LAT: Hurricane expert Mayfield warns of potential disaster (Hurricane chief to leave in a huff)

[Pirate Smile]

Hurricane expert Mayfield warns of potential disaster


Stepping down

MIAMI, Florida -- Frustrated with people and politicians who refuse to listen or learn, National Hurricane Center chief Max Mayfield ends his 34-year government career tomorrow in search of a new platform for getting his unwelcome message: Hurricane Katrina was nothing compared to The Big One yet to come.

Mayfield, 58, leaves his high-profile job with the National Weather Service more convinced than ever that U.S. residents of the Southeast are risking unprecedented tragedy by continuing to build vulnerable homes in the tropical storm zone and failing to plan escape routes.

He pointed to the 7 million coastal residents of southern Florida.

"We're eventually going to get a strong enough storm in a densely populated area to have a major disaster," he said. "I know people don't want to hear this, and I'm generally a very positive person, but we're setting ourselves up for this major disaster."

-snip-
But Mayfield warns that 10 times as many fatalities (as Katrina)could occur in what he sees as an inevitable strike by a killer storm during the current highly active hurricane cycle, which is expected to last another 10 to 20 years.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-hurricane3jan03,0,3253020.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[babylonsister]

1. Mayfield said awhile ago he was leaving, but this is really scary imo.

I wonder what his predictions were for 2006?
I believe there are really huge hurricanes in our future, too.

[aquart]

3. I never used to be scared of the weather, but I am now.

If it happens while Bush is in office, he will leave us to die. Even if it happens later, how will our nation absorb 7 million refugees? Because the danger and the likelihood is that we will lose our coastal cities. Then what?

[babylonsister]

6. I am scared, too. Katrina convinced me totally. And the blivet partied!

He's inept in so many respects, it's sickening he's still in office.
If Max is right, and I think he is, global warming needs to be accepted honestly real soon.

[pitohui]

26. 7 million refugees? is that all? manhattan is a coastal city EOM

,

[aquart]

37. I was figuring a lot of dead.

[pitohui]

25. his predictions were wrong (and dire) for 2006

atlantic storm season was predicted to be a major season equal or worse to 2005 not just by mayfield but by all the "greats" -- instead it was a fizzle

it was a wash-out because the dust storms in africa kept any sizeable storms from building up steam in the first place -- sort of like nature's cloud seeding

later in the season, the el nino formed unexpectedly, which also prevented storms from coming ashore in the atlantic

so for 2006 global warming actually pretty much killed atlantic tropical cyclone formation

it's sort of up in the air what effect, long term, global warming will have on hurricane formation
-- if it makes it harder for them to hit the atlantic coast, as it did in 2006, or if it makes them former bigger and longer-lasting as in 2004 or 2005 -- no one really knows

not mayfield, not grey, not al gore, none of us, nobody knows

the trouble w. global climate change is that the changes can be unpredictable, we're out of the known galaxy at this point


(edited because it pisses me off when i mix up affect and effect)

[Delphinus]

36. This is what's hard for me too, pitohui.

the trouble w. global climate change is that the changes can be unpredictable, we're out of the known galaxy at this point.

How can we plan? For WHAT do we plan?

[illinoisprogressive]

2. People still live in some denial of global warming because it's

an inconvienent truth. And that is the fact. It's not fun to walk when you can ride. Too use fuel saving cars when you can cruise in the biggest 8 mile a gallon guzzler because it is so big, live in the biggest house around with hot tubs and lights everywhere rather than in something a little sensible, waste and spend rather than live like in europe where conserving is part of life, ect.
They want to live on the coast and have mother nature remember it's what they want and to not spoil thier fun. If there is a hurricane, then the hurricane is unfair and being selfish. not the other way around.

[originalpckelly]

17. Mr. Mayfield was not exactly referring to Global Warming...

but a 30 year pattern which appears in meteorological records. I think he SHOULD have mentioned that Global Warming will indeed make this up tick even worse.

We know that humanity has an impact on the environment, and some of it has nothing to do with CO2 levels, but contrails. (No this is not Chemtrails BS. ;-) )

We know from the days after 9/11 that contrails have a fairly significant effect on the difference between hi and low temperatures on a given day. During those days when airplanes were not allowed to fly, the range between the high and low temperatures increased.

That's because water vapor is also is a part of the greenhouse effect. Contrails often spread into large and thin high altitude clouds which keep in the heat of the sun.

At the same time, the sulfur in fuels has been shown to reflect more of the sun's heat back into space.

These are two very unmentioned effects, ones we know from solid data have an impact on the climate.

[kestrel91316]

18. I suspect he's not ALLOWED to address the impact of Global Warming

on hurricane size and damage while he is on the government payroll.............

