White House:Duration Of Troop Deployment In Iraq Unknown

[Tinoire]

White House: Duration Of Troop Deployment In Iraq Unknown


WASHINGTON (AP)--Even with a buildup in Iraqi security forces, "It is not possible to know at this time either the duration of the military operations or the scope and duration of the deployment" of U.S. troops, the White House said in a report to Congress that emphasizes the successes of the U.S.-backed coalition in restoring order and security to Iraqis.

<snip>

Under current Pentagon plans, the number of U.S. troops in Iraq is to drop from the current level of 130,000 to about 110,000 by May.

The 16-page report covers the period from Oct. 15 to Dec. 15, shortly after the capture of Saddam Hussein. Under the 2002 congressional resolution giving President George W. Bush the authority to take military action against Iraq, the White House is required to file status reports every 60 days.

The report said there are now 25,000 military personnel from 33 countries helping the U.S. military, and that as of Dec. 8, the various Iraqi security force recruits totaled almost 160,000. These included some 68,000 police on duty, 65,000 people guarding government facilities, 12,000 border guards and a civil defense corps of more than 13,000.

<snip>

It said Iraqi oil production averaged 2.2 million barrels a day during the first week of November, still under the 2.8 million barrels produced before the war. It said exports could reach $1 billion a month by next year if security can be improved along the northern pipeline, plagued so far by sabotage.

<snip>

Dow Jones Newswires
12-23-031447ET
White House: Duration Of Troop Deployment In Iraq Unknown


http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20031223\ACQDJON200312231447DOWJONESDJONLINE000922.htm

[grytpype]

1. Iraq is going to get worse and worse.

There's little doubt that Iraq is eventually going to drag George W. Bush right to the bottom.

This is why: We cannot maintain our current troop levels in Iraq, but in order to succeed we would have to vastly increase our troop levels for an extended period of time. In other words, failure really is inevitable under the Bush Adminstration's policy.

In Spring 2005 we will witness the largest troop rotation in world history as a relief force composed largely of Reserves and National Guard rotates in-country. Those coming home have no guarantee they will be in the States for long -- America is so short of troops that a ceremonial honor guard unit was put into active service.

After the Big Rotation, we will have to choose between further exhausting our military or reducing troop levels. Almost all plans call for reducing troop levels, but it is not at all clear who is going to pick up the slack. As our military becomes increasingly exhausted or withdrawn from Iraq, the security situation in Iraq will get progressively worse. One failure will lead to another in a vicious spiral. The end might be so bad that Bush and the Republican-controlled media will not be able to paint it as a success.

[Old and In the Way]

3. I sincerely doubt their oil revenue projections.

And they are by no means predictable going forward. $12BB/year will mean a net cost of $40BB delta to occupy Iraq annually...minimum.

WH spokesman Natsios said it'd cost us $2BB to conduct this war....that was BS. Why should I belive this oil #? And notice how Russia and Saudi Arabia are not willing to write down the pre-war Iraqi debt? That means we have that financial responsibility as the occupying power. If we don't get offsetting oil revenue, that's another cost out of the US Treasury.

You are right, this is a mess with no easy solutions. We are unwanted in Iraq and our international goodwill is slipping by the minute. The pipedreams of the neocons for their "Pax Americana" are quickly going up in smoke.

Think of the how we could have used this money and troops to really make us secure. And meanwhile, Al Qaeda seems as "undefinable" as ever....what's up with that?

Fight Terror. Vote Democrat.

[revcarol]

2. We've gotta stop comparing this war to Vietnam.

In Vietnam, troops had one year duty, period.

Most of the troops had a poster of a naked woman, divided into 365 parts. As each day passed, that piece was colored in. How're they gonna know how many parts to make this time?

[aquart]

5. How do you divide a woman into 365 parts?

Which part is day 1? Which part is 365? (Oh, let me guess.)

[proud patriot]

4. The troops must be going stir crazy not knowing

Jesus rummy give them a date to look forward to .

[teryang]

6. In Spring- temporary buildup and offensive

...troop departures will be delayed for some period perhaps 6-8 weeks with the arrival of new forces to conduct a super Iron Hammer type offensive to put the insurgents on the defensive before the major withdrawal of American forces rotated out takes place. This will also serve to habituate the incoming forces to the violent techniques to be used against the resistance and the local civilian population.

Nevertheless, the new forces will be more vulnerable after the experienced forces leave when the manpower levels are lowered to a minimal level. For the five months after the propaganda associated with this exercise, the censorship on Iraq will screwed down tighter than ever.

[ScrewyRabbit]

7. They're only now just admitting it

But it was obvious to anyone with half a brain and a reasonably realistic sense of the world that our occupation would be indefinite and on the order of years, if not decades. For many of us that was the primary reason we opposed the war! (long stay = many dead = high cost)

[killbotfactory]

8. Nonsense!

We'll be out of there in a matter of months, just like the administration said. It's just taking longer than expected to shovel the flowers and roses off the streets.

[opihimoimoi]

9. Those Pesky Afghanis out lasted the Brits and the Ruskies, now

they gonna outlast us.

In Iraq, it will be more of the same. Bush guys still want the SHOCK and AWE thingy with firepower and smart bombs, etc. But its the hearts and minds of ALL of the People not just the ones we buy off.

Bush is looking more and more like TOAST

[GRClarkesq]

10. Another danger to the big rotation

is that the experienced troops will be going home to be replaced en masse with new troops without any experience. I would think that you would always want to conduct this type of thing incrementally.

I would expect a rash of fatal "misunderstandings" when the new troops arrive.