STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 30

[ozymandius]

Monday October 30, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 812 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2133 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1839 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1800
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 27, 2006

Dow... 12,090.26 -73.40 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq... 2,350.62 -28.48 (-1.20%)
S&P 500... 1,377.34 -11.74 (-0.85%)
Gold future... 601.00 +1.20 (+0.20%)
30-Year Bond 4.80% -0.05 (-0.93%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.68% -0.05 (-0.97%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
A Follow Up on the Oil Sector
Using the Cycle Turn and Trend Indicators

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Roland99]

2. Mornin', Ozy! Here's the first rec of the day

:hi:


How's everyone doing?

I'm off today as I have to take my daughter to the Dr. (pink eye, I think) and thought I'd drop in and say "hey".

Faeries haven't had to shoulder a lot of the burden lately, eh?

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Roland!

and everyone...
:donut: :donut: :donut:
Faeries seem to be caught by surprise by Friday's hit. I am also willing to consider that Friday's losses are within the acceptable parameters.

I'm sorry to hear about your daughter's eye problem. I'm hoping it's just a stye and not an infection in the conjunctiva.

Ozy :hi:

Edit: Please let us know how she's doing.

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. :hi: Roland. Glad to see you drop in today. The 2 things that mean job security for me are pink eye and head lice (boy I know some folks are scratching their heads now). I also thing some parents are glad I have the puberty talk with the kids-I generally get good feed back.

I went down and did the early voting on Sat. I arrived at 8:20 and would you believe that only 2 spots were open. Poll workers said it was steady and heavy all week long. It was the first time that I went to early voting. It was so easy. You don't have to go to your assigned polling place, you just show up anywhere there is an open poll-good because I forgot to change my address :blush: I would recommend it because it frees you up for other election day work.

Don't you LOVE all this happy economic talk...What a maroon.That just rubs more salt in the wounds. Keep it up chuckle nuts.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Roland99]

41. Speaking of voting...check this out

http://www.boonecountyrepublicans.com

Click on Contact Media and notice that first paragraph or so.



See any resemblance to THIS???
http://www.boonecountydems.net/mediacontact


And check out where the page is REALLY hosted!

http://www.mastertechplumbing.com/bcr/

:rofl:

[AnneD]

45. Now aren't they just too slick.....

:rofl:

[Roland99]

39. She's ok but the Dr. did prescribe the drops as it looked close enough to be pink eye

And I get to stay home and play hooky and carve pumpkins and enjoy this sunny 75F weather before it's gone until April!


:D :D

[AnneD]

47. They usually prescribe drops...

on general principal. It just spreads so easily among kids. She'll be able to go back in about 24 hrs so have fun playing hooky. Don't complain too much-you could be paying to heat your house!

[ozymandius]

3. Today's reports

8:30 AM Personal Income Sep
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.3%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Sep
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.1%

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[54anickel]

20. U.S. Consumer Spending, Incomes Rise, Inflation Slows (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avAEAoVMC430&refer=home

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Personal spending in the U.S. rose last month and Americans' incomes increased by the most in three months, suggesting the economy ended the third quarter on stronger footing, a government report showed.

The 0.1 percent rise in spending followed a 0.2 percent increase in August that was stronger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Incomes were up 0.5 percent and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation decelerated.

Job growth and falling fuel prices are helping soften the effects of a slumping housing market that caused the economy to falter last quarter. Continued gains in spending and slowing inflation suggest Fed policy makers can keep holding interest rates steady as their forecast of ``moderate'' economic growth unfolds.

``The consumer is looking reasonably good,'' Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. ``Job and income growth are solid, and the consumer is going to continue spending at a moderate pace.''

Lots more sunshine to blow up your butt......

[ozymandius]

5. Oil prices inch higher

SINGAPORE - Oil prices inched up Monday in the wake of a terror alert in the petroleum-rich Gulf region last week and as traders watched for signs that OPEC nations were following through on announced production cuts.

Light, sweet crude for December rose 7 cents to $60.82 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices rose Friday after a British navy official said that a threat from al-Qaida last month to target Gulf oil terminals had resulted in stepped-up security and vigilance at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal, as well as a refinery in Bahrain.

-cut-

Traders said speculation in the market was that prices would climb in the months ahead, with winter demand for heating oil and natural gas leading the way.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. Why OPEC's decision has yet to make a difference

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- More than a week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it's cutting members' oil production in a move to ease supply levels, prices for crude have barely budged.

Traders had hoped an output cut would remedy the steep drop in prices, which had fallen around 10% from the $66-a-barrel level they stood at when the cartel met on Sept. 11 and left its production quota unchanged.

At best, the latest cut to output has merely helped stabilize prices.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B545C5937%2D328E%2D4477%2DAD52%2D6635B649D946%7D&siteid=

[ozymandius]

7. As wells dry up, Mexico could be forced to privatize oil

MEXICO CITY – Even as popular pressure grows around Latin America for a stronger state hand in developing natural resources such as oil and gas, Mexico's president-elect Felipe Calderón may be forced to consider putting more power in private hands.

The country's flagship oil company Pemex, has been a point of pride since the industry was wrenched from foreign hands and nationalized in 1938. Its revenues alone cover one-third of Mexico's budget.

-cut-

Experts say that American companies are watching oil production in Mexico, but because of politics, cannot interfere by pushing for more foreign participation. If the US needed to purchase oil from more-distant countries, additional transportation costs would be passed onto the consumer, Baker says.

-cut-

Mr. Shields puts it more starkly, saying that allowing international companies back into Mexico is tantamount to letting "the invader back in," he says. "There will be a revolution before there is foreign direct investment."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1027/p01s04-woam.html

[Ghost Dog]

43. "Forced" (or payed?) to bring in US oil companies? WTF

(Something similar happening here in West africa, it appears. Will report... Maybe via Indymedia...)

Jesus. MAry and Joseph.

[UpInArms]

11. BP budget cuts may have contributed to Texas City blast: safety board

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BE589D4E8-CAAF-41B2-AE6B-7D9EB8BE9F87%7D

HOUSTON (MarketWatch) -- Significant budget cuts at BP PLC's (BP) Texas City refinery may have contributed to a major fatal explosion at the refinery in 2005, according to the chairman of the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB).

In the years leading up to the explosion, 25% of fixed costs were cut, CSB Chairman Carolyn Meritt said in an interview broadcast Sunday on television newsmagazine "60 Minutes."

"Our investigation has shown that this was a drastic mistake," she said. The CSB believes that the accident directly resulted from the budget cuts, Meritt said. Previously, the CSB has suggested that BP had ignored maintenance problems with the unit that ultimately led to the explosion, which killed 15 and injured over 170. In Sunday's interview, Meritt took these allegations a step farther, suggesting that BP's shoddy maintenance was part of a wider attempt to cut corners.

"The problems that existed at BP Texas City were neither momentary nor superficial, they ran deep through that operation," she said.

...more...

Profits above everything - until there is not a living soul or planet left.

[Ghost Dog]

36. US criticises Russia-Germany gas deal

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/50e6faec-6779-11db-8ea5-0000779e2340.html

Germany’s big gas pipeline deal with Russia has been criticised by a US official, in a sign of Washington’s mounting unease about Berlin’s ties with Moscow.

