a walk in the park. I am hoping it doesn't but at the same time am watching it with fascination. But as I said downthread, I am an emerging infectious disease geek and I have never seen any virus like this one.

[mhatrw]

32. Nor have you seen any virus that they've spent more money tracking than this one.

The next human influenza pandemic could come from anywhere.

[Mojorabbit]

33. It could but none of the others are doing this.

More H5N1 cases reported in Vietnam, China
Feb 21, 2008 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported a new fatal H5N1 avian influenza case in Vietnam and confirmed three cases reported earlier in Indonesia and China, while Chinese authorities today reported still another fatal case.

The latest case confirmations by the WHO raise the agency's overall H5N1 count to 365 cases and 231 deaths, including 16 cases and 14 deaths so far this year. Twelve of those cases, including 10 fatal ones, were in Indonesia.

The new case in Vietnam involved a 27-year-old man in the northern province of Ninh Binh who fell ill Feb 3 and died Feb 14, the WHO said. He had had contact with sick and dead poultry before his illness.

Including his case, Vietnam has had 104 cases, 50 of them fatal, the WHO reported. This year the country has had three cases, all fatal.

The WHO has not yet confirmed the case in a 7-year-old child from Hai Duong province that was reported by Vietnamese authorities Feb 16.

China's newest H5N1 case is that of a 41-year-old man from southern China's Guangxi autonomous region, according to a Reuters report quoting the health ministry today. The man became ill Feb 12, was hospitalized 2 days later, and died yesterday, the story said. His is the country's second case this year.

The man had had contact with sick poultry. Officials have checked his contacts and found no illness so far, Reuters reported. The WHO has not yet registered the case.

Yesterday, however, the WHO did confirm China's first reported H5N1 case of this year, that of a 22-year-old man from Jianghua County in Hunan province. He fell ill Jan 16, was hospitalized Jan 23, and died Jan 24, the WHO said. His case was reported by Chinese authorities Feb 18.

An investigation into the source of his infection is continuing, the WHO said.

Today the WHO confirmed two fatal Indonesian cases that were reported earlier, one in a 16-year-old boy from Central Java province and the other in a 3-year-old boy from South Jakarta.

The 16-year-old got sick Feb 3, was hospitalized 4 days later, and died Feb 10, the WHO said. He had slaughtered a sick chicken at his home before his illness.

The 3-year-old boy died Feb 15 after a 12-day illness, including 5 days in a hospital, the WHO reported. Investigators found that chickens and a pet bird in the neighborhood had died in the 2 weeks before he got sick.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu//cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/feb2108cases-jw.html

and I am holding my breath on this one in India.
SHILLONG: A girl suspected to be suffering from bird flu was admitted at Shillong Civil Hospital on Thursday sending Meghalaya health department into a tizzy.

State Director of Health Services Dr K H Lakiang said the 21-year-old girl, Anjalina Paslain was admitted with fever and rashes and had been kept in the isolation ward.

The girl, who hails from Sipung in the Jaintia Hills district was first admitted at the local health center, after which she was taken to a private hospital in Shillong, which during the day referred her to the government civil hospital.

Dr Lakiang said: "The blood and stool samples have been collected and will be sent for tests for bird flu virus to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in Delhi on Friday," he said.

"Nothing can be said as of now," he said, while not ruling out the possibility of bird flu.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/Suspected_bird-flu_case_in_Meghalaya/rssarticleshow/2802452.cms

[Mojorabbit]

38. Another possible case

Suspected case of bird flu in China
Last Updated 25/02/2008, 12:51:57 Select text size:
A woman is in a serious condition in southern China with suspected bird flu.

The Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection says the 44-year-old woman in Guangdong Province developed symptoms on February 16 consistent with the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus.

It says the case has yet to be confirmed by the health ministry.

A 41-year-old man died of bird flu in the Guangxi autonomous region in southern China on February 20.

A 22-year-old man in the central Hunan Province died of the disease on January 24.

At least 19 people have died of bird flu in China, while ten others have recovered.
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stories/s2171413.htm

and it is getting worse re poultry in Bangladesh
Bird flu spreads alarmingly as more fowls culled in Bangladesh

Bird flu spreads alarmingly as more fowls culled in Bangladesh
DHAKA, Feb. 24 (Xinhua) -- Bangladesh's health workers culled more than 58,000 fowls across the country in the past 24 hours as bird flu ravaged the country's poultry industry, officials said Sunday.

