Poll finds Casey's lead falling

[Desperadoe]

U.S. SEN. Rick Santorum has slashed Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr.'s once- double-digit lead and is now just 6 percentage points back, according to the latest Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll.

"Everybody expected this race to tighten. Nobody expected it to tighten this quickly," said G. Terry Madonna, professor of public affairs at Franklin & Marshall College and director of the poll.

The survey of 578 registered voters conducted last week showed state treasurer Casey, who is expected to easily win the Democratic primary, as the choice of 47 percent to 41 percent for Santorum.

The margin of error for the poll was 4.1 percent.<snip>

http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/14495983.htm

[SteppingRazor]

1. Still not at all worried...

If an incumbent is behind in the polls be even one point, he's screwed

[OKNancy]

11. thank you for a concise, level-headed response

:thumbsup:

[SteppingRazor]

33. Eh, I try.

:evilgrin:

[movonne]

38. When I see that people that were way behind in polls are gaining

(repugs) I keep thinking that they are setting us up for another diebold win...If they were behind a lot then it would be impossible to say they won, but if just a few point between them diebold can make a win for the repugs.

[SteppingRazor]

39. So you're suggesting that...

Not only do Republicans control the election machines, but they also control all of the polling companies?

[SoCalDem]

42. Of course..This has been the norm for a long time

Every election season,as it gets closer to the date, the polls "move"..Not a lot, just enough so that when the results are announced, people will say.. "Well, the polls DID say that so-and-so was gaining, making progress, movin up, too close to call, within the margin of error",etc..

But when there ARE exit polls, they indicate nothing of the sort..

Think Geoegia '02.18181

[Mr_Spock]

2. Thanks for the good news

:(

[BrklynLiberal]

3. Who was the Dem contender that was dumped in favor of Casey?

[still_one]

10. I don't remember his name, but he was pro-choice

[Freddie Stubbs]

12. HER name was Barbara Hafer

Former State Treasurer, former state Auditor General, just switched parties a few years ago after it became apperent that she was not going to get the GOP nomination for governor.

[Todd B]

14. Chuck Pennacchio

http://www.chuck2006.com/

It's a shame more people aren't backing him instead of Bob Casey.

[still_one]

19. It is a shame that in a state where spector is pro-choice

the only candidate the DNC would support was an anti-abortion democrat

I am sorry but to me a woman's right to choose should be a primary part of the Democratic platform, and they shy away from it

If we win in 2006 it will be in spite of the DNC and DLC, and mostly because the repukes have screwed up so badly

[Atman]

4. Of course. It's all going according to plan.

All the key GOP races will go this way...poll numbers for the challenged GOPpers will inexplicably improve to within the MOE. I say "inexplicably," because what has Santorum done to warrant such a turnaround? If anything, his numbers should be sliding along with the general GOP numbers. I've little doubt that these numbers are pure bullshit, and just a precursor to a 2006 theft of the votes via Diebold.

[Karenca]

5. Agree..............nt

[Mandate My Ass]

6. True

But Casey is anti-choice, pro-Iraq war, pro-Alito, and pro-nuking Iran, so it won't be that big a deal if Santorum does benefit from voting machine fraud. :shrug:

[DavidMS]

41. Even so...

He still will vote for a Democratic majority leader. All things being equal a DINO is better than a 'sane' Republican.

Casey will vote for Democratic Organization of the Senate. And will never have much of a chance in a Democratic controlled senate to do much except posture on Abortion.

[AndyA]

8. You said it. Santorum has done nothing that could possibly improve his

numbers, so why the sudden increase? If anything, they should be going down. I think the poll numbers are fixed, just like the voting has been fixed.

We need election reform.

[Ilsa]

16. I think the only thing is that he's been on tv more lately.

Santorum :spank: has been on the national networks yaking about gas prices, etc. I think that might account for a few points, just from the exposure.

But I have no doubt that there is a plan to move him within the MOE so they can try to get through a stealing of an election with less suspicion.

[OregonBlue]

21. That's my take also. If the polls can make it look close, they can

justify stealing the vote!!

[Webster Green]

9. Yep!...our elections, like our government.....just a massive hoax.

No way Santorum's poll numbers should be improving right now.

[yellowcanine]

7. Could just be a Santorum "dead cat bounce." The good thing about

a bouncing dead cat is that it is really dead - no more lives left.

"e's not dead, e's just resting! Lovely plumage!"

[corkhead]

18. yow. the visual, and the reference...

:toast:

[Arugula Latte]

37. Pinin' for the Fjords, 'e is!

:toast:

[bluestateguy]

13. Oh, Bowl Shit

Sometimes a fluke poll comes out that is off the radar screen. This one is it.

What a waste of time.

[Josh]

15. Rasmussen has it back out to 13 for Casey

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20April.htm

And his polls tend to tilt more the GOP - he's the only poll that has Bush at 40%

[skipos]

20. Yes. This poll seems like an outlier to me.

I remember right before the election of 04, Fox News had a list of how they thought states would go (for Kerry or Bush) based on numerous polls. They had my state of MI going for Bush and I couldn't believe it. I googled all the MI polls, and it turns out only one had it going for Bush (I think it was the Detroit Free Press), and of course THAT is what Fox News based their call on.

[Warpy]

17. That's what they get for running an anti choicer

If you think women are going to vote for him, you're nuts.

Not this time.

The party can't win without its base and the party can't win without its women.

It's time for party conservatives to wake up or get the hell out of the way.