In at interview with Financial Times Deutschland, the FT’s sister paper, Matthew Bryza, the US deputy assistant secretary of state for the Caucasus and southern Europe, indicated that the €5bn (£3.4bn) Baltic Sea pipeline would deepen Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.

“That project simply raises the question what diversification means when it comes to gas supply,” Mr Bryza said. “If you live in Germany you do not want to go through what happened last winter with Ukraine  . . . I wonder as a US official how much diversification anybody can develop by having more pipelines into the same supplier.”

Relations between Russia and the United States are at one of their lowest ebbs since the Cold War, partly because of US support for the “colour revolutions” in the former Soviet states of Ukraine and Georgia.

Washington is worried that Angela Merkel, German chancellor, is slipping from her intention to distance the German government more from Moscow than was the case under her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder.

/...

Observing, thanx. Guess I can add here, on (shaky) dial-up. Greetings from off the West coast of Africa... (If possible, more to follow)... :hi:

[54anickel]

37. Hi GD! Nice you could stop by on your travels. Dial up has got to

be a real downer though. :hi:

[Roland99]

40. What, excluding the US from lucrative energy deals???

Terrorist appeasers!!!

[AnneD]

50. Safe journeys

ghost dog.

[54anickel]

51. Oil Prices Slip Below $59 a Barrel

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061030/oil_prices.html?.v=11

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Oil prices fell by 3 percent Monday, slipping below $59 a barrel as traders looked ahead to U.S. supply data due out Wednesday that is expected to show rising inventories of crude.

Doubts about OPEC's ability to implement a 1.2 million barrels a day production cut also weighed on prices.

Last week, oil prices surged after Energy Department data showed a large decline in U.S. crude-oil inventories. But some analysts believe the market overreacted to the data by failing to account for the impact of a temporary shutdown of the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, through which 10 percent of all U.S. oil imports flow.

"Everybody expects a correction this week," said Antoine Halff, an analyst at Fimat USA in New York who warned of the market's misinterpretation of the data in a report last week.

Light sweet crude for December delivery fell $1.99 to $58.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where gasoline futures tumbled by almost 7 cents to $1.49 a gallon. In London, Brent crude fell by $2.01 to $59.07 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil traders are watching to see how quickly the 11 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries move to cut production after announcing that as a group they would reduce output by 1.2 million barrels day.

more...

[ozymandius]

8. Report urges action now on climate

Delaying action on climate change by even a decade or two will take us into "dangerous territory", Sir Nicholas Stern has warned.

His review into the economics of an imbalance of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is described as the most comprehensive ever carried out on this problem.

-cut-

But he concludes that the review is essentially optimistic. There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we act now and act internationally.

He adds: "Government, businesses and individuals all need to work together to respond to the challenge. Strong, deliberate policy choices by governments are essential to motivate change."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uklatest/story/0,,-6180192,00.html

[54anickel]

22. Budgets Falling in Race to Fight Global Warming

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/30/business/worldbusiness/30energy.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=business&adxnnlx=1162217783-1mhs/V0KY5HMsIhhNc2NlA

snip>

Hold the applause. For all the enthusiasm about alternatives to coal and oil, the challenge of limiting emissions of carbon dioxide, which traps heat, will be immense in a world likely to add 2.5 billion people by midcentury, a host of other experts say. Moreover, most of those people will live in countries like China and India, which are just beginning to enjoy an electrified, air-conditioned mobile society.

The challenge is all the more daunting because research into energy technologies by both government and industry has not been rising, but rather falling.

In the United States, annual federal spending for all energy research and development — not just the research aimed at climate-friendly technologies — is less than half what it was a quarter-century ago. It has sunk to $3 billion a year in the current budget from an inflation-adjusted peak of $7.7 billion in 1979, according to several different studies.

Britain, for one, has sounded a loud alarm about the need for prompt action on the climate issue, including more research.

President Bush has sought an increase to $4.2 billion for 2007, but that would still be a small fraction of what most climate and energy experts say would be needed.

Federal spending on medical research, by contrast, has nearly quadrupled, to $28 billion annually, since 1979. Military research has increased 260 percent, and at more than $75 billion a year is 20 times the amount spent on energy research.

more...

[JNelson6563]

9. I hope I find the time

to tune into CNBC today so Steve Liesman can tell me all about how crappy GDP numbers translate into good news. Otherwise I might go through the day believing the bad numbers are actually bad news.

My first meeting of day is in 15 minutes so I gotta dash. I've missed this thread and all the great posters but, in exchange for missing all the SWT fun I think we will be able to claim a state House seat for a Dem for the first time in living memory. Only 8 more days to make it a reality.

Cheers,
Julie

[54anickel]

14. Hey Julie!!! Love your new sig line - Bwahahaha!!!!!!! That's great news

on the House seat. Thanks again for all you do in this revolution! We miss you here though. :grouphug:

[AnneD]

28. Good on ya mate...

you are excused from the SWT until 11/8, but you are expected to make up for all the post you haven't done Missy!
I may be a little light too. Got to turn out the vote.

[ozymandius]

31. Great news Julie!

and thank you!!

I hope lots and lots of Dems are getting their forks ready. Stickin' time is nigh.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.54 Change +0.02 (+0.02%)

Slowdown City for the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Slowdown_City_for_the_Dollar_1162186677764.html

From the lower than expected Existing Home numbers to the dovish Fed Statement midweek to the misses in both Durables Ex-transport and Q3 3 GDP it was hardly a banner week for dollar bulls. Slowdown is here and as we noted on Tuesday, “the cold hard facts are on the side of the euro for the time being. European data including tonight’s IFO readings shows the recovery remains robust allowing ECB to raise rates further without too much protest from EU finance ministers and politicians. On the other hand recent US releases including yesterday’s large decline in Richmond Fed index suggests that the contraction in housing is taking its toll on US economic growth. So far the fall in gasoline prices has simply served as an offset to the drop off in demand from lower house values without spurring further US growth."

The one factor that could reverse the slide in the dollar would be a strong Non-Farm payroll number. Presently the market is handicapping a gain of 125K versus the paltry 51K print from the month prior. Furthermore, traders will want to see an upward revision of September data in order to be convinced of the bounce back scenario. Given the decidedly poor data so far, the chances of an upside surprise in the NFP appear to be slim. However, NFP are notoriously unpredictable and we have long ago stopped trying to forecast them. As for the rst of the calendar it will as serve as preamble to Friday’s report with ISM release being perhaps the most important.



...more...

US Dollar Hits 4 Week Lows, More to Come?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Hits_Four_Week_1161986903053.html

The bad news for US continues to pour in as growth in the third quarter was reported to have been the weakest since March 2003. Even if inflation is still really a problem, economic growth is a bigger one. Over the past few weeks, any good news on the US economy was concealed in the details of the data reports. This week, it was good news that concealed weakness and the bad news that was unarguably bad. This was the case with the GDP report which not only had a disappointing headline print, but also reported a drop in the price index and core PCE. The lower inflation readings validate the Fed’s decision to avoid notching up their concerns about inflation earlier this week and keeps intact speculation for a rate cut early next year. With growth expected to slow in the fourth quarter, the 1.6 percent acceleration in economic activity the last quarter indicates that the economy has not done as well as the market may have anticipated. Therefore even though the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey was revised higher for the month of August, the dollar shrugged off the report as it still remains a question whether this happiness will extend to big ticket purchases. Judging from yesterday’s durable goods orders, this is unlikely as we look forward to more difficult times ahead for the US economy. After 3 days of powerful gains, we caution that the EUR/USD move is looking exhausted. A pullback is possible, but for the most part, the currency pair should hold above 1.2600. The economic calendar next week is just as busy as the past week with Consumer confidence, Chicago PMI, ISM and non-farm payrolls due for release. For the most part, the market is expecting stronger numbers, particularly in confidence and payrolls. Although this may be possible, the economy is more likely to show further weakness than strength.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. SEC probing bond matters at UBS, CSFB -WSJ - bond price manipulation

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-10-30T064609Z_01_N30324897_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-UBS-CSFB.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether UBS AG (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) was involved in improper manipulation of Treasury securities prices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

The Journal also said that a Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) bond trader, Thomas Brown, has left the firm amid regulatory scrutiny, citing people familiar with the matter.