[Morgana LaFey]

23. Exactly -- and we know that. The tip off in his remarks, btw,

were that "current cycle," which may have some truth to it for all I know, but every weather person I've seen interviewed has used that phrase as a foil instead when asked about global warming.

[pitohui]

28. see post 27

your supposition is incorrect, it is well known that there is a regular cycle in the formation of atlantic tropical storms

[Morgana LaFey]

34. Logic, my man, logic.

There very well may be such a cycle -- BUT i'ts being made worse by global warming. And when everyone who knows anything about the weather (esp. those paid by the anti-science U.S. Govt) brushes off the question about global warming by answering only about this cycle (which is being made worse by global warming), you know there's something going on.

IOW: Yeah, there's this cycle, being made worse by global warming, so much so that we're headed for catastrophic conditions soon, which is why Mays is resigning -- that's the whole reason for the article.

Another way you know there's something going on:

ABC - Government Accused of Censorship Over Global Warming
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2521555#2521756

Climate Expert Says NASA Tried to Silence Him
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2071526

Global warming causing stronger hurricanes
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2172172

Scientists Say They're Being Gagged,White House monitors
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x944623

CNN/Reuters: Experts: Global warming behind 2005 hurricanes
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2247770&mesg_id=2247770

MIT, Purdue Studies Link Warming With Stronger Hurricanes - NYT
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x55535

AFP: Global warming behind disastrous typhoon season in China
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2455514

Top scientist's fears for climate
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2487867

2 protesters climb ledge at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2576336

Kucinich Demands White House Documents On Climate Change
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2185562

[pitohui]

27. the impact of global warming on hurricane formation is unknown

now listen to what i am saying clearly, don't just jump on my ass w.out reading the post -- not that you would, but some posters do, LOL

no one knows the long term effect of global climate change on the atlantic hurricane cycle, NO ONE KNOWS

in 2004 and 2005, it was bad, the higher than normal sea temperatures allowed these repeated and super-sized storms to form, including storms of unprecedented size like katrina, rita, and wilma

in 2006, predicted to be a repeat or worse of 2005, the sandstorms in no. africa prevented storm formation early in the season, the unseasonable el nino prevented storms formed from hitting the atlantic coast late in the season

note that in 2006 the sea temperatures were still well above average but global climate changes actually protected us from storms

we do not know the long term effect that global warming will have on the atlantic hurricane cycle, right now you could pick your evidence either way and claim it could actually stop some storms from forming, or it could actually encourage others to grow larger

as the effect is unknown and not predictable he probably did just as well not to muddy the waters by focusing on it, instead of on the known danger of being at the height of a regularly recurring cycle

[Morgana LaFey]

35. Some scientists seem to disagree with you

See my post, #34.

[Theres-a]

4. When the levees broke

Much of the documentary reveals how inept and unprepared they are,or at the very least,unconcerned...A must watch for anyone living in a hurricane zone.

We are on our own.American citizens being treated like so much cattle.Hell,even the cattle in the recent snowstorm got treated better than gulf coast hurricane survivors.

[fearnobush]

7. Future is here, we are it, we are on our own.

[pitohui]

30. louisiana and mississippi are not unprepared compared to florida and texas

if you think that was bad, think about the reality of evacuating houston, where people couldn't get out and 100-plus people were killed just trying to get them out, and they didn't even get the storm!

i've heard similar horror tales about florida

because of the excellent contra-flow shared by mississippi and louisiana, we did not have the horror stories of people trapped on bridges or roads and left to die when the storm hit

it could have been -- was predicted to be -- much, much worse

[nickyt]

5. I love Mr. Mayfield. His frustration levels must be unbearable.

Hope he finds that "new platform" he needs to get people to listen to him, and I surely send best wishes.

[Bobbieo]

8. It's the hurricanes and rising sea level that makes the East coast

such a vulernable place. In the Southwest and West it is the possbility of earthquakes that have me on edge. We haven't had a big one out here in a long time.

[tblue37]

11. Here in Kansas its tornadoes. (eom)

[bear425]

9. I'm a native Floridian and it took a lot for me to move away.

I just did it and now I've got to get the rest of my family out of there. Perhaps, I'm having a knee-jerk reaction to the previous two hurricane seasons, but I think the inconvenient truth is that I may have made the right move. :(

[VegasWolf]

12. I'm also a native Floridian. I left 30 years ago, go back periodically to see my

family, and never missed for one nanosecond living in Florida. If I want a warm place now, it's the Cayman Islands!

[pitohui]

29. think about the logic of this

you're afraid of getting stuck in florida during a storm but got no problem w. the cayman's which get regularly hammered?

ho-kay, whatever

at least make it an island somewhere south of the hurricane zone, maybe trinidad and tobago (2 island nation offshore venezuela) springs to mind

[VegasWolf]

32. Wow! Do you always misread people's post so badly?????

Who the hell said I was afraid of hurricanes?? I lived with huricanes most of my life. We always held hurricane parties. I got my first kiss and make out sessions when the power went out during a hurricane when all of our neighbors had congreated at our house.