[still_one]

22. Its funny that the party line seems to run away from that issue

they sure didn't emphasis it in 2000, and very little in 2004

It used to be a fundamental part of the Democratic party, a woman's right to choose. The country hasn't changed that much, they are still for choice. The Terry Shivo(sic) incident should have told us something. Just because it is reported a certain way in the media does NOT mean that is the way people feel about something

[bleedingheart]

31. check out the Casey web site...he completely ignores women's issues

and the war....I guess if they ignore it ..they think it will go away...

here is his "issues" page....funny...no mention of the War...or Women...

http://www.bobcaseyforpa.com/issues.html

[dsc]

40. Yeah women don't give a damn about these issues

Casey has a record of being a fiscal watchdog in government and holding state agencies accountable for spending tax dollars responsibly. He will bring this same resolve to Washington and return fiscal responsibility to the federal government to reduce the record deficits we now face.

Bob Casey has stood up for our seniors as Auditor General and successfully fought to improve the Health Department's response to complaints about life-threatening abuse and neglect in nursing homes. He will continue to fight for our seniors in Washington.

Bob Casey has led the fight to improve the quality of child care in Pennsylvania and make it more affordable for low-income working mothers. And his performance audits helped save money for our schools. He will continue to fight for our children and for public education as a U.S. Senator.

Just who do you think populates nursing homes and are low income mothers?

[still_one]

44. I have a problem with someone who isn't pro-choice

that USED TO BE A DEMOCRATIC ISSUE

I wonder what his position would be on Stem Cell research?

On the other hand I am not from Pennsylvania so it is up to the people of that state. I am from California, and we have other issues

[still_one]

43. that is my dissapointment with obama, and the Democratic machine

they refuse to go back to their roots

The illegal war is extremely important, and so are woman's rights

[bleedingheart]

29. I am voting for Chuck Pennacchio in the Primary...for this very reason

Casey is anti-choice, pro-Alito, and just A-Okay with "staying the course" in Iraq....

[skipos]

23. I know some DUers like being defeatists but

our dem candidate is "only" beating an incumbent by 6%? This is probably the most favorable poll I have seen for Santorum and he is losing by 6%?

Yeah, lets wave the white flag on this one, it's over. :sarcasm:

[NavyDavy]

25. I agree with you....ever time a piece of bad and sometimes

even good news comes out we have the chicken littles running around our party is falling our party is falling....

[goclark]

24. They are making it tighter now for DIEBOLD later nt

[rodeodance]

26. not good--i want to see him hanging out on a clothes line!

[bleedingheart]

27. There are many sides to this story potentially....

1. Casey hasn't been doing much that I can see...so if his poll numbers are down but still ahead of Santorum...that is may be okay given the fact that Casey is just sitting still.

2. It could be bad...as people figure out that Casey is an anti-choice, pro war democrat, and would have voted for Alito...well they may be figuring that they could be better off at home in Nov..and not at the polls.

3. Santorum is trying really hard to spiff up his image for folks..it isn't working but it is his standard type of run....he will spend all his money after the primary date on making himself look like Nice Guy...instead of the pRick he is...

[Efilroft Sul]

28. I still don't think Casey will beat Santorum.

And I don't base this opinion on the Franklin & Marshall poll, either. I've been saying this all along.

Casey doesn't have the fire in his belly. He's not a clear communicator (my one friend on the inside thinks he's just plain dumb), and on the rare occasion Casey actually makes his opinion known, he reveals himself to be Republican Lite. If it weren't for his last name, he wouldn't be the Democratic front runner, and I think he has the same sense of entitlement as W does just because both of their fathers established/perpetuated the families' names in politics.

I'm sure all of us on DU can't stand Santorum, but Pennsylvania voters, especially those in the "T" (and increasingly in Pittsburgh) will align themselves behind someone with a more forceful, simpler message like Santorum's -- even if what Ricky Boy is saying is absolutely wrong for the commonwealth and America. That's the way it is with Republicans, and don't think Santorum doesn't know it. Casey has yet to deliver a resonating message as to why he's the better choice.

Sure, sure, Casey's keeping his powder dry. We've all heard how the Dems are doing that, and look how successful that strategy has proven. But if Casey can't articulate why he's The Man, Santorum won't even need Diebold come November.

[bleedingheart]

30. You know when I tell people that ...they think I am nuts but I am with you

Casey has no "fire in his belly"...he is just a flat candidate who is repub-lite...

who are you backing in the primary????

[Efilroft Sul]

32. Pennacchio.

Chuck will probably lose (I'm being a realist here, darn it), and I'll have to resort to holding my nose voting for Casey in the fall.

Santorum's got to go, but if a Senator Casey doesn't get on board with progressive ideals, the Dems have got to find a candidate for the 2012 primary to run against him. (Possible monkeywrench: Toomey as the progressive's opposition in the general election. At this point, the wingnuts are crazy about Toomey, and he'd probably beat both Casey and Santorum if there were a three-way race this November.)

[bleedingheart]

34. that is my action plan...Pennacchio in the Primary and I will

vote straight ticket in November...

I am also voting for Valerie McDonald Roberts in the Primary!

Toomey is one scary dude...

[Efilroft Sul]

35. We're of like minds.

Valerie McDonald Roberts is a very smart woman. She is a great choice for Pennsylvania.

Toomey, eh, his march to power will be a goosestep.

Great site you have for Westmoreland Dems. I grew up in Monessen and was lucky enough to escape it.

[bleedingheart]

36. thanks for the compliment.....the group in Westmoreland works hard

and we hope to continue to grow and fill out all the committee slots that have remained vacant for so long...

[Lugnut]

45. Same here

That's my plan as well. Zogby's polling shows that Chuck can beat Santorum so why is the PA Democratic party machine shoving Casey down our throats?

[dusty64]

46. I don't get this at

all. I suspect it is bullshit.