UBS and CSFB could not immediately be reached for comment.

When Treasury notes are in short supply, holders of the securities can profit by using them as collateral for loans in a market called the repurchase, or repo, market. That is the area of the market that regulators are focusing on, the Journal reported.

Officials have been worried about whether hedge funds or other investors were asking brokers to take certain securities off the market to make certain positions more valuable, the Journal reported, citing a senior bond trader.

...more...

[54anickel]

13. Here's a must see - America Freedom to Fascism

I came across this in a post by Hpots in the National Security forum. I just happened to catch the thread on the National ID card from the main Discussion page Latest Threads section. It's just short of 2 hours long, but worth the watch. Discusses the Federal Reserve, the "legality" of income taxes, the "plutocracy", the IRS, and this freakin' National ID that's coming up in 2008. It's a must see!


http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4312730277175242198&hl=en

[54anickel]

18. US National ID Cards by May 2008

http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20editorials/2006%20Opinion%20Editorials/October/29%20o/US%20National%20ID%20Cards%20by%20May%202008%20By%20Nancy%20Levant.htm

At large, the American people are still unaware of the issuance of the Real ID card forthcoming in May of 2008. This new national/international ID card, and its interactivity with national/international databases, can access our medical, financial, driving, Social Security, license(s), firearms registrations, and political status inside its high tech/little nano brain. In essence, it holds our private lives on a swipe-able card that is then privy to any organization, retailer, or person requesting our identification or our money. In other words, our life histories accessible upon command from one 2X3 inch card.

Having no choice but to comply, most American people will accept their new national/international ID card. It is my understanding that without the card, we will be denied bank accounts in the United States of America, a driver’s license, and the right to fly on airplanes unless we have been issued a Real ID card. One might imagine that global retailers might require the Real ID to purchase food and gasoline. Take a look at your current driver’s license. Check the expiration date. 2008 would be a good global guess.

For those of us who have seen United Nations military vehicles in the United States, and who have also noticed convoys of military tanks being transported through the wilderness areas of our nation – the same areas that have been locked down and away from the American people via Biosphere Reserves and conservation corridors - we have realized for a great many years that, as one patriot stated, the “stage was being set” for difficult times on American soil – the key issue that mass media ignores at its professional finest. So, with stages being set, one must also look to the timing of the Real ID card, and to 2008 in general. Let us not forget all the other paramilitary systems in our nation, like the Department of Homeland Security, FEMA, Citizens Corp groups, Neighborhood Watch groups, C.O.P.S. (Community Oriented Policing Services), the militarizing of law enforcement departments, and the many new for-hire corporations that offer private armies with weapons for a price. And then, of course, there are the U.N. peacekeeping forces, which the American military has been actively involved with for many, many decades while, simultaneously and incrementally, our “leaders” have been closing our homeland military bases during these same decades.

The professional timing of the Real ID card in 2008, and its mandatory issuance, brings to mind several forthcoming coincidences and issues. The collecting and databasing of all personal information of every American adult – coinciding with the CFR’s North American Community – and all global government infrastructures in place and play, one must consider the following:

more...


And it's not just the US. Nigeria, the UK, the UAE....Do "the google" http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=National+ID+card

[Systematic Chaos]

34. I've known about this stuff for years.

I had the good fortune of meeting a man some time ago who is a Christian in the real sense of the word and not a fundamentalist. He is also an extreme libertarian with views that are center-left and he values personal freedom over all else. He showed me in no uncertain terms just how blind the average person is to the ways in which they are taken advantage of which are totally illegal and unconstitutional, but we just accept it because it's drilled into us from birth. I really have to wonder if there is any way to avert what will be coming in 2008, if not sooner. Let's hope that we can. :(

[54anickel]

44. Yeah, we bring it up here occassionally. Though the "banker types"

that used to hang out with us would like to argue about it. :evilgrin: Been letting Mogambo be the main carrier for this sort of information. Wouldn't want the SMW to be considered a bunch of :tinfoilhat:

[AnneD]

48. Dang...

you mean I cleaned up my :tinfoilhat: for nothing. Can I sell my extra pastic sheeting and duct tape here or do I need to go through eBay.:evilgrin:

[54anickel]

53. Oh man, ya gotta always keep the tinfoil handy around these parts.

Truth is stranger than fiction.

You may as well just hang onto the plastic sheeting and duct tape - there's still no market for it , even on eBay. Seems there's still an over saturation in the market place. :P

[54anickel]

15. Look at those futures try to claw to the water line. Good to see gold

holding up against the onslaught so far this AM.

[54anickel]

16. Restructuring the U.S. economy - downward

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=59718

snip>

Finally, the greatest boom in American housing history is going bust. The impact on the economy has only just begun to be felt. Demand for homes is sharply down, while the number of vacant dwellings is ballooning - up more than 40% for existing homes and more than 20% for new homes year over year. At issue now is the severity of the impending bubble aftermath.

It does not seem, though, that there is a lot of worrying around. There appears to be a widespread belief that the U.S. economy is now out of trouble because the Fed decided not to raise interest rates. We presume the following interpretation:

1. This is not just a pause, but the end of all rate hikes.

2. In the absence of an overheating economy, inflation is yesterday’s issue.

3. Steady or lower interest rates will boost the stock market.

4. As the Fed no longer tightens, the possibility of a hard landing can be dismissed.

5. Abundant liquidity continues to underpin the markets.

Treating bad economic news as good for the financial markets, Wall Street is running wild with more aggressive speculation. “The world economy is on track to grow at a 5.1% rate this year, but the risk of a severe global slowdown in 2007 is stronger than at any time since the September 2001 terror attacks on the United States,” said the International Monetary Fund in a report to finance ministers, mentioning two possible triggers: a sharp slowdown in the U.S. housing market or surging inflationary expectations that would force central banks to raise interest rates.

Taking this forecast into account, the sudden plunge of commodity prices may not be totally surprising. On the other hand, prices of risky assets and mortgage-backed securities have, despite the obvious problems in U.S. housing and consumer finance, held steady. Stock prices of U.S. lenders up to their necks in subprime, interest-only and negative-amortizing mortgages have been rising 5-10% since late August. Since hitting bottom in June, emerging stock markets have rebounded 20%. Developed international markets have risen by 12%, and U.S. stock markets by around 8%. A vertical slide by the yen since May suggests that yen carry trade is back with a vengeance.

Given the growing talk of impending recession in the United States, all this may appear rather surprising. The underlying rationale seems to be the assumption that this recession will be just another soft patch forcing the Fed to what the speculative community likes most: a return to easier money.

more...

