(CBS) Poll: Top Democrats Deadlocked In Iowa

[sabra]

Source: CBS News

(CBS) Democrats and Republicans are both headed toward heated showdowns in Iowa, where, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll, Hillary Clinton holds a statistically insignificant lead over John Edwards and Barack Obama, and GOP hopeful Mitt Romney finds his long-held position as the state's front-runner challenged by a surging Mike Huckabee.

The situation in Iowa, where nominating caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 3, is in stark contrast to New Hampshire, where Clinton and Romney continue to hold large leads among those likely to vote in the state's first-in-the-nation primary, which could come only days after Iowa's contests.

But in both states, large chunks of voters have yet to make up their minds, meaning the results of the contests that will kick off the 2008 nominating season are still difficult to predict.

In Iowa, the Democratic contest is knotted up. Among likely caucus-goers, Clinton came out on top with 25 percent support, but she was trailed closely by Edwards at 23 percent, and Obama at 22 percent. With a margin of error of 4 percentage points, there is no clear leader. Trailing behind was Bill Richardson, at 12 percent, with all other candidates in single digits.

Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/13/opinion/polls/main3497993.shtml

[onehandle]

1. The real fun run. nt

[suston96]

2. Statistically insignificant lead?

What is becoming "insignificant" is Iowa's importance in its lead as the nation's first polling of presidential candidates. Same for New Hampshire.

Many states will hold primaries around the same time as Iowa and New Hampshire, and it is conceivable that most primaries will be over in January.

Edited to add this:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/index.html

And remember, there is still some confusion and squabbling in both parties over states moving up their primaries.

[CoffeeCat]

3. Wow, that's interesting...

I have remained undecided, because I was hoping for Gore.

I'm tilting toward Edwards now, but I'm still deciding.

I live in Iowa and I have to say---I hardly hear a peep out of Edwards--and believe me,
I'm paying attention. I've seen Obama and Hillary ads, but hardly anything from Edwards.

I did receive some mailed political info from the Edwards campaign.

If Edwards is surging like this in Iowa--with very little ads and press--I think this
says quite a bit about him. I get the feeling that this might be his year.

Hillary and Obama get a great deal of press from their appearances. Edwards seems
to receive less press--unless of course, he hasn't been in Iowa as much as the other
candidates. However, I doubt that.

It's pretty impressive that Edwards is gaining so much ground, with minimal publicity.

When I attended the Iowa caucuses in 04---Edwards had a very strong showing and his
supporters were very passionate and vocal. They were able to woo other candidates'
supporters over to their side easily.

This should be an interesting caucus.

[bigworld]

4. I know Hillary's spending left and right in Iowa...

are people overwhelmed with the ads? Irritated by them?

I'm thinking Edwards is afraid of peaking too early (see: Howard Dean) and holding off on the big ad buys.

[CoffeeCat]

9. I don't see too many television ads...

What I do notice is the press coverage.

Hillary and Obama get most of it. Edwards gets very little.

In Iowa though, it's really about how many personal connections you make. If
candidates are willing to really sit down and listen to people--and participate
in small-group discussions--you're golden. Giving big speeches is necessary,
but Iowans expect to meet with and dialog with candidates.

Whoever is doing that, will benefit. Hillary and Obama seem to do larger
events that attract press. Maybe Edwards lack of press is due to smaller
community meetings at which he speaks?

The caucuses aren't people voting at a booth. As I've mentioned before, we stand
in small groups in libraries and community centers and we debate. We try to
convince other candidates' supporters to come over to our candidate. If people
have met the candidates face to face and feel passionate about them--they will
lobby more effectively and convince others to defect to their camp.

I'd be interested in knowing what Edwards is doing. If he's doing these small,
community meetings--that could be why he's tied with Obama and Hillary. He's
gaining ground behind the scenes, it appears.

Interesting.

[balantz]

5. John Edwards has visited

all 99 counties in Iowa. He has been working very hard in the communities, though the media doesn't tell.

[Rambis]

6. Agree

Edwards is spending the time and no amount of money is going to buy Hillary the caucus here. There are more Hillary signs popping up but that is the money she has not the level of support at the grass roots level in Iowa. I predict Edwards will win Iowa for the 100th time!

[Texifornia]

13. He's already won it 99 times?

Dang! He looks goooood for his age!

Sorry, I just couldn't resist.

[CoffeeCat]

10. Wow...that's why Edwards is surging in Iowa.

The more I learn about Edwards, the more I want to support him
in the Iowa caucuses.

If he is visiting all counties and meeting with small groups--that
most likely explain why he is tied with Hillary and Obama. Despite
fewer television ads and less press--he's tied.

That truly is amazing.

He's meeting with the people. He's talking with them. He's listening.
As a result, he is really gaining ground.

It's so refreshing to see a candidate actually taking the time to walk
among the people and "get real." On "This Week" they showed footage of
Edwards talking with a group of 8-10 people and they were sitting around
a kitchen table.

He's genuine and he's honest---and this kind of campaigning really solidifies
the notion that Edwards is sincere and willing to discuss his ideas honestly
and listen to others.

I'm gaining more respect for Edwards--and more hope for the country. I think
he's our guy.

[On the Road]

12. I Suspect Edwards in Conserving His Resources For a Late Media Blitz

[Doctor_J]

7. I kind of hope Edwards pulls it out

As momentous as it would be to elect the first black or woman next year, I think JRE has the politics that the county needs right now, and the personality to get people (at least the 80% or so that don't worship hate radio) to all pull their oars. Maybe he could put Barrack in the side car for the GE, to get a piece of history

[redqueen]

8. I'd like to see Edwards take Iowa.

But I'd rather Kucinich did. :7

[David Zephyr]

11. It appears that John Edwards is getting his second wind back in Iowa...and at the right time.

John Edwards may just surprise everyone with a win in Iowa.

[hedgehog]

14. I wonder if this will be a repeat of New Hampshire 1968

A lot of people don't realize it, but LBJ won in New Hampshire. The fact that Gene McCarthy made a decent showing against a sitting President is what changed everyone's expectations. Many assume Senator Clinton will be the nominee because it is expected she will be the nominee. It's almost a Zen thing. If she doesn't win Iowa big time, what happens to those assumptions?

[surfermaw]

15. Edwards will win Iowa

I think South Carolina, Edwards has been in S.C 12 times, Obama 11 and Hillary just a very ffew