The new culling was conducted in districts of Jamalpur, Rajshahi, Gazipur, Bogra, Tjhakurgaon, Feni and Chandpur.

An official at the bird flu control room told Xinhua that with the fresh culling of chickens, ducks, pigeons and pet birds, the total number of culled birds shot up to 968,731 since the avian influenza broke out in March last year.

A similar number of eggs were destroyed at 315 farms in 92 sub-districts under 45 districts, the official said.

Bangladesh Poultry Industries Association (BPIA) has said the deadly virus has led to the closure of more than 50 percent of the farms and turned nearly five million people jobless.
more at link
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/25/content_7662500.htm

[TZ]

35. My company is currently working on and manufacturing vaccine

and stockpiling it for use in case of a pandemic. No profit involved in stockpiling at this point.

[Mojorabbit]

36. That is great to hear.

I know there is a big debate on what the allocation of the available vaccines will be going on in the govt at this time from what I have read this week.

[tecelote]

7. 104 Deaths in Indonesia.

Since the population of Indonesia is about 80% of the U.S. it is not exactly an epidemic. It is about the same number of people that died from car accidents here - yesterday. I'll bet there are more chickens per family in Indonesia than there are cars per family in the U.S.

Death rate extrapolations for USA for Automobile accidents injury: 42,443 per year, 3,536 per month, 816 per week, 116 per day, 4 per hour.

This is a get super rich scheme supported by our government and the media.

One more example of our country's current priorities.

Time for a change!!

[The Croquist]

8. I don't think the "Bird Flu" is much to worry about either.

I'm still waiting for SARS, West Nile Virus, Hantavirus, Legionaries disease and countless others to wipe us out. The regular flu kills about 36,000 Americans a year but I don't see a panic over it. The same goes for smoking, obesity, automobile accidents (alcohol and other) and many others. Could the bird flu kill millions? Yes. Is it likely? I don't think so. Tobacco kills over 400,000 a year. Being couch potatoes kills almost as many.

[lovuian]

12. lets face it our Pharmaceutical companies have a BAD

REPUTATION

of For Profit motivation

and US has Biological Weapons

[Fly by night]

15. Total bird flu deaths EVER equals 1/10 of annual deaths due to being struck by lightning

And that's if the "bird flu" diagnoses were accurate, which many epidemiologists question.

Lightning vaccine, anyone?

As an epidemiologist, I have always thought bird flu was just another opportunity to distract the sheeple from the real merchants of death -- the Smirking Chimp and his flying monkey minions. I am sure it was no accident that the bird flu was part of the corporate media fear-mongering featured in
"V for Vendetta".

Of course, I never wear my tinfoil hat in a thunderstorm.

[Mojorabbit]

16. As a nurse

I can't believe I got a better education on biology than you did then. No one is freaking about the virus as it exists now which is a local public health problem in the areas affected, they are worried about if it mutates enough to go pandemic. Being US centric on the topic shows me you have not read much in the foreign scientific journals as well as ours to have a working knowledge of the problem. It may or may not happen but to dismiss it as a distraction is pretty lame if you have any scientific background at all. This is really my last post. Nite.

[Fly by night]

17. You could make the same argument about any virus ...

What if the HIV virus mutated to be airborne?

What if the HIV virus mutated to produce as rapid an onset of death as Ebola?

What if the HIV virus mutated to ... (fill in the blank)?

Well, it hasn't. And neither has the bird flu.

My reading of the international literature on bird flu suggests that a large proportion of the fatalities have occurred among poultry farmers and their family members who were exposed to massive quantities of virus through the slaughter and preparation for market of the carcasses of their birds. Relatively few cases have been reported outside of this circumstance.

I have spent 30+ years watching my profession used repeatedly as a weapon of mass distraction to create fear where it is not warranted. In the HIV arena, we are still positing the same number of active infections now in this country as we estimated were present 20 years ago. But back then, our "experts" were predicting an asymptotic rise in HIV incidence. (Not all of them. I caught grief when I published a paper that concluded that the apparent rapid increase in AIDS cases in the US had more to do with the constantly expanding definition of what constituted an AIDS diagnosis than anything else. Turns out I was right then. Just as I suspect I am right now.)

Believe me, there are many health risks we should be concerned about. What if the rest of the world's body politic mutated to be as arrogant, blood-thirsty and rapacious as our own country's current leaders (sic)?

Now THAT would be scary.