[54anickel]

17. U.S. Data Fluke Exaggerated Growth, Will Be Reversed (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alZ83kYOa2IA&refer=home

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- An unexpected increase in auto production last quarter was a statistical fluke that will be reversed, making current U.S. economic growth even weaker, according to a former Commerce Department economist.

Last quarter's annualized 26 percent increase in motor vehicle production shocked Joe Carson, now director of economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. Without the gain, the economy would have grown at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, not the 1.6 percent the Commerce Department reported today.

The reported increase in output came despite cutbacks announced by General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and others. A drop in the wholesale price of SUVs and light trucks as the automakers cleared leftover 2006 models made production look stronger than it actually was, said Carson. The economic fallout from the auto-industry cutbacks will instead come this quarter, he said.

snip>

Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, called the numbers ``the most unbelievable detail'' in the GDP report. Stanley didn't lower his estimate for fourth-quarter growth because, while auto production will probably drop next quarter, other areas such as investment in aircraft and defense spending will probably rebound, he said.

The surprise for Stanley wasn't in the price component. It was that even before adjusting for inflation, the figures showed an increase that doesn't jibe with the numbers from the manufacturers, he said.

more...

[54anickel]

19. Investors’ surprise

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

Dow 12,000 is so last week. Who cares about 30 stodgy companies, none with the foresight to acquire YouTube? Buy and hold? More like buy and mold. At last check, 20 of the 30 Dow stocks were below where they were trading back when the index peaked in January 2000. No wonder investors continue to pile into hedge funds where they can get some real action. Oh sure, a hedge fund may buy a Dow stock or two, but only the quaintest would do so without tying the purchase to some spiffy relative value arbitrage strategy.

Perhaps because hedge fund investing, and talking about hedge fund investing at cocktail parties, is such an adrenaline rush, investors threw a world record $44 billion at hedge fund managers in third quarter, according to the number crunchers at Hedge Fund Research. That slug of dough brought total hedge fund assets to $1.3 trillion.... snip>....

Venture capital funds are another investment genre with so much money to spend they can barely get the doors shut at night without hundred dollar bills leaking into the hallway. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, venture capitalists have spent $19.2 billion this year, and there’s no telling how much is still sitting around in desk drawers, waiting to be spent. Still, when it comes to spending, the VC crowd is on pace to break the record they set back in 2001.

Investors are just as anxious to put their money with VC funds as the VC capitalists are to spend it. And the sexier the industry the better. According to the Chronicle, the category that has attracted the most funding year to date is biotechnology (motto: “As much fun as online gambling, but legal!”). This is the first year that biotech has been the most popular of all the VC categories, but this could turn into a long term trend once they start cloning their own investors.

Of course, not everyone has the money or the inclination to put their money with a hedge or venture capital fund. Yet many still want the thrill of not knowing how their money is being invested. Luckily, there are an increasing number of “blank check IPOs” coming to market to meet that need. A blank check company is one with no operations, but instead raises money through an initial public offering. Blank check deals are also called special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs. The idea is that once the SPAC raises the money, it will run out and buy a company with real operations. In theory, the acquired company will gin up enough profits to justify the offering price of the stock. According to Bloomberg, blank check IPOs raised $2.2 billion through early September, with more than $4 billion in new issues in the planning stages.

more...

[54anickel]

21. Global Cash Glut Fuels Investment Frenzy, Pushing Up Rates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=azWr55nygFyE&refer=us

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Markets around the world are awash in excess cash, fueling a frenzy of investment from London to Tokyo that may lead central banks to push interest rates higher than investors now anticipate.

Money remains cheaper than in the 1990s even after every major central bank raised rates this year, the first simultaneous tightening since 2000. The cash glut is reheating the U.K. housing market, while in Japan companies plan the most investment since 1990. China's biggest bank this month attracted orders for more than half a trillion dollars with its initial public offering of shares.

``Interest rates in the main economies have still not been raised enough,'' says Tim Congdon, visiting fellow at the London School of Economics and one of the ``wise men'' who advised the U.K. Treasury in the 1990s. ``There is a buoyancy in asset prices one gets with high-risk monetary growth.''

Without further tightening, central bankers may have new asset bubbles and inflation risks on their hands. The European Central Bank, whose officials voice the most concern, is convening a conference in Frankfurt next week on the role of money growth in guiding interest rate policy. Among participants: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata.

snip>

Revival of Monetarism

Other central banks including the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are starting to share the ECB's view on money growth. That's a shift from a few years ago, when following money supply was deemed a relic of the 1970s. ``There is something of a revival of monetarism,'' says Stephen Jen, London-based head of global currency research at Morgan Stanley.

One central bank that isn't joining is the Federal Reserve, which no longer sets a target for monetary growth and stopped publishing one measure of money supply in March.

``In the U.S., looking at monetary aggregates has gone out of fashion,'' says Jim O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities Llc in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The Fed responds to the effects of asset prices, not to the prices themselves.''

more...

[Ghost Dog]

38. Global competition sparks spending spree

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2e966372-6771-11db-8ea5-0000779e2340.html

Large companies are pouring money into research and development at an unprecedented rate, in response to growing global competition. The international R&D Scoreboard, published on Monday, shows a 7 per cent increase in spending by the world’s top 1,250 companies.

“In many sectors profits are growing strongly and companies can afford to spend more on R&D,” says Norman Price, an industrialist at the UK Department of Trade and Industry, which publishes the annual scoreboard. “Where profits are weak, such as the automotive industry, the competition is so fierce that companies dare not cut their investment.”

But the scoreboard – the world’s most comprehensive R&D ranking – provides little reassurance for European policymakers who are concerned about Europe’s poor long-term R&D performance. European companies spent 5.6 per cent more in 2005-6 than the average of the previous four years. The comparable increase for US companies was 15.4 per cent.

The most spectacular growth is in Asia. The 44 Taiwanese companies in the scoreboard increased their R&D investment by 30.5 per cent last year, while the 17 South Korean companies posted 11.9 per cent R&D investment growth.

While Taiwanese R&D is spread among a number of electronics and computer companies, the Korean scoreboard is dominated by three fast-growing giants: Samsung and LG in electronics, and Hyundai in cars.

Samsung’s R&D spending has grown to $5.44bn (€4.3bn, £2.9bn) from $1.88bn over the past four years. “The way Samsung has poured resources into R&D has had an impact elsewhere in the electronics industry, with other companies increasing spending so as not to be left behind,” says Mr Price.

But R&D growth in Japan remains modest – a continuing legacy of the country’s long period of economic stagnation. Japanese companies raised spending by 4 per cent in 2005-6 and their investment was only 5.9 per cent above the average of the previous four years.

The most striking sectoral change in the scoreboard since its inauguration in 1992 has been the rise in pharmaceuticals, which provided no companies among the top 20 R&D spenders 14 years ago and has six entries now. In contrast, the telecoms and chemicals industries, each of which had two top-20 companies in 1992, have none now.

/...

[54anickel]

23. US chiefs’ pay outstrips returns

You need a subscription for the whole article, but the teaser snippet is all I need to know - Bastards!!! :grr:

https://registration.ft.com/registration/barrier?referer=&location=http%3A//www.ft.com/cms/s/eb8eea44-677b-11db-8ea5-0000779e2340.html

The pay packages of US chief executives are rising faster than corporate earnings and shareholder returns in a sign that corporate America is failing to link executive compensation to performance, a Financial Times study has found.