It is the large number of backward people in Florida that bother me. All of my old friends and family have never changed, while I now park my money in the Caymans thanks to living so long in the forward thinking state of California. For those with a little financial sense re tax laws, they understand the Cayman choice. After all, it's not like one will live in the islands during huricance season. Isn't that why god made lots of places for people to live?

[Rage for Order]

10. They'll never listen

People want to live by the beach, even though they know that eventually a hurricane will come along and destoy their home, whether it's in 5 years or 50 years. Well, most people know, but some people think that kind of thing only happens to other people. We'll never be able to stop people from building near the beautiful beaches and warm weather of hurricane-prone areas, just as we'll never be able to stop people from building near fault lines in California. If and when a hurricane comes through and wipes everything out, it will be rebuilt eventually. People like to live near the beach, hurricanes and all.

[Bobbieo]

13. We sold a beach lot in San Felipe, BC several years ago

and I don't regret it, now tho I did when we sold it. More than the huricanes, it is the rising sea level that will devastate the area.

[durtee librul]

14. Even hubby stops talking

when Mr. Mayfield speaks....he knows his stuff and he had said a couple years back what his fears were about NOLA.

[Bobbieo]

15. I believe we are accelerating a normal geologic cycle -

the area where I live was all under a couple of million years ago. When we first moved into out house my husband asked the realtor if there was a sandbox built for the kids in the back yard.

His answer "No, that is the normal soil around here."

[Gman]

16. TWC made him an offer he couldn't refuse

Probably doubled or better his salary.

[MadMaddie]

19. And one more qualified professional pull up stakes from a vital

roll....

The damage of 12 years of Republican rule will be felt for the next 20 years....all Government organizations are devastated by our professional government workers leaving....

This is bad news.......he tried....

[Wednesdays]

20. Indeed, He'll be replaced by a Wingnutcase

who'll tell us and the press whores everything's fine.

The whole government's following Enron's shining example.
:sarcasm:

[SpiralHawk]

22. And the republicon Wingnut will use Faith-Based science to prove...

that hurricanes do not exist, and Jeebus will save us all.

[blogslut]

21. Oh man

Max Mayfield quitting is bad, very bad.

[pitohui]

24. florida and texas can't evacuate their ass out of a bucket

i've said this myself, louisiana/mississippi worked together to create an excellent contra-flow plan which meant that fatalities from katrina were a fraction of what was predicted -- a bit under 2,000 as opposed to the estimated 60,000 from such a storm

rita should have proved to the world that over-populated areas like houston have nary a clue of how to evacuate people safely, if rita had hit houston, i'm sure we would have seen 10s of thousands dead, as it was, with the storm hitting to the east so they were on the favorable western side of the storm, no one in houston died in the storm, but 100-plus (mostly the elderly) were killed on the highway in the screwed-up evacuation

people would have been trapped on bridges and roads during hurricane intensity winds

there is ONE inhabited barrier island in louisiana, grand isle, which has an efficient evacuation plan and which evacuates probably 3-4 times a year in advance of any possible problem, i'm not actually aware of even one person killed on grand isle by katrina, not saying there weren't any, but saying this island is kept at a low population density so everyone can drive out -- a lot of it is vacation "camps" rather than permanent homes, there is a state park, there are industries such as the exxon "fields"

by contrast my understanding is that florida actually permits the construction of entire skyscrapers on barrier islands, no hope of everyone getting out because of the density of the population

my suggestions are that 1) coastal states stop luring old people who are fragile to retire there, because they are at much higher risk of being killed by the evacuation, not just the storm (no more damn nursing homes should be erected in the likes of a st. bernard parish, for example)
2) don't lure tourists to a coastal area during peak hurricane season of mid-august to mid-october
3) no high rise contructions on barrier islands or in already densely populated areas where people might need to be able to drive out of town on 48 hours notice

no one much cares what i think tho, but these suggestions would not be very costly and would get at least some people out of harm's way

it is right and necessary for the coasts to have people living there, the coasts are vital to the economy, but we don't need to have entire nursing homes and retirement communities in exposed areas, that's just freckin' nuts

[demnan]

31. I think of my brother's house in Naples, FL

Flimsy construction, no city water. His place was on the east side of the city, just east of Route 41. But close enough that a full impact from a hurricane would have been a disaster for him. His house was typical of the type of small bungalow that was built about 40 years ago all over Southern Florida.

He sold his place and moved to higher ground, Northern Georgia, last year. And so did many Floridians. There is a mass exit now of people who can see the writing on the wall and are leaving Southern Florida.

[ramapo]

33. Check out the NJ barrier islands

A few blocks wide in places...hasn't been a 'bad' storm in decades.