[mhatrw]

20. Great post.

Kudos.

[Mojorabbit]

22. Good morning

You could make that argument except we are talking about an influenza virus with the infectivity that that entails, ie being naturally highly contagious plus the constant mutations that are a hallmark of influenza viruses.

Most cases are poultry related but a good many are not. There is also contamination in the environment as well. It can live for decades in frozen water and a good while in water in lakes. There was a case in vietnam where it was postulated the woman got it from using fertilizer for her potted plants from not well enough composted chicken manure. If you read translations of the Indonesian papers they go through great lengths to find a poultry connection in many of the cases, ie a neighbor two blocks away had a pet bird. Still the main method so far of infection is contact with infected poultry.

It has been recently found in flies and mosquitoes that fed on infected poultry which is fascinating.
Here is an article from promed (the infectious disease newsletter) on the mosquitoes.
http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f?p=2400:1001:535768708006158::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1010,71439

They also throw a tamiflu blanket over whole neighborhoods when a case is diagnosed. Also factor in the mutations so far of so many clades and subclades. My opinion is that comparing HIV aids to influenza is apples and oranges. I really do think this is a virus to watch. It may amount to nothing but it is the most fascinating influenza strain I have ever followed. I have never seen anything like it.

I remember when HIV first presented itself when I was a young nurse. It was heartbreaking. I could tell you some stories. Sigh.

I am an emerging infectious disease geek and find it all very fascinating. Please excuse my snarkiness yesterday. I was ill and irritable and did not mean to take it out on you.
Hope you have a wonderful day. :)

[Fly by night]

24. Appreciate your posts on this thread. What are you doing to attract helicopters this morning?

Whatever it is, you must be doing something right. Keep it up.

BTW, whenever I speak to a lay audience, I define "epidemiologist" as "truth teller". That is our responsibility. As some have indicated above, hyping the bird flu is helping increase funds for basic infectious disease research, which is good. In a similar vein, the nationwide blind studies of HIV infections among newborns (which I helped administer in the late 1980s) had the effect of improving the newborn PKU testing process in all states -- which, again, was a good thing. The downside of the AIDS hysteria -- starting with increased discrimination against high-risk populations and ending with assaults and murders of members of those high-risk groups -- was not so good.

Again, thanks for your posts. This has been a useful thread here on DU -- much more useful than the "quote-Gate" effluvia on the Greatest page.

[Mojorabbit]

31. What wonderful

work you have done. Those are accomplishments to be proud of. There were some really dark days with HIV aids in the beginning. Thank you for forgiving me for my snarkiness.

[Fly by night]

23. Actually, total bird flu deaths to date = 1/100th of annual lightning deaths

Obviously wasn't checking my math before I posted yesterday.

If we were really concerned about infectious disease in this country and elsewhere, we would not have politicized CDC and every other federal health agency during the Bush Dark Ages.

It will take us years to clean out THAT infection from our government agencies. Hopefully we can apply universal precautions thereafter to prevent the continuation of Smirking Chimp disease within our government after Bush is banished back beyond the Red River.

[Megahurtz]

18. Wouldn't surpise me at all. n/t

[superconnected]

28. Wouldn't suprise me either.

[happyslug]

25. No comments about HOW bird flu may NOT be spread by Wild Birds?

The present consensus on Bird flu is that it is spread by Wild Birds migrating. Then both Wild birds and domestic birds transmitted to people. The problem is when plotted on a map, the spread of the disease do NOT follow know flight patterns, they do follow trade routes, especially from one area growing domestic birds to other areas where domestic birds are kept COMMERCIALLY (i.e. Factory farms in the Third World). Thus he alternative theory is bird flu is being spread by MAN, as corporations move birds from one country to another to make or expand existing commercial bird farms.

I did a quick Goggle search and found the following cite on this issue (i.e. commercial transportation is the cause of the Spread of Bird Flu NOT Wild Birds). These tend to be fringe sites, I can NOT find the site I read last year that show the pattern of spread:

http://www.grain.org/articles/?id=35

http://www.cfbf.com/agalert/AgAlertStory.cfm?ID=458&ck=D07E70EFCFAB08731A97E7B91BE644DE

http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2007/02/09/latest_bird_flu_blamed_on_bird_trading/

http://www.redorbit.com/news/health/835382/latest_bird_flu_blamed_on_bird_trading/index.html

The main reason for the lack of information is that the Commercial Farms are saying they are capable of "Containing" the disease, while small farmers can not. Given that the Commercial Farms have connections to their Governments, while most small farmers do NOT, is why small farmers have been told to kill their chickens to prevent Bird Flu from being Spread, but Commercial Farms have NOT been told to kill ALL of their Chickens. Please note, most of the Cases have been in Third World Countries NOT the Western World, AND within 1-2 miles of Commercial Farms (The further you are from a Commercial Farm the less likely your Chickens will be affected).