The results of the survey, which looked at total compensation of chief executives of companies in the S&P 500 index over the past two years, will add weight to calls by corporate governance activists for more shareholder and board oversight of executive pay.

[54anickel]

52. CEO pay seen outpacing investor returns

Median salary package at S&P 500 firms jumped 20% last year, suggesting it's not performance but what peers get that determines compensation, paper reports. Duh, No sh*t - haven't we been sating that all along. They pad their resumes and play leap frog. Meanwhile the corps and board talk about how they have to be able to attract the best and brightest....Whatever. :eyes:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/30/news/companies/ceo_returns/index.htm?postversion=2006103009

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The pay packages of U.S. chief executives are outpacing investor returns, suggesting that their compensation is not based on performance, according to a report published Monday.

The survey conducted and reported by the Financial Times, which looked at compensation of chief executives of companies in the S&P 500 index, revealed that the median compensation for a CEO rose 20 percent to $5 million during the last fiscal year.

That tops both the net profit and shareholder returns of those same companies, which rose 15 percent and 9 percent respectively, according to the paper.

"The reality is that this is a false market driven not by appreciation in the share price and earnings but by what other chief executives are getting," Charles Elson, director of the Weinberg Center for corporate governance at the University of Delaware, told the Times.

Experts told the paper that the survey, which looked at the salary, bonuses and options exercised by chief executives over the past two years, also indicates that their compensation packages are increasing at a much faster pace than the pay of the average worker.

more...

[54anickel]

24. Dodging Taxes Is a New Stock Options Scheme

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/30/business/30option.html?ref=business

In the latest twist in the stock options game, some executives may have changed the so-called exercise date — the date options can be converted to stock — to avoid paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in income tax, federal investigators say.

That appears to be what happened at Symbol Technologies and Mercury Interactive, and federal securities regulators are now sifting through options data at other companies for evidence of similar tax-avoidance schemes.

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s stock options inquiry has so far focused on the practice of pushing back the grant date on stock options, which can guarantee profits when the grants are exercised. Its interest in exercise dates may signal an emerging front in its widening investigation into stock option abuses at more than 100 companies, from Silicon Valley start-ups to well-known giants like Apple Computer and UnitedHealth Group. The Justice Department and the Internal Revenue Service are separately examining dozens of companies.

As those cases have progressed, at least 46 executives and directors have been ousted from their positions. Companies have taken charges totaling $5.3 billion to account for the impact of improper grants, according to Glass Lewis & Company, a research firm that advises big investors on shareholder issues.

And further investigations, indictments and restatements are expected. Securities regulators are now focusing on several cases where it appears the exercise dates of the options were backdated, according to a senior S.E.C. enforcement official, who asked not to be identified because of the agency’s policy of not commenting on active cases. Besides raising disclosure and accounting problems, backdating an exercise date can result in tax fraud.

more...

[54anickel]

25. Chinese growth: Japan overtaken, U.S.A. next

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips102906.html

Since the entry of the U.S.A into World War II the U.S. has been the most powerful nation on earth. But how long will this continue. As another piece on the changing shape of the global economy we show how China's growth has moved even faster than we thought it would.

In this piece we will describe just how far China has come and how dependent on China the $' strength really is becoming. Yes, China needs a strong $, or it will endanger the value of its reserves, whose real value currently lies in its buying power in the world, not its exchange rate value to the Yuan. Is there an 'unholy alliance' between the U.S. and China over their investment of trade surpluses back into the U.S.$?

In terms of the U.S.$, China is passing the U.K. at the moment, as we said in our last piece, but in terms of Purchasing Power Parity China has already passed Japan and is well on its way to equaling the U.S.A.

During the past five years America has accounted for only 13% of global real GDP growth, using purchasing-power parity (PPP) weights. The real driver of the world economy has been Asia, which has accounted for over half of the world's growth since 2001. Even in current $ terms, rather than PPP, Asia's 21% contribution to the increase in world G.D.P. exceeded America's 19%. But current $ figures understate Asia's weight in the world, because in China and other poor countries things like housing and domestic services are much cheaper than in rich countries, so a $ of spending buys a lot more. If you want to compare consumer spending across countries, it therefore makes more sense to convert local currency spending into the $ using P.P.P.' rather than market exchange rates.

Asia is running a combined current-account surplus of over $400 billion, implying that it is contributing much more to world supply than to demand. If America's demand stumbles, the growth in Asia's exports and output would also plunge, so the story goes, but is this true?

more...

[54anickel]

26. The Crimes of Greed vs. the Crimes of Government

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts10262006.html

During my professional lifetime, liberals and the left-wing have focused on failures and misdeeds of the private sector, while libertarians and conservatives have focused on the failures and misdeeds of the public sector or government. It turns out that both sides are right.

The Enron case and the other accounting scandals of this new century are testimony to misdeeds driven by private sector greed, just as the unjustifiable war in Iraq is testimony to the abusive behavior of government.

Justice demands that we be always on guard against a prosecutor's case. However, the devastation wrought by fraud committed by a few at the top of Enron seems real. Thousands of employees lost jobs and pensions, and shareholders took a large hit.

We now know that fraud on the part of the Bush administration launched the ill-fated Iraqi war. The war's financial and human cost dwarf the Enron catastrophe. The out-of-pocket cost of the war to date is $337 billion, with steep future costs for veterans' care and replacement of military equipment. Approximately 3,000 US troops have been killed, and Department of Veterans Affairs documents show that 100,000 veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan have been granted disability compensation. Estimates of Iraqi civilian "collateral damage" range from 30,000 to 655,000 deaths. America's reputation has been shattered, and the prospects for terrorist "blow-back" are higher.

The most important difference between these two fraud cases, however, is in accountability. The Enron executives have been brought to justice with prison sentences, multi-million dollar fines, and, in one case, by death from a heart attack brought on, perhaps, by the stress of prosecution.

Even if the Bush administration and the rubber-stamp Congress are held accountable in next month's election, the ringleaders of the war are unlikely to be brought to justice. Polls indicate that the November election--if votes are honestly counted, an uncertainty with the electronic voting machines--will hold Bush and the Republicans accountable by ending one-party rule.

more...

[54anickel]

29. The Daily Pfennig 10/27/06: Greenspan Is Still Crazy...

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1031

snip>

Yesterday, we saw some additional dollar selling, and it wasn't from any data... The dollar was sold after some comments by Big Al Greenspan... That's right, the former Fed Chairman is still crazy after all these years... No wait, what I mean to say is that he can still move the markets... Let's go to the tape and listen in on what he had to say...

"Central Banks around the world and private investors are beginning to shift holdings from the dollar to the euro..." Greenspan went further to say that "the move is due to a desire to diversify after a concentration of global investment in U.S. assets." But here's the one line that just cracked me up! "The Trade and Budget Deficits aren't a problem...

Hmmmm... First of all it sure sounded to me, and I guess the markets too, that Big Al was playing out a fantasy of directing the dollar... That's the job of the Treasury Dept... Not the Fed... But Big Al isn't either now... But he sure directed the dollar yesterday, eh? You know... Big Al just cracks me up... Here he is, the creator of all this mess, and now he decides to throw gas on the fire with talk about Central Banks diversifying out of dollars and into euros...

snip>

Yesterday, New Home Sales in the U.S. rose 5.3%... Sounds pretty good, eh? Doesn't sound like a problem in the Housing Sector, does it? Ahhh, grasshopper, every rose has its thorn... And the thorn in this case is the fact that these houses sold because the prices of those houses plunged 9.7 percent last month, compared with September 2005, the biggest such drop since December 1970. OUCH! That thorn sure does hurt!

Today, the trading in currencies will be dominated by the printing of the 3rd QTR GDP in the U.S. The experts have GDP only posting a figure of 2.0%... That's not very good, not for the U.S., not for the world's economic engine! I would say that if GDP does have a better showing than 2%, then the dollar will finish the week on a strong note... If it is bang on the experts forecast, we'll end the week with a weaker dollar.

[ozymandius]

30. lunchtime check-in

12:06
Dow 12,083.93 Down 6.33 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,357.07 Up 6.45 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,377.26 Down 0.08 (0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.679% Up 0.004
NYSE Volume 983,898,000
Nasdaq Volume 803,672,000

[54anickel]

32. Seems the blatherers are at a loss for words today. Found this...

Dow Down, Nasdaq Up in Midday Trading

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061030/wall_street.html?.v=17

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fluctuated Monday as investors tried to assess the health of the economy following a lackluster sales report from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and news of weak consumer spending last month.

Wal-Mart's disappointing sales added to concerns that arose Friday with the report that the country's economy, as measured by gross domestic product, was estimated to have risen a lower-than-expected 1.6 percent in the third quarter. That sent stocks sliding at the end of a week in which the Dow Jones industrial average had set new closing records for four straight sessions.

Building on investors' economic concerns, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose an anemic 0.1 percent in September, the smallest increase in 10 months. Personal income, however, was up 0.5 percent. Hopes for a strong holiday season have driven up shares of retailers and stocks overall in recent months.

"Personal spending was less than expected but then personal income was better than expected," said Stuart Freeman, chief equity strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons. He contends investors will grapple with sometimes negative and seemingly contradictory economic data as they try to determine whether the economy will pull off a soft landing after the Federal Reserve's 17 straight interest rate increases that ended in July.

In midday trading, the Dow was down 5.93, or 0.05 percent, at 12,084.33, having changed directions several times during the session.

more...

[54anickel]

33. UPDATE 4-Gold jumps to seven-week high above $610

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=MTFH01396_2006-10-30_15-59-02_L30148432

LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Gold jumped to a seven-week high above $610 an ounce on Monday as a break of key resistance around $607/$608 triggered fresh buying after an earlier boost from a weaker dollar, traders said.

Spot gold <XAU=> was quoted at $607.60/$608.60 an ounce by 1545 GMT, compared with $598.20/$599.70 late in New York on Friday. Earlier on Monday it hit a session peak of $610.50, the highest since September 8.

"There was some technical buying that pushed it up ... But that was followed by a large sell order and it is struggling to stay up now," a trader said. "The dollar has recovered a little, but it is still weak and that helps gold."

Unexpectedly soft economic growth data from the United States has weighed on the dollar since Friday. The weaker dollar prompted investors to pile into gold, seen as a safe haven against economic turmoil.

more...

[54anickel]

35. Teenager Steals Bus, Picks Up Passengers, And Pockets The Cash

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7005344750

Fern Park, FL (AHN) - A 15-year-old boy was arrested after he stole a bus and began driving a route and collecting fares from passengers along a public transit route on Saturday. Authorities said the boy was arrested during incident.

The teenager, Ritchie Calvin Davis, drove the bus from the Central Florida Fairgrounds in Orlando, where it was pending an auction sale. The bus is owned by Central Florida Transportation Agency.

Davis told the deputies who arrested him at the scene: "I drove that bus better than most of the LYNX drivers could," adding, "There isn't a scratch on it. I know how to start it, drive it, lower it, raise it."

The 15-year-old observed the required speeds and all the stops along the route. One of the passengers, however, suspicious Davis' boyish looks and dialed 911. The teenager had two passengers on board when deputies pulled him over; 12 miles from his departure point.

more... His 2nd time doing it!

[AnneD]

55. Ya just gotta luv it....

he probably was driving better. He should be give probation and his community service should be either training on the bus or with meals on wheels. The kid is now legendary in his High School.

[54anickel]

42. OT - Evangelical-GOP Alliance Weakens

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/29/AR2006102900300.html

-- Of the many disturbing trends for Republicans this campaign season, one of the most troubling is the drop in support among white evangelicals.

The number of conservative Christians with a favorable view of the party has plummeted from 74 percent to 54 percent between 2004 and this year, according to the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. Evangelicals comprise more than one-third of GOP voters.

snip>

The complaints are familiar. Through every Republican victory since the Moral Majority was formed in 1979, abortion remained legal, gay couples won greater acceptance and prayer was still barred from public schools.

In 1999, Cal Thomas and Ed Dobson, both veterans of the Moral Majority, examined these failures in their book "Blinded by Might," and concluded that politics was too corrupt to be used to spread Christian morality in America. A few other evangelicals suggested conservative Christians withdraw from politics and focus instead on faith.

The retreat never happened. Between 1999 and 2004, the share of white evangelicals identifying themselves as Republican grew from 39 percent to 49 percent, the Pew Center found.

more...


Ahhh, and I see many of my former business associates from WA state are coming around as well.

Liberal Republican Suburb Turns Furious With G.O.P.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2586609

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/30/us/politics/30voices.html?pagewanted=1

BELLEVUE, Wash., Oct. 24 — The M.B.A.’s have had it. The engineers are fuming.

For as long as anyone here can remember, Bellevue has been a stronghold of socially liberal Republicanism. First, it was a prosperous Seattle bedroom community, then a technological boomtown, where employees of Microsoft and Internet start-ups consistently voted for fiscal restraint and hands-off government.

But now, voters here are accusing the party in power of overspending and overreaching — and when they do, they sound like people who write manifestos, not software code.

snip>

“I am a Republican and have traditionally voted that way,” Tony Schuler, an operations services manager at Microsoft with a Harvard M.B.A., said as he sat with his wife, Deanna, in their home above Lake Sammamish. But Mr. Schuler abhors what he sees as a new Republican habit of meddling in private affairs.

“The Schiavo case. Tapping people without a warrant. Whether or not people are gay,” he said. “Let people be free! It’s not government’s job to interfere with those things.”

In Bellevue, the professional is political. Rather than religion or culture, what unites the diverse population — a quarter of residents are foreign born — are the values of their workplaces: technological innovation, accuracy, efficiency.

more...

[54anickel]

46. 2:22 and things are lookin'up! There's even blather again.