[Mojorabbit]

29. The poultry trade is a big problem

and there is a fight between two factions, one blaming wild birds and the other poultry trading.
I think it is a combo of both.This caused a problem in Russia where they took to killing wild birds of all kinds in panic. Just think what that might do to some endangered species when killed in their mating grounds or migratory stops if others followed that example.

They just culled a gazillion birds in West Bengal India. Same as in bangledesh and these are backyard type birds. These people cannot afford to not have this cheap access to protein from eggs and chicken at this level of poverty. There is also the problem of counterfit vaccines for chickens.
I think I read that around 40 billion chickens have been culled.

An example of the poultry trade is in the Domican Republic. They have a pretty benign strain of avian flu that is not a danger to people. Fighting cocks seem to have been the vector as they are breed and sold. Haiti banned chickens and eggs from the DR. People in Haiti are eating mud pies right now. Big fight over the ban between he two countries.

[superconnected]

30. Thanks for posting this information!

[TZ]

34. Hey Dr Bullshit is back

Still scientifically illiterate.
I am familiar with the companies working on H5N1 vaccines and I can assure you, Rumsfeld is NOT an investor.
By the way there is living proof THIS YEAR about the mutability of influenza. The vaccine this year is not as effective because of an unexpected mutation in the virus.
Bird flu is highly lethal. You also ought to read about the 1912 pandemic to understand how deadly influenza is.
As for usuing as a biological weapon..BULLSHIT. There are much more lethal things the US could use if they were so inclined.
Sounds like you and this indonesian have something in common. Extreme paranoia and scientific illiteracy.
Always a dangerous combination.
Thanks for my daily dose of woo. I've been missing it.

[ileus]

37. another Tin Foil hat ID10T

[Mojorabbit]

39. A bit of a twist

Did we/WHO make a deal to get a hold of samples of the virus so we can see what kind of strain is there and what mutations have transpired? Or is it a coincidence.


Our newpapers....

Gates seeks closer ties with Indonesia By LOLITA C. BALDOR, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 56 minutes ago


JAKARTA, Indonesia - Defense Secretary Robert Gates vowed Monday to help Indonesia reform its military, saying the U.S. was ready to help provide airlift and other maritime capabilities the country needs.


And in what appeared to be a response to previous Indonesian criticism that the United States can be overbearing in its foreign and military policies, Gates said the U.S. can play a supportive role as countries like Indonesia map out their own futures.

"From time to time, we have strayed from our ideals and we have been arrogant in dealing with others," Gates said in a speech to the Indonesian Council on World Affairs. "In the end, we have always realized that our own democracy's strength ultimately depends on the strength and independence of other democracies around the world — including new ones such as Indonesia."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080225/ap_on_re_as/gates

Their newspapers

translation
The US minister of defense the Offer Handle F16 Related the Book Menkes on Monday, February 25 2008 - 16:28 wib
Siswanto - Okezone
http://news.okezone.com/index....

Jakarta - United States Defense Minister Robert Gates denied bargaining 6 aircraft F16 related the pulling of Health Minister's book had the theme "Saatnya Dunia Berubah!"

The hands of the Lord behind the Flu Burung Virus.
"Untrue US State offered the weapon so that the book is pulled from the circulation," explained Robert in his press conference after meeting President SBY in President's Office, Jakarta, on Monday (25/2/2008).
He said, himself appreciated the book of Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari about WHO and the AS. Tapi Government "I was not of the same opinion as the" Minister"," he explained.

Moreover, he also denied it discussed concerning the book menkes to President SBY. SAYA "and the president did not discuss that," he explained.
While the Minister Of Defence Juwono Sudarsono also took part in denying the connection between between the book menkes and aircraft bargaining F16 from America.
"This did not have his connection."
The matter of the book the WHO affair, PBB. Saya not want to respond to, pungkas him.
(uky)
http://news.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/02/25/1/86577/menhan-as-sangkal-tawaran-f16-terkait-buku-menkes