Dow 12,113.79 UP 23.53 (0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,369.74 UP 19.12 (0.81%)
S&P 500 1,380.66 UP 3.32 (0.24%)
10-yr Bond 4.6770% UP 0.0020
30-yr Bond 4.7920% DOWN 0.0040
NYSE Volume 1,531,246,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,259,880,000

2:00 pm : Stocks are extending their reach to the upside as oil prices slip further in the other direction. Crude oil futures are now down 3.8% at session lows near $58.40/bbl; but the Energy sector is only down 0.6%. To wit, Exxon Mobil (XOM 71.41 -0.05) is basically unchanged, and therein lies much of the reason the sector is not down much more than it is since XOM accounts for more than one third of the total weighting in Energy. DJ30 +22.41 NASDAQ +17.78 SP500 +3.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1316/1638/1.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1480/1761/842 mln

1:30 pm : The blue chip indices regain some upside traction since the last update, but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings. While the Dow and S&P 500 are now in positive territory for the session, it is also worth noting that midterm election year Octobers remain the best months of the year for both, according to the Stock Traders Almanac. Also playing true to trend, since October is typically a common month to look for beaten-down technology stocks, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is pacing the way higher today and for the month. Technology is also today's best performing sector (+0.8%) as growing signs that seasonal demand in the second half of the year will track normal growth trends continue to support our Overweight rating on tech.DJ30 +3.44 NASDAQ +10.66 SP500 +1.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1511/1413/1.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1641/1572/774 mln

1:00 pm : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers and decliners on the NYSE remain evenly matched while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold a slim a 15-to-13 margin over advancing issues. Below average volume further echoes the lack of conviction on the part of either buyers or sellers. DJ30 -3.84 NASDAQ +4.91 SP500 -0.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1573/1318/946 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1599/1502/708 mln

12:30 pm : Indices are back to trading in mixed fashion as Tech relinquishes some of its intraday gains. While Energy remains the biggest drag among today's lagging sectors, it has been accompanied to the downside by Health Care -- the third most heavily weighted of all 10 sectors. The sector's worst performer is Tenet Healthcare (THC 7.46 -0.84), which is down 10% after saying it now expects a wider than expected loss for Q3. Also weighing on the sector is Humana (HUM 62.10 -3.60), which more than tripled Q3 profits but is down more than 5% after earnings missed analysts' forecasts. DJ30 -9.45 NASDAQ +2.83 SP500 -0.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1498/1377/860 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1595/1550/648 mln

12:00 pm : The indices remain positive midday but gains remain modest at best as investors weigh benign inflation data and plunging oil prices against anemic sales guidance from Wal-Mart (WMT 49.39 -1.34) and concerns the market is overbought at current levels.

Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that the core-PCE deflator rose just 0.2% in September, matching forecasts to leave the year/year rate at 2.4%. While that is still a bit higher than policy makers would like, the Fed's favored inflation gauge is now below the 11-year high of 2.5% registered a month earlier, curbing concerns of an uptrend. A 3.2% sell-off in oil removing some of the commodity's potential inflationary characteristics, without sacrificing too much in the way of Energy leadership, is also offering some relief for the bulls trying to get the rally back on track.

Meanwhile, Wal-Mart warning that October same-store sales are expected to be up just 0.5% -- the weakest gain in almost six years and well below original forecasts calling for 2.0-4.0% growth, has left some questioning the health of the consumer heading into the all-important holiday season. While we believe Wal-Mart's woes to more of a company-specific issue than an economy-wide concern, such a disappointment is providing an excuse to lock in some profits following five straight weeks of gains. As a reminder, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 3.5%, 3.1% and 4.1%, respectively, this month alone.

Fortunately for the bulls, the five sectors trading higher are also among the most influential. To wit, Technology is pacing the way higher, as analyst upgrades on Yahoo! (YHOO 26.14 +0.80) and KLA-Tencor (KLAC 49.72 +1.53) help to offset a 3.5% decline in Verizon Communications (VZ 37.47 -1.37), the Dow's worst performing component today. Verizon topped Wall Street forecasts; however, the company noting that spending on fiber initiatives may hurt the bottom line has prompted investors to consolidate some of the stock's 35% year-to-date advance.

Industrials is also providing notable leadership after American Power Conversion (APCC 29.83 +6.07) agreed to be acquired for about $6.1 bln. L-3 Communications (LLL 81.38 +2.70) surging 3.4% after reportedly saying it is open to takeover approaches and an analyst upgrade on Lockheed Martin (LMT 86.91 +2.30) are providing additional sector support. DJ30 +1.12 NASDAQ +7.75 SP500 +0.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1442/1426/770 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1561/1547/574 mln

http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update

[54anickel]

49. The Bear’s Lair: Trading in intellect

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

In a world in which information is an increasingly important commodity and intellect is the principal means of producing such information, David Ricardo’s 1817 Doctrine of Comparative Advantage may no longer be valid. However the theory that free trade enriches all participants, central to modern globalization, depends crucially on Ricardo, with protectionists being denounced (sometimes correctly) by professional economists as economic illiterates. What then is an economically literate framework for trade in a post-Ricardo world?

In his 1990 paper “Endogenous Technological Change” economist Paul Romer showed that economic growth is caused primarily by the spread and interaction of information, some but not all of which is “excludable” in that others can be prevented from using it once it’s created. As an instance of information-driven technological change, he instanced Francis Cabot Lowell’s 1811 industrial espionage on British power looms, through which he created the U.S. textile industry.

From the Lowell example, it is immediately clear where the Doctrine of Comparative Advantage falls down. Under the Doctrine, if the United States is able to produce textiles more cheaply than Britain because of its more advantageous factor costs, then the U.S. should specialize in textiles and Britain in other goods and this will be advantageous for both sides. However Lowell’s industrial espionage demonstrated a flaw in this argument: if British technological superiority consists of knowledge of how to run a textile mill, and can be suborned by an American spy, then the transfer of textile manufacture to the United States was disadvantageous to Britain. It produced new competition which drove down prices, removed the U.S. market (Lowell was instrumental in getting an 85% tariff enacted against imports of British textiles in 1816) and was highly damaging to British living standards. By the process of technological piracy, the factors of comparative advantage were changed in the U.S. favor, with no compensating advantage to Britain.

The British government of 1810, economically highly literate, understood this well, and had legislation making it illegal to steal or even export British trade secrets. (This had been introduced following the case of Samuel Slater, a supervisor in Jedediah Strutt’s mill who had emigrated to the United States in 1789 with valuable spinning technology.) Lowell, had he been caught, would have been hanged – you could be hanged at that time for stealing property of five shillings in value, and the secret of mechanized textile manufacture was clearly worth a lot more than five shillings. Only later did Britain slip to a policy of wishy-washy unilateral free trade and lose its industrial dominance.

For the 19th and most of the 20th Century, the intellectual property exception to the Doctrine didn’t much matter. Most internationally traded goods were things you could drop on your foot. Intellectual property could mostly be protected with patents, and when it couldn’t, it often formed only a small part of the value chain, so that mass production, mass marketing and distribution were also necessary to succeed. A Lowell who in 1912 had stolen the secret of the self starter from General Motors’ Charles Kettering would have found himself owning the plans to a sub-assembly in a complex piece of equipment and needing to put together a large plant and sales force, with a market largely limited to GM and its immediate competitors. Thus if GM outsourced self-starter assembly to Mexico it knew what it was outsourcing; there was no chance that Mexico would swarm up the value chain and start manufacturing completed Buicks.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Gotta head out for a bit - dog beautification day here. It's a nice day so

may as well squeeze in a haircut for the beast while I can still do it out in the garage. Messy job!!! Gotta spruce him up for company coming at Thanksgiving.

See ya later. :hi:

[AnneD]

56. Good idea...

Maybe I should spruce up the West Highland Terror. The mut has short hair but could use a bath.

[54anickel]

57. Well, we're down to just the legs and belly. Gotta wait for hubby to

come home to help hold him down. He was a pretty good boy through it all though. Better than usual. He's so dang cute! I'll try and post a pic of him later or in tomorrow's thread.

[54anickel]

58. Stock Market Rally Doesn't Slow Buybacks

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/8099347/c_8099675?f=home_todayinfinance

Healthy stock gains did not deter Dow, ITT, Goodrich, and others from repurchasing shares.

Stephen Taub, CFO.com
October 30, 2006

Although stocks have been on a tear of late, the run-up doesn't appear to have discouraged companies from repurchasing their shares. In the past week alone, several large and small companies announced significant stock buybacks.

Dow Chemical, for example, said its board of directors approved a new program to repurchase $2 billion of its stock. The program will begin once the current repurchase authorization — announced in July 2005 and now more than 70 percent complete — is concluded, the company added. "Dow stock represents exceptional value and this repurchase program underscores the board's confidence that the company's strategy will continue to generate strong levels of cash flow," said Andrew Liveris, Dow's chairman and chief executive officer, in a statement. Dow's stock currently trades in the middle of its 52-week price range.

ITT announced that its board authorized the repurchase of up to $1 billion of stock. The buyback will occur over a period of up to three years, the company added. "This share repurchase program is consistent with ITT's commitment to a balanced and disciplined capital allocation process," said George E. Minnich, senior vice president and chief financial officer, in a statement.

The program replaces the company's current practice, which has been to cover the shares granted or exercised in the context of ITT's performance-incentive plans, it explained. Year-to-date through September 30, ITT repurchased 2.5 million shares for $136.4 million. There is no guarantee as to the exact number of shares to be repurchased, and the company has reserved the right to terminate the repurchase program at any time, it added.

more...

[54anickel]

59. Closing time

Dow 12,086.50 DOWN 3.76 (0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,363.77 UP 13.15 (0.56%)
S&P 500 1,377.93 UP 0.59 (0.04%)
10-yr Bond 4.6730% DOWN 0.0020
30-yr Bond 4.7860% DOWN 0.0100
NYSE Volume 2,209,673,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,773,326,000

4:20 pm : The major averages closed mixed Monday, as the day's action was more reminiscent of portfolio rebalancing than anything else. To wit, even though the Nasdaq is outpacing gains on the Dow and S&P 500 this month, as it did again today, the tech-heavy Composite still trails the blue chip indices' year-to-date performances.

Thus, playing true to trend, with October being a common month to scoop up beaten-down tech names, Technology turned in the day's best performance. In fact, an upgrade from Merrill Lynch on one of the sector's worst performers -- Yahoo! (YHOO 25.95 +0.61) -- helped get the ball rolling during what was shaping up to be another day of broad-based consolidation. As of Friday's close, Yahoo! was down 35% year to date and hit a 52-week low on October 20, presenting an opportunity for bargain hunters looking to capitalize on underappreciated stocks positioned to benefit from a seasonally strong holiday season, which supports our Overweight rating on tech.

An analyst upgrade on KLA-Tencor (KLAC 49.39 +1.20) renewed enthusiasm for depressed semiconductor stocks and also helped to offset a 3.0% decline in Verizon Communications (VZ 37.67 -1.17), the Dow's worst performing component Monday. Verizon topped Wall Street forecasts; but, the company saying that spending on fiber initiatives may hurt the bottom line prompted investors to consolidate some of the stock's 35% year-to-date advance and rotate money out of this year's best performing sector -- Telecom -- and into this year's worst performer -- Tech.

Another sector experiencing a similar extraction of investment dollars was Energy, this year's second best performing sector, as oil prices plummeted. Crude for December delivery fell nearly 4% to $58.36/bbl amid expectations that inventories remain well supplied, especially with warmer than expected weather conditions reducing demand for distillates like heating oil.

Meanwhile, Wal-Mart (WMT 49.48 -1.25) warned that October same-store sales are expected to be up just 0.5% -- the weakest gain in almost six years and well below original forecasts calling for 2.0-4.0% growth. That left some questioning the health of the consumer heading into the all-important holiday season. However, the growing realization that Wal-Mart's woes appear to be more of a company-specific issue than an economy-wide concern left the rest of the retail group free to take advantage of oil's decline and diminishing prospects of the commodity's potential inflationary characteristics.

With regard to inflation, the Commerce Dept. before the market opened showed that the core-PCE deflator rose 0.2% in September, matching economists' forecasts to leave the year/year rate at 2.4%. While that is still a bit higher than policy makers would like, the Fed's favored inflation gauge now below the 11-year high of 2.5% registered a month earlier helped to curb concerns of an uptrend. Overall, though, it was actually a neutral factor for the financial markets. BTK -0.2% DJ30 -3.76 DJTA +0.8% DJUA -0.1% DOT +0.9% NASDAQ +13.15 NQ100 +0.6% R2K +0.5% SOX +1.1% SP400 +0.2% SP500 +0.59 XOI -1.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1409/1647/1.68 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1552/1721/1.30 bln

3:30 pm : Sellers return from the sidelines going into the close, leaving the blue chip indices in jeopardy of closing higher and paring the Nasdaq's leading intraday gains. Whether the S&P 500 holds onto today's gain or not, though, is not as crucial from a psychological standpoint as it would be for the S&P 500 to close higher for the week. Such an advance, no matter how small, would extend the S&P 500's winning streak to six weeks, the longest rally since September 2004. If the Dow finishes above 12,163.66, which at this point does not appear likely, it would be its 14th record close in 20 sessions.DJ30 +1.92 NASDAQ +11.54 SP500 +0.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1315/1697/1.46 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1414/1838/1.12 bln

3:00 pm : Equities are holding steady at improved levels as the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. Trucking continues to turn in the day's best performance (+2.6%), getting a big boost from a 4.0% decline in oil prices. Human Resources (+2.4%) has been another bright spot as investors applaud the resignation of Monster Worldwide (MNST 41.45 +1.16) founder Andrew McKelvey amid an ongoing stock options probe. Apparel & Accessories (+2.4%), Industrial Gases (+2.1%), and Electrical Components & Equipment (+2.1%) round out today's top five performing S&P industry groups.DJ30 +20.05 NASDAQ +17.67 SP500 +2.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1308/1688/1.35 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1395/1858/1.02 bln

2:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the Nasdaq continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts to the upside. The Tech sector is now up more than 1.0% to pace the way among the six sectors now trading higher; but tech's 5.7% year-to-date advance still leaves it as this year's poorest performer. Thus, it can be argued that some of the money flowing into tech today is coming in the form of sector rotation out of Energy and Telecom, which are today's worst performing sectors but have enjoyed this year's best returns.DJ30 +21.29 NASDAQ +18.71 SOX +1.3% SP500 +3.25 XOI -1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1261/1701/1.25 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1422/1825/936 mln

2:00 pm : Stocks are extending their reach to the upside as oil prices slip further in the other direction. Crude oil futures are now down 3.8% at session lows near $58.40/bbl; but the Energy sector is only down 0.6%. To wit, Exxon Mobil (XOM 71.41 -0.05) is basically unchanged, and therein lies much of the reason the sector is not down much more than it is since XOM accounts for more than one third of the total weighting in Energy. DJ30 +22.41 NASDAQ +17.78 SP500 +3.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1316/1638/1.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1480/1761/842 mln

Have a great evening! :hi: